November 28th, 2010
by deaconcat08

Every year since 1998, I have sat down on either the Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving and drafted a set of bowl projections for the upcoming college football postseason.  Unlike those analysts who make bowl projections on a weekly basis throughout the season I prefer to put all my efforts towards one set of thoroughly scrutinized picks.  I try to do a decent amount of research before making these predictions, and then as the actual pairings are announced, I analyze the accuracy of my picks in three different ways.  I calculate the  percentage of teams I correctly predicted to go bowling, the percentage of slots predicted correctly (ex: having the right SEC team in the Outback Bowl), and the percentage of total bowls correctly predicted (ex: having the correct matchup in the Outback Bowl).  My best marks in each category are: 100% of teams correctly predicted (2006), 57.4% of slots correctly predicted (2008), and 36% of bowl correctly predicted (2000). 

I obviously had to work off a few assumptions/predictions about next week’s games in order to make these.  First of all, I’m predicting Oregon, Auburn, Nebraska, West Virginia, USF, and Virginia Tech to win their games next Satuday.  All of those games will shape the BCS picture, so if one or more of these team loses, then were will obviously be some modifications to the BCS bowls as well as some smaller bowls.  Furthermore, I am assuming that the only current bowl bubble team, Washington (see entry below for complete list), will win next week to advance to a bowl game.  If the Huskies lose, then Western Michigan will likely take their spot in a bowl game.  The Broncos are currently the only bowl eligible team that I see getting left out of the bowl picture.  Here are the picks, as well as some commentary about each.  Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Date Bowl Teams   Time Channel
           
Dec. 18 New Mexico Fresno State Toledo 2:00 ESPN
Dec. 18 Humanitarian Ohio Boise State 5:30 ESPN
Dec. 18 New Orleans FIU East Carolina 9:00 ESPN
Dec. 21 St. Petersburg Southern Miss USF 8:00 ESPN
Dec. 22 Las Vegas Utah Temple 8:00 ESPN
Dec. 23 Poinsettia Navy San Diego St. 8:00 ESPN
Dec. 24 Hawaii Hawaii Tulsa 8:00 ESPN
Dec. 26 Little Caesars NIU Army 8:30 ESPN
Dec. 27 Independence BYU Maryland 5:00 ESPN 2
Dec. 28 Champs Sports Notre Dame Miami-FL 6:30 ESPN
Dec. 28 Insight Iowa Texas A & M 10:00 ESPN
Dec. 29 Military  UTEP Boston College 2:30 ESPN
Dec. 29 Texas Michigan Texas Tech 6:00 ESPN 
Dec. 29 Alamo Arizona Oklahoma St. 9:15 ESPN
Dec. 30 Armed Forces Air Force SMU 12:00 ESPN
Dec. 30 Pinstripe Syracuse Baylor 3:20 ESPN
Dec. 30 Music City UNC Tennessee 6:40 ESPN
Dec. 30 Holiday Washington Missouri 10:00 ESPN
Dec. 31 Meineke Car Care Pittsburgh Clemson 12:00 ESPN
Dec. 31 Sun NC State Louisville 2:00 CBS
Dec. 31 Liberty UCF Georgia 3:30 ESPN
Dec. 31 Chick-fil-a Florida State Miss. State 7:30 ESPN
Jan. 1 Ticketcity Northwestern Kansas State 12:00 ESPNU
Jan. 1 Capital One Michigan State LSU 1:00 ESPN
Jan. 1 Outback Penn State South Carolina 1:00 ABC
Jan. 1 Gator Illinois Florida 1:30 ESPN 2
Jan. 1 Rose TCU Wisconsin 5:00 ESPN
Jan. 1 Fiesta Nebraska West Virginia 8:30 ESPN
Jan. 3 Orange Virginia Tech Stanford 8:30 Fox
Jan. 4 Sugar Arkansas Ohio State 8:30 ESPN
Jan. 6 Godaddy.com Troy Miami-OH 8:00 ESPN
Jan. 7 Cotton Oklahoma Alabama 8:00 Fox
Jan. 8 BBVA Compass UConn Kentucky 12:00 ESPN
Jan. 9 Kraft Fight Hunder Nevada Georgia Tech 9:00 ESPN
Jan. 10 National Title Game Auburn Oregon 8:30 ESPN
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Posted in National Collegiate Athletic Association | Comments (4)

4 Responses to “Brad’s 2010 College Football Bowl Projections”

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