November 28th, 2010
by deaconcat08

2010 Bowl Eligibility Analysis

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the second-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has in actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligibility.  As of now, there are 21 teams on the list with 7 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 14 predicted to fall short.  The italicized games are ones in which a team can clinch bowl eligibility.  The underlined games are ones in which a team must win to keep their bowl hopes alive.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids

Washington- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 33%, 30%, 34%); Remaining Schedule: at Wazzou

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays

Middle Tennessee State- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 56%, 37%, 38%); Remaining Schedule: at FIU

Louisiana Tech- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 40%, 41%, 42%); Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada

Oregon State- Record: 5-6; Odds of bowl eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 49%, 11%, 24%); Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon

Bubble watch teams who have now clinched bowl eligibility: Miami-OH (previous odds: 92%), East Carolina (previous odds: 72%), Kentucky (previous odds: 61%), South Florida (previous odds: 66%), West Virginia (previous odds: 98%), Army (previous odds: 46%), Syracuse (previous odds: 67%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 95%, 94%), Brigham Young (68%, 93%), Clemson (previous odds: 85%, 82%), Pitt (previous odds: 96%, 77%), UConn (previous odds: 42%, 73%), Notre Dame (previous odds: 44%, 72%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 76%, 70%), Boston College (previous odds: 51%, 68%), SMU (previous odds: 64%, 63%), Illinois (previous odds: 81%, 52%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 27%, 38%, 51%), Louisville (previous odds: 59%, 54%, 45%), Tennessee (previous odds: 56%, 65%, 75%), Troy (previous odds: 97%, 91%, 86%), FIU (previous odds: 32%, 59%, 64%), Georgia (previous odds: 60%, 58%, 57%)

Bubble watch teams who are now out of bowl contention:  UAB (previous odds: 36%), Duke (previous odds: 20%), Kansas (previous odds: 5%), Iowa State (previous odds: 52%, 39%), Marshall (previous odds: 31%, 35%), Kent State (previous odds: 43%, 34%), Purdue (previous odds: 38%, 28%), Tulane (previous odds: 9%, 27%), Ole Miss (previous odds: 39%, 26%), Virginia (previous odds: 30%, 23%), Indiana (previous odds: 35%, 22%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 47%, 12%), Utah State (previous odds: 6%, 7%), Texas (previous odds: 53%, 43%, 44%), Rutgers (previous odds: 55%, 44%, 32%), Colorado (previous odds: 14%, 17%, 29%), UCLA (previous odds: 37%, 36%, 23%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 29%, 16%, 27%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 62%, 61%, 70%), California (previous odds: 57%, 60%, 59%), Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 18%, 19%, 22%), Houston (previous odds: 58%, 42%, 33%), Idaho (previous odds: 34%, 33%, 43%)

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