Earlier this week, I provided some thoughts on what the New York Yankees should look to do in order to improve this offseason. Next up is the Yankees’ bitter American League East rival, the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox were the favorites to land slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira for much of last winter. The Yankees came in to win the Teixeira sweepstakes at the last minute, though, and general manager Theo Epstein instead chose to go the low-risk, medium-reward route with a number of free agent signings. Epstein went dumpster diving with bargain pickups such as Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and John Smoltz, in addition to trading Coco Crisp for reliever Ramon Ramirez.

While Penny and Smoltz ended up with different organizations at the end of the season, Boston yet again turned in an impressive campaign. The club won 95 games in the majors’ premier division, easily winning the American League Wild Card. Being swept by the Los Angeles Angels in the Division Series wasn’t what Red Sox nation had in mind at the finish, but Epstein built a solid roster that put his team in a chance to contend in a ridiculously competitive division. Boston simply lost to an inferior team in a small sample size, again showing how much random variance can play in a short series.

Similar to the Yankees, the Red Sox don’t have many major holes to fill on the open market or through trades. The most pertinent issue that Epstein must address, of course, is determining who will play left field for the Boston in 2010. According to Jon Heyman, the incumbent Jason Bay rejected the team’s initial four-year, $60-M offer today. The news was hardly surprising. Bay has waited a long time to become a free agent and he would be crazy not to see what the market will be like for his services. Clearly, that doesn’t mean that a return to New England is out of the question, as both the player and team seem to share a mutual interest.

However, Matt Holliday is the best overall left fielder available in free agency and would be a better fit for what the Red Sox need. Many in the statistical community were surprised to learn that Epstein, given his reputation as being a statistical savvy GM, would offer so much money to Bay, who has graded out statistically as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors since 2007. As I wrote about last week, perhaps Epstein is feigning his interest in Bay, and, knowing that the outfielder would reject the initial offer, simply attempting to gain leverage in the negotiations for Holliday by putting his eggs in more than one basket. There’s no way in knowing that for sure, of course, but it would surprise me to see Boston invest that much more money into Bay than what they initially offered.

When it comes to pure offense, Bay is the better hitter. The 30-year-old slugger has posted a career line of .280/.376/.519 with a 131 OPS+ while averaging 33 home runs and 107 RBIs over 162 games in seven major league seasons. I wrote about how consistent of an offensive performer he has been over the weekend:

According to his FanGraphs page, Bay has graded out 182.1 runs above average during his career. His ’07 campaign was the only year in which he did not produce at least 32.0 runs above average, and that was clearly an aberration.

Hitting is only one part of baseball, though, and Bay has other deficiencies. Most notably, he has graded out well below-average statistically in left field. As Keith Law notes, many feel that the Green Monster can wreak havoc on defensive data, but it is hard to overlook that he has graded out at least -11.5 runs below average every season since ’07 and has only produced a UZR total in the black on one occasion since 2004. During that time span overall, he has been worth -51.2 runs with his glove. While there are still issues with UZR, he’s a slightly below average defender at best and is unlikely to improve as he ages. As a result, odds are he will end up as a designated hitter before the end of his next contract.

Given the level of consistent offensive production that Bay provides, I wouldn’t be that opposed to the Red Sox, or any A.L. franchise, making a large investment in the All-Star outfielder. If he continues to produce so many runs with his bat, he will be a valuable, three-win-level player and a potent bat in the middle of the Red Sox’s lineup. Given the lack of defensive value, though, there’s more downside risk with Bay should he fall off the map offensively. Epstein could definitely do a whole lot worse than bringing him back—and the signing would be met with a warm reception by the local media and casual Red Sox fans who appreciate his ability to drive in runs—but, if they do splurge to fill this position, Holliday, even if a bit more expensive, would be the wiser investment.

It was a tale of two seasons for Holliday, who was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Oakland Athletics last December. He got off to a miserable start in Oakland, going homerless for much of April as numerous stories were written about how he was previously a product of Coors Field. He rebounded a bit and ended up posting a solid line of .286/.378/.454 with 11 homers and a 120 OPS+ with the A’s while playing in a home hitting environment that suppressed output for right-handed hitters. Billy Beane then dealt him to the St. Louis Cardinals for a package led by third base prospect Brett Wallace in July. He enjoyed a renaissance in his return to the National League, slashing .353/.419/.604 with 13 home runs, 55 RBIs and a 168 OPS+ with the Cardinals.

Many still express concerns that Holliday won’t be the same player in the American League, pointing to the struggles in Oakland. While accounting for a drop off due to signing with a team in the superior A.L. is necessary (especially if he ends up in the East), the 93-game sample in a pitcher’s park in Oakland is too small to read too much into it. Of course, he’s not the same hitter going forward that he was in St. Louis, or Colorado, but it would be foolish to simply discount his stellar offensive performances completely. During his career, he has produced an incredible 180.3 runs above average and a .400 wOBA. He has country strong power (.227 career Isolated Power) and solid on-base skills (9.1 career BB%). He’s a fine base runner, too, and would be a nice fit hitting at Fenway Park.

Plus, according to the statistics, Holliday is the better defensive left fielder. Sure, he made a monumental error in the Division Series, losing a ball in the sun and having it hit off his, well, cup. Many scouts also cringe when watching him play left field, claiming that he takes awkward routes to balls and that his defense isn’t pleasing on the eyes. According to UZR, however, he has been one of the most productive defenders at the position since 2007, grading out 29.0 runs above average. As an assistant GM points out in this Jerry Crasnick piece, generally the truth lies somewhere in the middle if scouts strongly agree with defensive data. Thus, he’s probably not as talented in the field as the numbers suggest but still considerably better than Bay.

Here are the two players’ UZR totals from ’07 through ’09, respectively:

Bay: -11.5, -18.4, -13.0 Holliday, 14.2, 9.1, 5.7

Due to the defensive disparity, Holliday has a considerable lead in three-year Wins Above Replacement as well:

Bay: 0.1, 2.9, 3.5 Holliday, 7.9, 6.2, 5.7

Assuming that Bay is a little bit better in the field than UZR gives him credit for and that Holliday gets too much of a boost, the gap is still too large to change the outcome. Scott Boras is going to get a huge contract for his prized client, Holliday, so the savings might make Bay the better option. If it were up to me, though, Holliday would be the free agent I would make a hard push for.

Epstein acquired Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins on November 5 in another buy-low move. Hermida, the former top prospect, provides depth at the position should the team fail to sign either Bay or Holliday for some reason. Given his poor defense and declining offensive numbers, though, he really isn’t someone the Red Sox should be comfortable with giving an everyday job, even as a platoon player against right-handed pitching, to considering their playoff aspirations next season. Also, he could always be flipped this winter to address another need, since he’s a defensive liability and not an ideal fourth outfielder. Internal options such as Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick are still a year away from really making a contribution and would be exposed as rookies if given extended playing time. Thus, getting one of the two free agents inked is a priority, as there’s a considerable drop off in the talent level of free agent outfielders outside of Bay, Holliday and Mike Cameron, who I wrote would be a good match with the Yankees.

Cameron could really work as a capable option for the Red Sox on a one-year deal as well, providing outstanding defense in left field and decent offensive production. Plus, signing him would be relatively low risk, as the team wouldn’t be tied up with a major financial commitment at the position well into the next decade. As I wrote in the Yankees piece, the free agent class of 2011 is going to be much stronger, so perhaps waiting that extra year, giving their prospects another year of development time, and then seeing what the market is like next winter would be a sound strategy.

After all, the Tampa Bay Rays’ Carl Crawford, among other stars, becomes a free agent then; plus, while trading to a division rival could prevent this from happening, he will likely be shopped by Tampa Bay before the trade deadline should the team fall out of contention. Getting a player like Cameron would allow them to see how the market shakes out when the supply of premium talent on the open market is greater. According to UZR, Cameron is a much better defensive player than the club’s current center fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury. However, it would be unlikely that the Red Sox would move Ellsbury off the position. For one, the front office believes that he’s much better than the numbers suggest; the team’s internal metrics and scouts all have Ellsbury as above average. More importantly, his bat doesn’t play nearly as well on a corner. In signing Cameron to play left field, the team would essentially be adopting a three center field model; J.D. Drew offers plus defense on the other corner. Converting balls hit into play into outs was a major issue for Boston in ’09, so keeping defense in mind in addressing the opening in left field is important, and that model could work.*

If the team does sign Cameron or Holliday, it will be interesting to see how UZR treats them. The only two fielders to get significant time dealing with the Monster since advanced defensive data became available back in 2002 are Bay and Manny Ramirez, two below-average defenders who would likely be in the red in any park.

Signing Holliday is the best bet, but missing out on him if Boras’ asking price is too high will not be the end of the world. Dave Cameron recently argued that Cameron is better than Bay, straight up, so getting him in a one-year situation could prove to be a shrewd move. Addressing left field is the main priority facing Epstein, but there are several other areas where the team could improve. Check back for part two, where I discuss these areas the Red Sox should focus on this winter, including shortstop.

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Glad to see the voters get it right today. San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum was undoubtedly the most dominant pitcher in the National League this season. I wrote about why I thought Lincecum deserved to win the award a few weeks ago.

The Cardinals have an excellent chance of having a pitcher take home this award. Chris Carpenter came back from injury to put up another fine season. Carpenter went 17-4 while posting a league-best 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. New Hampshire’s prized son won his second Comeback Player of the Year award and was a major reason why the Cardinals are headed back to the postseason.

And Adam Wainwright was also damn good. Wainwright led the league with 19 wins, paced the circuit with 233.0 innings pitched and struck out 212. Combined, the pair formed one of the best 1-2 duos in the N.L.

However, Carpenter (5.6) and Wainwright (5.7) actually rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in WAR for National League pitchers. Here are the top four:

Lincecum: 8.2

Javier Vazquez (guy gets no run support or love, by the way): 6.6

Dan Haren: 6.0

Ubaldo Jimenez (can’t wait to watch this guy in the playoffs): 5.8

Joel Pineiro is actually not too far off the pace in WAR from Carpenter and Wainwright. Another pitcher to improve considerably after switching to the inferior Senior Circuit, Pineiro produced the best ground ball rate in baseball and walked only 1.14 batters per nine innings. True, he does not miss bats (4.42 K/9), but he was excellent on the way to a 4.8-win performance. The trio combined for 16.1 WAR, which is incredible.

While the trio was the league’s best, Lincecum, as the numbers show, was the best individual pitcher. WAR is not the end-all be-all stat, by any means, but his lead is just so significant there. The Freak won 15 games on a team that featured one plus hitter in its offense, Pablo Sandoval, and scored about only seven runs a week. Plus, he paced the league with 261 Ks and four complete games and posted the second-lowest ERA (2.48). Only Greinke posted a lower FIP than his 2.34 and his 2.85 tRA was also excellent. He probably will not win his second straight Cy Young, since the voters seem to be centered in on St. Louis. But, before it is all said and done, his Trophy Case will not have a lot of empty shelf space.

Keith Law put Vasquez second on his ballot, and, as a result, is getting hammered for it in a lot places. His analysis was sound, though, and I am glad that most writers in the BBWAA are starting to recognize how terrible wins are as a statistic. They tell us practically nothing. Overall, I am happy with how the voters have done to this point, outside of snubbing Andrew McCutchen for N.L. Rookie of the Year. Good for Lincecum, who was the best choice outside of perhaps this guy, in this award, though, as it was not his fault that the Giants’ offense was such a joke.

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The New York Yankees went into last offseason with several question marks and positions that needed to be addressed. The Yankees, who failed to make the postseason and finished in third place in the American League East in 2008, had holes in their starting rotation and an opening at first base; it was clear that the front office had no intention of bringing back Jason Giambi. Luckily, the crop of free agents available set up perfectly to their needs.

New York took advantage of its tremendous financial resources and the favorable free agent market, signing the best two starting pitchers (A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia) and premier bat (Mark Teixeira) on the open market. Since there was so much money coming off the books, the Yankees were able to do so and actually reduce payroll. While there is still a lot of downside risk with each contract, New York was commended for bucking its recent trend of going after quantity and instead landing three of the top free agents. In year one at least, the investments paid off. The Yankees won 103 games during the regular season and ended up taking home their record 27th World Series title.

Coming off a championship and given the state of the relatively weak free agent class of 2010, it is unlikely that the New York front office will spend nearly as much this winter. The Steinbrenner brothers will likely want to reduce payroll yet again—for fiscal reasons as well to avoid any more backlash for scooping up all of the top free agents.

Plus, there are only two free agent players—Matt Holliday and John Lackey—worth a long-term investment in the salary range of even Burnett (five years, $82.5-M). Holliday, when factoring in his age, baserunning, defensive value and offensive output, is by far the top position player and the player with the least amount of downside risk. As a Scott Boras client, though, he is not going to come cheap and would likely see a performance drop off moving into the premier division in baseball, the A.L. East. He would certainly be an upgrade on both sides of the ball over incumbent left fielder Johnny Damon, also a Boras client, but it is unlikely that the Yankees will make a serious run at him.

With Lackey, on the other hand, there are injury question marks and it is doubtful that New York would take another long-term gamble with a pitcher, given how much money will be tied into Burnett and Sabathia over the better part of the next decade. In addition, the 2011 free agent class is expected to be much stronger, with the supply likely to make prices more reasonable. So, the franchise could choose to do what it did in the Johan Santana sweepstakes and simply wait a year to make another huge splash in free agency.

Perhaps most notably, though, the Yankees do not have as many pressing needs. The club could certainly improve the backend of its starting rotation, seeing as how they got by on a three-man staff during the postseason. Youngster Phil Hughes, who excelled as a setup man to Mariano Rivera, could always slide back into a starting role, as could Joba Chamberlain. Plus, the seemingly forgotten Ian Kennedy and a few other internal options provide depth. Still, the team will probably go after a lower-risk, middle-tier pitch or potentially look to the trade market to add another starter. Clearly, how aggressive the Yankees are in that regard will depend on whether or not they can bring back Andy Pettitte, who would be unlikely to sign with another organization if he chooses to keep pitching. Assuming that Pettitte comes back, New York boasts a much more complete pitching staff than it did this time last November before the free agency period began.

The other two pressing questions facing the Yankees are the statuses of Damon and free agent designated hitter Hideki Matsui. Initial reports suggested that the front office plans to resign only one player out of that duo, with Damon, given his ability to play defense, the more logical option.

Matsui, 35, had a fine campaign, batting .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs, 90 RBIs and a 131 OPS+. The left-handed-hitting veteran then had an outstanding performance in the playoffs, but Brian Cashman is on record as saying that he will only base decisions on how each pending free agent performed before October. Given the sample size issue, that is the right strategy, as evaluating a player on a few weeks of at-bats, regardless of how he performed, would be myopic. Thus, as difficult as it may be for sentimental Yankees fans to say goodbye, doing so (assuming that Matsui generates enough demand to merit a three-year contract) will be the right business decision. He offers no flexibility on defense and New York will eventually need that DH spot as an option for its star core as players such as Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Teixeira age and decline on defense. Plus, the free agent market—especially with many non-tendered candidates expected to join the ranks—is going to be filled with productive hitters who offer little value on defense, with the supply of solid all-hit, no-field players expected to exceed the demand of American League teams that have a hole at DH. Granted, that could bring the asking price down for Matsui, but given his postseason exploits, he should generate a few lucrative offers.

Boras is floating around some crazy numbers for Damon, who is now on the wrong side of 35 as well. The veteran outfielder, though, is also coming off a productive season offensively. He hit .282/.365/.489 with a 126 OPS+ and .376 wOBA; according to FanGraphs, he graded out 25.3 runs above average with his bat. Although he produced a -9.2 UZR defensively, he can still at least fake left field a lot better than Matsui can. So, if he can be had for a somewhat reasonable amount, he will be worth bringing back. Indeed, although he is likely to regress on offense (Bill James projects his wOBA to fall to .348), he still projects as a 2.0-win player going forward. It will be interesting to see what happens with Damon and Matsui, but odds are Damon will be the one to return to the Bronx. If Matsui indeed leaves, the team will have an opening at DH, which should not be too difficult to fill.

The Yankees truly had an incredible lineup in ’09, with every regular producing at least 2.0 WAR. The most obvious lacking position that Cashman could attempt to address, however, is center field. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner formed a decent enough platoon at the position, combining to post 3.7 WAR.

While Cabrera had his moments, though, he is really not good enough to play everyday on a championship-caliber club like he was forced to do this year. His line of .274/.336/.416 certainly did not do a whole lot of damage to the Yankees’ explosive offense from the nine spot in the lineup. Indeed, there are several teams that would welcome that kind of production from its number nine hitter. However, he still produced a below-league average OPS+, 99, for the third straight season and his .331 wOBA was good for just 1.6 runs above average. That kind of offense is fine for the position, of course, but he is not exactly a premier defender, either. In fact, he graded out a tick below average (-1.6 UZR, -2.0 UZR/150) and is in the red in UZR for his major league career. Overall, the homegrown product still managed 1.6 WAR, but a team like the Yankees can do better considering that his upside is that of a 2.0-win player.

Gardner, who is actually a year older than Cabrera, was a valuable asset for the Yankees in his first full crack at the highest level in his own right. He hit .270/.345/.379 in 284 plate appearances with 26 stole bases in 31 chances, scoring 48 runs in 108 games. Most of his value comes from his plus defense, however, as he produced a stellar 7.2 UZR and 15.4 UZR/150 in 628.1 innings in the field. Plus, he was a great baserunning option off the bench in the late innings.

Thus, the Yankees could go into spring training with the same duo in center field and be fine. However, Cabrera is not an everyday player and Gardner, thanks to his defense, is better suited as an outstanding fourth outfielder.

New York had one other hole in its lineup, backup catcher Jose Molina, who is also a free agent. Molina, Burnett’s favorite catching target, offered nothing on offense and is practically a guaranteed out. Internal reinforcements for that position are on the way—Jesus Montero, despite concerns about his defense, is one of the best-hitting prospects in the minors, and then there is Austin Romine—but the team could try and upgrade with a stopgap until they are definitely ready as a backup to Posada, who should see more time at DH next season.

Clearly, the Yankees do not have many weaknesses. Unlike previous seasons, the most complete and premier team survived the crapshoot nature of the eight-team postseason tournament and won the World Series. Thus, there are not as many pertinent issues facing Cashman as there have been in recent past. While there is no stopping the team from simply going all out again and getting Holliday to replace Damon in left field, it would be somewhat shocking to see the Steinbrenners spend nearly as much as they did last offseason for the aforementioned reasons.

That said, Cashman is not going to rest on his laurels and there are some lesser-tier free agents worth pursuing for what the Yankees need. Two names that come to mind are Mike Cameron and Nick Johnson.

New York nearly acquired Cameron from the Milwaukee Brewers last winter. According to reports, Milwaukee would have received Cabrera and potentially Kei Igawa in exchange for the veteran center fielder. Doug Melvin would not agree to send money along in the deal—after seeing the Yankees dwarf the Brewers’ offer for Sabathia, the nerve of Cashman to expect money to be included reportedly set him off the edge—and the talks broke down. New York reopened talks with Milwaukee before in August, but again the two sides failed to work something out.*

*It is hard to be critical of the Yankees, seeing as how they won the World Series. However, the team would have been even better had they had Cameron roaming center field. Since money is not believed to be an issue, it was surprising that the team did not pull the trigger.

In other words, the Yankees have had their eyes on Cameron for a while and obviously think highly of his defense and power combination—rightfully so. Cameron is a notoriously underrated player because of his .250 career batting average and high strikeout totals; he has struck out in 27.9 percent of his career plate appearances. However, he makes up for those deficiencies with his on-base skills (11.4 career BB%) and power (.198 career Isolated Power). His output has also been suppressed by unfavorable home hitting environments, but he has produced strong park-adjusted OPS+ totals over the past several seasons.

Here are his OPS+ numbers since 2005:

2005: 114
2006: 121
2007: 104
2008: 111
2009: 111

During that time span, Cameron has graded out 51.8 runs above average. Although he would regress moving over to the superior American League, hitting in Yankee Stadium would help.

Not only that, most of Cameron’s value comes from his outstanding outfield defense. He has been one of the top defensive center fielders in the majors the past two years, producing UZR/150 totals of 15.6 and 10.3 in 2008 and ’09, respectively. In large part due to the defense, he has produced 8.3 WAR (valued at just under $40-M) during that two-year span.

The Yankees have Austin Jackson coming up in the wings, but the team would be wise to offer Cameron a high annual salary and try to bring him in a one-year deal. Given his age and the perception that he is only a complementary piece, doing so should be plausible.

Jackson will be the Yankees’ long-term answer, but he still has a lot of work to do refining his skills as a hitter. According to Yankees’ prospect expert Mike Axisa of the popular Yankees blog River Avenue Blues, he will probably not be ready for a full-time role until ’11. “Jackson still needs more time in Triple-A just for the reps,” Axisa says. “He needs to keep working on his swing and pitch recognition, and he probably won’t be the regular center fielder for the Yankees until 2011.”

In the meantime, Cameron could serve as an excellent stop gap. He is going to be 37 next season, so his age is a legitimate concern. The Yankees really should try to get younger this winter any place they can, and this move is inconsistent with that mindset. His defense will make him a worthwhile investment even if falls off the table offensively, though, so he could be a logical match in Pinstripes and he would only be a short-term addition. Also worth mentioning, he is a Type B free agent, so he will not cost the team that signs him any draft pick compensation.

If the Yankees do end up signing Cameron, that will not be enough. He could simply move over to left field, keeping the Cabrera/Gardner (who is equally as talented defensively) in tact. He would be a better fit to take over in center, though, with Gardner spelling him on occasions and against right-handed pitching. That leaves Cabrera, whose bat does not play nearly well enough on a corner, as the odd man out and an opening in left field assuming the team does not re-sign Damon, which would become more of a priority. “Yeah, signing Cameron would not be enough on its own to replace Damon,” Axisa says.

Staying on the field has been an issue for Johnson, but a return to New York makes sense for him as well. His patient approach (career .402 on-base percentage) would fit in perfectly with the Yankees’ offensive approach, and, despite being only 30 years old, his injury history will scare teams from giving him a long-term contract offer. In a short-term situation, the Yankees could outbid any team, and, for one year at least, he could be a great DH fit for them since he can still play first base if needed and open up the position for one of the Yankees’ other sluggers. The difference between him and Matsui offensively is not that great, and he is likely to come cheaper.

The free agent class of ’10 is not too deep, and the Yankees are pretty set with their roster outside of a few exceptions. It is unlikely, therefore, that Cashman will really go out and spend so much on free agents again, but there are a few avenues for the team to get even better if he so chooses.

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I recently answered nine questions for the New York Daily News‘ Jesse Spector in the latest edition of Blogger Nine Innings. Click here to read my take on nine baseball questions, ranging from what I would use as my closer music to my opinions on the most under and overrated players in the majors.

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WEEI baseball writer Alex Speier spoke with Joe Urbon, who is representing free agent outfielder Jason Bay, last week. Urbon essentially made his case in the article for why he feels that Bay is the best outfielder available on the market this offseason. According to Speier, it was the pitch that he has been making to teams around the league.

The report is worth reading in full, but Urbon points out how consistent and productive Bay has been offensively during his professional career. In that regard, he is absolutely correct. His client has been an incredible offensive force, averaging a line of .280/.376/.519 with a 131 OPS+ over seven major league seasons. Outside of an injury-riddled campaign in 2007 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bay has posted an OPS+ above 130 in each of his full seasons. He has indeed been a model of consistency at the plate.

Here are Bay’s OPS+ totals since 2004:

2004: 132
2005: 150
2006: 138
2007: 94
2008: 134
2009: 134

One of the strongest points that Urbon brings up is that Bay has been able to perform in the American League East as well. After coming over from the Pirates at the trade deadline in 2008, he posted a line of .293/.370/.527 with nine home runs and 37 RBIs in 211 plate appearance to serve as a fine replacement for the departed Manny Ramirez. He then followed up that with a streaky, but productive performance in his first full season in Boston in 2009; following a hot start, he batted .267/.384/.537 with 36 homers and 119 RBIs. He was aided by hitting in a favorable park to right-handed hitters, but there is no denying that he is a special hitter and proven run producer. He has legit power (.236 career Isolated Power) and excellent on-base skills (12.9 career BB%).

According to his FanGraphs page, Bay has graded out 182.1 runs above average during his career. His ’07 campaign was the only year in which he did not produce at least 32.0 runs above average, and that was clearly an aberration. Thus, when it comes to Bay being a premier hitter and consistent performer, it is hard to take issue with Urbon.

Unfortunately for Urbon, there is more to baseball than pure offense and the one facet of baseball that was conspicuously absent in the pitch was defense. In fact, there was no mention of how he views Bay defensively until the final paragraph.

“Interest has been very well distributed between the two leagues,” said Urbon. “Not one club mentioned anything about [defense]. I think it becomes a talking point, because it’s worth talking about and dissecting and evaluating, but at the end of the day, his ability to play a consistent left field, clubs are well aware of it.”

This is the major crutch in Urbon’s argument. Of course, an agent will never bash a client or point out his deficiencies. Doing so would, well, make him a pretty terrible agent. Agents have a fiduciary responsibility to do what is in their client’s best interests, and pointing out flaws in a player would not be the best way to carry out that promise. Thus, it is hardly surprising that Urbon would choose to ignore the defensive issue as much as possible and provide a quote like he did to end the piece.

I have no responsibility to Bay, however, so I am going to have to strongly disagree with Urbon on his final point. Actually, he is kind of right. Bay has shown a consistent ability to play left field. Only, he has shown the “ability” to play a consistently awful left field.

Here are Bay’s UZR total since ’04:

2004: -6.4
2005: -6.0
2006: 3.1
2007: -11.5
2008: -18.4
2009: -13.0

In total, Bay has graded out -51.2 runs below average during his career. UZR is not perfect, of course, and generally it takes around three times as large of sample size to receive the same accuracy as offensive statistics. Given how harshly the numbers have consistently been on him, though, it is difficult to assume that there is that much noise in the data. Bay is just not a good defender, with the most generous assessment of his defense pegging him slightly below average. Many like to point to the Green Monster as a reason for the bad UZR totals in Boston, arguing that Bay cannot be as bad as the numbers show given the limited area he has had to work with at Fenway Park. That is nonsense, though, as his numbers were terrible in Pittsburgh as well.

Many front offices around the league have embraced the importance of defense when assessing player dollar values, so the poor defense will definitely hurt him. The runs that he has given back on the other side of the ball have really negated his overall value.

Here are his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals since ’04:

2004: 2.2
2005: 6.4
2006: 5.5
2007: 0.1
2008: 2.9
2009: 3.5

As the WAR totals show, Bay has still been a valuable player because of his tremendous bat, but the defense really hurts him. And, he is on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to get better out in the outfield anytime soon. Plus, as he gets older, it is doubtful that he will maintain his current level of offensive output over the length of any long-term contract for more than four years. Teams are paying for future performance, not past results, so that is also a concern.

There is no question that Bay will receive one of the more lucrative contracts this offseason. And he will deserve that. He can really mash and has shown that he can handle a market like Boston and perform with his bat. However, his defense is horrendous and he will likely need to be a DH in the near future. Thus, a National League team would be foolish to offer him big dollars—seriously, N.L. general managers, do not ignore the defense. It only takes one foolish G.M. to make a a mistake, of course, but Bay needs to stay in the A.L., where he can just slide into a DH role eventually.

Going back to the pitch, Urbon would obviously never* mention UZR or Bay’s shortcomings as a player. But it is easy to call out nonsense on the defense angle.

*The WEEI article made me wonder about the consistency with which agents use advanced metrics in negotiations on behalf of their clients. It would be easy for an agent to dismiss UZR, or a team’s internal defensive metrics, if the data was critical of one client when discussing the player with a savvy front office. But would he then talk up UZR if it helped another? I can just see Scott Boras using UZR to talk up Matt Holliday this offseason, and then turn around and argue that the UZR totals for Johnny Damon are bogus given his genetics.

The team that signs Jason Bay will be getting a really talented player—just probably not as good as perception leads many to believe. Or one as good as this guy.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs

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According to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse, the Cincinnati Reds will need to slash payroll this offseason. Price reports that the Reds’ financial situation could force them to move several high-priced players, such as second baseman Brandon Phillips and starters Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.

Given where the Reds fell on the success cycle last July, I proposed that they sell off any assets they could before the trade deadline when previewing some of their candidates to be moved. Rather than unload dead weight and move a few over-bloated contracts, the front office instead chose to take on salary by trading for third baseman Scott Rolen.

In Rolen, the Reds were acquiring an injury-prone player in his mid-30s who is due to make an $11-M salary with a $4-M bonus in 2010. It was not just the money that made that move so puzzling, though, as Cincinnati sent a nice package to the Toronto Blue Jays, highlighted by top pitching prospect Zach Stewart. At the time, the Reds had fallen way out of contention and had absolutely no chance of reaching the postseason whatsoever. Thus, the rationale was that the team would try to make a realistic run at the National League Central in ’10.

If that is the goal, then, one would assume that the organization would try to keep Harang and Phillips. Arroyo is a different matter, seeing as how he has posted an FIP above 4.5 for three straight seasons; in other words, he is just not that good at pitching, is overpaid and is practically unmovable unless the team picks up the tab on his salary. If Harang and Phillips are moved, however, the Reds’ short-term chances of competing would suffer, making the Rolen deal seem even more ridiculous than it did over the summer.

Seriously, did the Reds not account for any financial troubles when they decided to go after Rolen? I mean, the economy has been in poor shape for a while now and it was clear that attendance was going to be an issue given the poor product on the field. It is not like payroll concerns could have come out of left field.

Another red flag raised in the Price article is this: “The source said the Reds would prefer to keep closer Francisco Cordero, who has two years and $25 million left on his deal.”

As I wrote here, Cordero is an elite relief ace. For a team with limited resources like Cincinnati, though, it is absurd for a relief pitcher to be taking up such a significant portion of the team payroll. If I were Walt Jocketty and had the opportunity of unloading Cordero and his salary, I would jump for joy. Bob Castellini could be tying Jocketty’s hands—there is speculation that he forced Wayne Krivsy’s hand in some of his puzzling decisions—but from an outside view, it appears that he was not the best fit for what the Reds needed at the time of the hire. He has some strengths as a general manager, but his success with the St. Louis Cardinals came when the club was in win-now mode. The Reds, on the other hand, should have been seeking a patient, progressive and shrewd GM who can win with a minimal payroll at his disposal, one who will remain up to date on trends within the industry. From the asinine Willy Taveras contract to the Rolen trade, though, he has seemingly done more harm than good since taking over for Krivsky.

It kind of reminds me of the decision to hire Dusty Baker, who is a fine leader of men but was a terrible hire for a team that should have been in rebuild mode. Baker, of course, is a decent enough manager when the team is trying to win, but his preference for mediocre veterans—which, to his credit, was not as much of an issue this past season—is not really what a up-and-coming ball club needs.

Small-market teams can cry about payroll all they want, and there are inherent disadvantages in the game. When teams like the Reds shoot themselves in the foot with Cordero- and Taveras-type deals, though, it is hard to feel too bad for them.

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Last week, I produced my preview of the 2010 free agent crop of designated hitters.

Well, you can now eliminate one name from that list. According to reports, Ken Griffey Jr. is headed back for one more year with the Seattle Mariners. Griffey will be paid a guaranteed $2.0-M with the chance to make up to $3.15-M in incentives, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.

Here is what I wrote about Griffey in the DH piece:

Griffey Jr. is my all-time favorite baseball player. Despite the fact that I grew up on the other side of the country in Connecticut, my room was pretty much a shrine dedicated to him, and I was a huge Seattle Mariners fan as a kid. Even when he went to the Cincinnati Reds, he was my favorite player. That is why it is sad that the end of the road appears to be near for Junior. It was definitely awesome to see the future Hall of Famer back in a Mariners uniform, but he did little to help the team’s cause when it came to winning. He hit just .214/.324/.411 with a 95 OPS+. Seeing as how he offers little value on defense at this stage, that kind of production does not cut it, and Seattle would be foolish to give him so many at-bats in the DH spot again. Here is hoping that “The Kid” goes out right now on his own terms without having someone else make that decision for him.

Nearly everything mentioned still applies. The Junior farewell tour was fine while it lasted, but I do not think that they needed to make it a two-year ordeal. Forming a DH platoon with Mike Sweeney, he posted a weak line of .214/.324/.411 with a 95 OPS+. Griffey did slug 19 homers while drawing an impressive 57 walks, which many feel shows how much pitchers still respect his ability. Still, according to FanGraphs, he was worth –0.5 runs below an average hitter—acceptable production for a slick-fielding shortstop, not a DH.

All of Griffey’s value at this point comes from his bat, of course, and he should be limited to DH duties. Indeed, as Matthew Carruth notes, he has been the fourth-worst outfield defender in the majors based on UZR since 2007, with much of the damage coming during ’07 and 2008 since he only logged 83.0 innings in the field this past season. Thus, it is not exactly ideal to waste a roster spot on a player who offers nothing on defense and is likely to decline even more with his bat as he turns 40 years old.

Again, I love Griffey*. Most casual Mariners fans still love Griffey, too. As well, the money here is reasonable and this move will not exactly cripple the club going forward, especially if he decides to accept a reduced role. Plus, he will indeed help sell tickets and does offer all of the other intangibles writers love to harp on, as well as veteran leadership. Still, though, this is a bit of a head scratcher.

*My parents let me pick a new pair of shoes for the beginning of each school year, and I used that opportunity to get the new edition of the Griffey Nikes when they came out. It was the best part about going back to school.  And I spent far too much time playing Griffey Baseball for Nintendo 64 as well, always choosing the Mariners in a dynasty mode.

The Mariners deserved a pass for letting sentiment guide decisions in ’09 when they knew that contention was probably beyond reach. Considering that the club could actually be a legitimate contender in the American League West in 2010, though, I really question this move. I will not complain seeing him in a M’s uniform, which puts a smile on my face every time. But, if I were running the team with winning in mind, I would have politely declined and said goodbye to the greatest player the franchise has ever known.

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