Philadelphia Phillies had one of the most prolific nights in their
history on Monday, scoring 22 runs in a blowout victory over the
Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies lit up Reds starter Johnny Cueto for nine
runs in the first inning, staking starter Cole Hamels a lead that
would’ve been difficult to relinquish.
Looking to throw strikes
after receiving so much run support, Hamels did all that was necessary
to even his record at 5-5. He allowed only one earned run in seven
strong innings, striking out two against a lone walk; his only blemish
came on a Jonny Gomes solo home run, as the long ball continued to
plague him. Considering that it was his first win since June 4, when he
tossed a complete-game, five-hit shutout against the Los Angeles
Dodgers, it was nice for Fantasy owners to see him get back in the win
column.
Hamels’ to-date performance has left a lot to be desired
among owners–and the casual Philadelphia fan–as his ERA (4.70) and WHIP
(1.39) aren’t the kind of numbers associated with a consensus Top 10
Fantasy pitcher. The World Series hero, who many felt was at risk of
breaking down after being extended into the postseason, has been hit
hard in 2009. Indeed, he has allowed 110 hits in 92.0 innings pitched,
surrendering an opponents’ line of .300/.330/.474 and .804 OPS in 367
at-bats. Some owners would take that production for their offense.
If
you own Hamels, though, don’t lose patience just yet. And, if someone
in your league is willing to make him available, seriously consider
pulling the trigger if the price is right, because he’s likely to pitch
like the pre-season ace everybody expected in the second half.
For
starters, Hamels has maintained healthy strikeout and walk rates; his
4.39 K/BB ratio is actually better than it was in 2008, when he put up
a 3.70 mark on the way to a 3.09 ERA. As well, while the defense behind
him has worsened (.693 defensive efficiency rating), his .352 batting
average on balls in play (BABIP) is 57 points greater than his career
average of .295; granted, this can be attributed to getting hit harder,
as his line drive rate is up to a career-high 24.4%. Even if his stuff
has been easier for hitters to get good wood on, though, expect the
BABIP to regress closer to the staff total of .307. He hasn’t been as
effective at preventing base runners from scoring, either, with his
strand rate currently sitting at 71.3%, also a career low. While it’s
nothing too unusually terrible, it should also improve.
Stuff
wise, Hamels’ average fastball velocity is down a tick to 89.9 MPH,
from 90.4 the previous two seasons, and his changeup is up a bit.
Seemingly healthy now after missing injury concerns earlier this
spring, though, there aren’t any real red flags on this front.
The
luck argument may seem like a cop out, but Hamels appears to be another
tragic victim of the baseball gods, making him an excellent candidate
for a turnaround after the All-Star break. In fact, his current FIP–the
best way to predict future ERA–is actually better than it was in ‘08.
2008
FIP: 3.72
2009
FIP: 3.64
Every
time out won’t look as easy as it did on Monday for Hamels, but he’s
still a legit stud. ZiPS projects him to go 7-4 with a 3.67 ERA and
rates of 8.39 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 with a .291 BABIP from here on out,
which seems reasonable. With the Phils likely to continue to swing the
sticks–especially if Jimmy Rollins gets going–he could get you some
wins while his WHIP improves.
Hamels should be fine, at least
when it comes to pitching. After seeing the ESPN The Magazine
commercial 15 times today, he clearly doesn’t have a future on camera.
Note: I will be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable show tonight at 10:30 to discuss Hamels and my take on the 2009 All-Star snubs. Use the media player below to listen:
