I like Scott Rolen as a player. I really do.

Rolen
is an outstanding defensive third baseman, even at age 34, and has
rebounded a great deal as a hitter after putting his injury issues
behind him. He has indeed produced a real nice season so far for the
Toronto Blue Jays in 2009, batting .320/.370/.476 with a 123 OPS+.
While he is not quite the same fielder that he was during his prime, he
is still quite good on the other end of the ball as well; he has put up
a healthy 4.8 UZR and 7.9. UZR/150. When factoring in batting, fielding
and positional considerations, he has produced an outstanding 3.0 Wins Above
Replacement (WAR), which ranks seventh in the game among qualifying
major league third baseman.

Through the past decade, Rolen has
battled some ups and downs, from fighting with Tony LaRussa to getting
sidetracked with consistent injuries. He has remained a valuable
defensive asset and gotten through the adversity, though, and is still
a tremendously valuable player for a guy his age. I have always liked
him and thought he got a bad rap in Philadelphia and St. Louis.

With
that said, I dislike the trade that sent Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds
as much as I like him as a player. It just does not make sense to me.

As
I wrote last week, the Reds have no chance of contending. Instead of
moving some contracts to free up some payroll, though, the club sent
third baseman Edwin Encarnacion, reliever Josh Roenicke and top
pitching prospect Zach Stewart to the Blue Jays in exchange for the
All-Star third sacker.

While the club wisely did not part ways
with slugging first base prospect Yonder Alonso, I still just do not
get it. Assuming that Cincinnati made the trade to compete in 2010, it
is still questionable considering the steep price in prospects and
payroll that were forced to incur.

True, Rolen represents a
major defensive upgrade over Encarnacion, who has been worth -36.1 runs
below an average third baseman with his glove during his career. This
will help in the short term and for 2010, when the Reds could perhaps
make a realistic run in the National League Central. Also, moving to
Great American Ball Park should help his power output; his Isolated
Power (IsoP) is down to .157, well below his .216 career average, and
he has hit just eight home runs.

Assuming that Rolen stays
healthy–and given his track record, that is a pretty big if, increasing
the risk–he will likely net at least two-win upgrade over Encarnacion
with his defensive value alone. He is still going to be 35, though, and
is due to make $11-M in base salary with a $4-M bonus in ‘10, according
to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
While he will earn his paycheck in terms of WAR if he puts up another
3.5-win campaign, the difference between his salary and production will
be fairly slim. The opportunity of cost of where the team could have
allocated that payroll to build for the future, as a result, is fairly
high.

Plus, a lot of Rolen’s offensive value in ‘09 is the
result of his .320 batting average. His walk rate is down to 7.1%, down
from a 11.2% career average. However, the BA is misleading and has been
aided by an unsustainable .347 batting average on balls in play
(BABIP); his career BABIP is .314. Again, I think that Rolen is a
great, great player, but, for where Cincinnati finds itself as an
organization, the move does not make a whole lot of sense.

The
Blue Jays botched the Roy Halladay situation, from where I am standing,
wasting an opportunity to cash in on their asset with his value at its
peak. However, I like what Toronto, who said that Rolen asked to be
moved for “personal reasons,” did here. General manager J.P. Riccardi
picked up two solid minor league pieces and an all-hit, no-field
infielder who has value going forward in Encarnacion

I wrote about Encarnacion last week:

Encarnacion’s
value is at a real low point. He’s getting up there in years, at 26,
and has still yet to live up the hype that has surrounded him for
nearly a decade. He missed much of the first few months due to injury
and has really struggled when he has been on the field. Despite a
strong return, he’s currently batting only .209/.341/.365 with an 85
OPS+. While he’s always been a plus bat and his numbers should improve
(ZiPS projects him to post an .808 OPS the rest of the season), though,
his value also suffers because of his well below-average defense at the
hot corner. Indeed, he has been worth -35.4 runs below an average third
baseman during his career and has produced a -5.4 UZR and stunningly
terrible -25.0 UZR/150 this year. All factors considered, he has
produced -0.1 WAR. He still has talent and potential, especially if his
bat improves and he moves out of the infield, but he’s not going to
bring back any solid chips, profiling as a 2.0-win player at best.

It
will be interesting to see if Encarnacion will be moved to the outfield
in Toronto, something that has been speculated in Cincinnati. Ricciardi
has built several teams founded on strong defenses, especially in the
infield, to support a ground-ball pitching staff. Adding the rangeless
butcher will hurt there, but his bat will be a welcome addition to the
lineup despite his poor performance to date.

According to Reds minor league expert Doug Gray,
the one prospect who it really hurts to lose as far as Cincy is
concerned is Stewart. Gray, who ranked him as the eighth-best prospect
in the organization in the offseason, said that he would not trade the
22-year-old right-hander for Rolen straight up.

Stewart
has shot up three levels already, excelling at each stop along the way
from High-A Sarasota to Triple-A Louisville. He began the spring in the
Florida State League, where he posted a 2.13 ERA, 2.77 FIP and rates of
6.80 K/9, 1.70 BB/9 and 0.21 HR/9 in 37.0 innings pitched over seven
starts. The Reds then promoted him to Double-A Chattanooga, and he
continued to shine. He improved his strikeout rate (7.54 K/9) while
registering a 1.46 ERA and 2.77 FIP in 37.0 innings pitched over seven
starts. Cincinnati moved him to the bullpen to limit
his innings upon a promotion to the International League. Although he
was a reliever during an inconsistent career at Texas Tech, however,
his future is clearly a starter. Like any other pitcher, his stuff
plays up in the late innings and he was effective in that role in nine
appearances for the Bats, striking out 16 in 12.1 innings pitched.

Along
with the impressive numbers, the scouting reports on Stewart are
excellent as well. He has good command over a heavy, sinking fastball
that sits in the 92-to-96 MPH range. The pitch is a real worm burner,
helping him to generate a ton of ground ball outs. He also mixes in a
plus slider, which he can consistently locate, and an
average-but-improving change-up.

The kid is real
good. Indeed, according to Gray, he would be the number two prospect
in the Cincinnati farm system today had he not switched organizations.
Giving up that many years of his services will sting down the road.

To
top it off, Roenicke is a nice relief asset as well. Relievers are the
easiest position to find cheap production–take a failed starting
prospect, stick him in the bullpen–and have a minimal upside, which
hurts his prospect status for that reason. However, the results are
what you want to see. He misses a ton of bats using a big mid-90s
fastball (avg. velocity 94.6 MPH in the majors), low-80s slider and
upper-80s cutter. His minor league K rates are excellent, and, while he
has had a difficult time on a control and command front in the past, he
is a nice-looking, cheap relief asset who was just an added bonus in a
great pick-up for Toronto.

It will be nice to see Rolen in a
Cincy uniform, and he gets to reunite with general manager Walt
Jocketty. The trade is nearly as puzzling as batting Corey
Patterson leadoff, though, and could come back to haunt the club when
Stewart is mowing down hitters in the majors well into the next decade.

Color me confused.