New York Yankees beat reporter Joel Sherman recently posed an interesting question to seven front office executives. Sherman, who writes for the New York Post, asked each front office exec which second baseman they would rather have as their starter over the next five years: Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia.
Pedroia, the reigning American League Most Valuable Player, was the easy winner, collecting all seven votes in the informal poll. The reason, according to the article, was that the diminutive Boston second baseman has better makeup, is a “leader” and “winner.”
Sherman goes into detail pointing to the strengths and weaknesses of each player, but I was not satisfied with that answer. To me, it is lazy that baseball people consistently point to characteristics such as grit and heart to describe Pedroia, perhaps solely because of his height and the fact that he swings out of his shoes, taking away from his overall ability. What often times gets lost in translation, though, is that he is actually a really talented baseball player, too. Indeed, there are a lot of other players who have a ton of heart and are simply are not nearly as productive.
To answer the question, personally I would also choose Pedroia over Cano. Each player is immensely talented and signed to affordable team-friendly contracts, though, so a team could certainly do a whole lot worse than going with either second sacker.
The American League East second baseman rivals certainly had opposite performances in 2008.
Pedroia, at 24, had a fine sophomore campaign, batting .326/.376/.493 with a 122 OPS+. He paced the league with 54 doubles, 213 hits and 118 runs scored, amassing 322 total bases. The 2007 A.L. Rookie of the Year also blasted 17 home runs and swiped 20 bases in 21 chances. Although his walk rate fell to 7.1 percent, he was one of the toughest hitters in the league to strike out and consistently made hard contact, producing a 21.2 percent line drive rate. Overall, Pedroia was worth 29.5 batting runs above average, according to FanGraphs. He also ranked 10th in the league with a .382 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).
What really made Pedroia so valuable in ‘08, though, was his excellent defense at the keystone. He posted a 10.5 UZR in 1,376.1 innings at the position, ranking second in the league behind Mark Ellis of the Oakland Athletics. When factoring in batting, fielding, positional and replacement considerations, his production on both sides of the ball translated into an impressive 6.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which represented the highest total in the league. While some voters probably based their decisions on his “grit” and the story behind it, he was rightful selection as M.V.P. To anyone who doubts his ability, I can certainly tell you that it takes a lot more than heart to lead the league in WAR, which does not give any bonus points for likeability.
Cano, on the other hand, struggled to follow-up a fine ‘07 campaign, in which he hit .306/.353/.488 with a 120 OPS+. He experienced a sharp drop in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), from .331 to .286, as he posted a disappointing overall line of .271/.305/.410 with a below-average 86 OPS+. Always a free swinger, his walk rate also went south, falling to 4.5 percent. The drop off in points on his batting average and his inability to walk made for a lot of outs, and, as a result, angry phone calls into wFAN with New York fans demanding that he be moved and criticizing his contract. He still hit for plus power for a middle infielder, but he graded out -10.7 runs below average, with a .307 wOBA, with his bat overall.
Making matters worse, Cano also regressed on defense. To many, his defensive struggles were the result of a lack of concentration in the field and lack-a-daiscal approach to fielding. According to several people within the organization, the loss of coach Larry Bowa, who followed former manager Joe Torre to the Los Angeles Dodgers, played a major part. Bowa reportedly helped Cano mature a great deal in ‘07, so not having the positive influence around became an easy scapegoat for the struggles.
Whatever the reason, Cano’s UZR dropped from a fine 11.3 to -8.0, seriously hurting his overall value. He amassed just 0.5 WAR total, down from his incredible 5.0-win season a year earlier. It was a tremendous disappointment, a step back in his development, and a reason (among many others, from the pitching staff to the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays) why the Yankees missed out on the postseason for the first time since Torre took over as manager in 1996.
If Sherman were to have asked the question in August of ‘08, then, the answer likely would have been a no-brainer. Cano has rebounded at the plate, though, and is currently hitting .311/.343/.499 with a 118 OPS+. His 4.9 percent walk rate is still poor, but he has belted 18 homers and has increased his Isolated Power to .188. Essentially, he is a hitter who has to hit around .300 with some power to maximize his offensive value, and he is doing exactly that. With his sweet left-handed swing, he is hitting more line drives (20.4 LD%) than at any point in his career and has had improved luck on batted balls hit into play, with his BABIP rising to .314.
With a .358 wOBA, Cano has produced 12.6 runs above average for New York. As well, his defense has improved a bit, as he has registered a -3.3 UZR in 1,071.1 innings at second base. Overall, he has put up 2.8 WAR, valued at $12.7M. For this reason, he is back in the discussion for best second baseman in the division*.
*The A.L. East is stacked at second. Every player at the position in the division has produced at least 2.5 WAR. Granted, Ben Zobrist has played all over the diamond, but all five guys have been excellent in ‘09. Check the WAR totals below:
Zobrist, Rays: 6.1 WAR
Pedroia, Red Sox: 3.9 WAR
Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays: 3.3 WAR
Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles: 3.3 WAR
Robinson Cano, Yankees: 2.8 WAR
Although any hopes for repeating as MVP have fallen by the wayside, Pedroia has had a better season than he has gotten credit for He is hitting .296/.371/.440 with 36 doubles, 10 homers and a 106 OPS+ in 533 plate appearances. He is not hitting for as much power and his wOBA has fallen to .353, but he has actually improved his walk rate (10.0%) and is hitting nearly as many line drives as he did a year ago. His BABIP, though, is down .31 points at .305, which has contributed to the drop in BA. Overall, he has still been worth 10.3 batting runs.
Pedroia has also remained an elite defender, ranking first among qualifying A.L. second baseman with an 8.8 UZR and second with a 9.6 UZR/150. In large part because of his defensive value, he has the edge over Cano in WAR, currently sitting with a 3.9 total. The Red Sox star is clearly not playing at the same level as he did in ‘08, and may never approach anywhere near 6.6 wins again, but he is still a productive player who has been the most important player on the team outside of Kevin Youkilis.
Going forward, there are so many factors that will end up determining which mid-20s star will have the better career. Pedroia, to me, is the safer pick, though, and make-up is only a minor reason why. He is more consistent, has much better plate discipline and is the better defender. Cano has a ton of talent himself (with more power), and, if he can improve his walk rate and become more selective, could emerge into a real stud. Even if that does not happen, he should be a tremendous asset for the Yankees. He is an excellent player, indeed, and New York fans should accept him for what he is.
Pedroia, though, would get my pick.
Again, the Red Sox and Yankees should each be extremely happy with the fact that they have talented second baseman locked up well into the next decade. Cano inked a four-year, $30M extension in January of 2008, a fine decision by New York. Pedroia signed a six-year, $40.5M extension (with a club option for 2015) with Boston over the winter, keeping him in uniform through his peak.
At those prices, each team is definitely set at the position for the long term.
Tyler Hissey is the editor of Around the Majors and host of Minor League Notebook Weekly, FirstInning.com’s online radio show. Tyler was a recent guest of Sid Rosenberg’s baseball show on OpenSports.com. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.









{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
I’m admittedly biased as a Sox fan, but I’d give Pedroia an edge too, based on defense. Cano shows flashes with the glove, but you never know when he’s going to boot an easy grounder like he did the other night against the Sox with Pedroia if he gets to it it’s probably an out. They’re tougher to compare as hitters because they do different things well, Pedroia is the ideal #2 guy and Cano hits lower in the order where he doesn’t need to worry as much about walking.