What The Rockies Should Do With Betancourt, Hawpe and Torrealba

by Tyler Hissey on October 13, 2009

The Colorado Rockies were the final team to get eliminated from Division Series play last night after falling to the reigning World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Now that the Rockies are out, the team can focus on what it needs to do in order to return to the postseason in 2010.

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post chimed in this morning. Here are three blurbs that caught my eye when reading the article and what I would do if were running the show out in Denver. I will take them one by one.

Renck:

“Reliever Rafael Betancourt, who enjoyed a splendid series, has a $5 million club option for next season.”

Yes, I would absolutely bring Betancourt back at that price. Before I say anything about him in particular, it is worth pointing out how volatile relief pitching performances are. Given the relatively small sample sizes associated with relievers, a pitcher can go from dud to stud in a two-year period.

Betancourt is the perfect example. He was lights out for the Cleveland Indians in 2007, helping form one-half of the team’s dominant Rafael relief combo. The veteran right-hander produced excellent peripherals—9.08 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 8.89 K/BB and 0.45 HR/9—and registered a nifty 1.47 ERA, 312 ERA+ and 2.22 FIP in 79.1 innings pitched. It is extremely difficult for any bullpen arm to earn more than a few wins above replacement, due to the limited innings thrown, but he incredibly put up 3.2 WAR. Amazingly, given his low-profile, he graded out as the most valuable reliever in baseball in the category, with his production translating to a league-best (for relievers) $13.0-M. More than Joakim Soria, Francisco Cordero, Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, ect…

Is Betancourt a better pitcher than those guys? Well, no. But his ’07 campaign was outstanding. Not surprisingly, though, he regressed considerably in 2008, as relievers often times do. He still missed bats at a decent rate (8.11 K/9), but his home runs allowed (1.39 HR/9) and walks (3.17 BB/9) shot up. According to FanGraphs’ pitch type values, Betancourt was not as effective with his slider, which was worth –3.3 runs below average, and the quality of his fastball also worsened significantly. As well, he went from one end of the spectrum to the other when it came to receiving good fortune; his batting average on balls in play jumped from .246 to .323 while his strand rate fell from 86.4% to 70.1%. His final numbers were pretty ugly—5.07 ERA, 88 ERA+, 76 hits allowed in 71.0 innings pitched—as he was one of many arms in the Cleveland bullpen who was not able to recapture his dominant ’07 form.

Before being traded to Colorado, Betancourt regained some of his old form early in the spring/summer months for the Tribe; he posted a 3.52 ERA and 129 ERA+ in 30.2 innings pitched. He then took the transition to the inferior National League to his liking, posting a 1.78 ERA and 253 ERA+ in 25.1 innings pitched in his new surroundings. For the year, he put up solid rates of 9.80 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 3.88 K/BB and 0.64 HR/9 and a 2.92 FIP/$6.4-M.

What comes next is the likely regression. Betancourt is not a three-win pitcher, of course, but, assuming he falls in line between his ’08 and ’09 levels, he will be worth $5.0-M. Plus, if Colorado falls out of contention, he could always be dangled as trade bait to a contender looking for “proven” relief help before the deadline. I generally subscribe to the theory that spending for relievers is inefficient, but here I would make it happen.

Renck:

“Same for catcher Yorvit Torrealba, who has a $4 million club option for 2010.”

Here, I say no. Torrealba had a “career” year and did well down the stretch, becoming a favorite of manager Jim Tracy. A .255 lifetime hitter, he posted a career-best .291 batting average. However, that average came attached to a .351 on-base percentage and .380 slugging percentage, giving him a below-average 88 OPS+. He had only 14 extra-base hits total, with 11 doubles, one triple and two home runs. For a player who calls Coors Field home, that is obviously not too impressive. Essentially, his batting average drove his offensive value, but he offered little in power or walks. And the BA was driven by an unsustainable .355 BABIP—his career average is .298—so you know what happens next there.

Total, Torrealba was worth 0.8 WAR; he was –4.8 runs below average but his position drove the value. Keeping in mind that FanGraphs does not account for catcher defense, even a liberal estimate of his defense pegs him at about a 1.0-win player in a career offensive breakout. Plus, it is hard to overlook that career line of .255/.315/.390 and 80 OPS+.

And, as Renck alludes to, the Rockies already have a cheaper, younger option in Chris Iannetta. It was a rough year for Iannetta, but he is still the better option going forward. His .228 batting average caused him to fall out of favor with the traditional Tracy, but he still dwarfed Torrealba with a .345 OBP and .460 slugging percentage. He hit 16 bombs and managed a 13.0 BB%. And, while his BABIP-drop is not the only reason for the low average (his line drive rate fell), he was hurt by his .253 mark there. Overall, he was still worth 2.0 WAR.

Most important, Iannetta is still only 26 and quietly put together one of the finest offensive seasons by a catcher in the league in ’08, when he posted a line of .264/.390/.505, slugged 18 homers and posted a 127 OPS+. He is cheaper and better than the man who he shared time with.

I loved the Torrealba story, certainly, and was glad that his child returned home safe after being kidnapped earlier in the season. But Iannetta is the guy, and that $4-M could be used elsewhere.

Renck:

“Given the emergence of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith and the Rockies’ Triple-A depth, (Brad) Hawpe will be a trade candidate. He is under contract for $7.5 million next season, with a $10 million 2011 option that can be voided if he is dealt.”

Here I completely agree that Brad Hawpe needs to go. There is simply no room for Hawpe at this point. He can definitely mash a bit, of course, having produced a career line of .283/.377/.498 and 130 OPS+ in six major league seasons. However, he cannot hit lefties—.750 OPS against southpaws compared to .908 against his opposite kind—and is a terrible defender in the outfield. In fact, he could be the worst defensive right fielder in the majors and has been worth –89.7 runs below average, according to UZR, during his career.

The defense really negates Hawpe’s overall value. His career WAR is only 3.8, despite his offensive prowess. He is a should-be DH/first baseman who struggles against lefties and any product of Coors Field talk applies to him. If I am Colorado, I would try to shop him and find the desperate team looking for a bat enough to ignore his defensive shortcomings and limitations. But, at $7-M, I doubt he generates much of a demand.

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