I have had to put the series on hold for the past week, but the next position up in my class of 2010 free agent preview—click links for first basemen, outfielders, second basemen, shortstops, starting pitchers and third basemen—is designated hitters. Last winter, the market was extremely cold for players whose value comes solely from their bat. And I expect that to be the case this winter as well, though there are some decent names below.
Hank Blalock: Blalock is also listed as a first baseman, and here is what I wrote about last week: After ten years with the Texas Rangers organization, Blalock will finally say goodbye to the only team that he has ever known. The presence of first baseman Chris Davis and impending arrival of slugging switch hitter Justin Smoak make him expendable in Texas. The front office has been upfront that they have no intention of making an effort to bring the injury-prone slugger back, which is definitely the right decision.
Injuries limited Blalock to only 123 games combined between 2007 and ’08. While he was productive offensively during that time span (134 OPS+ in ’07, 121 OPS+ in ’08), shoulder issues kept him from ever seeing the field. Finally healthy this past season, his offensive performance tanked. The left-handed hitter saw his line fall to .234/.277/.459 and he managed only 26 walks against 108 strikeouts in 495 plate appearances. Overall, he graded out 8.1 runs below average and fell exactly at replacement level; he put up 0.0 Wins Above Replacement. It is worth mentioning that his .252 batting average on balls in play was .47 points below his career average. However, he also saw his line drive drop to 18.4%, his lowest mark since 2004, and posted the worst walk rate (5.3%) since he reached the majors.
Clearly, Blalock is a shell of the player that put up 9.7 WAR total from 2003-’04. While he still has pop in his bat and plus power, he is a limited hitter with weaknesses that can be exploited, strikes out a ton and is below average defensively. Plus, he has benefited from playing in a band box at the Ballpark at Arlington, so his production will suffer upon moving to a more pitcher-friendly home-hitting environment. He is still talented and worth pursuing if the price is right, perhaps representing a bargain if he can fully recover on a health standpoint and is given the chance to play on a consistent basis. Blalock, however, does not deserve anything more (or perhaps even close to) than a low-risk, short-term deal at a few million annually.
Jason Giambi: I was a fan of the processes that went into the Oakland A’s decision to sign Giambi in a one-year, incentive-laden $4-M last offseason. He was coming off a strong finish with the New York Yankees in 2008, having posted a line of .247/.373/.503 with 32 homers and a 128 OPS+. Despite sub-optimal defense at first base, he amassed 2.3 Wins Above Replacement. Giambi was not worth anywhere near his actual $23.4-M salary, but it was a solid 37-year-old campaign. Even accounting for a likely offensive drop off with age and moving out of Yankee Stadium, he appeared to be a safe bet to be worth at least 1.0-to-1.5 WAR and the deal seemed like a worthwhile risk.
Unfortunately, things did not work out for Giambi in his return to the Bay. Indeed, he was simply awful for the A’s, batting .193/.332/.364 with an 89 OPS+ in 359 plate appearances before being released in August. He was sub replacement-level and not worth a contract that appeared to be a bargain at the time of the signing. Giambi resurfaced as a pinch-hit role with the Colorado Rockies down the stretch, providing leadership and a 164 OPS+ in a small sample size of 31 plate appearances. He said that he would like to return to Colorado, but he is worth nothing more than the minimum and a non-guaranteed invite to spring training at this stage.
Ken Griffey Jr.: Griffey Jr. is my all-time favorite baseball player. Despite the fact that I grew up on the other side of the country in Connecticut, my room was pretty much a shrine dedicated to him and I was a huge Seattle Mariners fan as a kid. Even when he went to the Cincinnati Reds, he was my favorite player. That is why it is sad that the end of the road appears to be near for Junior. It was definitely awesome to see the future Hall of Famer back in a Mariners uniform, but he did little to help the team’s cause when it came to winning. He hit just .214/.324/.411 with a 95 OPS+. Seeing as how he offers little value on defense at this stage, that kind of production does not cut it, and Seattle would be foolish to give him so many at-bats in the DH spot again. Here is hoping that “The Kid” goes out right now on his own terms without having someone else make that decision for him.
Vladimir Guerrero: Age is catching up to Guerrero, who is coming off the worst full season of his career. He hit just .295/.334/.460 with 15 home runs for the Los Angeles Angels, posting the lowest OPS+ total, 104, of his career. He was limited to only 100 games played due to injury.
In addition, Guerrero walked in just 4.7 percent of his plate appearances and saw his Isolated Power drop to .164. His wOBA of .343 was .54 points below his career average and translated to only 5.0 runs above average. His defense has also fallen and, for that reason, he should be a strict DH for the rest of his career. Overall, he managed just 0.8 WAR/$3.4-M. He was much better as the season progressed, posting an .844 OPS with 11 homers after the All-Star break, but it is clear that his best days are behind him.
Guerrero is not worth anywhere near a massive deal at this stage and comes with too many red flags, as he no longer can get by his plate discipline issues on pure talent and bat speed. He would be wise to sign early in the offseason like his teammate Bobby Abreu, because otherwise it could end being a long winter for him. His likely Type A free agent status will also hurt his market value, since a DH with injury issues might not be worth an early compensation pick.
Update: Guerrero classified as a Type B free agent and will not cost the team that signs him a draft pick.
Aubrey Huff: I liked the Huff trade for the Detroit Tigers when it was made. He really struggled after being moved, though, posting a 48 OPS+ in 117 plate appearances with Detroit. It was a difficult campaign for Huff overall. He posted just an 80 OPS+ with 15 homers in 597 PAs, grading out -15.9 runs below average combined between the Baltimore Orioles and Tigers. That offensive output led to him producing -1.1 WAR and providing $5.1-M in negative value. Thus, the market could treat him rather harshly this winter.
That said, Huff is only a year removed from a 4.2-WAR campaign in 2008, when he slugged 32 homers and posted a 135 OPS+ for the O’s. He is not worth much more than the minimum, but he could be worth taking a flier on and has the potential to rebound in the right situation.
Hideki Matsui: Talk about a way to go out. Matsui delivered an incredible performance in Game 6 of the World Series. In what is likely to be his final game in Pinstripes, he drove in six runs to lead the New York Yankees to their 27th World Series championship. He even took home series M.V.P. honors after continuing to own Pedro Martinez. That said, reports indicate that the Yankees are only planning on bringing back one player between Johnny Damon and Matsui, who is a year older and who is more limited defensively.
New York needs to keep that DH spot open for its aging sluggers, so parting ways with Matsui is the right move even though the sentimental portion of the fan base probably wants him back given the great finish. If he goes elsewhere, Matsui, even at 36 with two bad knees, still has some good years ahead. The likely Type B free agent had a fine season with the Yanks overall, hitting 28 bombs while posting a 128 OPS+. He turned it on down the stretch when Damon struggled and ended up grading out 22.1 runs above average. Solely based on his bat, he put up a solid 2.4 WAR, playing an instrumental part in the Yankees’ regular season dominance.
Matsui is probably the best strict DH available and could be a nice signing if the dollars and length are reasonable. Regardless of what happens, he is an easy guy to root for and it was great to see him have so much success in the Fall Classic. He can really hit and is a class act. Plus, there would be definite benefits for from his star power in Japan, especially seeing how high his star is right now because of the postseason mashing, for the team that ends up signing him.
Gary Sheffield: Sheffield, at this stage, should only to appeal to an A.L. team, because he cannot play the outfield for his life depended on it anymore. Indeed, he produced a terrible -31.50 UZR/150 in the outfield for the Mets in ’09, bringing down his overall value to just 0.1 WAR. He did hit, posting a line of .276/.372/.451 with a 117 OPS+. But he also continued to do what he does best, ticking off management and alienating teammates with his baggage off the field. Odds are the 40-year-old does not have another 117 OPS+ season left in him, either, as he will probably fall somewhere between his sub-replacement-level ’08 performance and what he provided the Mets. Thus, he is not worth too much on the open market and the demand for his services should be minimal.
Matt Stairs: Another fun guy to root for, Stairs makes no bones about the fact that he swings for the fences. Unfortunately, that approach did not lead to positive results for the Philadelphia Phillies in ’09. The so-called pinch-hit extraordinaire hit just .194/.357/.379 with only five homers in 129 plate appearances. The NLCS home run off of Jonathan Broxton was huge two falls ago, but he really is not worth much at this stage. It is impressive, though, that he has produced a 118 OPS+ in 17 major league seasons. So, if this is the end, he deserves a tip of the cap for a fine career.
Mike Sweeney: Sweeney was better than Griffey out of the DH spot for the M’s in ’09. But that is not saying much. The 35-year-old veteran DH posted a .777 OPS and 106 OPS+ in 266 plate appearances. His value, like Griffey’s, is fairly low; he has been worth -0.1 WAR since 2007. The M’s are only going to bring back one of the pair, if they decide to bring back Griffey or Sweeney at all.
Jim Thome: Thome was having a pretty good year for the Chicago White Sox when he agreed to a trade that sent him to the Los Angeles Dodgers; he hit .249/.372/.493 with 23 homers in Chicago. He accepted a reduced role with the Dodgers in order to get a shot at another ring, though, and only received 17 plate appearances in Los Angeles. He is going to be 39 but he wants to keep playing and can still mash. Of course, he is best suited for an American League club, so he can continue to DH.
