November 21, 2008

NEWSFLASH: John Mayberry Jr. Traded To Phillies

Reminder: Baseball Time in Arlington has moved! Please update your bookmarks to www.bbtia.com at your earliest convenience.

Happy trails, Junior Mayberry.

Multiple local media sources, including Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, are reporting tonight that the Texas Rangers have completed a swap of disappointing first-round picks with the Philadelphia Phillies, shipping minor league outfielder John Mayberry (Jr.) to the City of Brotherly Love in exchange for the Phillies' 2004 first-round pick, outfielder Greg Golson.

With less than six hours to go until tonight's 11:00 p.m. 40-man roster finalization deadline, it would at first glance appear that this deal was made with the intention of giving Texas some wiggle room, but not so much: Golson's contract was purchased by Philadelphia on September 1st, and he'll be directly placed on the Rangers' 40-man roster, so there's no relief for Texas in that area.

We already know more or less everything there is to know about Mayberry (and if you don't, do yourself a favor and read Jason Parks' excellent July assessment of the 19th-overall pick in the 2005 MLB First-Year Player Draft), so let's aim the bulk of our attention towards Golson in the form of some quick bullet points:

● A lifetime .265/.310/.406 batting line compiled over the span of 2,102 minor league at-bats (and five minor league seasons) makes the 23-year-old Austin, Texas native look a bit worse with the lumber than he actually is; after a horrific .242/.255/.359 campaign (153 AB) at Double-A Reading in 2007, Golson repeated the Eastern League in 2008 to the tune of a far more palatable .282/.333/.434, blasting 13 home runs in 426 at-bats and swiping 23 bases in 28 attempts.

That said, his plate discipline remains undeniably suspect. Golson drew just two walks at Reading in 2007 (majorly contributing to an almost unfathomable walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 0.04), though he did bump his walk rate from 1.3 percent in 2007 to 7.4 percent in 2008, suggesting that the jump widely regarded as perhaps the most difficult to successfully complete in all of professional baseball -- that is, the one from A-ball to AA-ball -- confounded him in a big way last year, and all he needed was a requisite adjustment period. Nonetheless, his walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 0.26 in 2008 was the third-worst among 25 qualifying Eastern League outfielders, and he played half his games in a relatively hitter-friendly park, so that's definitely something worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Regarded as an athlete more so than as a baseball player, Golson possesses impressive raw tools in the form of excellent speed, a powerful arm and legitimate raw power that has yet to translate into sustainable results; Parks, who has seen Golson in action several times, dutifully notes that he "makes easy plays look hard and hard plays look easy."

Now, on to the outside assessments:

● Industry publication Baseball America deemed Golson the Phillies' seventh-best prospect going into the 2008 season, identifying him as the system's best power hitter, defensive outfielder and all-around athlete and bestowing top recognition upon his speed on the basepaths and outfield arm:

Strengths: Golson's five-tool package makes him the system's top athlete. His plus-plus speed stands out the most, as he can get from the right side of the plate to first base in less than 4.0 seconds. He also provides above-average raw power, center-field defense and arm strength.

Weaknesses: Golson's ability to recognize pitches remains his biggest liability. He especially struggles with breaking balls, and tends to get tangled up thinking about what he should do at the plate rather than just seeing the ball and cutting loose. His 49-2 strikeout-walk ratio in Double-A is indicative of his problems, and he led the minors with 173 strikeouts.

The Future: Golson possesses the tools of a young Ron Gant, but he'll need to show he can make consistent hard contact and take pitches if he's going to move beyond Double-A. The Phillies think he can play a big league center field right now, and if everything clicks offensively, he could move extremely fast.

● When asked by Jay LeBlanc of the Washington Times earlier this year to describe his approach at the plate, Golson replied thusly: "For the most past it's just reacting, trying to let the ball get deeper - it keeps me from swinging at bad pitches. But for the most part, I try to hit the ball deep and see it good."

Well, okay.

● One veteran National League scout said during the 2007 Fall Instructional League that Golson's arm and speed were both clear 80s on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, labeled him as a potential "late bloomer" and submitted that "if he leaves his brain in the clubhouse and just goes out there and reacts, he's one of the best prospects in the game."

● Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tabbed Golson as Philadelphia's 10th-best prospect before the 2007 season, pointing out that "on pure athleticism, nobody in the Phillies organization matches him, and few players in the minors can equal his potential as a power/speed combination, as Golson is a plus-plus runner with the bat speed and raw strength to hit for power." On the flip side, Goldstein suggested Golson's approach at the plate was "non-existent," and criticized his sloppy swing mechanics while noting that "his swing has a loop in it that prevents the bat from getting through the zone on a single plane."

Golson did not register on Goldstein's 2008 list, though he was apparently ranked in the number 11 to 13 range.

Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News implies that the Rangers see Golson as a center fielder more so than as a corner outfielder, though the current big league outfield logjam probably precludes a legitimate push by Golson to make the team next spring unless some sort of trade is consummated that removes Marlon Byrd, Brandon Boggs, Nelson Cruz or David Murphy from the picture. It's unlikely this move was made in a complete vacuum, however.

This isn't over.

Tags: MLB, Texas Rangers

Discussion

Start the discussion on "NEWSFLASH: John Mayberry Jr. Traded To Phillies"

Leave a comment