Earlier this week, we talked at length about what free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets would bring to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington -- which is presently under renovation, if for some odd reason you haven't already heard -- in terms of not only on-the-field value as a rotation staple, but also potential revenue-generating value as a marketing asset if Texas were to succeed in prying the lurking fireballer from the shadows. We also identified Sheets's probable fair value in the free-agent marketplace based on his 2008 level of performance, which is somewhere around the $14-15 million per year mark.

Of course, that likely prohibitive price tag is what will ultimately keep the Rangers on the periphery of the Sheets sweepstakes unless general manager Jon Daniels engineers a surprise Christmas salary dump -- one that would undoubtedly ship off either a noticeably slimmed-down Kevin Millwood (who noted during the Rangers' holiday media party on Tuesday that he would be physically prepared for the 2009 season, regardless of where he ends up pitching it), Vicente Padilla or Hank Blalock -- that enables the tendering of an competitive offer, or unless owner Tom Hicks concludes that Sheets would be a worthwhile enough investment that overriding the apparent payroll ceiling currently in place would be financially feasible.

The inherent obstacle looming between the win-thirsty fan base and the dream of the Rangers celebrating Christmas or ringing in the New Year with the acquisition of Sheets is, well, the dream itself. We know the 30-year-old Metroplex resident evokes legitimate interest in the Rangers' front office, but to date Texas has not formally submitted a bid, and it's certainly within the realm of possibility that one will never materialize. Basing the entirety of your off-season plan around a long shot obviously isn't advisable or prudent, and thus it's advantageous for us to examine other ways that the Rangers could immediately improve their big league product without relinquishing a Texas-sized bounty in terms of cash or talent.

Mixed signals have been radiating from the newswires with regard to the Rangers' impending hot corner conundrum, and how the organization plans to bridge the gap from 2008 -- which found a wide assortment of infielders logging heavy playing time at the position, including the defensively inept trifecta of Ramon Vazquez, Chris Davis and Hank Blalock) -- to 2010, a year which might well denote the onset of Michael Young's career as a third baseman. Travis Metcalf, now 26 and likely equipped with his own nameplate-adorned seat on the bus that so frequently carts him between Oklahoma City and Arlington, appears to be the internal favorite to snag the starting job, but that may not be saying very much.

As a direct consequence, Texas has reportedly expressed at least some degree of interest in several of the free-agent market's top offerings at third base, including Casey Blake, who re-signed with the Dodgers for $17.5 million over the life of a three-year pact several weeks ago, and Joe Crede, a defensive wizard whose former offensive productivity has been decimated by back problems over the last two seasons. Veteran infielder Ty Wigginton also notably hit the market last week after the Astros opted to non-tender the 30-year-old slugger when it was determined that he would have consumed approximately $7 million of payroll space through salary arbitration proceedings.

To quote O'Brien, "If [the Yankees] fail to reach an agreement with [Andy] Pettitte, one fallback option is Sheets, though sources said that is highly unlikely at this point," presumably because of concerns over his unnerving propensity for disabled list visits over the last several seasons. Haudricourt is similarly pessimistic on Milwaukee's chances of retaining the 30-year-old rotation anchor, stating that the Brewers have "given no indication they will stop him from going elsewhere" and suggesting that one essentially has to assume that he's a "goner."

It goes without saying that the successful acquisition of Sheets would represent a rather tremendous coup for the Rangers from both a talent standpoint and a public relations standpoint, veritably solidifying the number-one rotation spot with a legitimate top-of-the-rotation talent for presumably no less than two years while generating some much-needed fan enthusiasm and fostering the goodwill that the organization so desperately needs to voraciously accumulate as more and more disposable income in the possession of North Texans begins to vanish.

Now, is sufficient payroll room present to enable the tendering of a competitive offer to Sheets and his agent, Casey Close? The answer to that question is largely dependent on what you personally deem "competitive." Team president Nolan Ryan indicated last month that the Rangers' 2009 payroll would almost certainly fall between $65-75 million, leaving at most $10 million to address other deficiencies on the major league roster after accounting for guaranteed 2009 contracts and the projected salaries of arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players, barring the possible trade of a payroll-consuming individual.

But might not that figure become at least slightly more negotiable if the idea of acquiring Sheets was presented to ownership -- or the man controlling the purse strings, Tom Hicks -- from the perspective of the auxiliary benefits he could provide the Rangers in terms of both enhanced fan viewership (manifested in the form of at least marginally strengthened single-game ticket and season-ticket sales and local television ratings) and overall team marketability? Furthermore, such an offer could be aggressively backloaded if upper management appraised the Rangers' evidently tenuous financial situation as being more of a one-year blip on the radar than a long-term dilemma.

Sheets's fair market value -- on an average annual basis, mind you -- is thought to be in the general vicinity of $14-15 million (the current going rate for a pitcher that projects to be worth approximately three wins more than a replacement-level pitcher), which could conceivably be docked ever so slightly if Sheets opts to grant the Rangers a minor hometown discount; however, don't count on much leeway being afforded there even if negotiations should progress to an advanced stage at some point in the next several weeks.

Assuming Sheets's desire for a two-year deal isn't a fabrication on the part of his agent or the media, Texas could structure a hypothetical deal to pay out perhaps $10 million in 2009 and $16 million in 2010 (with at least a small portion of that $26 million proposal being deferred money). It's almost certain the Rangers would then want to tack on a third-year team option with a reasonably priced buyout clause attached in the event that Sheets outperforms expectations and firmly establishes himself as a feared Junior Circuit fireballer, so for the sake of discussion we'll throw out the princely sum of $2 million for the hypothetical buyout clause and $17 million for the hypothetical third-year team option.

Thus, it becomes either a two-year, $28 million deal or a three-year, $43 million deal, depending on how the Rangers choose to approach what will be a 32-year-old Sheets after the 2010 season. Is that an unreasonable figure? I don't think so, as it locks up the end of the Metroplex resident's prime at a relatively affordable price on a relatively short-term pact that effectively neutralizes some of the risk commonly found in the four- and five-year contracts frequently doled out to primo free-agent starting pitchers. And need anybody be reminded that Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, two far inferior pitchers to Sheets, will both be raking in eight-digit salaries in 2009?

Millwood and Padilla may ultimately be the X-factors in the Rangers' pursuit of Sheets, of course, and it's quite possible -- heck, even probable -- that this entire discussion will be rendered moot if general manager Jon Daniels can't find a way to offload at least one of those contracts onto an affluent playoff contender. There are, however, alternative ways to improve the 2009 major league product besides reinforcing the pitching staff, and we'll soon examine perhaps the biggest positional weakness of the projected 2009 squad, and what can be done to affordably address that weakness without impeding the absurd cache of minor league talent that relentlessly storms closer and closer to Arlington.

● ● ● ● ●

Q: Hey Kevin, thanks for taking our questions.

I'm wondering about Wilfredo Boscan. With all the excitement around Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, and now Michael Main, Boscan seems to be flying under the radar. Looking at his strikeout-to-walk and ground ball rates I can't help but drool. From everything I've read on him he seems to have a phenomenal work ethic, which should allow him to maximize his talent. Is this guy legit? Is it too soon to tell?

- EricTheHalfBee

Goldstein: I like Wilfredo Boscan, but you have to remember that every organization has a few Wilfredo Boscans in it. On that [short-season] Spokane roster, which by the way was absolutely loaded, I would prefer both Martin Perez and Neil Ramirez to Boscan. Boscan is definitely a legit prospect, but he's just a guy with the ability to become something, and that's all he really has right now: the ability to become something. It's not something yet. Every team has two or three of those guys, and it's hard to figure out which ones are going to get there, but one leg up that Boscan has is that he has control beyond his years and that is a really good sign.

Q: Kevin, 
in regard to the Rangers being unable to produce good Major League pitchers, do you think that it would be a good idea for the organization to start teaching a featured pitch (such as the White Sox do with the cutter, thus making John Danks the pitcher he is today)? It would seem that if we told all of our young pitchers that they were going to develop a reliable change-up, it would improve their chances of reaching the majors and being successful. Not to mention that throwing the change-up instead of the slider would put a lot less strain on their arms. Do you know if the Rangers are currently doing this or have any plans to?

- Jeromy

Goldstein: You can't have a feature pitch because there is no one pitch that every player can throw. When you get a young kid, you get them to focus on a single breaking ball; you have them throw a curveball or a slider instead of throwing both. That way, they can focus on one and make it a really good pitch. They don't make that decision by flipping a coin. You look at the kid and you look at his mechanics and his arm action and where his release point is, and based on those factors you can say that he would be better throwing a curveball, or he would be better off throwing a slider. If you make your organizational pitch a slider, well, there are plenty of kids that shouldn't be throwing a slider because they just can't throw a slider. This goes back to the cookie-cutter mentality. I think that is one thing that the Rangers don't do. Every player they have is treated differently based on that player -- based on ability and make-up.

In light of what has evidently transpired in the last 24 hours, that's probably for the best. It would have likely amounted to a great quantity of wasted words in the end, because on the eve of perhaps the most active four-day period transaction-wise of the entire calendar year, those ever-maddening Rangers appear to be on the verge of completing their most significant trade of the off-season.

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported late Sunday evening that the Rangers had, according to an anonymous Major League source, traded catcher Gerald Laird to the Detroit Tigers for minor league right-hander Guillermo Moscoso and a second unnamed prospect, purported to be a "17-year-old [pitcher] who spent last season in the Dominican Summer League."

Since that could ultimately turn out to be anybody from Rayni Guichardo to Carlos Melo (both of whom represent raw and largely unknown commodities at this point, but both of whom also notched in excess of 10 strikeouts per nine innings for the Tigers' rookie-league DSL squad in 2008, so we can safely infer that they're live-armed individuals), there's no real point in baselessly speculating about whom that mysterious second player is -- yet.

[1:20 A.M. Update: At least one media source is reporting that the second prospect is indeed Carlos Melo, a Dominican right-hander who is primarily known for an "electric fastball that averages well over 90 miles per hour." He's exactly the sort of toolsy throw-in you'd expect to see included at the back end of a deal such as this one.]

Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press is similarly indicating that the framework of a trade has been agreed upon by the two clubs; hours earlier, the prolific beat writer wrote that "significant progress" had been made towards a deal being completed, with Detroit fending off apparent interest in Laird from the Reds and, more recently, the Nationals. Tigers officials were reportedly "reluctant" to part ways with Moscoso, which should be perceived as a good sign -- as more than one enlightened baseball oracle has been heard to softly mutter over the years, you know that a trade is probably fair if neither club involved is particularly thrilled about the tradeoff between what was relinquished and what was acquired.

We briefly reviewed the finer qualities of Moscoso's game earlier this week when the Tigers' enhanced efforts to acquire Laird first began to make headlines, but it would surely be beneficial to take a second look at the scouting report industry publication Baseball America crafted for the 25-year-old right-hander a matter of weeks ago, when it deemed Moscoso the Tigers' 10th-best prospect:

Strengths: Moscoso has a quick arm and a fastball that reaches 91-92 mph with late riding action that makes it a swing-and-miss pitch. He can also use his fastball to handcuff hitters and force easy popouts. His delivery has some deception and hitters have trouble reading his pitches. He's aggressive in the strike zone and confident on the mound.

Weaknesses: Moscoso shows a curveball and change-up, but neither is as effective as his fastball. His shoulder problems have limited him to no more than 91 innings in a pro season, which raises the question of whether he would be better suited for the bullpen. It might be easier to keep him healthy as a reliever.

A November 2002 international signee of former Tigers baseball operations/foreign affairs assistant Ramón Peña (who was fired in May 2006), the modestly framed Venezuelan did not make his stateside debut until age 21, and was beset by minor injuries at the end of his 2005 campaign with short-season Oneonta, pushing him backwards to the rookie-league GCL Tigers to begin 2006 and helping to explain the rather notable disparity between his advanced age and his current minor league level (Double-A Erie). Lingering shoulder tendonitis that prompted a six-week shutdown at the beginning of the 2008 season surely didn't aid matters in that regard.

Check out the rest of Joey's analysis of the Gerald Laird trade at www.bbtia.com.

The Rangers are discussing a trade with the Detroit Tigers that would involve catcher Gerald Laird, according to Major League sources.

Sources said the two sides are talking but nothing is close. It should be a topic of conversation at next week's Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.

[...] The Rangers appear more motivated to trade Laird than Saltalamacchia or Teagarden.

Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press affirmed the Tigers' interest in Laird yesterday, suggesting that Detroit has coveted the 29-year-old backstop -- who figures to bank something in the neighborhood of $3 million through salary arbitration in 2009, and will be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season -- for "quite some time," and is better positioned asset-wise to acquire Laird than Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff reported on Sunday that the Mets inquired into the possibility of trading for Laird earlier this off-season, though it's unknown to what extent those talks progressed (or if they even did at all), and there doesn't presently appear to be much in the way of buzz in that sector regardless.

Neither of the potential principal pieces mentioned by Sullivan as possibilities to go back the Rangers' way in such a deal - mid-20s right-handers Chris Lambert and Zach Miner -- are terribly captivating. Miner's lifetime 18-15 record and 4.22 ERA (107 ERA+) in the majors belie his greater problems with the strike zone, which appear to be twofold: first, he doesn't really get the ball across the plate enough (just 59 percent of his 2,027 pitches thrown in 2008 were good for strikes, though his walk rates somehow remain in the vicinity of league average), and second, he has thus far proven incapable of converting his solid stuff -- consisting of a mid-90s heater, a low-90s cutter, and a pair of mid-80s secondary offerings, according to Miner's Pitch f/x player card -- into passable strikeout rates.

Lambert, a first-round pick (19th overall) of the Cardinals in the 2004 MLB First-Year Player Draft and the player to be named later in the June 2007 trade that sent Mike Maroth to St. Louis, was deemed the Cardinals' fourth-best prospect three winters ago by industry publication Baseball America -- which praised his "91-94 mph fastball, good change-up and potentially dominating curveball," but criticized his sloppy mechanics -- and appears to possess a bit more upside than Miner, but likely wouldn't represent an improvement over fellow 2004 first-rounder Eric Hurley going into the 2009 season.

Of the three Latin American right-handers tabbed by Sullivan as possibilities to "enter the discussion," 25-year-old Guillermo Moscoso (deemed the Tigers' 10th-best prospect by Baseball America two weeks ago) is perhaps the best suited to immediately help the Rangers' big league product, though more probably as a middle- or late-inning reliever than a starting pitcher in light of his past shoulder issues and apparent lack of a quality secondary pitch:

Moscoso has a quick arm and a fastball that reaches 91-92 mph with late riding action that makes it a swing-and-miss pitch. He can also use his fastball to handcuff hitters and force easy popouts. His delivery has some deception and hitters have trouble reading his pitches. He's aggressive in the strike zone and confident on the mound.

[...] Some club officials say Moscoso resembles former Tigers prospect Jair Jurrjens, a flattering comparison. If he can stay healthy and develop his secondary pitches, Moscoso could be a No. 3 or 4 starter in the majors. He could reach Detroit at some point in 2009.

In 86.2 innings split between High-A Lakeland and Double-A Erie in 2008, Moscoso fanned an eye-popping 122 batters and yielded just 21 free passes en route to crafting a superb 2.70 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, good for a nigh-incomprehensible strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 5.81. Texas would likely demand more for two years of Laird than simply Moscoso by himself, but there's enough mid-level pitching talent present in the Tigers' farm system for the two sides to strike an equitable deal.

All that said, don't set your heart on anything being completed before the onset of baseball's winter meetings next Monday in Las Vegas. Boston has a greater quantity of intriguing arms to offer Texas than Detroit does, and it's improbable the Rangers will part ways with one of their most valuable trade chips without first ensuring that they have maximized their return.

And from the "For What It's Worth" department: ESPN.com's Peter Gammons wrote on Wednesday that the Blue Jays, effectively financially paralyzed by the slumping economy, were "out of the hunt" for free-agent outfielder Milton Bradley, and boldly predicted that the Rays, in addition to a slew of other teams, would not be entering the "$10-plus million free-agent league for bats." Tampa Bay and Toronto were thought to be Bradley's most enthusiastic suitors just a matter of days ago.

Said one anonymous general manager to Gammons: "There's no question this is a dual-market situation"The corner bat/DH market is flooded, and the stock market is drowning. Not a good combination, not when pitching rules the market."

If I'm Bradley, the Rangers' arbitration offer is beginning to look more and more appealing with every passing day.

We'll be keeping it short and sweet this morning, because a long, stressful drive in Thanksgiving traffic to central Texas tomorrow awaits:

● The Mariners are expected to name Texas Rangers minor league pitching coordinator Rick Adair as the successor to bullpen coach Norm Charlton, who has been ousted from his post by new manager Don Wakamatsu; former Rangers bullpen coach Dom Chiti, a current special assistant to the general manager in Atlanta, will evidently be named Seattle's pitching coach (Geoff Baker, Seattle Times)

[Yeah, this one stings. Adair's stock has grown appreciably during the four years he has spent overseeing the Rangers' robust and burgeoning collection of young pitching talent, and it should come as no great surprise to anyone that he has now evolved into a highly sought-after commodity. Still, though, being forced to helplessly watch him jump to a division rival absolutely sucks.

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels had not yet received a formal request from the Mariners to speak with Adair as of Tuesday morning, though the organization would likely approve such a request on the basis of not wanting to inhibit Adair's opportunities for advancement in Major League Baseball.

Assuming that Adair does receive a contract offer from the Mariners and accepts said offer, the Rangers will have lost Triple-A Oklahoma pitching coach Andy Hawkins (promoted to big league pitching coach on August 1st, then re-assigned to big league bullpen coach), minor league field coordinator (promoted to big league third base coach) and Adair (departed) in less than four months. Not fatal blows by any stretch, but also not good.]

● The Red Sox are completing "due diligence" on several potential solutions to their catching situation (many of which likely do not include captain Jason Varitek), and have had the following backstops shopped to them: Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli (Angels), Brian Schneider (Mets), Miguel Montero (Diamondbacks), John Buck (Royals), Ramon Hernandez (Orioles), Bengie Molina (Giants), Carlos Santana, Kelly Shoppach and Victor Martinez (Indians), Jesus Flores (Nationals), Kenji Johima and Jeff Clement (Mariners), and Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies) (Michael Silverman, Boston Herald)

[Most of those names are pretty uninspiring, but it's painfully obvious by now that Boston doesn't simply have to settle for what the Rangers have to offer.]

● One hot rumor flying around baseball circles is the scenario where the Red Sox would sign free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, move Kevin Youkilis to third base and proceed to trade Mike Lowell and a pitcher to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Eric Ortiz, NESN.com)

[Points for creativity, I suppose. Lowell is owed $24 million over the next two seasons and is coming off arthroscopic surgery performed last month to repair a torn labrum in his hip and a bone spur on his femur, prompting skepticism on the part of rival executives with regard to the stability of the 34-year-old third baseman's health going forward.

I can't begin to fathom such a deal taking place without Boston offering significant salary relief.]

● The Angels are reportedly preparing to send free-agent southpaw CC Sabathia an offer that "approaches" the Yankees' highly publicized six-year, $140 million offer; Teixeira remains Anaheim's top priority, according to an unnamed baseball source, but the Angels are understandably reluctant to guarantee Teixeira more than seven years (Bill Shaikin, Los Angeles Times)

[Adair leaving for Seattle and Sabathia coming to roost in the AL West all in a single off-season? Good grief.]

● The Mets' aggressive push to deal right-hander Aaron Heilman apparently culminated in a straight-up offer of Heilman for Rockies right-hander Huston Street shortly after the latter was acquired from the Athletics in the blockbuster Matt Holliday trade two weeks ago, though talks cooled when Colorado demanded that southpaw reliever Pedro Feliciano be thrown in as well (Anthony DiComo, MLB.com)

Junichi Tazawa will formally announce an agreement with the Red Sox early next week, according to multiple published reports from Japan (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

[...so ends that little wild goose chase...]

● The Rangers "might be" one of eight teams interested in 33-year-old Yomiuri Giants right-hander Koji Uehara, whose consistency on the mound has recently been diminished by injuries (Nikkan Sports, as quoted by NPBTracker.com)

[...and so begins another one. The real money line on Uehara comes from ESPN.com's Jim Allen: "Although Uehara ran track in high school (because his school didn't have a baseball team), he has developed a reputation as a player who doesn't like to run and whose conditioning is suspect."

Think team president Nolan Ryan is impressed?]

● The Rangers have the best farm system in baseball (Jim Callis, Baseball America)

[Restating the obvious.]

TOKYO (Oct. 30) -- Junichi Tazawa, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher [...] whose fastball reaches 97 mph [...], was passed over by Japan's 12 professional teams in Thursday's amateur draft.

...turn into this...

[Tazawa] has good command of his fastball and slurve, but he lacks velocity, stamina and the ability to keep the ball down [...] at 22, Tazawa is unlikely to throw much harder than he does now; his fastball barely tops 90 mph when he is rested, and he struggled to hit 88 mph at the end of last season. (Jim Allen, ESPN.com)

...and, more recently, this?

The person I talked with suggested Tazawa's fastball is more in the 87-90 mph range. My guy indicated the fastball may hop a little higher for an inning, but tends to settle back into this average/just below average range. (Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News)

What's the explanation for this enormous disconnect in velocity readings? Is it simply a matter of Japan's radar guns being "juiced," so to speak? Is Tazawa's camp attempting to amplify his value by embellishing the scouting reports being transmitted stateside? And are the Major League sources deriding his enigmatic heater doing so with an ulterior motive in mind, that being to drive down his asking price so that he becomes just a bit more attainable?

It might be a little bit of all three. It's how the game is played both domestically and internationally. And before you flip out over Monday's big development (that is, the Texas Rangers submitting a very competitive bid to Tazawa's camp, reported by Japanese media outlets Nikkan Sports, Mainichi and Sponichi to be in the general vicinity of four years and $7 million), bear in mind two things:

● Boston remains the clear favorite to ink the alluring, if not overpowering Far East import; NPB Tracker forwards word from Japan that Tazawa is "set to sign with the Red Sox as early as December 1[st]," and even if reports of his commitment to the Red Sox are indeed a tad premature, you have to admit that the big league success of fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka in Boston (whom Tazawa "idol[izes]") -- and, for that matter, the perennially competitive product the Red Sox put out on the field -- are compelling reasons to settle down in the northeast.

● Assuming that the above figures are at least somewhat accurate, does anybody really think that the Rangers would actually guarantee $7 million to an entirely unproven foreign commodity with zero professional experience to his name if he was really sporting a fastball that legitimately topped out around 89 mph? I personally doubt it, but then I've been horribly mistaken before.

The thing to remember is that movement almost always trumps velocity (a 91 mph fastball with sharp two-seam breaking action is far more difficult to make quality contact with than a straight 98 mph fastball with virtually no movement), but not many right-handers can get away with that sort of underwhelming velocity and survive long in the majors, and those that do compensate with movement (Brandon Webb, though he doesn't really throw a fastball in the conventional sense, but his power sinker usually sits in the high-80s) and command (Greg Maddux), just to name a couple of notable examples.

A brief excerpt from my November 10th report on the matter, which also featured the wildly popular YouTube video of Tazawa in action that has been sighted in countless places across the Internet since he skyrocketed to international prominence seemingly overnight:

Reputedly armed with a low-to-mid 90s fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 mph, a split-fingered fastball and a "big, old-school 12-to-6 curveball" that has evoked natural comparisons to Tim Hudson (albeit with a "better curveball," according to one unnamed team official), the 5' 11", 180-pound Tazawa would not require a posting fee to sign, but could well command a Major League deal -- which would entail committing a valuable 40-man roster spot -- and a signing bonus in excess of $5 million in order to settle on a specific stateside destination.

One anonymous scout was decidedly less bullish in his assessment of Tazawa, who has pitched at what David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently described as being roughly equivalent to "perhaps A-ball or borderline Double-A ball," with Braves general manager Frank Wren likening it more to college-level competition: "His fastball is 88 to 93 [mph] ... he has a forkball, a curve, but the command of his fastball is so-so. His lower body is stiff."

[...] The consensus around the game appears to be that Tazawa's talent level is comparable to that of a first-round pick in MLB's amateur draft, but a bidding war could conceivably send his price soaring into Pedro Alvarez territory and beyond -- a princely sum that not even affluent clubs like Boston and New York would indiscriminately meet without careful deliberation beforehand.

Not only have we now reached (and surpassed) Pedro Alvarez territory (Alvarez signed a restructured deal worth $6.4 million with the Pirates back on September 22nd), but all four teams that have reportedly submitted offers for Tazawa's services -- Texas, Boston, Atlanta and Seattle -- have offered Major League contracts, which would necessitate his immediate placement on some lucky team's 40-man roster.

That wouldn't be a huge deal for the Rangers at the moment, particularly given that Willie Eyre presently occupies one of those roster spots and would represent no great loss if he were designated for assignment tomorrow (though Texas presumably saw something worthwhile in him to deem him a worthwhile addition in the first place), but 40-man roster space is already tight enough without having to essentially write off a precious roster spot for as long as it takes Tazawa to develop into a pitcher capable of surviving in the majors.

That could be late 2009. That could be 2010 or 2011. That could also be never. Your guess is as good as mine.

● MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan writes that Rangers general manager Jon Daniels continues to insist upon Clay Buchholz being included in any deal he completes with the Red Sox, and it's becoming increasingly clear that this deadlock will likely not be broken until next month's winter meetings in Las Vegas. There doesn't appear to be a quick resolution in sight.

● According to Melvin Roman (the representative of free-agent infielder Ramon Vazquez), the Diamondbacks have offered his 32-year-old client a one-year deal with an attached second-year team option. At least one other club has offered Vazquez more money than Arizona, though it's unclear at this point which club that is.

● Texas remains "open" to dealing either Kevin Millwood and/or Vicente Padilla, per FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

Is anybody honestly surprised that the Bowl Championship Series is once again an unmitigated mess?

...if the Boston Red Sox pony up the $50 million-plus necessary to sign an A.J. Burnett or a Derek Lowe and reinforce their starting rotation (which is already comprised of Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield)...

...and if the Red Sox choose to part ways with captain Jason Varitek, whom they have reportedly offered a one-year contract that "[doesn't] approach the annual average ($13.1 million) commanded by Jorge Posada" (Varitek's base salary in 2008 was $9 million, so it seems quite within the realm of possibility that Boston is offering him no raise, or is perhaps even requesting that he take a pay cut in order to stay in Beantown)...

...and if the Red Sox make the determination that they absolutely must part ways with some of their young pitching depth to shore up their volatile catching situation, a potentially risky proposition in light of the injuries that slammed their pitching staff in 2008...

...and if the Rangers agree to part ways with a young, talented but still-raw trade sweetener (most probably one of the many Latin American arms that pepper the lower levels of this organization)...

...then Texas just might find a way to pry Clay Buchholz from the grasp of Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein without having to relinquish Taylor Teagarden, presumably employing Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the centerpiece of such an offer. Maybe.

Sounds like a plan to me.

By the way, Hideaki Okubo, manager of Junichi Tazawa's semi-pro industrial squad (Nippon Oil), informed the Associated Press that the 22-year-old Japanese right-hander received a "lucrative" offer from the Rangers on Monday and is expected to make a final decision on his future by the end of the week.

The Rangers' bid, while evidently "the most attractive in terms of contract amount and duration" of any of the offers Tazawa has fielded to date (and the apparent product of a two-hour meeting between Tazawa and the Rangers' director of Pacific Rim operations, Jim Colborn, who classifies his fastball as merely "average" but his breaking pitches as "above-average"), is thought to be behind Boston's leading offer of $6 million, and it's expected -- albeit not definite -- that he'll forgo the extra cash to join the Red Sox. The Braves and Mariners have also formally submitted offers.

For what it's worth, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels refuses to confirm or deny the Rangers' purported contract offer.

Baseball America's Matt Eddy reports that the Rangers have re-signed right-hander Elizardo "Lizard" Ramirez to a minor league deal.

Stay tuned.

That three-way deal, completed and announced less than 72 hours before the first pitch of the 2006 season was tossed by Opening Day starter Kevin Millwood, expelled the Rangers' probable No. 5 starter from the picture after he spent six-plus years toiling within the organization's ranks, and was comprised of the following moving parts:

Chicago Cubs traded John Koronka and cash to Texas Rangers as part of three-team trade in which Oakland Athletics sent John Rheinecker to Texas Rangers; Oakland Athletics sent Freddie Bynum to Chicago Cubs; and Texas Rangers sent Juan Dominguez to Oakland Athletics.

I would quietly submit that few trades that ultimately turn out to be as largely irrelevant as this one was initially generate the kind of commotion that this one did. Dominguez's remarkable inherent talent and tantalizing flashes of success -- the hype machine was really kicked into high gear during the span of one month late in the 2005 season, when Dominguez notched six quality starts in seven tries and posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 40 innings -- had long been overshadowed by maddening, well-publicized lapses in his off-the-field concentration and dependability, and it was because of that apparent immaturity that the Rangers only very grudgingly named him their fifth starter when Adam Eaton succumbed to the effects of an injured tendon in his right middle finger during his final start of the spring, knocking him out of action for nearly four months.

Alas, Daniels pulled the trigger on the deal that brought the 25-year-old Koronka and the 26-year-old Rheinecker (and an undisclosed sum of cash from the Windy City) to Texas less than 24 hours after proclaiming that a trade was "unlikely," essentially placing the Rangers on the losing end of the deal in terms of pure talent attained from the outset. Oh, the uproar that ensued.

With the power of 20/20 hindsight firmly in our corner, we can now perform a Scott Lucas-ian dissection of one of the more surprising trades of Jon Daniels' tenure in Texas and determine (or at least attempt to determine) just how much value each team involved in the three-way trade individually derived from their acquisition(s), using WARP1 (Wins Above Replacement Level) and The Hardball Times' version of Bill James' Win Shares:

In the interest of brevity, I've combined Koronka and Rheinecker's contributions underneath a single heading; it should also be noted that three win shares are equivalent to one team win, according to James' metric. It's an imperfect method of player evaluation, but it's satisfactory for what we're hoping to accomplish here.

Koronka admirably filled the role of fifth starter in 2006 -- for a while. After riding his low-90s heater, above-average change-up and decent control to a 3.55 ERA through May 3rd, a 4.06 ERA through May 26th and a 4.63 ERA through July 9th (and all this in spite of not being able to strike anybody out), the unstable peripheral foundation upon which his success had been built began to crumble, and after three abhorrent starts in five tries, he was banished to Triple-A Oklahoma for the remainder of the year.

Two equally uninspiring spot starts in May 2007 denoted the end of the line for Koronka in Texas, and he was designated for assignment on July 1st, 2007, claimed off waivers by the Indians, inked to a minor league deal by the Rockies after declaring his post-season free agency, and then finally granted his release in June 2008 so that he could join the Orix Buffaloes of NPB's Pacific League. His 2009 plans are not immediately known.

Two separate stints in the Rangers starting rotation -- one in 2006, and one in 2007 -- for Rheinecker were punctuated by alternating periods of brilliance and ineptitude, and the Rangers finally made the keen determination that his murderous tendencies against left-handed batters would serve him well as a situational reliever. Unfortunately, Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and May 2008 arthroscopic shoulder surgery knocked him out of the Rangers' plans, and it appears that his career in Texas has finally drawn to a close.

Bynum exhibited the positional flexibility one normally associates with the 25th man on a team's active roster, playing all three outfield positions and second base for Chicago in 2006 while hitting a respectable .257/.308/.456 and swiping eight bases in 12 attempts. Ironically, the 66-96 Cubs undoubtedly could have measurably benefited from Koronka's services -- only Carlos Zambrano (214 IP), Greg Maddux (136.1 IP) and Sean Marshall (125.2 IP) logged triple-digit inning totals for a pitching staff that was decimated by injuries and ineffectiveness.

Fortunately for Chicago, the Orioles were so enamored by Bynum that they shipped right-hander Kevin Hart to the Cubs in exchange for his services in December 2006; Hart was tabbed by industry publication Baseball America as the Cubs' 10th-best prospect going into the 2008 season, and assuming that the cutter-employing 26-year-old manages to carve out a Kameron Loe-like niche on Chicago's pitching staff, the Cubs will eventually win the Chicago-Oakland-Texas deal in terms of total big league output. Bynum has done absolutely nothing since.

And what of Juan Dominguez, who was by far the biggest name included in the original deal? The ending to this story doesn't appear to be a happy one: after being assigned to Oakland's Triple-A affiliate, Sacramento, to begin the 2006 season, Dominguez went on to record the worst single-season performance of his professional career, posting a miserable 5.83 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 88 innings as his once-enticing peripherals quickly deteriorated into mediocrity.

Shelved in July as the result of a season-ending ankle injury, Dominguez was released after the 2006 season, and did resurface for Saraperos de Saltillo of the Mexican League in 2007, though that doesn't conceal the regrettable truth that he has not pitched stateside, either in the minor league or independent league circuits, in two and a half years. Not lookin' good.

All in all, the Rangers have come out approximately two to three wins ahead of Chicago and a bit more than that ahead of Oakland -- not a negligible sum, of course, but hardly significant. What Kevin Hart does over the next several years will likely push the Cubs ahead in both departments, but then there's no such thing as a sure thing in baseball, sports, or life in general.

Just ask Juan Dominguez.

● The Padres may be willing to trade third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff to clear room for a return to the hot corner for talented 24-year-old outfielder Chase Headley, but Texas doesn't seem particularly interested in the former and doesn't believe the latter is available (Sullivan)

[Fun fact: Kouzmanoff has drawn more than 32 walks in a season just once -- 44 walks at Low-A Lake County in 2004 -- and posted an unyieldingly poor 3.6 percent walk rate in 668 plate appearances with the Padres in 2008. It's true that pitcher-friendly Petco Park has been a drag on his overall numbers, but there's something distinctly Kevin Mench-ian about the sharp decline he has endured in terms of being able to consistently induce bases on balls, and that, coupled with his absolutely horrendous second half -- .241/.272/.422 in 287 PA -- and unexplainable flip-flopping lefty/righty splits, is plenty enough cause for concern.

Want to take a shot at Headley, who was tabbed by industry publication Baseball America as the game's 32nd-best prospect before the 2008 season and produced modestly well in his rookie campaign? Then get ready to pony up one of the heralded Big Three -- Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland or Michael Main -- and some other goodies just to keep Padres general manager Kevin Towers on the line.]

● The Reds might make third baseman Edwin Encarnacion available, but Texas isn't enthralled by his shoddy glovework, astutely recalling that miserable defense at the hot corner was one of the team's biggest Achilles' heels in 2008 (Sullivan)

[And shortstop, and second base, and first base, and...]

● Free-agent infielder Ramon Vazquez has fielded offers from the Diamondbacks and another unnamed team; he has apparently not backed off his demands of a multi-year contract (Nick Piecoro, Arizona Republic)

[I've been trying to decide whether Vazquez's dramatic drop-off in offensive output late in the 2008 season was an statistical aberration or a harbinger of things to come; legendary hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo has a definite history of resurrecting one-time fringe big leaguers and developing them into useful players, so I suppose it would be silly to bet against Rudy, but I don't have a real great feeling about Vazquez away from Jaramillo's watchful eye.]

● Finally, the Braves, Dodgers and Mets are believed to be among teams that have inquired about veteran right-handers Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, both of whom have one guaranteed year left on their multi-year contracts and could help a contending team; Millwood has a limited no-trade clause (Jon Heyman, SI.com)

[Dave Cameron pointed out at FanGraphs that virtually all of the notable signings and trades that have been made thus far this off-season have been in the buyer's favor; the market has noticeably shifted, and it would be reckless to assume that either Millwood or Padilla would net much more than a B-level prospect or two individually.

I will say this: if Millwood or Padilla are indeed moved in what essentially amounts to a salary dump (see also: Nick Swisher), it will be a move that financially enables something else. Texas won't make that sort of trade just for the hell of it.]

Chew on that.

Additionally, we've rolled out a new Prospect Map page -- made possible through the technological miracle that is Google Maps -- that will, in time, feature placemarks and biographical data for many of the Texas Rangers' prospects and graphically portray just how diverse this farm system truly is.

Stay tuned.

● Mike Hindman of the Dallas Morning News seems moderately pleased, if not deliriously overjoyed, by yesterday's John Mayberry-for-Greg Golson swap, correctly suggesting that athletic, defensively adept outfielders with even a flicker of power are usually attractive trade chips and implying that the loss of Mayberry shouldn't sting too much in the long run:

Progress in the rebuilding of Mayberry's swing -- to the extent there has been any -- has been halting at best. I told someone earlier this year that the only good things I could say about Mayberry were that he had a good arm and could run into a fastball every now and again. His effort in right field (how do I say this?) often left a lot to be desired.

Presented here with the intention of furthering your baseball edification is a video of Golson going deep for the Reading Phillies against Double-A Altoona of the Eastern League in a 7-3 victory on April 13th:

[Direct link available here.]

● ESPN.com's Jayson Stark wrote yesterday that the Rangers were one of six teams "actively looking" for a closer if "the right short-term fit" was available, and went on to indicate that Texas was one of at least a dozen teams that had expressed some degree of interest in free-agent outfielder Raul Ibanez (assuming that the Rangers fail to re-sign Milton Bradley), who hit a quality .293/.358/.479 (124 OPS+ and .296 EqA) with 23 home runs in 707 plate appearances and played a full 162 games for the division-rival Mariners during his age-36 season in 2008, but who is also an atrocious left fielder defensively, collectively making 43 fewer plays than the league-average left fielder over the last two seasons according to the defensive plus/minus system and faring rather badly in David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range.

One anonymous general manager quoted by FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal predicts that Ibanez will receive a three-year deal worth between $8 million and $12 million per season, presumably meaning he'll net at least $20 million guaranteed even if the market stalls out.

● Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus has returned after a long hiatus to offer some musings on this winter's Japanese talent market, and he evidently isn't a big fan of 22-year-old right-hander Junichi Tazawa, who is known to be a player of interest to the Rangers:

He is a serviceable pitcher with a fair bit of upside; he has decent stuff. But if there's one thing that I've learned a little something about concerning Japanese players in my years following the game here, it's this: unless the player in question is one of his generation's great performers, it's unlikely that he'll make it in the major leagues.

Just look at recent experience. Matsuzaka looks like he has a fair shot at a Cy Young at some point. His peer, Hiroki Kuroda, was one of the top five or six pitchers of his generation in Japan, but looks like he'll wind up no better than a third starter in the majors. We all know what's happened to Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu, Masato Yoshii, and Kazuhisa Ishii, to name an unhappy few. Tazawa has done nothing to remotely put himself in even this latter class, but he's nevertheless seeking a guaranteed deal with your club. I'm glad it's not my money.

● Baseball America's Kary Booher has written a worthwhile primer for those who are not intimately familiar with the Rule 5 Draft process.

● Finally, right-hander Vicente Padilla has been named the Rangers' 2008 Pitcher of the Year by the local chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Skipper Ron Washington is the first-ever managerial recipient of the Harold McKinney Good Guy Award, and outfielder David Murphy has been selected to the Topps All-Rookie Team.

Padilla and Washington will be honored at the Sluggers of the West Awards Dinner at 6:30 p.m. Friday, January 23rd at Eddie Deen's Ranch in Dallas.

We already know more or less everything there is to know about Mayberry (and if you don't, do yourself a favor and read Jason Parks' excellent July assessment of the 19th-overall pick in the 2005 MLB First-Year Player Draft), so let's aim the bulk of our attention towards Golson in the form of some quick bullet points:

● A lifetime .265/.310/.406 batting line compiled over the span of 2,102 minor league at-bats (and five minor league seasons) makes the 23-year-old Austin, Texas native look a bit worse with the lumber than he actually is; after a horrific .242/.255/.359 campaign (153 AB) at Double-A Reading in 2007, Golson repeated the Eastern League in 2008 to the tune of a far more palatable .282/.333/.434, blasting 13 home runs in 426 at-bats and swiping 23 bases in 28 attempts.

That said, his plate discipline remains undeniably suspect. Golson drew just two walks at Reading in 2007 (majorly contributing to an almost unfathomable walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 0.04), though he did bump his walk rate from 1.3 percent in 2007 to 7.4 percent in 2008, suggesting that the jump widely regarded as perhaps the most difficult to successfully complete in all of professional baseball -- that is, the one from A-ball to AA-ball -- confounded him in a big way last year, and all he needed was a requisite adjustment period. Nonetheless, his walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 0.26 in 2008 was the third-worst among 25 qualifying Eastern League outfielders, and he played half his games in a relatively hitter-friendly park, so that's definitely something worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Regarded as an athlete more so than as a baseball player, Golson possesses impressive raw tools in the form of excellent speed, a powerful arm and legitimate raw power that has yet to translate into sustainable results; Parks, who has seen Golson in action several times, dutifully notes that he "makes easy plays look hard and hard plays look easy."

Now, on to the outside assessments:

● Industry publication Baseball America deemed Golson the Phillies' seventh-best prospect going into the 2008 season, identifying him as the system's best power hitter, defensive outfielder and all-around athlete and bestowing top recognition upon his speed on the basepaths and outfield arm:

Strengths: Golson's five-tool package makes him the system's top athlete. His plus-plus speed stands out the most, as he can get from the right side of the plate to first base in less than 4.0 seconds. He also provides above-average raw power, center-field defense and arm strength.

Weaknesses: Golson's ability to recognize pitches remains his biggest liability. He especially struggles with breaking balls, and tends to get tangled up thinking about what he should do at the plate rather than just seeing the ball and cutting loose. His 49-2 strikeout-walk ratio in Double-A is indicative of his problems, and he led the minors with 173 strikeouts.

The Future: Golson possesses the tools of a young Ron Gant, but he'll need to show he can make consistent hard contact and take pitches if he's going to move beyond Double-A. The Phillies think he can play a big league center field right now, and if everything clicks offensively, he could move extremely fast.

● When asked by Jay LeBlanc of the Washington Times earlier this year to describe his approach at the plate, Golson replied thusly: "For the most past it's just reacting, trying to let the ball get deeper - it keeps me from swinging at bad pitches. But for the most part, I try to hit the ball deep and see it good."

Well, okay.

● One veteran National League scout said during the 2007 Fall Instructional League that Golson's arm and speed were both clear 80s on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, labeled him as a potential "late bloomer" and submitted that "if he leaves his brain in the clubhouse and just goes out there and reacts, he's one of the best prospects in the game."

● Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tabbed Golson as Philadelphia's 10th-best prospect before the 2007 season, pointing out that "on pure athleticism, nobody in the Phillies organization matches him, and few players in the minors can equal his potential as a power/speed combination, as Golson is a plus-plus runner with the bat speed and raw strength to hit for power." On the flip side, Goldstein suggested Golson's approach at the plate was "non-existent," and criticized his sloppy swing mechanics while noting that "his swing has a loop in it that prevents the bat from getting through the zone on a single plane."

Golson did not register on Goldstein's 2008 list, though he was apparently ranked in the number 11 to 13 range.

Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News implies that the Rangers see Golson as a center fielder more so than as a corner outfielder, though the current big league outfield logjam probably precludes a legitimate push by Golson to make the team next spring unless some sort of trade is consummated that removes Marlon Byrd, Brandon Boggs, Nelson Cruz or David Murphy from the picture. It's unlikely this move was made in a complete vacuum, however.

This isn't over.

Southpaw Sam Narron, the club's 15th-round selection in that same draft, followed a similarly bizarre career path: after posting a 12-1 record in 114 combined innings between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Oklahoma in 2004, Texas called up the 23-year-old lefty killer for a single start against Oakland on July 30th in Arlington, which resulted in Narron yielding four earned runs on five hits and four walks and being knocked out of the game after just 2.2 innings.

The Rangers went on to fashion yet another late-inning rally that so typified that remarkable 2004 season (Laynce Nix smashed the eventual game-winning RBI single in the bottom of the eighth inning), but Narron's unimpressive Major League debut evidently wasn't good enough for a pitching-deficient, yet oddly competitive Rangers team that gave multiple-start auditions to the likes of Mike Bacsik, Nick Bierbrodt, Scott Erickson and Nick Regilio that season. Narron was promptly banished to the minor leagues and never heard from again -- the Brewers nabbed him off waivers on September 24th, 2004 (one day after arguably the most dramatic finish this franchise has seen in a decade), but he succumbed to Tommy John surgery and missed the entirety of the 2005 season; Narron has since re-emerged as capable minor league rotation filler.

Why am I resurrecting all of this long-forgotten history? Simple. Of the 50 players that comprised the Rangers' 2002 amateur draft class, just three ever enjoyed a single day on the club's Major League roster: Meyer, Narron and a personable right-handed sinkerballer named Kameron Loe, who has contributed a grand total of 343.2 innings of nearly league-average baseball over the last five seasons.

Today, the last of those three amigos said goodbye.

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported early Thursday afternoon that Loe had signed a two-year, $2 million contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan's Pacific League, a transaction made possible by the Rangers opting to sell Loe's rights to the Hawks for what remains an undisclosed sum of money.

According to general manager Jon Daniels (as quoted by Mike Hindman of the Dallas Morning News), Fukuoka initially approached the Rangers about the possibility of acquiring Loe; after shopping Loe's services around but failing to find a suitable match, Daniels sought the approval of Loe and his agent for the sale of his contract.

Loe's deal is evidently structured so that he will receive a guaranteed $1.1 million, including $900,000 in 2009 and $200,000 if his second-year option is not picked up by the Hawks; otherwise, he'll bank a cool $1 million in 2010. It represents not only a pay increase of more than 100 percent over his 2008 salary of $410,960, but also an opportunity for Loe to fulfill his dreams of becoming a viable starting pitcher:

"I think it's going to be a great move for me. I'm broadening my horizons and I'm going to take it on fully. I'm excited about the entire thing. I'm excited about the culture and living in a different country and learning a new language and playing a different style of baseball."

Best of luck to Kameron, who is by all accounts one of the genuinely good guys in the game, and best of luck to Angel, his pet seven-foot Colombian red-tailed boa constrictor, who will hopefully adapt easily to the dramatic change in climate.

With Loe's departure from the organization, the Rangers' 40-man roster now consists of 36 players -- enough room to add all four players (John Mayberry, Omar Poveda, Pedro Strop, and Jose Vallejo) in danger of being selected in next month's Rule 5 Draft.

For what it's worth, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan is reporting that Texas is expected to add Poveda and Vallejo before tonight's 11:00 p.m. roster finalization deadline.

Stay tuned.

Minor league infielder Jose Vallejo (ranked 19th overall in the October 27th edition of the BBTiA Top 25 Prospect Rankings) is, by all accounts, a lock to be added; the 22-year-old speed demon fashioned a respectable .292/.345/.415, 42-steal campaign in 139 games split between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Frisco in 2008, and has consistently garnered accolades for his superb glovework, rendering him an ideal candidate to break into the majors someday soon as a quality defensive utility infielder with some degree of offensive upside.

Beyond Vallejo, however, things become increasingly difficult to sort out. Outfielder John Mayberry's long-term prospects as far as emerging as an everyday big league corner outfielder aren't looking particularly bright at the moment (he's failed to meet the admittedly lofty expectations placed upon his broad shoulders as a result of being the Rangers' first-round pick in the 2005 MLB First-Year Player Draft, and also as a result of industry publication Baseball America tabbing him as the organization's fifth-best prospect before the 2007 season), but he still possesses the tape-measure home run power that so tantalized the John Hart-led front office regime during the summer of 2005, and he still possesses a decent enough chance of eventually providing some utility to the Rangers -- albeit as a 25- or 26-year-old -- that Texas isn't likely to recklessly expose him to the Rule 5 Draft after sinking so much development time into him. It's possible, but unlikely.

That leaves just the intriguing Latin American tandem of homegrown right-hander Omar Poveda and recently pilfered reliever Pedro Strop on the outside looking in as far as the most plausible candidates for selection in the Rule 5 Draft are concerned. Unfortunately, barring a trade or a designation for assignment involving one of the 37 players currently on the 40-man roster, there's only room for one of those two arms. Both are probably coin flips, at that; Poveda's brimming with talent and would probably score a top-10 ranking in some minor league systems, but also hasn't pitched above Bakersfield, and Strop could conceivably be drafted, stashed away on an enterprising club's 15-day or 60-day disabled list, and left to rehabilitate his surgically repaired elbow at extended spring training for several months before said club has to worry about activating him to its 25-man roster.

I believe most of us can agree that it would sting to lose either player over a single roster spot, so assuming that no trades are completed by the front office within the next 24 hours, let's play a quick game of "Whom should the Rangers cut so that they aren't forced to place Poveda or Strop in Rule 5 limbo?" by taking a brief look at five top candidates for subtraction from the 40-man roster, based upon their present levels of value to the organization:

Frank Catalanotto: With his disconcerting transformation from a quality walks-n'-doubles machine into a well-paid professional benchwarmer almost complete, Catalanotto's unfriendly contract -- which pays him a guaranteed $4 million in 2009, and also includes a $5 million option for 2010 with a $2 million buyout -- is a curse twice over; not only have the Rangers predictably proven incapable of finding a suitor willing to assume the considerable remaining balance on their rapidly declining player's contract (and willing to give up something of tangible value, as well as a roster spot, for that privilege), but there also appears to be some reluctance on the part of the Rangers to admit that he's a sunk cost and simply cut him loose.

The end result? A 40-man roster albatross who ostensibly could still offer some value to a team unconcerned with his defensive shortcomings and thirsting for a reliable pinch-hitter, but who probably won't get that opportunity -- or not yet, at least. Texas may well trade Catalanotto and some cash for a Michael Hernandez-type bounty (and I'm using the term "bounty" very, very loosely here) at some point in the next two months, but it likely won't happen in time to open up a roster spot for Poveda or Strop.

Kameron Loe: A surprisingly decent reliever for Texas in 2008, Loe upped his strikeout rates (12.7 percent in 2007 to 14.9 percent in 2008), slashed his walk rate (9.1 percent to 6.0 percent), surrendered fewer line drives than ever before (17.5 percent to 16.2 percent) and ramped his average fastball velocity back up near his 2005 level of 89.9 mph (89.5 mph, according to Baseball Info Solutions) after making the full-time transition from the starting rotation back to the bullpen, resulting in a steady 3.23 ERA compiled over 30.2 innings in relief with Texas in 2008.

He may never develop the third pitch necessary for his dreams of becoming a full-time starting pitcher to come to fruition, but cutting bait with Loe could come back to bite the Rangers. "The Snake" isn't such a bad little reliever, after all, and while he'll always be somewhat hittable, he's not nearly as superfluous a piece as some perceive him to be.

Wes Littleton: Like Loe, Littleton has no minor league options remaining and thus must be exposed to league-wide waivers if he is to be outrighted from the 40-man roster. And after his uninspiring 2008 campaign spent between Triple-A Oklahoma and Texas, there's probably a fair chance the 26-year-old sidewinder would sneak through waivers.

Luis Mendoza: I wrote this back on September 23rd:

[...] Mendoza, on the other hand, will probably find himself sent to the back of the relief line, and might well find himself jettisoned from the club's 2009 plans entirely given his inexplicably poor performance on the big league bump this season, which includes bearing the bulk of the responsibility for last night's 11th-inning loss. Dig beyond the 8.66 ERA (50 ERA+) and 1.91 WHIP compiled over 62.1 innings this season, and you'll find a pitcher who has posted an inconceivably poor VORP of -32.0 this season.

That mark represents not only the worst VORP in baseball in 2008, but also the worst single-season VORP in baseball since 2000, when a 23-year-old by the name of Roy Halladay notched a -36.5 VORP over 67.2 innings, remarkably making 13 starts and six additional relief appearances before being demoted to High-A Dunedin to begin the 2001 season - a daring strategy, which the Rangers similarly employed with Edinson Volquez last year, that has since been dubbed the "Halladay treatment."

Two years and a boatload of mental and mechanical adjustments later, he won the American League Cy Young Award. But that's not the point. Rather, the point is that Mendoza will probably have to make some radical changes to his game, or suddenly have the proverbial light bulb go off in his head, in order to convince the organization that he deserves a second extended opportunity in the majors.

Mendoza, for what it's worth, finished the season with a -31.6 VORP -- and that, for the sabermetrically uninitiated, means his 2008 big league pitching performance was cumulatively 31.6 runs below replacement-level, which is simply atrocious. That mid-90s sinker of his remains incredibly enticing, but it's clear he has a very long way to go. Whether that equates to him being axed from the 40-man roster Armando Galarraga style is not yet clear, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility.

The Field (Kason Gabbard, Doug Mathis, Dustin Nippert, Joaquin Arias, Travis Metcalf): Don't foresee any surprise roster cuts coming from this group.

One last note: Major League teams are not prohibited from removing players from their 40-man rosters after the November 20th roster cutoff date and before the Rule 5 Draft; they are, however, precluded from adding minor league players between November 20th and the draft, and are permitted to add only Major League free agents.

Happy roster-crunching.