Winners and Losers of the Draft
It is difficult to say 2 days after the draft who are the real winners and losers of the draft. Obviously it will take 3 - 5 years down the road to tell the full story, and signability will play a prominent role undoubtedly.
With that said here are the preliminary winners and losers:
WINNERS
San Fransisco Giants - First thing hat jumps off the page is the number of college players taken compared to the number of high school players in 2007 (although that was a good draft too).
Added some college bats to go along with the high school arms they chose in 2007. Buster Posey will be a fast moving catcher who will be a solid #2 hitter. Connor Gillaspie is a gritty 3B who will hit for average, but little power - great value at 37. Roger Kieshnick from Texas Tech needs to develop, he is not as polished as Posey and Gillaspie. However, he could be a solid major leaguer. Brandon Crawford, SS, from UCLA projected to be a 1st round pick at the beginning of the season as he has a plus arm and glove at SS. His inability to make contact is holding him back. If nothing else, he could be a good defensive SS. Eric Surkamp is a tall LHP, who has played against great ACC competition.
Kansas City Royals - I do not like the Hosmer over Smoak pick, unless he plays RF. I do not feel he has SO much more upside over Smoak to justify more money and more risk. However, they did draft the best high school hitter in the draft.
The Royals then went on to draft pitchers left and right. If they sign Tim Melville it would go a long way to rebuilding that team.
Tampa Bay Rays - Try to hold back the surprise that they drafted well again.
Got maybe the best overall talent in the draft in Tim Beckham then added a projectable and polished LHP in Kyle Lobstein. Lobstein was in the mix as a top 30 pick for most of the year. Great value at 47.
Also added a dark horse catching prospect in Jacob Jeffries from UC Davis. Needs to add some power but a good contact hitter.
Baltimore Orioles - YES, those Baltimore Orioles.
After what looks to be a good 2007 draft, and the Bedard trade, the Orioles have again added some nice pieces to their system. Brain Matusz is a quick moving LHP who should buzz through class A in a hurry. Needs to refine command of FB. Could see him in the majors in 2009.
They will have to sign Xavier Avery away from playing running back for the University of Georgia. If they do, they get one of the fastest players in the draft. Added another speedy CF in Kyle Hudson.
Milwaukee Brewers - High upside high school playesr. No surprise.
Love their first two picks. Brett Lawrie has as much potential as any high school hitter. Jake Odorizzi was in the mix as one of the best high school arms in the draft.
Their current system allows them to draft high upside players and let them develop as they have help on the way in LoPorta and Gamel.
LOSERS
Houston Astros - If I could ask that front office one thing it would be “in the next 5 years, where do you expect your team to come from”. As in, they do not have many projectable major leaguers in that system. It will be almost all through free agency. In this fay and age, that is a recipe for disaster.
Talk of the draft - in a bad way. Passing up on Smoak for Castro. I would love to know the reason for the Astros burning desire for catchers - they took Max Sapp in 2006 (and has stunk up class A) they rushed JR Towles and have now demoted him. I like Castro more than both of those 2, as he could be a very solid major leaguer, but it is obvious Castro was a signability pick.
Jordan Lyles was not on anyones radar until the 6th or 7th round. Astros take him in the supp. round as a signbility pick, and they have already signed him.
I like the Ross Seaton pick alot. They need to sign him though. Taking him at 109 does not strike me as a real attempt to sign him. He is going to want more than 109 money.
Chicago Cubs - draft lacks overall upside
How does Andrew Casher make sense for them? They already have a great bull pen. I assume they want to add to it come August. This is a front office who overpaid for Scott Eyre and Bob Howry, so maybe they wanted to develop their own piece of the pen. I understand that they have a very good team this year and maybe want to cement their chances of winning now.
Ryan Flaherty - seems like an overdraft to me. Could be an average big leaguer down the road. They drafted similar college SS in Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, however. Pick does not have much upside.
Chris Carpenter - THERE is an upside pick - however past arm injuries and lack of results are the risk.
Philadelphia Phillies - They have maybe ONE above average major leaguer in that system right now in Carlos Carrasco. What do they do? Draft guys who have a less than 10% chance of getting out of A ball and are about 5 years away.
They passed on college pitching and bull pen help to draft Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, and Anthony Goose. I like drafting 1 of those guys, or 2 of them. But all 3 could wind up making this draft a wash for them.
I really would have liked it if they drafted Christian Freidrich over Hewitt. They would have added a polished middle of the rotation arm to go with the upside of the other 2 high school players. Now they are stuck with all upside and no one who will be developed in a few years. With the continual pressure to win every year in Philly, Pat Gillick maybe not be around to find out how his picks panned out.
I KNOW the whole “draft best player” theory. However, you do not do that the entire draft or you are left with all upside guys and too many busts. At some point down the road your team will need to pluck someone from their system and you did not add enough higher probability picks.
State of Georgia packs a punch
Being from Atlanta, allow me to comment on the baseball talent in the state of Georgia. Texas and California have as much talent, but when you consider how much bigger those states are than Georgia, it is remarkable how many good prospects come out of the Georgia.
Brave’s scouting director Roy Clark has made a career of drafting Georgia HS players - every year they take player from the state, and some of their best prospects have come from the state.
But check out all the players from Georgia taken in the first 60 picks.
Tim Beckham
Gordon Beckham
Josh Fields
Ethan Martin
Xavier Avery
Josepth Austin
6 guys taken in the first 60 picks from the state of Geogria. The East Cobb region, just north of Atlanta is so rich with talent it is almost unbelievable.
Hits and Misses of the 1st Round
Hit - Pedro Alvarez to the Pirates
Miss - Posey to the Giants. They needed more upside with that pick
Miss - Yonder Alonso to the Reds. WHY!??
Home run - Aaron Crow to the Nationals..most dominating pitching drops to #9
Strikeout - Astros go with ANOTHER catcher (Jason Castro) over Smoak. The missed with Max Sapp in 2006.
Hit - Mets get two good college hitters - Ike Davis and Reese Havens in the 1st round
Miss - Everyone letting Shooter Hunt drop to 31
Hit - Brewers get two very good high school players in Brett Lawrie and Jake Ordirizzi
Hit - Braves take best HS lefty in the draft, Brett DeVall
Miss - San Diego going with Allan Dykstra over the multitude of pitchers available
Miss - Phillies going with huge upsides in Hewitt and Collier - miss because they have next to NOTHING on the horizon in that system. Both of these guys are 4+ years away.
