MVN: Most Valuable Network

Comparing Trevor Ariza and Ron Artest

Following the team's de facto "trade" of SF Trevor Ariza to Houston for SF Ron Artest, ESPN's Chris Broussard excitedly declared the Los Angeles Lakers the 2010 NBA World Champions.  But does the evidence support such hubris?  I don't think it necessarily does.

I compared Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza to the average NBA small forward in 7 important statistical categories:  the ability to convert possessions into points (Pts per 100 poss), the ability to get the ball back for your team (Possessions Created per 48), the ability to create your own shot (% of assisted FGs made vs. NBA average), assist rate, block rate, and personal foul rate.  I also went back and calculated each player's ability to create wins for his team by measuring his Marginal Win Score per 48 minutes for the last 3 seasons and for his career.

It turns out Trevor Ariza is the more productive small forward, and since he is younger, he clearly seems to be the one I would have wanted to keep. 

Breaking Down the Numbers

The statistics show that neither player is a very efficient scorer, but surprisingly, Ariza is slightly better than Artest.  Both are very good at getting the ball back for their team, but Ariza qualifies as exceptional.  On the other secondary statistics, Artest is slightly better at all 3.  He is a better passer, a slightly better shot blocker, and he commits fewer fouls.  In most ways, then, Ariza and Artest are very comparable, except in terms of rebounding, where Ariza is dominant.  This seems to give him the productive advantage.

Yet Artest is probably viewed as the better player by the basketball establishment.  Why?  I think it is because Artest is much better than Ariza at "getting his own shot".  I measure this skill by comparing the player's percentage of "Assisted Field Goals" to the NBA average.  But, while highly respected among NBA scouts, "Shot Creation" ability is of dubious win value, especially if the player is not an efficient scorer.  What good are his shot creation skills if Artest's "possessions used" turn into a fewer than average amount of Laker points?  

Besides, I'm not sure "shot creation" was a skill the Lakers were lacking.  The Lakers already have one of the best one-on-one players in basketball in Kobe Bryant, so that renders Artest's superior shot creation skills somewhat redundant.

As for defense and win creation, Artest is the slightly better defender, both on the ball and in terms of "production suppression" (Counterpart Win Score48).  But since Ariza is by far the more productive of the two in terms of personal Win Score, I have to think the better player both now and into the future would be Ariza.  And since the cost for both appears to have been almost equal, I don't know why the Lakers decided to go with Artest.

But we shall see.  I just wouldn't give the Lakers the Golden Ball just yet.  

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