by tcw1 on November 20, 2009
Another Bogut injury: Is it January already?
I was working on a post ranking this season's rookies by Win Contribution (Jennings, Ty Lawson and DeJuan Blair are way ahead of everyone else) when I saw Seattle Bucks "good news" comment about Bogut's most recent injury. I'm not really sure what the injury is or why he's out so long. The Bucks describe it as "a leg contusion". Isn't that just a fancy name for a bruise? Who knows. I'm so deflated I really don't want to comment on what I think this means for the Bucks, but this is a Bucks blog...
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I guess the best I can say is that Kurt Thomas has been a very productive backup center and win producer in the very recent past. This season his production has slipped dramatically, but its possible he could rally himself for one more big two to four week effort. I'd say he's the team's best hope.
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Outside of him, Danny G has been playing well. The thing is, I don't know if he can hold up for long periods. He did for one great season, but that was the year before Bogut arrived.
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As for Ersan Ilyasova, he's been playing very well, but he's been playing exceptionally well at power forward and poorly at center. Now, his center minutes have been limited, but for some reason I still think the production numbers are what we could expect from him over long stretches. Remember, it was only three seasons ago he was considered a small forward.
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Finally, the worst by-product of the whole Bogut injury -- like most injuries -- is what it means down the depth chart. Bogut's injury means the great "Loss Producer" Francisco Elson is back in the mix at center. That is bad, bad news. The only thing that gives me hope is that I think Skiles has finally realized that Elson is bad news, and will look for every possible alternative that does not involve giving him minutes.
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by tcw1 on November 19, 2009
Not much different from last night's projection
I just recalculated the PVOA numbers for the Bucks first 9 games, based on the additional games their past opponent have played since my last calculations. There's not a whole lot of difference between the numbers I gave last night and the new numbers... which is good, because it means the numbers are stabilizing.
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The Bucks new Offensive PVOA over the first 9 games is (-0.16). Their new Defensive PVOA is (+1.61). That projects to a record of exactly 44.0 wins and 38.0 losses.
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If you throw out the Philadelphia opening night stinker, the Bucks record projected record becomes substantially better: 50.9 wins and 31.1 losses.
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If instead you throw out the Bucks worst offensive performance (Philly) and their best defensive performance (Chicago) the Bucks projected record becomes: 48.8 wins and 33.2 losses.
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So anyway you slice it, they're off to a nice start, even after you factor in the favorable home weighting of their schedule.
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by tcw1 on November 19, 2009
The Best since Kareem??
Sidney Moncrief, Marques Johnson, Paul Pressey, Ricky Pierce, Terry Cummings, Jack Sikma, Ray Allen, Alton Lister, Sam Cassell... I realize the Bucks have been wandering lost in the NBA wilderness for a long, long, time, but that is the roll of past Buck luminaries
Sports Illustrated writer Arash Markazi blithely cast aside in deciding the two week old career of Bucks
legend errrrrrr rookie Brandon Jennings ranks him as "perhaps the best Bucks player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar"!!!!!! People, lets get a hold of our selves and let the kid breathe a little. Nothing like half crazed expectations to derail a promising future.
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I mean, my God! Did you hear the way they talk about Jennings on Bucks television? The same way the media talked about Obama just before his inauguration (notice how much more human he looks now).
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And it only begins there. Somewhere I read (and lost track of, but I assure you I saw it) a headline regarding "Jennings MVP candidacy"...
did LeBron James quit the Association?? And according to the Bucks website, when Jennings visited a Milwaukee area hospital a terminally ill woman merely touched the hem of his garment and was made whole!! (okay, that one's made up).
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But trust me, its just gonna get crazier before it gets saner. For right now, the Bucks franchise needs the jolt of goodwill, so I'll let it slide. But the media tends to love to tear down that which it works so hard to build, and in equal increments of strength, so beware of the inevitable "Jennings backlash".
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Endnote: Here's what kind of pisses me off, though. The national media is never going to admit that they were just
flat wrong in projecting the Bucks as low as they did -- with or without considering Jennings. They won't admit they did zero homework in making their collective predictions. Instead they will just as lazily claim the Bucks would have been as bad as they originally projected...
but for the addition of Jennings. Mark my words! That's what they'll say!! "It was all Jennings!" I say to them as that golf playing baby said to Shankopotamus, "Do some analytics!"
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by tcw1 on November 19, 2009
Green and Cardinal on a roll
As readers know, I use what I call "Point Value over Average" to measure the Milwaukee Bucks performances. PVOA compares the Bucks performance to the NBA venue-adjusted average and can thereby provide a picture of how the Bucks performed irrespective of their competition or where the game was played.
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By PVOA measure, last night the Bucks racked up their seventh "above average" performance in nine outings this season when they beat the New Jersey Nets handily at The Brad. By comparison, when I first starting calculating PVOA two seasons ago, the Bucks would go weeks without a single above average performance, so this streak they're on is pretty good stuff.
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Last night's game featured approximately 92.8 possessions. In that many possessions, the average New Jersey Nets road opponent has scored 93.8 points and has allowed the Nets 85.2 points. The Milwaukee Bucks scored 99 points, for a (+5.2) offensive PVOA, and allowed the Nets 85 points, for a (+0.2) defensive PVOA, and an overall PVOA of (+5.4). Not bad at all.
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For the season, then, the team's PVOA numbers stand at (-0.16) for the offense and (+1.45) for the defense. (Please remember what I wrote in an earlier post about the effect of throwing out the Philadelphia game. The offensive numbers, and indeed the overall numbers, would be substantially better.) As it stands, the Bucks projected record at the moment is
44.3 wins and 37.7 losses. (I will reproject using updated numbers from past opponents in the morning or tomorrow evening).
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Coolstandings.com has also upgraded the Milwaukee Bucks expected record to 41.4 wins and 40.6 losses. This marks the first time the site has forecast a winning season for Milwaukee. In addition, the site now puts the Bucks playoff chances at 68.6%. As my Yiddish friends would say, "From their mouths to God's ear."
Go you Bucks, Go!!
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by tcw1 on November 19, 2009
LBJ's WCI numbers exceeding his MVP season
LeBron James recently paid homage to Michael Jordan by saying the Association should retire the number 23. But by my calculations, its looking like LeBron is emerging as the better player.
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When I say "better player" I mean better "win contributor". I have no opinion about who could win a game of one-on-one if each played in his prime.
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Let me note also that I haven't calculated all of Jordan's professional seasons, but
I have calculated his most productive ones. In only one season I've calculated so far did Air Jordan outproduce his opponents to the same degree that LeBron James outproduced his last season. And this season, as I say in the post title, LeBron is at it again.
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Here is a chart of the "Win Contribution Index" numbers so far this season for each of the player's who made my "20 most valuable player" lists over the last two seasons. Please note: THIS IS NOT AN OVERALL NBA RANKING. IT IS A RANKING OF ONLY THE PLAYERS THAT MADE MY POSTSEASON WIN CONTRIBUTION LISTS THE LAST TWO SEASONS.
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As you can see from the chart, LeBron James is making another +0.900 win contribution to the Cleveland Cavaliers. How remarkable is a +0.900 WCI number? Here's an historical comparison. Based on my estimated numbers, a +0.900 WCI is right at or near the type win impact
Kareem made on the Milwaukee Bucks in the early 1970s (in fact, if LeBron played the incredible percentage of minutes the Bucks forced Kareem to play, LeBron's win contribution would be near the same as Kareem's huge 1972 season that is displayed in the linked-to chart).
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In fact, if you think about it, LeBron is to Cleveland as Kareem was to Milwaukee. Each is/was a virtual one man wrecking crew surrounded by a cast of essentially role players. And just as the Bucks brought in an aging backcourt great to try to help the frontcourt phenom Kareem get over the top, the Cavaliers have brought in an aging frontcourt great to try to help the wingman phenom LeBron get over the top. The problem is, I think the Cavs aging great has aged too far. Shaq is basically where Oscar Robertson was in 1974, not in the Bucks championship season of 1971. Shaq's "1971" happened in Miami with Dwyane Wade, I think.
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Other notes on the chart. Notice the slippage of Kobe and Kevin Garnett. I'm not saying its a sign they are both on the decline, but remember, they were each the pioneers of the "high school to NBA" era, so they are like old men in young men's bodies. They've got considerably more wear on their tires than past players of comparable age.
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Also, if you look, the Phoenix Suns are back to prominence essentially because Steve Nash has risen back to almost exactly his production of two seasons ago. But his frontcourt mate Amare Stoudamire is struggling again this season. Has microscopic surgery robbed him of a once promising career? It wouldn't be the first example. He simply doesn't rebound as he once did.
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Others who have slipped mightily include Carlos Boozer of Utah and Chauncey Billups of Denver. Boozer struggled last season and now his struggles can officially be considered a trend. Billups looked slow and aged trying to cover Brandon Jennings. His WCI has been negative for the first time in forever. In fact, Denver would be much better off playing the phenomenal rookie Ty Lawson, a player who has helped Denver stay on top by more than making up for Billups slippage.
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Other quick hits from the WCI chart:
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Chris Bosh is back on his game after an off-season
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Andre Iguodala is not to blame for Philly's struggles. He has, in fact, stepped his game way up.
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After unusually productive seasons, last year's surprises Portland C Joel Pryzbilla and Indiana PF Troy Murphy have regressed to their means.
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Boston's Rajon Rondo is proving last season was no fluke. He's making another great win contribution... but he's doing it basically with his steal production, which is off the charts.
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Dirk Nowitzki is back and better than ever.
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Lamar Odom and Kobe are off to real slow starts (NOTE: BY THEIR PERSONAL STANDARDS, NOT BY NBA STANDARDS), so the Lakers must be getting stellar production from Andrew Bynum and/or Ron Artest, because they are also missing Pau Gasol and they haven't slipped all that far.
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by tcw1 on November 19, 2009
Delfino steps up... Bucks get an easy win
I wasn't posting during tonight's Bucks game because I had to record each Bucks "Win Score Allowed" based on the reporting of ESPN's GameCast. I could not rely on the NBA.com "Play-by-Play" transcript because it did not distinguish between Nets players "Terrance Williams" and "Sean Williams". And I can't rely on my own observations because (a) My idea of what constitutes an assist is different from the NBA scorekeepers; (b) I have a tendency to lose focus, and that just doesn't work if that happens.
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Click here to see the WinStats Boxscore I came up with. WinStats Boxscore relies on basketball win metrics to identify those Bucks who were most and least responsible for tonight's win.
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Anyway, its probably good that I wasn't posting InGame because I'm sure I would have had my traditional overreaction to the first quarter shit the Bucks took on the Bradley Center floor. Skiles was not at all happy about it, either. His postgame comments indicated the Bucks slow starts are a sign they need more leadership. He does not think the team will prevail against good teams if they continue the trend.
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I'm not quite as worried about it. I mean, I was sort of half into this game, too. Its hard to get up for a 0-11 team on a Wednesday night in front of a pretty dead home crowd. I'll cut the team some slack tonight, especially based upon their effort against Dallas.
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The thing that turned the game around, in my estimation, was when SF Carlos Delfino was able to get his defensive clamps into New Jersey rookie Terrance Williams, a player who had a phenomenal first half. Williams is a very nice player. I liked him going into last summer's draft. He had good credentials coming out of Louisville, and he hasn't disappointed. But once the Bucks got the underrated defense of Delfino stuck to him in the second half, he was pretty much quiet after that. Delfino had an outstanding basketball game.
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Another swingman I liked going into the draft of two summers ago was Memphis' Chris Douglas-Roberts. It pretty much looked like I missed on him, but not anymore. He had a hugely productive night. The Bucks tried to sick Luke Ridnour on him, using the "twin turbo" double point guard Ridnour/Jennings lineup for most of the second half. Unlike Delfino on T Williams, Ridnour had decidedly less success limiting the production of Roberts. But, Ridnour had his shot going again, so Skiles stuck with him. As a result, even though Rid had a fine night of production, he basically took the comparative suck on the WinStats Boxscore because CDR produced like mad with Ridnour on him. But, thankfully, it did not really influence the outcome.
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Bogut appears to be back. As Coach Skiles rightly mentioned in his post game presser, Bogut struggled with the Nets C Brook Lopez last season. Lopez, an NBA sophomore, had what Win Contribution Index considered to be the best rookie campaign of2008-09. But tonight Bogut just outworked him. Sure, Lopez returned a few of Bogut's shots to him, but so what? Bogut outproduced the Stanford alum and his colleague Sean Williams in nearly every way, and thus Bogut made the second largest win contribution to the Bucks. Good to see because Bogut was sort of struggling a bit. Skiles mentioned Bogut may not have been feeling well of late (the flu).
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Jennings carried himself to a respectable win contribution with his defense on Rafer Alston. I don't know if Alston stinks or Jennings is just that good, but Alston basically did less than nothing. Jennings struggled a bit with the turnovers, but, again, it was good to see that his game is mature enough to overcome that with production on the defensive end and in the secondary statistical columns. Good job by the rookie. (Does anyone know what Milwaukee restaurant he went to after his 55 point performance? Apparently he received a standing ovation upon entrance.)
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I'm going to close on a slight down note. Hakim Warrick is really scuffling. Tonight should have been his night. The Nets basically played small forwards at power forward most of the night (especially in the second half). Warrick couldn't really take advantage. His shot is really off, and his defense was okay at best. Need him to step his play back up. He needs to at least find the shooting touch somehow. The Bucks can't have him producing like he produced tonight if they want to beat the better NBA teams, especially on the road.
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I'll have an updated Bucks projected record and PVOA performance calculations probably in the early morning tomorrow. I want to include the recent road performances of Detroit, Golden State, and the Knicks into my projections. I may do just the PVOA tonight.
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by tcw1 on November 18, 2009
Maybe this is why the Bucks don't sell out
This post has nothing really to do with the Milwaukee Bucks or the NBA, but I was laughing my ass off reading a post from a different blog linked to on
Footballoutsiders.com, and I thought Wisconsin readers of this blog would enjoy or at least relate to it. And on second thought, maybe it explains why the Bucks don't sell out: no pregame drinking availabilities! (Which isn't all that bad... I kind of like that you can go to an NBA game to
watch the game, but that's me... don't get me wrong, I like beer, but... at $100 bucks, I'm there to watch hoops).
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Anyway, here's the brief setup. Last Sunday during the Packers-Cowboys game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the BBC did its first ever live commentary feed of an American sporting event back to Great Britain (American football must be growing in popularity there). Before the game the BBC's Neil Reynold's was traversing the Lambeau parking lot, trying to get a feel for the American football fan through conversation. Here's how he reports on
his blog that one conversation with a Packers fan went down:
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The fans were so friendly and really did a good job of explaining to me how much the Packers mean to them and their community. At least, most of them did. I asked one guy about his game day experience and this is how our conversation went.
Me: "What do you like to do on game day here at the stadium?"
Fan: "Drink."
Me: "What is so special about a game day experience in Green Bay?"
Fan: "The drink."
Me: "But there's some good food out here as well. Is that an important part of the day?"
Fan: "Sometimes it can be. But if you eat too much, you get full - and then you can't drink."
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I know everyone reading this blog knows someone, or is someone, who would have given virtually the same set of responses (especially with a few of Milwaukee's finest in the system, which it sounds like the responder had). As I said, not so much Bucks fans (there's really no "pregame" opportunities outside the BC. I like to go to
Major Goolsby's for one before the game, but that's not at all analagous to tailgating), but most definitely Packers fans and Brewers fans. Hilarious. Wisconsin rules. As if I had to inform you of that! (cultural note: Did you ever notice Wisconsinites pronounce the state "Wiss-consin" whereas anyone not from Wisconsin tends to use what I call the "Digger Phelps" pronunciation "Wess-consin". Why is that? Query.)
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by tcw1 on November 17, 2009
Was the Warriors' CJ Watson a virus carrier on Saturday?
Golden State PG CJ Watson
has just been diagnosed with the swine flu. He was in Milwaukee playing 34 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks just last Saturday. Could he have infected the Bucks roster? I don't know what the gestation period is for the swine flu virus (is gestation even the right word?...
incubation?), or how long it exists inside a person before they begin to manifest symptoms, so I don't know if we can presume he had it then. But if he did, it stands to reason he may have infected some of the Bucks (insert joke here regarding whether any Warrior defender came close enough to infect
any Buck... and vice versa actually, seeing as how the Bucks gave up 125 points themselves).
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The reason I bring it up is I just noticed the flu
is running through the Orlando Magic roster and if it did that to the Bucks at this point in time... well, wouldn't that just be "Buck Luck" at its finest? The team has three eminently winnable games this week... games they almost
have to win... and I am projecting they should get out of this month at no worse than 10-6.
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Shoulda, coulda, woulda, though if something like the flu hits. It could reak havoc on a favorable time in the Bucks schedule. I hope the team trainer is doubling down on Vitamin C rations (I'm serious, I've read studies suggesting dosages far larger than FDA's "scurvy prevention" minimum recommendations are not only good for general health, but provide protection against this particular virus. Of course, I have no health care background of any sort whatsoever...)
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by tcw1 on November 17, 2009
Ranking down there with the NBA's most vulnerable franchises
The only down note so far this season for the Milwaukee Bucks has been home attendance, which has been fairly disappointing. The young and improving Bucks have been playing in front of Bradley Center crowds that are only 3/4ths capacity.
The team currently ranks 26th in the NBA in average home attendance. That puts them down there with the franchises most mentioned as possible acquisition targets for other cities: Memphis, Sacramento, Indiana, Charlotte, and New Jersey. Even the struggling Minnesota Timberwolves are outdrawing the Bucks by over 2,000 fans per game.
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I know there's the economy and all, but still. I would note that the Milwaukee Brewers drew over 3 million fans this summer, so... maybe the market for NBA ball just isn't that strong in Beer City. But the team used to regularly rank around the middle of the NBA in attendance in the 1980s, which is okay (in fact, during the better winning seasons for the team this decade team attendance also ranked around the middle of the NBA. That appears to be the market's peak potential). Without a doubt the team's prolonged lack of success has caused some indifference among the paying public. Maybe that needs time to reverse itself. Lets give it time and hope the situation turns around.
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by tcw1 on November 17, 2009
Should the Bucks project at 49 wins?
Below I rank the Milwaukee Bucks team performances so far using PVOA (Point Value over Average) as my opponent and venue neutral measurement. PVOA asks how the Bucks did in each game compared to the NBA average points scored and allowed per possession against the same opponent at the same venue (note: when I say "venue" I generically mean "home or road circumstance". Venue adjustment allows you to compare performances without having to consider the home court advantage).
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Remember when reading the rankings that PVOA is a fluid measurement and will change often in the early weeks of the season. Philadelphia, for instance, looked much better two weeks ago than they do today. But, as things move along they will undoubtedly fall into a normal range. (Note: At the request of a reader, an above average defensive performance is now indicated by a "+" sign. So, if the Bucks held the Lakers to 6.0 less points than the NBA per possession average, I would now say the Bucks defensive PVOA was a (+6.0). I used to say (-6.0) but I agree that was confusing).
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Ranking the Bucks Team Performances
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1. Detroit Pistons home win (+10.2)
2. Denver Nuggets home win (+7.6)
3. Minnesota Wolves road win (+4.3)
4. New York Knicks home win (+2.5)
5. Dallas Mavericks home loss (+2.3)
6. Chicago Bulls road loss (+1.6)
7. GS Warriors home win (-3.7)
8. Philadelphia 76ers road loss (-18.6)
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What if you threw out the Philly game?
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So, as you can see, the Bucks have played very well this season. All of their performances have been either above average or have ended in a win with the exception of their way below average performance in the opener against the Sixers, a performance that at the time looked like an acceptable loss, but in hindsight looks like a "bad beat". Nevertheless, the team has performed above average in 6 of 8 games... an exceptional percentage possibly indicating my 42.0 win forecast could be low (of course, we haven't yet hit the January "injury season" -- Bucks fans know what I mean by that -- so I don't want to get ahead of myself. Two other good looking seasons have been derailed by January injuries in just the short time I've been blogging about the Bucks).
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As I said, the Bucks current win projection is 42.1 wins, based on their current projected efficiency differential of (+0.78). The (+0.78) comes from the team having an offensive average of (-0.83) and a defensive average of (+1.61).
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If you consider the Sixers game an aberration and throw it out, the Bucks projected efficiency differential then becomes (+3.54), based on a much stronger offensive average (+2.71) and a weaker defensive average (+0.83). That projects to a very strong record of 48.5 wins and 33.5 losses.
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I'm not prepared to say that's the Bucks trajectory, but the evidence suggests it might be. Interestingly, last season I projected (using several different methods) that the Bucks were on course to win about 49 games before the injuries hit, so that 48.5 number looks familiar. Again, that's not what I'm saying at this point, but we will continue to monitor the situation.
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Endnote: If you figure out the projected efficiency differential by using the "mean" offensive and defensive PVOA performances (meaning the performances that would be in between their 4th best performance and their 5th best performance on each end of the court), you get a projected efficiency differential of (+2.31) and a projected win total of 46.2 wins.
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I guess the whole point of the post is this. If you consider the Bucks season as a whole, the Philadelphia opening game looks increasingly out of step with the normal Bucks performance. And if it is, that implies the Bucks may be even stronger than they appear.
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