December 31, 2008

Coolstandings Milwaukee Bucks playoff odds: nearly 80%

Bucks picture looks rosier all over

Remember when I did my first "PVOA" snapshot of the Milwaukee Bucks schedule neutral win trajectory and I had it around 35 wins, and coolstandings.com, the Monte Carlo style Win Expectancy projection site, also had them exactly at 35 wins?

Well, just to verify that I wasn't way off the reservation with my new, much better win trajectory, I checked their numbers as well.  Same story basically.

Coolstandings.com now has the Bucks Win Expectancy above 0.500, at just above 41 wins and their playoff odds at 79%.

Hollinger agrees with my Win Trajectory

I'm not sure how he does his calculations, but John Hollinger at Espn.com also has the Bucks on the exact Win Trajectory I have them on, namely a 44 win trajectory.

Hollinger's playoff odds for the Milwaukee Bucks are also rosier than coolstandings.  Hollinger has their odds at 86%.  And Hollinger ranks the Bucks as the 12th best team in the NBA. He's a believer, and by and large, he's an analyst who looks at objective data rather than intuition, so his opinion is pretty substantial. 

And I basically agree with it (and I can be harsh on the Bucks).  In fact, if I had the time to do my PVOA calculations for the entire NBA, that is about where I would project them as well... upper half of the Association, for sure.

One year ago, I think I had them ranked in the bottom 3.

 

Tags: Milwaukee Bucks; NBA; Bucks Diary: coolstandings; John Hollinger Playoff Odds

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