January 4, 2009
Bucks 5th strongest in the NBA... what's Hollinger smokin'?
5th best?! The Bucks?!
I've been making the argument for a while now that the Bucks are projecting much stronger than their record shows because of the strength of their schedule and because of the imbalance in their home/road splits.
But I'm not prepared to make them the 5th best team in the NBA! ESPN's normally staid John Hollinger is... and he's not one of these "flavor of the week" power rankings... he bases his picks (I think) on evidentiary findings.
5th best? That even looks fuzzy when I look at it through Green and Red Kareem goggles.
I think possibly the key variable that's pushing the Bucks up to fifth in his poll is "Recent Performance". If you followed my "Win Trajectory" predictions, which are somewhat similar to Hollinger's "expected wins", you will know that the Bucks' trajectory recently rocketed from around 35 wins to around 44 wins.
The strong numbers the Bucks are compiling there must somehow be overwhelming his formula. That's all I can figure.
I just don't think the Bucks are the 5th strongest team in the Association. I want them to be, but I want to maintain realism along the way up. I want to keep my feet somewhat on terra firma.
Discussion
2 Comments on "Bucks 5th strongest in the NBA... what's Hollinger smokin'?"
#1
Posted by Get Money, January 4, 2009 8:16 AM
wow that is surprisingly high
I'd say they would be more around the 10 mark BUT
if they are healthy and playing well they could easily be up there in that top 5
the Bucks really do have a lot of potential and I'm excited about what lies ahead for them
#2
Posted by paulpressey25, January 4, 2009 5:41 PM
Hollinger's formula very heavily weights performance the last ten games, along with strength of schedule and home-road games. The Bucks have extremely strong metrics right now in all three of those areas. That is what explains the high ranking.
His rankings make a good global point that the Bucks are better than their record. But there is/was also a perfect storm of the metrics he uses.



















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