MVN: Most Valuable Network

1. Bad, bad, bad

Wow.  Wow... lettin' a huge lead get away to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  I don't care if you're playing the game on the moon.... that's a bad loss.  Bad with a big "B".

Check out my depth chart.  Statistically, to be a respectable team in the NBA, you cannot lose games at home to any of the bottom 20 teams, and you cannot lose games on the road to any of the bottom 10 teams.  Those are just games you have to put in the bank, then you compete hard for all the rest.  You lose those games, you put yourself in a hole.  The Bucks are putting themselves in a hole.

Over the last 10 games, I can count 3 bad losses: Detroit at home, Philadelphia at home, and now Minnesota on the road.  Arguably, you could add Charlotte on the road to that too to make 4.  (You may quibble with Detroit, but the fact is, is a hard case for putting them in the top 10 of the NBA).  Can't do it, Bucks.

2. When you gonna check the 3s?

Once again, done in by the 3 pointer.  Tonight I'm not going to get mad.  I'm just going to ask rhetorically... why in the world are Richard Jefferson and Michael Redd and Charlie Bell sucking into the lane so damn much?  What purpose does it serve for them to leave their men open outside the arc?  None of the three ever cutoff penetration; none of them rebound worth a damn... so, please STAY OUTSIDE ON YOUR MEN YOU M%^%#@F#$#$%RS!!  There, I had my rant.  But seriously, the Twolves shot 60% from 3 point range.  How much pressure do you legitimately feel was being placed upon those shots?  And how many nights in a row will the Bucks allow the same thing to happen??

3. Wrong Paschke

Jim Paschke said the Bucks badly outshot the Timberwolves.  That is simply incorrect.  In fact, because of the Bucks Mo Williams style perimeter defense, each team ended the game with the exact same effective FG% of 60.8.  What looks transparently like a good defensive night was actually an awful one.

4. Bogut can't play the perimeter too

Andrew Bogut's presence was felt on defense.  He basically shut down Minnesota's inside game when he was in there, but the weakness for the Bucks now shoddy defense lies on the perimeter.  Poor perimeter defense, as I keep harping on, is killing them at the moment.  Bogut, did, however, make a difference... the Bucks held the Wolves to a Team Win Score of just 40.0, the first team they've held under the NBA average of 43.6 in the last 4 games.

5. Win Score Story: By WS, the Bucks should have won

The Bucks played a slightly more efficient game than the Wolves, with a Team WS of 44.5 to the Wolves aforementionted 40.0.  Under those conditions, the Bucks would be expected to win the game 58.7%. That's cold comfort.

5. PVOA Story: Defense bad again

Even though in raw terms the defense appeared to get better, in comparative terms it was not.  The defense once again allowed a staggering 111.6 points per 100 possessions to a team that was averaging at home 100.4 points per 100 possessions, for a defensive PVOA of -11.2, exactly, as the post two back indicated they had been allowing over the past four games.  The offense, on the other hand, was only +7.6.  EDIT:  I just noticed something... the PVOA numbers are nearly exactly the same as the ones I calculated over the 4 games without Bogut (see, "The Ugly numbers without Bogut").  Thus, the team played no better despite having him back -- no wonder I got so close on my game score prediction.  All in all, though, that's scary.  That means that as a team we are trending downward.

That's the thing with offense... if you rely on it too much, you're going to get burned.  That's why I'm so frustrated with the Bucks latest turn.  Let's go back to playing good defense.  Its much more reliable.

6. Kevin Love is a rebounding machine

Kevin Love doesn't look like much waddling around out there, but he is a TREMENDOUS rebounder.  He's got great hands, and he just wants the basketball.  Tonight he had 12 rebounds in only 22 minutes, and though he only took 4 shots, he put up Win Score points at +0.444 per minute.  He's one of those, "don't let your eyes fool you" players.  I'd take him in a second.  He can rebound against anyone or anything.