MVN: Most Valuable Network

I'm trying to put together a shorthand basketball version of the Davenport Translations.  So far, all I have are a couple of platitudes, but two of them could be useful in evaluating this year's top prospect, Oklahoma C/PF Blake Griffin.

1. Be wary of the high collegiate eFG

Unless the big man's name is Shaquille O'Neal, it is difficult to find a big man who has a Field Goal % in the upper 50s in college who does not experience a rather sharp decline when they enter the professional ranks.  I believe this reflects the fact that they were afforded too many easy baskets in college and are therefore unpolished offensively.  They do not know how to score the basketball against competent defense, in other words.  Examples this year are Greg Oden (61.6% to 43%) and Kevin Love (56% to 40%), both of whom are going through an offensive adjustment period.  One can probably expect the same thing from Griffin,who is currently shooting 66% from the field.  Having watched him briefly, he does not appear to have very polished offensive skills, thus he is ripe for this adjustment.

2. How many "easy" rebounds in college?

Last season, Kevin Love acquired 29% of UCLA's defensive rebounds, and around  the same % of their offensive rebounds.  Thus, one can suppose he got few "gimme boards", and thus would probably continue to rebound on the next level.  And he has... at the very same pace adjusted rate he did in college.  Likewise, Greg Oden has proven to be a prolific NBA rebounder, after getting less than his fair share of defensive rebounds in college (he grabbed 31% of Ohio State's offensive rebounds and only got 24% of their defensive rebounds... he was voracious).  On the other hand, Michael Beasley acquired 34% of Kansas State's defensive rebounds, and only 23.5% of their offensive rebounds.  Thus, it would have been smart to question the amount of "padding" in his rebounding statistics.  Apparently, there was quite a bit.  This season he's grabbing 14.2% of Miami's offensive rebounds and only 11.5% of their defensive rebounds, and his rebounding statistics have plummetted.  In another example, Kevin Durant grabbed 32% of Texas' defensive rebounds and only 22% of their offensive rebounds, and his rebounding numbers have not (until recently) been very good in the professional ranks.  Blake Griffin is currently grabbing a whopping 40% of Oklahoma's defensive rebounds and only 24% of their offensive rebounds.  That will not translate.

I've got some other platitudes and warning signs, which I will roll out in the coming  weeks.