Bucks vs. Timberwolves

Tonight the Bucks take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, an improved team, especially when they play at the Target Center, the site of tonight's game.

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The Timberwolves record stands at 1-4, but that is a bit deceptive. Their schedule has been tough. The Wolves have already faced Eastern Conference powers Cleveland and Boston, and they played the Celtics better than any other opponent has played them to date.  Probably because of that game, the Timberwolves actually hold a better adjusted PVOA than the Bucks (-2.2 points for Minnesota vs. -4.7 points for Milwaukee).  Again, however, we are too early in the season for PVOA to be terribly reliable.  With that caveat, here is the PVOA predicted final score of tonight's game:

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Minnesota Timberwolves 89

Milwaukee Bucks 87

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The matchup of interest tonight will be the battle of rookie point guards Brandon Jennings of Milwaukee and Jonny Flynn of Minnesota.  Both are off to excellent starts.  In 3 games, Jennings has a Marginal Win Score of +2.19 while in 5 games Flynn has an MWS of +0.54.  And both are coming off excellent showings against top flight NBA point guards.  Jennings just held his own against Chicago's Derrick Rose, while Flynn actually outproduced the NBA's second most productive point guard, Boston's Rajon Rondo.  Flynn has an excellent basket attack percentage of 45.6% and can therefore be expected to test Jennings defense with his ability to penetrate.  Jennings must prevent that without getting into foul difficulty.

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In absolute terms, only three Timberwolves are really playing well, one of them is Flynn, and two of them are backups: PF Ole Pecherov and PG Ramon Sessions.  Sessions we knew would produce, Pecherov is a bit of a stunner, though. He is the Timberwolves best producer, but his career resume didn't suggest he had it in him.

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Last season with Washington the perimeter oriented Pecherov had one of the worst MWS48s in the NBA (-3.41).  This season he is absolutely unconscious, shooting over 58% from the field and sporting a gaudy MWS48 of (+2.28).  He's also coming off a game in which he outdueled Boston PF Kevin Garnett, not an easy task.

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Timberwolves estimated MWS48

Ole Pecherov, PF...(+2.28)

Jonny Flynn, PG...(+0.54)

Corey Brewer, SF/SG...(-2.02)

Al Jefferson, C/PF...(-3.03)

Ryan Gomes, SF/PF...(-0.13)

Ryan Hollins, C...(-3.53)

Ramon Sessions, PG...(+0.92)

Damien Wilkins, SG/SF...(-1.51)

Sasha Pavlovic, SF/SG...(-2.78)

Wayne Ellington, SG...(-1.89)

Brian Cardinal, C/PF...(-3.28)

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As you can see, the Timberwolves best player, Al Jefferson is really struggling at the moment (actually Kevin Love is their best player, but he's injured).  Perhaps he is still recovering from the knee injury that put him out last season.  Another player who is struggling is former lottery pick Corey Brewer.  This is a critical season for Brewer.  Brewer has gotten a lot of playing time, but so far he has not delivered.

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Important test for the Bucks

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This is an important barometer game for the Bucks.  If you recall, my theory is that a .500 team, which the Bucks would like to be, must beat the bottom 2/3rds of the Association at home and the bottom 1/3rd of the Association on the road.  The Timberwolves are not a pushover, but they are still a bottom third team.  If the Bucks cannot beat them, it might signal trouble ahead.

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Tagged as: Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA