However, I'm not one of those people who thinks a lot needs to be done to put a team on the field that can actually be recognized as a major league team.  I think pretty much everything that could have gone wrong went wrong.  Johjima, Sexson, and Vidro all got extremely old in a hurry, Ichiro performed subpar, Felix regressed slightly, the bullpen didn't hold up and every off season signing went totally wrong.  There were a few bright spots; Lopez showed that he could be an everyday second baseman, Beltre continued to earn his paycheck, some youngsters got to play and Morrow finally was thrown into the mix as a starter.

I've outlined what I would do during the season to try in improve this team, but since many of those moves cannot be done or some have I've decided to do a quick "play GM for a day" post for the upcoming off season.

1. Resign Beltre- Don't trade him unless he makes it clear he wants out next season.  He is one of the better third baseman and gives the team a good clubhouse presence with the latin players.
2. Don't Resign Ibanez- The M's need all the draft picks they can muster to help the new GM rebuild and lets face it Ibanez isn't going to be around when the M's start to contend anyways.
3. Waive Batista or use him as a mop up reliever- I would keep him around as a spot starter if the club gets in trouble with injuries, but there is no way he is a regular starter or a bullpen guy when the game is on the line.
4. Move Clement to 1st base- Defense hasn't been his strong suit and he proved that this season.  He just isn't a major league catcher.  The M's have a huge hole at first and Clement is the logical choice to fill it.
5. Keep Lopez at 2nd-  I'm sorry, but I don't get all the Lopez haters out there in.  You asked him to change positions and ask him to become a power hitter when all Hargrove wanted from him was a number two hitter with no pull power.  He was terrible at second, but showed improvement in the second half.  If he returns to 2007 form the M's will have an above average 2nd baseman of the future instead of an average two bagger.
6. Trade Betancourt or find replacement- Once agian I don't know why everyone wants Betancourt instead of Lopez.  Betancourt is a terrible defensive shortstop with no bat.  He would probably be an average second baseamn defensively with no bat instead of a slightly below average fielder with a bat in Lopez.  Get rid of him he is getting old and is easily replaceable.
7. Sign Juan Rivera to play LF or RF-With Ibanez leaving the M's need to find a bat to replace him.  The M's would get a bat almost equal to Ibanez with far better defensive from Rivera.  He is only 30 and wouldn't be too expensive.  This is the kind of low risk/high reward type of signing that Bavasi just couldn't understand.

Thats about it.  Balentien is the everday LF fielder and you might throw in another signing of a lefty hitter of the free agent market.  For the most part the M's need to stay pat and build from within.  The fans are going to have give the next Gm some time because it's not going to be an over the night kind of fix.

Here is an article by fellow MVN writer Evan Brunell and what he thinks the M's should do in the off season.

Here is an article by USS Mariner's Dave and how the M's could reload this offseason and compete.  He doesn't necessarily recommend it, but its a good read.

 Writers Note: Go Peter Woodforke for GM

The Mariners also announced a roster move, they sent Mark Lowe down to Tacoma and called up Randy Messenger.  The move was basically to have an extra reliever that could throw because Lowe was going to be sidelined for a couple of days.  They think he will be back before 15 days so they opted to send him to Tacoma and then bring him up on September 1st when roster expands.  Messenger was signed by the team in July (released by the Giants) and has been solid down in Tacoma compiling a 6-0 2.38ERA.

In other news Miguel Batista may be moved to the bullpen for the remainder of the season.  It appears with Ryan Rowland Smith's good start coupled with the inevitably call up of Morrow there is no longer a spot for Batista.  After a strong 2007 season Batista has struggled with his command and his health.  He has been pitching out of the bullpen for most of the second half and could see most of his 2009 season from the pen.

And one last tidbit, J.J. Putz is apparently angery at Riggleman over his decision to use Corcon instead of him in the ninth tonight.  Putz got up to warm-up and Riggleman called the bullpen and told him to take a seat.  Putz didn't have a whole lot to say, but it does seem like the M's are going to try and protect down the stretch.  This is a smart move, so quit complaining Putz and pitch better when the manager does put you in.

Game Recap

The offense once again lacked the crucial hit and compiled only five runs on 15 base hits. The M's bats left 13 runners in scoring position in the defeat.

The one positive note of the game was Jeff Clement, who had his first three hit game of his career. He has shown an improved approach at the plate while continuing to hit for power. In August he has amassed a respectable .372/ .400/ .442 line at the dish. However there are still concerns on whether he will be able to stick behind the plate.

So since the Mariners have decided to packed it up for the winter, I decided to take a look at the minor league system. A number of M's minor leaguers are having outstanding years.

Coming into the 2008 season the Mariners' possessed a lot of high risk/high reward type prospects with the ability to prove themselves this season at the higher levels. Many have succeed beyond their expectations and have proven to be legit ML prospects.

The most exciting and risky player coming into this season was Greg Halman. He showed flashes of brilliance in Everett after being demoted from Wisconsin last season. But like many prospects the M's decided to challenge him in high A ball this season. It went better than expected. Halman showed that he not only belonged, but became the premier power hitter in the league. In 67 games Halman hit 19 dingers and put up a robust .892 OPS and that was all the M's needed to see to promote the 20 year old to Double A. Halman responded by hitting at a .286/ .332/ .490 clip while continuing to play solid defense. Halman could go into 2008 as a top prospect in all of baseball if he continues his hot hitting down the stretch.

Another Mariner' farm hand that has raised a few eyebrows this baseball season has been Adam Moore. Known mostly for his glove Moore proved that he could handle the bat as well. He excelled in High Desert in 2007, but the critics still weren't convinced since the California League is a hitter's paradise. But Moore has proven that 2007 was no fluke. He has continued to drive the ball (.496 slugging percentage) while being patient at the plate (.389 on base percentage). Now the critics are saying he might just be the best catching prospect in the M's minor leagues and that includes Jeff Clement.

And finally one cannot talk about breakout candidates without mentioning our prized shortstop- Carlos Triunfel. Not many prospects came into 2008 as talk about as him and for good reason. He showed that he could handle high A pitching as a 17 year old and looked to be on the verge of breaking out. Then things went wrong; he got off to a slow start, got suspended, and had yet to hit a single professional homerun. But low and behold he began to get red hot. In the second half of the season all Triunfel has done is post an OPS of .950 while collecting 7 homeruns in 45 games.

Just like other top prospects before him the M's have decided to promote him aggressively. He has recently been promoted to Double A and will play shortstop for the final 15 games and the playoffs. Triunfel was going to start the 2009 campaign in West Tenn. anyways so this will just give him a little taste and perhaps a few things to work on during the layoff.

All and all the Mariners farm system has had a good year. Many fringe prospects have legitimized themselves and already top prospects have graduated to the pro level and have started to turn things around. 2009 looks like there will be several other high risk/high reward type players in the lower minors for the M's and they can only hope that they handle the aggressive nature of the M's front office as well as these three did.

Notes:

• Baseball Digest Daily on Blog talk radio interviewed former M's prospect Chris Tillman. Tillman has proven to be a real steal in the trade involving Bedard last offseason. He is now consider one of the top arms in the minor leagues.
• Vidro was released by the Mariners and is free to sign with any other team.
• Carlos Silva was placed on the 15 day DL and was replaced by Ryan Feierabend. Feierabend didn't pitch too well, but he was on three days rest and Riggleman said he would cut him some slack.
• Washburn was in fact claimed on waivers as was Ibanez. However the Twins and the M's couldn't work out a deal for Washburn so he will be with the team for the remainder of the year. Ditto for Ibanez.

The local media is doing spin control saying that this is good news because now the M's can work out a deal with any team they desire.  But in reality this couldn't be worse news for the M's.  No one is willing to take on his entire salary and the team cannot get a player currently on a 40 man roster.  Both of these were apparently what the New York Yankees were offering before the deadline.

This is another example of the M's overvaluing their own players and not being able to pull the trigger when it comes to trades.  Getting Washburn off the books for the rest of this year and 2009 would have benefited the M's more than getting a mid level prospect from the Yankees.  Seattle interim GM, Lee, is auditioning for the role and might have overplayed his card here to try to impress the front office.

There is good news however, Washburn has continued to pitch effectively and could be used as trade bait this offseason.  The free agent market for starting pitchers is again very thin outside of a few marquee names and Washburn could look attractive to a team that lost out on the Sabathia sweepstakes during the winter meetings.  In addition, he will be in the last year of his contract paying him about 10 million a year, which in today's market is a bargain for an experienced lefty starting pitcher.

Other News

• Ryan Rowland Smith will be called up from Triple A Tacoma to make the start today for the M's.
• According to the Tacoma News Tribune, the Mariners have told Kenji he is no longer the starting catcher for the Seattle Mariners.
• Bill Bavasi found a new job with the Reds front office.
• Shannon Drayer was let go by KOMO after they were outbid for the rights to broadcast the M's next season.

Morrow made his first start in Tacoma and was limited to 34 pitches.  He apparently looked solid, but got to deep into counts to throw more than 1 2/3 innings in his debut.  This is the reason they needed to do it last year or even this year.  His control and secondary pitches aren't were they need to be to be an affective back end of the rotation starter.  He won't provide the M's with enough innings to be counted on.  But at least they are making a move for the future and not the present.  By the way, when was the last time they did that?

Ibanez has shown the fans why the M's decided to keep him around for the rest of the summer and beyond.  He has gone off since the M's decided against trading him to the Blue Jays.  Ibanez is 8-14 with 11 RBIs in the Twins series and opens the Rays series with another homerun and a walk-off at that.  He is the only consistent threat in the M's lineup and provides pop.  This is one of the reasons I said to sell very high on Ibanez and make sure you net two top prospects.  He's good and will net us to top picks or provide us with a solid DH for 2009- and trade bait again.  His skills don't look to be diminishing like many have thought and with his work-ethic and looks like he has a couple of good years left.

Finally the M's made another good move by moving Batista into the bullpen.  This was long overdue, but because of injuries to the minor league pitching staff and the M's pitching staff the M's were forced to keep him in the rotation.  It appears that he has finally shown his age.  Ryan Rowland-Smith who was sent down to stretch out like Morrow will replace him in the rotation.  In addition to Ryan, Feierabend is down in Tacoma and has pitched well since coming off the DL.  He could be another option for the M's in September and 2009.

So far the M's have done almost everything I have wanted.  Now just get rid of Washburn, Cairo and bring up Diaz and I will be one happy camper.

The left-hander was supposed to throw again Monday after a 30-throw session in the outfield Sunday.

But a meeting of the minds including the manager, the pitching coach, the trainer and the pitcher ended with a decision to hold off for a day.

''We were going to go two days on, one day off,'' trainer Rick Griffin said. ''But he's feeling good today, and we don't want to take any chances.''

So the new plan is to have Bedard test his impinged sore left shoulder Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. He will repeat his Sunday session - 30 throws at 60 feet - Tuesday and will increase from there.

Also it looks like Phillippe Aumont might also be coming off the DL and resuming his career in Wisconsin courtesy of Rattler Radio:

Phillippe Aumont just tossed his second simulated game in the last few days. However, I didn't get to see much of it due to a staff meeting.

Early reports may have him activated for the next homestand. That would be August 9 through August 12 vs. Kane County

Also Jharmidy DeJesus got some national attention courtesy of Baseball America. DeJesus was listed on their hot prospect sheet for August 1st, which is for the hottest 15 prospects in all of baseball. He then got promoted from Rookie to A ball in Pulaski.

It takes a pretty impressive performance from a complex-league player to land on the Hot Sheet, but DeJesus turned some heads with the power he displayed this week.

.400/.455/1.050 (8-for-20), 1 2B, 4 HR, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO

Well thats it for now. Please get rid of Vidro Lee.

Aumont started the year in single A Wisconsin and was used out of the bullpen throwing 40-50 pitches per outing. Slowly the M's

moved him into the rotation and they increased his workload. He was having a very solid year in Wisconsin before he got injured in June. He hasn't pitched since June, but their are reports that he is about to be placed off the disable list and resume throwing for Wisconsin. According to Rattler Radio (blog by Chris Mehring, the Rattlers' announcer) Aumont had a bullpen session on July 30th and all the reports seemed to indicate that all went well:

Just passing along a tidbit from this morning. Phillippe Aumont finished up a simulated game about 45 minutes ago.

From the very few pitches I had a chance to see, he looked good. Sorry, I do have a few other duties that keep me busy before the game.

Early reports are that it went well. I have not had time to talk to Phillippe or pitching coach Jaime Navarro, but if there is a chance, I'll have a new post later tonight or some time tomorrow.

The injury, if it wasn't serious or an elbow problem, was probably a blessing in disguise. The M's didn't want the Canadian pitching too many innings this season, his first professional season, and was going to limit his outings anyways. When he comes back he should be eased back into the rotation and end the season on the active roster instead of being shut down.

Drivelinmechanics.com had a great article about his mechanics. They indicated, like most young pitchers, that Aumont will have to work on several things about his pitching mechanics. Here is a little tidbit:

Arm Action: Aumont does not take the ball laterally behind his body, which is very good, since a pitcher with a wingspan that large could end up having severe timing issues by doing that. Regardless, Aumont is late at footstrike, but not terribly so. His arm barely passes through the horizontal at footstrike, which will force the arm to lay violently back in external rotation. This is a major cause for concern. Aumont does not form the Inverted W with his arms, but instead loads the elbows behind the back naturally. I grade his Arm Action Average, but very close to Bad. Again, I understand how many timing flaws tall pitchers end up having, but that does not make it acceptable.

This is a little worrisome, but not uncommon at all. He had very little coaching and baseball experience before being drafted. Within a couple of years the coaching staff in the minor league should be able to correct some of his flaws and may even add a couple of MPH on his pitches. But they must resist from changing his mechanics too much because his pitches could be effected.

Here is a scouting report on his "raw stuff" by foxsports:

Growing up in a troubled home, Aumont gets rave reviews from his maturity. He throws a sinking fastball that hits the mid 90’s while hitting 98 at times with plenty of sink. He throws a very nice slider that gives him a effective secondary pitch. His delivery is excellent and his size gives his stuff more movement. He has a solid understanding of pitching and locates his stuff well. All in all, the tools are here for success.

In addition to throwing two kinds of fastballs and a slider Aumont has an effective change up that is a work in progress. Very inconsistent, but nasty when he is on. This report conflicts with my other report about his mechanics. Pitching mechanics are a work in progress and nobody really knows what a proper delivery should be to reduce stress just see Lincecum.

His stats this year in Wisconsin are pretty impressive for his first stint as a professional ballplayer. He has a K/9 rate of 8.6 with a BB/9 rate of 2.62 giving him a K/BB 3.31. He is much more polished with his command of the strike zone than many high school pitchers and sports an ERA of 2.62 with a FIP of 3.22. Not only is he striking guys out, but they are plain not hitting him. They have only been batting a meager .222 against him and he has only allowed 3 HR in 44.2 innings pitched. However he does tend to give regress some when runners get on base. He has an ERA of 5.79 with runners on and batters hit at a .257 clip. This is probably due to his inexperience in game situations and his delivery from the stretch, but it is something to take a look at.

Most scouts seem him as a potential ace or at least a #2 or #3 type pitcher with strikeout potential while collecting a lot of grounders with his fastball. Expect to see him in A+ or even AA by next season if all goes well. His ETA is 2011 or 2012.

Here is a YouTube clip of him pitching against Cuba, enjoy:

Hernandez was baseball America's number 5 Marlin prospect at the beginning of 2008 and many scouts and evaluators had him as a potential #2 or #3 starter in the future. John Sickes gave him a B grade at the start of the season and Matt Birnbach at Future Fish here at MVN had Hernandez as the Marlins #7 prospect. Here is a little scouting report by him:

Hernandez commands a two seam fastball in the low 90s, with excellent life. He also has a potentially very good changeup. He has an effortless delivery that helps out his command, and he is not afraid to challenge hitters. Gaby’s curveball is a work in progress, as it still lacks depth and he tends to reveal itself a bit early. Because his fastball isn’t hard enough, Gaby cannot get by without a plus breaking ball, as hitters would just sit on the fastball all day and punish it. He has the potential to be a #2-3 starter, depending on how much he can develop his secondary pitches. He will begin the year in the hitter’s paradise that is the Pacific Coast League. He’ll have plenty of competition on that team as he will vie for a rotation spot in 2009.

Baseball America's scouting report prior to this year:

Hernandez, who came over from the Mets in the Paul Lo Duca deal prior to last season, has good overall stuff, but his curveball still hasn't become consistent enough to grade it as an average pitch. While there was talk of scrapping Hernandez's curveball and giving him a power slider to go along with a 94 mph four-seamer, the club added a cutter at the tail end of last season to give him another weapon and something thats allowed his breaking ball to progress.Hernandez grew into the pitch in the Puerto Rican Winter League, and impressed the Marlins' brass during his short stint in big league camp this spring.

It's not only helped in giving him another pitch, but its helped his breaking ball,” Marlins vice president of scouting and player development Jim Fleming said. Hes throwing his curveball with a little bit more velocity. Hes getting close.

His location and command of the cutter is still a work in progress, but hes always had solid command of all his other pitches. He pitches with his fastball a lot and hes a very aggressive kid, so we're real pleased with where he is. His changeup his third pitch; his cutter is probably fourth right now, but with the way its coming I think it'll become more important to him pretty soon.ť

Finally a little article about his time at Marlins spring training in 2007:

"Gaby is an extremely intense and talented guy," Fleming said. "He's very locked in to pitching, and he's what we thought he was."

The Marlins had two objectives sending him to Puerto Rico. First, it was to add some extra innings, and secondly, they wanted him to fine tune a cut-fastball in game situations.

Along with a 92-94 mph fastball, Hernandez throws a curveball, changeup, sinker and cutter.

"This early, I'm more concerned with gaining arm strength," Marlins pitching coach Rick Kranitz said. "Sometimes that offspeed stuff, the slider/cutter comes later. I'd rather see the feel of the changeup and the fastball command, than I would with the slider and all that. To me, that's the last thing to come."

In terms of first impressions, Kranitz sees Hernandez as a pitcher with tremendous upside.

"He looks like he's pretty polished for a young pitcher," Kranitz said. " When you're a young pitcher, you say, 'Who does he remind me of?' I can tell you he looks like he's a got a pretty good feel of what he's doing. He's pretty sound, and his stuff really looks very good."

His stats throughout the minor leagues have been solid and it's seems like the Mets and Marlins had high hopes for him because he was promoted quickly. His stats may not look outstanding, but he was way ahead of the curve and still is. His K rate has declined, but its not terrible and his BB rate has risen, but still within reason. It seems Alburqurque in the PCL is more to blame than Hernandez. It's a great hitters park and kills a lot of good arms.

Overall it's seems that this kid could be a #4 starter in the big leagues if he can develop and throw his secondary pitches more effectively. To me this is a homerun of a deal for the Mariners. They get rid of a 39 year old Rhodes for added depth at the higher minors and a potential back end of the rotation innings eater.

Here is what GM Lee had to say about the trade courtesy of MLB.Com:

"We felt the opportunity to acquire a young pitcher made sense as we look toward 2009 and beyond," Mariners general manager Lee Pelekoudas said. "Pedro Grifol, our Minor League field coordinator, has known Gaby for several years and believes he has a chance to help us in the future."

This is the first trade Pelekoudas has made since taking over for dismissed GM Bill Bavasi on June 16.

There was a potential deal in place for Ibanez to head to Toronto for two major leaguers, but apparently the M's back out at the last minute. Geoff Baker had more to say:

"We had some really good talks with Seattle, they were pretty intense and pretty in-depth,'' Ricciardi said in a conference call with Toronto media. "We thought at one point there was a possibility to get something done there, but it just didn't come to fruition.

"We were ready to go forward,'' he added. "I think at the end of the day they just didn't feel as comfortable going forward to finish off the trade. It was just something that didn't come to fruition. Both parties worked hard. At the end of the day they probably weren't as comfortable with making the trade as we were. That happens.''

"We were ready to go forward,'' Ricciardi said. "I think at the end of the day they just didn't feel as comfortable going forward to finish off the trade.''

It would be pretty interesting to find out what two players the Blue Jays were willing to give up for Ibanez. Ibanez is going to be a Type A free agent, but there is always that possibility that he will accept arbitration. Blue Jays have a couple of good young arms and a couple of decent outfield prospects that could have helped the M's in the future. I just hope that a couple of names get leaked.

Anyways, just because the trade deadline is gone doesn't mean that trades can't happen. They must first clear waivers, but in the M's case that shouldn't be too hard. Washburn is going to get through waivers and the Yankees and M's could continue their negotiations. I still see the M's moving Washburn to New York, but outside of that don't read too much into Beltre or Ibanez rumors from here on out. Ibanez will not go through waivers without getting pick up and I think the M's will keep Beltre and try to extend him. Here is what Lee has to say about it:

"You can still make moves after Aug. 1, with certain restrictions, but we also have the offseason," Pelekoudas said. "There is a lot of time to make moves. We are not in any time crunch. There is no deadline to get this club turned around in the next two days, the next week or the next two or three weeks. We have time to do this, and we plan to do it systematically, step by step."

So maybe this isn't the last trade for the M's. And please get rid of Vidro already.

After tomorrow I'm hoping the M's release him or shortly after he clears waivers in August because he is taking up a roster spot that could be filled by two Tacoma players.  One who has shown he can play at the big league level and one who has potential to fill an outfield spot for years to come.  I'm talking about Victor Diaz and Wlad Balentien.

Victor Diaz not only has major league experience, but he has proved to be able to hit at the big league level.  He has a career 106OPS+ and even put together 83 games for the NY Mets at a 108OPS+ clip.  He has a career slugging percentage of .487 and can play multiple positions including 1B, LF, RF, and DH.  His defense is passable in the outfield and he should be slotted in LF by August 1st.

Wlad Balentien had a rough start when he was called up to the Mariners and was sent down to Tacoma to work on his approach at the plate.  After a slow start he has bounced back to shown a much more polished approach at the plate while continuing to hit for power.  He should be in the line-up by August 1st also so that he may have enough at bats for the M's to evaluate him and for him to adjust to big league pitching by next season.

This is one of the reasons why Ichiro needs to be switch back to a CF because there are two options that could drastically help the M's offense down the stretch and maybe in the future.  Ibanez has to become the everyday DH or hopefully traded by tomorrow and these guys have to play everyday because there are slim pickings in the free agent class this winter.  Reed and Bloomquist aren't the answers, but Diaz and Balentien could be, give them a shot.

One of Bavasi's offseason plans was to upgrade the 2B position by signing a player to overtake Lopez or to compete for the spot. There wasn't much on the market so Bavasi settled on Cairo. There was talk of competition and a new approach for Lopez, but in the end there really wasn't any competition to speak of and Lopez started the year as the starting second baseman for the M's for the third straight year.

As usually Lopez got off to a fast start batting .306 in the month of April slugging .407. He regressed a little in May batting .275/ .296/ .367, but since that small hiccup Lopez has been tearing the cover off the baseball. A .315/ .348/ .454 June followed by a .294/ .341/ .447 July. So going into the all-star break Lopez's stats were solid and he was playing at league average, but the big elephant in the room was approaching. The second half of the season.

A funny thing has happened since the second half of the season though; Lopez has yet to regress, but rather he has turned it on. He has an OPS of .899 in the second half with 2HR in 35 at bats. Yes I know it's a very small sample size, but if Lopez can keep it up in the second half of the season he could be one of the very few bright spots for the M's in a dismal season.

If you have watched the M's this season you have witnessed a different approach by Jose Lopez. He has been taking a first strike before swing and has seemed to have a plan in the batters box. His line drive rate has gone back up to were it was when he first entered the league (21%) and he has been pulling the ball with authority more often than in the past- he has as many doubles as his career high already (28). In addition to all of that, he has become a very productive run producer for the M's. He has a line of .333/ .391/ .506 with men in scoring position and has an OPS of .978 with runners in scoring position and two outs.

Now many around the Internet has expressed interest in upgrading the 2B position this offseason with Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson, who become free agents in 2009. Their main argument is that this is the easiest way for the M's to get better with the up coming free agent class and because Lopez isn't all that valuable. I would have to strongly disagree with this assessment. My main argument is that both of those options are on the wrong side of 30 and are going to be regressing while Lopez is nearing his prime years (25-29). Not only that, but both of these options are not improvements at all.

As far as batting is concern Mark Ellis is not close to Lopez this season. He could be having an off year or perhaps his skills are falling off. He is however an upgrade defensively, but by the time the M's start to turn the corner as an organization and start competing for the AL West title he will be nearing the end of his career. Lets take a closer look at their stats:

AVG OBP SLUG OPS+ RC GPA BA/RISP P/PA LD% RZR OOZ FP WARP1

Jose Lopez .301 .326 . 424 103 62 .263 .333 3.7 21.3 .800 27 .981 3

Mark Ellis .227 . .324 . 373 93 47 .246 .244 4 18.5 .903 25 .996 4.2

As you can see Lopez clearly has the better bat while Mark Ellis' glove is number one asset. As a player Mark Ellis is worth 4.2 runs above a replacement level while Lopez is only worth 3. This is a very small amount of deference between the two players and it is my argument that Lopez will improve while Ellis will regress. Ellis will be 32 next season and he has already shown regression while Lopez will be hitting his prime age.

Now there are other factors when decide upon two players. One is the need of the team. The Seattle Mariners need offense and are actually an average defense team at the current moment, so improving the offense should be the M's number one goal this offseason in signing Mark Ellis doesn't help the M's with that need. Other factors are time, money and age. Lopez is already signed for cheap, he is only 24 and will be around when the team is competitive again while Ellis will be older, more expensive and might not be in baseball in three years.

The next option is Orlando Hudson. I would agree with signing him if the M's could be competing for a playoff spot in 2009 or 2010, but in reality 2010 is a maybe while 2011 is more realistic. Lets take a look at Orlando's stats:

AVG OBP SLUG OPS+ RC GPA BA/RISP P/PA LD% RZR OOZ FP WARP1

Orlando Hudson .304 .366 .459 111 59 .266 .355 3.7 22.1 .789 24 .981 4.9

Once again Hudson comes off as the better overall player. He is superior offensively and is pretty much equal to Lopez on the defensive side of the field. However Hudson will be 31 next season and he will command a lot of money in the open market. This is a tough call because he will probably be a productive player for three or four years and the M's will have a chance to compete during that time frame. However I would argue that this is a small upgrade and the price the M's would have to invest would hamper them in other areas that are much more pressing like DH, 1B, SS, and OF.

There is a report that Orlando Hudson wants a 15 million a year deal to play baseball next season and of course he will want four to five years. This is one of the things that Bavasi would have done and I do admit that it's tempting because he's left handed and could provide added pop to the lineup, but Jose Lopez has shown more pop in his bat and he should continue to grow has a player while Hudson is probably going to falter a little bit.

The team has invested millions of dollars and time into Jose Lopez and shouldn't just throw it away for a minimal upgrade that will cost them nearly 30 million dollars. As I stated earlier there are many more pressing needs and getting a short term solution at second his not one of them.

Update: Jose Lopez went 3-5 with a HR to extend his team leading hitting streak to 16 games.  Bryan LaHair also hit his second major league HR in the 7th.  And Ichiro collected his 3,000 hit in his professional career, but it wasn't enough. The M's lost the game in the 9th inning 11-10. J.J. Putz blew the save in the bottom of the 9th with a one out two run double to Vazquez.

Many people expected a huge breakout season for him when the M's decided to send him back to High Desert in 2008, but after a slow start and an early season suspension many were starting to wonder if the kid was for real or not. Then came the second half of the season. He started hit the ball with authority. Since the break Triunfel has compiled a .353/.398/ .513/ line with 11 extra base hits in 29 games. He has also continued to run the bases well with 11SB in only 29, as many as he had in 51 pre all-star games. His last ten games have been out of this world; .465AVG 6 extra base hits, 6 steals, 2HR and 10RBIs.

However Carlos Triunfel has been a very streaky hitter in his short career and this might just be a small bump in an up and down year. He started the year off in April hitting .195 and then saw his bat come around in May hitting .342 while slugging .418 and then he fill off again in June. The second half of the season is huge for him becuase he must learn how to stay away from extended cold streaks and keep the ups and downs to a minimum.

There are some concerns like all prospects with Triunfel. His defense was pretty bad in 2007 and it hasn't improved that much in 2008. He is still making throwing errors and mental mistakes. He has 23 errors this season while playing SS and 2B for High Desert. Many scouts think he will grow out of the position and have to move to 3B or perhaps the outfield were his strong arm could become a huge asset.

Here is a scouts take of Carlos from Jason A. Churchill in the Seattle PI:

"Again, he's given us all a peek at what he's capable of," an American League area scout said. "There is so much more in there, and you can see it, but it's only come in flashes so far. Some of that may be due to the aggressive nature in which the Mariners have chosen to push him, which means you throw the statistics out the window.

"He's still the youngest everyday player in Advanced A and he has certainly improved. Only you can't see it in the numbers."

"I still think there's 20-25 homers in that bat, and he's easily the most impressive talent I have seen from Seattle's farm system since Felix Hernandez came through. At some point over the next 600 or 700 at-bats, that kid is probably going to pop. And when he does, it will be fun, at least for the Mariners."

And here is a scouting report of him at ProsectInsider:

“I really like what I see in him,” said another scout who traveled the Cal League for eight days watching the High Desert Mavericks. “He’s not going to play short, but third makes sense and he proved he could hit. Most at-bats he was in charge, even without a lot of patience. He was controlling the strike zone for the most part. He did swing at some balls out of the zone, but he also got some hits that way.

“He’s not going to be in the minor leagues in three years,” said one scout. “I can’t really see how he isn’t up by then.”

Triunfel’s Tool Box:

On-Base Skills: 50/60

Power: 55/70

Speed/Base Running: 55/65

Glove: 50/60

Arm: 70/75

He is extremely raw and young, but being able to hold his own in a league were he faces pitchers three years older than him is impressive. If he continues his hot streak in the second half he could see some time in Double A as an 18 year old and most certainly next season as a 19 year old. Only time will tell whether he is the next A-Rod or bust, but the future sure does look bright for this 5 tool 18 year old.

Another Hot Prospect: Mario Martinez of the Pulaski Mariners A

Mario Martinez was signed in 2006 along with Triunfel by Bob Engle. He hasn't been rushed like Carlos, but he has put up some impressive numbers in A ball. He is currently hitting .315/ .346/ .483 with 16 extra base hits in 37 games. If he continues this hot hitting he could see High Desert this season or most likely next season as Triunfel takes the next step up and Mario takes his spot.

"I would not be here without you, Marilyn," he said,

"She's my gal," Niehaus would explain later. "She's been with me through thick and thin. She's been the reason I'm here. I'm proud of myself for not breaking down completely."

"Radio plays with the mind," he said. "It gives you a mental workout and delusions of grandeur. That's what Harry Caray did to me."

It's about time that the rest of the world recognizes Niehaus and how lucky we M's fans have been through the years. This is a long overdue and I'm happy that he was the first Mariner into the hall of fame.

In Class AAA, at least to begin. Riggleman doesn't see Morrow making a transformation out of the major league bullpen. He says the quickest way to get Morrow's arm built up would be to send him to Tacoma for two or three weeks.

It all depends on how quickly J.J. Putz grabs the closer role again. Putz has come back strong from the injury, so strong that the Mariners are now back to discussing Morrow as a starter this year. According to Riggleman, the orgnaization is split right down the middle as to whether Morrow should start now or over the winter in winter ball.

And although Riggleman managed in winter ball before, you can tell he's not thrilled with the idea of sending Morrow back there to pitch. Neither is a significant part of the organization, apparently. Last year, when Morrow pitched in Venezuela, there were "times when people were probably holding their breath about it.''

This is some great news out of Mariners' camp finally. It looks like they are ready to make the move which is long overdue. I'm inclined to go the Triple A route rather than the MLB or winter ball moves. Winter ball gives Morrow less rest, puts him in an unstable country, and matches him up against lesser athletes, while Triple A gives him better competition with less pressure.

Morrow's future is as a top of the rotation pitcher and the Mariners' might be more willing to make the move also becuase of their number one selection in this year's draft, Fields. Fields was a closer in college and is likely to be very close to helping out the big club in 2009. When the M's sign him they may have just found their new set up man.

Jarrod Washburn Update: There really isn't too much to update from my previous post a couple of days ago. It's being reported that the deal is done, but others are saying that there are complications because the M's are asking for top prospects in return. I see the deal getting done because it makes sense for both clubs. More to come when news changes.

Bryan Osborn 

Top 20 Prospects- Updated 7/28/08

1. Carlos Triunfel (SS) Since the break Triunfel has compiled a .353/.398/ .513/ line with 11 extra base hits in 29 games. He has also continued to run the bases well with 11SB in only 29, as many as he had in 51 pre all-star games. His last ten games have been out of this world; .465AVG 6 extra base hits, 6 steals, 2HR and 10RBIs.

2. Phillipe Aumont (RHP) His stats this year in Wisconsin are pretty impressive for his first stint as a professional ballplayer. He has a K/9 rate of 8.6 with a BB/9 rate of 2.62 giving him a K/BB 3.31. He is much more polished with his command of the strike zone than many high school pitchers and sports an ERA of 2.62 with a FIP of 3.22. Not only is he striking guys out, but they are plain not hitting him. They have only been batting a meager .222 against him and he has only allowed 3 HR in 44.2 innings pitched.

3. Wlad Balentien (OF)

4. Greg Halman (CF)

5. Michael Saunders (OF)

6. Juan Ramirez (RHP)

7. Matt Tuiasosopo (3B)

8. Michael Pineda (RHP)

9. Dennis Raben (1B/OF)

10. Adam Moore (C)

11. Mario Martinez (3B)

12. Jharmidy De Jesus (SS)

13. Fabian Williamson (LHP)

14. Ryan Feierabend (LHP)

15. Danny Carroll (OF)

16. Alex Liddi (3B)

17. Justin Thomas (LHP)

18. Nathan Adcock (RHP)

19. Carlos Peguero (DH/1B/ OF)

20. Matt Mangini (1B/ 3B)

* Updates for each player to come and new additions once the M's ink new prospects from 2008 draft and international signings.