I’m usually extremely optimistic and confident when it comes to LeBron’s future in Cleveland, but I’ll also be the first to admit that those views are as homerish as they come.
However, when I think about it objectively, a lot of questions come into my mind. And not a lot of answers.
For example, what would make LeBron feel a sense of attachment to the Cavs? Since he was drafted, the team has kept only one player — Zydrunas Ilgauskas — throughout his tenure. As a comparison, when people talk about Kevin Durant’s future in a much smaller Oklahoma City, they cite the fact that the team has acquired so much young talent to grow around him that it would almost be sacrilegious for Durant to jump ship.
That’s not the case for LeBron, as he plays for neither an attractive market or a team with a young supporting cast that has been growing around him for several years.
If you’re Danny Ferry, the time to find that young budding superstar to put next to LeBron is now. Not a minute later.
That’s why the big news coming out of Memphis on Monday should have been big 12 hours north in Cleveland as well.
From Monday’s Memphis Commercial Appeal:
Fourth-year forward Rudy Gay and the Grizzlies failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension before the NBA deadline.
Negotiations broke off Monday evening so Gay will become a restricted free agent next summer. The Griz still can match any offer sheet Gay signs
[...]
An NBA source said the Grizzlies’ final offer was a five-year deal worth about $50 million. Gay was asking for a deal similar to Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge (five years, $65 million with incentives), according to the source.
Memphis is one of a number of teams cited to be undergoing economic turmoil. They play in a state-of-the-art facility, yet the Grizzlies were second-to-last in attendance last season. They’ve had a very difficult time attracting fans in a city where they are still the only pro ticket in town.
If they want to keep Gay, who still just turned 23 in August, they’re going to have to pay the piper. And Gay is an expensive talent. He’s averaging a shade under 17 points a game through the first three years of what promises to be a nice career. Just two seasons ago, he averaged 20.1 points a game at the age of 21.
At 6′8″ and 230, Gay is listed as a forward. But he’s versatile enough to play the shooting guard position if need be. And with Mr. Versatility in LeBron James on the Cavs’ roster, Gay can move to the “3″ when LeBron plays the “4,” which is happening quite often these days.
But the inclusion of a player like Gay on this roster gives LeBron a young running mate for the rest of his career should he decide to make that “rest of his career” in Cleveland. Many had Gay pegged as the #1 overall pick in 2006, but questions about his motivation made him drop from that perch. He’s proving the haters wrong by the day, but he’s doing so playing on a horrible team in a tiny market where nobody knows and nobody cares.
On the flip side, a move to Cleveland could really accelerate Gay’s career. Look at a guy like Mo Williams, who was putting up numbers on a bad team in a small market. Now, thousands of NBA fans who had never heard of him before know him now because of a breakout season playing alongside LeBron last year, one that resulted in Williams’ first All-Star selection.
Gay is immensely more talented than Williams as an all-around player, and if playing with James can resurrect a guy like Mo, then there’s no telling what it could do for Gay. He fits the Scottie Pippen mold as an extremely athletic swingman who can grow defensively and score in a number of ways.
How can the Cavs make a deal work? Gay is due $3.3 million this season, which will make it difficult to find talent that fits that salary slot. The Cavs would in all likelihood have to part with their mancrush J.J. Hickson, a 21-year old power forward who makes $1.4 million this year, along with a filler player — maybe Anthony Parker’s cap-friendly contract.
But while they wait for Hickson to grow into a solid rotation player, Gay is a young player who is already a star and won’t need to compete at all for minutes. They’ll be killing two birds with one stone in getting younger and getting a rotation player.
The Cavs already have an aging frontcourt with the 34-year old Ilgauskas and the 37-year old Shaquille O’Neal. Parting ways with Hickson would be a huge blow, but there’s no doubt that Gay is a much better player than Hickson at this point. While Hickson struggles to crack the rotation in his second year, Gay was a 20-points per game scorer by his second year with the potential to be far better.
Instead of being conservative with this roster, which is begging for a true #2 star that isn’t either over the age of 35 or miscast as a #2 instead of a #3, Ferry will have to get aggressive. He can’t just think about this year; he has to think about the roster for this year and beyond and how it will be for the remainder of LeBron’s entire career. We’re talking 10 years down the line here, not just this year and the next couple years.
And don’t forget that we’re talking about a Memphis front office that gave up Pau Gasol for next to nothing in the name of saving pennies, so why not try to do business with them?
Because as much as it pains me to say it, you can’t expect a megastar like LeBron to stay in Cleveland if you’re surrounding him with a 37-year old Shaq, a 34-year old Z, and two guards who, although ballers, are 6′3″ or shorter. Ferry has to stop with the asset management and get aggressive. Now.
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If only it were that easy….
Thats a great artical!!! I agree with it one hundred percent… I want him to stay in Cleveland but they’re still one player away this year I think. Gay would be a perfect fit for now and the long run. Maybe the Cavs will read the artical and consider it????
I have said this for awhile but the problem is not Mike Brown. Is he the best coach in the NBA…no. But he isn’t the issue. That begins and end with Danny Ferry. He and his predecessor approach the LBJ era very wrongly. Firstly, the organization bought into the hype of LBJ and put him above the team and now he is above the organization. Instead of seeing him as a great foundation to build around. They bought into the fact that he’s the saviour and only needed a couple old bodies on the court to get a ring. Now they’re in predicament where he has all the power and leverage. All great players have that to some extent but he happens to have a lion’s share of it. On top of that, Ferry is over-consumed with this highbrow sense of loyalty and team character. It’s been obvious to me that the moves over the last 3 years have been out of desperation. Besides Bill Simmons, no one has addressed how wrongly the Cavs have been constructed. I thought things would get better last year when they could have brought in young talent with the trading of Wally, Sasha, Big Ben, or Big Z. But team chemistry was more important. Firstly, Ferry needs to realize that this isn’t the Spurs organization. Secondly, he needs to prepare expect the best but prepare for the worst. He needs to bring in assets that will allow him to have a good team if LBJ decides to leave. He needs to trade for Stephen Jackson and Rudy Gay NOW. And this summer he should try to go after Amare or Bosh.
^^^^sure and lets trade for kobe and dwight howard,its that simple
you do reaize the cavs have no cap space this offseason due to this offseasons signings and the drop of the cap next year?research is lifesaver you turd,get a clue
Consider that Lebron spent all summer with JJ at his side teaching him , helping him blossom …..I don’t know that trading JJ is a good idea if the goal is to keep LBJ …..
in addtion to JJ talent he must have somethingthat LBJ sees and likes.
Trading Z and his contract ( expireing ) might be a better idea …though I have to admit I’m rooting for Z to retire as a Cav when ever he decides to hang them up.
I like the thought of Gay coming to the Cavs …..don’t know the price that the Cavs would have to pay. Your onto something ….Just hope that IF the move is made we don’t overpay …..I would much rather pay what LA paid for Pau Gasol. Then thats wishfull thinking.
Thanks for the heads up and we’ll keep an eye on it going forward. !!!!!
I’d love Rudy Gay on this squad (and next to LBJ). And as much as I love Hickon(’s potential) I’d trade him in a heart beat for the 23 yr old Gay.
As for Ferry constructing the Cavs ‘wrong’ or not enough like the Thunder…. meh. The Cavs didn’t have the draft picks that OKC have had (something Bill Simmons fails to mention when comparing the LBJ and KD situations). They only had one draft pick those first couple seasons and Jim Paxson wasted it on Luke Jackson (passing on the likes of Al Jefferson… ugh). Ferry didn’t have the option to build with young draft picks and I’d say he’s done a pretty good job so far (one Finals team and a squad that won 66 games).
Sure, I would’ve liked him to trade Wally’s expiring last season, but what deal was there? It’s telling that the other major expiring deal (Raef Lafrentz) wasn’t moved either. With how this year has started, I’m convinced that trading for Shaq mid-season would’ve been a disaster.
oh, and the whole Booze fiasco plays a part as well.
The one thing you missed in this writeup is a salary dump. Memphis isn’t going to trade Gay for Hickson and another throw in piece. Why? Well J.J. Hasn’t proven anything. Had Mike Brown actually given the kid some minutes over the last 14 months it might be a more realistic possibility (but that’s for another day).
If Hedo Turkoglu commanded the 5 years, 53 million at 30 years old there is surely a team willing to pay Gay (who is not yet 25) the 5 years, 65 million he wants.
In terms of the cap, Memphis is actually in really good shape, that’s why this seems like a really odd move. They only have 56+ million in salary committed this year, 47 million next season. 4.4 milion of the 47 is a qualifying offer to gay. So in essence, they could have given him the 11 or 12 million he wanted and still come in under this years cap number. Very, very strange.
So, what would entice them? Well, clearly dumping more money. They have two contracts that fit the bill. Marko Jaric being owed 14.7 million over the next two years and Zach Randolph being owed 33 million. In a perfect world, Memphis probably wants to dump Randolph but Jaric is about as useless of a 7+ million dollar player as you’re going to find in the league. Randolph is a head case but he’s a very talented player……Jaric is just a warm body.
In terms of realistic trades, here’s the two I could see happening (IF Memphis really wants to dump Gay and a contract to save money):
Trade 1:
G/F Marko Jaric (7.1 million)
G/F Rudy Gay (3.2 million)
for
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (11.5 million)
J.J. Hickson (1.4 million)
2010 First Round Pick
Why it works:
Memphis dumps Jaric’s terrible deal and doesn’t have to pay Gay. They get a young PF in Hickson (on the cheap), a low 1st round pick (another cheap, high potential player like Hickson) and they buy out Z’s deal.
Total savings on such a trade for them would be 13-14 million just in salary from the deal (7.1 from Jaric, 2 million in salary difference between players involved in the trade and around 4-5 million on the buyout. That’s serious coin for a team strapped for cash. Plus, they don’t have to pay Gay either.
Trade 2:
PF Zach Randolph (16 million)
G/F Rudy Gay (3.2 million)
for
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (11.5 million)
PF J.J. Hickson (1.4 million)
SG Daniel Gibson (4 million)
Why it works:
This is another attractive deal for them. The give up 19+ million in salary but only return 17+. They dump Randolph’s big contract, get two solid young players in return (one with a lot of potential) and they get a buyout from Z for even more cap relief. This trade saves memphis nearly 40 million in the next two seasons (2 million in salary difference between players involved in the trade, 33 million from Randolph’s contract and 4-5 million in Z’s buyout). Now, they have to pay Gibson and Hickson but that’s 6 million in salary next year vs the 21 million they would pay Randolph in the last year of his deal and Gay in his qualifying offer.
I think the Jaric trade is more plausible because Randolph, while making a lot of money, is putting up some huge numbers for them. Jaric, on the other hand, is an 11 minute per game guy that’s not even chipping in the league average off the bench. Both scenarios they same a lot of money and get a young player in return. In one, they get a young player and draft pick.
Would Memphis go for it? Depends on a few factors but given they traded a 26 year old Pau Gasol simply to save money, trading a 25 year old Rudy Gay to do the same isn’t all that unrealistic.
If you really think the Cavs can get Rudy Gay for JJ Hickson and Anthony Parker, you are an idiot.
Gay is a restricted free agent this summer – leaving them room to either match his contract or sign-and-trade for a number of pieces. Restricted free agency drives down the salary a player commands, making it more likely Memphis can match. Or, in the worst case scenario for Memphis, they get Gay for another year as he plays out the last year of his contract for $4M per year.
Chances of that trade ever happening: 0%. When a player is good enough that you’ll think he’s a Scottie Pippen side-kick, you can’t get him for a raw project and a 34 year old journeyman.
I like the idea of picking up Gay, but he is also a guy that has not made it through a whole year with a 3PT% over 40%. I think a deadly outside shooter or a shooting PF is what the Cavs need. Getting a great SF/SG guy is okay, but I would want to address the real weakness in our team right now.
All that young talent around Kevin Durant will become free agents in one way or another around the same time and no team will be able to keep them all.
My thought was to never trade for Shaq at the trade deadline last year. I was hoping they would trade for Salmons and Miller. Obviously Chicago jumped on that one…
Two thoughts:
1. When Danny Ferry was hired the degree of difficulty for the job was especially hard. The thought was, at the time, that LeBron was going to leave for greener pastures at the end of his first contract unless the Cavs could immediately contend. Strictly out of business reasons, the number one goal of Danny’s first few years on the job was keeping LeBron happy and in Cleveland. Because the Jim Paxson era had stripped the Cavs of any young talent outside of LeBron (most egregiously when they let Boozer go for absolutely nothing), Danny Ferry was left with a bare cupboard when he started the job. Thus the only way the Cavs could do to get better faster was sign veteran free agents around LeBron before he bolted. This manifested itself during the Summer of 2005 where the Cavs signed Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones to contracts when the Cavs failed to Michael Redd and Ray Allen, their first choices. In the short term, it worked beautifully because Lebron re-signed with the franchise because the Cavs were soon in the playoffs and competing for titles but harmful in the long run when Larry Hughes proved that he wasn’t a professional basketball player, the Cavs were crippled with his lethal contract.
After riding the Larry Hughes train as far as it could go (shockingly, an NBA Finals trip), he started to suss out short-term moves that could potentially improve the Cavs around Lebron. He traded Larry Hughes and perennial head case, Drew Gooden, for what eventually turned out to be Mo Williams, Delonte West and Shaquille O’Neal. The Cavs are now one of the co-favorites to win the East this year.
Simmons fails to note that the Cavs circumstances were completely different than the Sonics/Thunders because they never had the assets to trade around to get better and because LeBron was so good, the Cavs weren’t at the bottom of the heap in the league for too long that they couldn’t draft an elite young talent to build around LeBron. Other than Larry Hughes, all of the mistakes of the last seven years of the Cavs can be pinned on the ineptitude of Jim Paxson losing Boozer, drafting Luke Jackson in 2004 over Al Jefferson and trading away our 2005 draft pick for the immortal Jiri Welsch in a two year span.
2. My thoughts on Rudy Gay are this. The Grizz are hemorrhaging money right now and the signing of Allen Iverson makes Rudy Gay extremely expendable. It’s telling that the Grizz were allegedly offering him 10 million and Gay was asking for 12 and they weren’t willing to compromise and offer 11. (Or rather the deal that Rondo got.) My thoughts are they don’t see a place for him on the team now that Mayo offers basically the same package as Gay does and Mayo is still under contract for another two years. He’s going to be available.
Any deal the Cavs were to make for him off that bat would require us to take on Marko Jaric’s awful contract. There is no way that doesn’t happen so get ready for two years of Marko Jaric sitting in a suit on the end of the bench. We most assuredly would have to trade Z and Hickson and a 2010 first round draft in the deal. Which would rob us of a size which could assuredly be fatal for us this year.
The question would be is Z, Hickson and a number one pick be enough of a lure for the Grizz to consider. One aspect of the deal, you didn’t mention is that Chris Wallace the GM of the Grizz is extremely sensitive about people claiming he was fleeced in the the Gasol deal. I don’t see him just giving away Gay the way he gave away Gasol.
My thinking any deal the Cavs have for Gay would look like this:
1. Rudy Gay
2. Marko Jaric
For
1. Illgauskaus
2. J.J. Hickson
3. The Rights To Christian Eyenga
4. 2010 First Round Pick
5. Conditional 2012 First Round Pick
what people aren’t realizing is the Gay has already been in trade discussions. And that he is VERY unhappy with his role on the team. He went from being the 1st option to the 4th option in one year. He has to contend with Mayo, AI, and Randolph. None of those guys are known to be team first……
Yes everyone, I KNOW it’s not that easy to just pry away a guy like Rudy Gay. But think about the dynamics involved. 1) Memphis can’t afford to keep him, and he’ll get the money he’s looking for in the open market (especially in a 2010 climate where half the league has cap room), 2) they can either get SOME pieces back for him or risk losing him for NOTHING. It’s going to be hard for them to get face value for him since he’s still on his rookie contract and making such little money (relatively speaking, since he’s still making $3 million).
Based on his salary and situation in Memphis, what’s a fair trade for him? You can’t trade, say, T-Mac for him because T-Mac makes eight times as much money. Or you can’t trade — again, for example — even Gerald Wallace for him because GW makes nearly three times as much.
I honestly wouldn’t even mind trading Mo Williams for Rudy Gay but again Mo makes three times Gay’s salary. If the Grizzlies want to move him, they’re going to have to trade for somebody else on a rookie contract if they want anything close to comparable talent back.
Won’t matter.
Rudy Gay won’t change a damn thing in regard to LeBron getting a ring. A championship team need at least 2 LEGIT superstars and quality role players around them.
Kobe/Pau-Lamar,Ariza,Fisher
KG/Pierce/Allen-Posey,Rondo,Perkins,Powe
so on and so on
Cleveland needs to pull a big time trade or a huge free agent signing to get them to that championship level. Mid-Level scrubs and has-beens will not do the trick. LeBron needs a legit superstar that complements his game not stifles it.
Also Mike Brown MUST be fired. He is a spectacular defensive coach put is completely inept at coordinating an offense. He will have his lunch eaten mid-series by a competent coach.like Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich, or even Stan Van.
If Lebron really wants a ring his best chance would be to go to a franchise with a rich tradition and a commitment to winning. Either that or meet up another legit superstar in Chicago/Miami/New York
RB,
You can compare this to the Joe Johnson situation in Phoenix back in 04/05. The Suns offered 5 years $45 mil and JJ’s camp wanted 5 years $50 mil. They were $5 mil apart for the life of the deal and decided to play it out in restricted free agency. Then JJ got a MAX OFFER from Atlanta, which at the time seemed insane (the Hawks ownership even went to court over it). Phoenix, a team that couldn’t afford another max player on top of Steve Nash’s max contract, Amare’s max contract which he signed that summer, and Marion’s monster deal which at the time still had four years left.
So they did a sign-and-trade, and even then the Suns got back two first-round draft picks and Boris Diaw, who was the 12th man on a 69-loss Hawks team.
If you want to wait for free agency, I can agree with you on that. But the Cavs don’t have the cap room to even offer Gay the contract that he wants ($12-13 million a year). They may have to take back Zach Randolph’s horrible contract if they really want Gay this year.
Bizzle, I’m curious why you consider Gasol a superstar. In nine years in the league he has been to two all-star games, both times as a reserve. I’m thinking a better example for your argument would be Kobe/Shaq, Wade/Shaq and soon to be James/Shaq. I am also curious why you choose Chicago/Miami/New York as cities with a “rich tradition and a commitment to winning”. If you remove the Jordan years, the Bulls overall have a .450 winning percent with no visits to the finals. The Knicks a .499 winning percent with two NBA championships in ‘70 and ’73. Finally, Miami a .482 winning percent with one championship. Maybe San Antonio(.578)/Boston(.590)/LA(.633) would have been a better choice. They all have overall winning records and over 20 championships between them.
Ben, you hit the nail on the head in regards to Wally. Raef Lafrentz deal was actually a “super” expiring contract because, since Raef was hurt, insurance was picking up a big percentage of his salary. So you can see that since the Blazers couldn’t move Raef, that teams just weren’t willing to just give away quality players for salary relief. So MBJ23, it wasn’t a highbrow sense of loyalty that prevented Ferry, it was a lack of sellers. MBJ23, I’d love to see Amare or Bosh in a Caviler colors next year, how do you recommend that Ferry goes about getting either of these guys? We don’t have the cap room to sign them so I’m curious how you think it can be done?
Why in the world would Memphis trade Rudy Gay for JJ Hickson and Parker? An All Star for a couple bench guys???