July 2, 2009
Tom Gieryn: July 1 Game Recap
Braves 11, Phillies 1
MVP: Jair Jurrjens. Seven innings, no earned runs gets him the player of the game nod.
LVP: Diory Hernandez. But...but...he hit a home run, how can he be LVP? Well, first, this was a game where nobody really played badly, and second, he hit his homer when it was already 9-1. The homer is outweighed by a leadoff infield fly in the third and a GIDP in the fourth, when the score was still relatively close.
MIP: Martin Prado's third-inning double with men on first and second and one out, scoring two runs. In a game as one-sided as this one was, the first runs are almost always the most important.
UotG: Offense. Second day in a row the bats have shown up.
Minors
Mississippi: Matt Young went 3-for-4 with a double and a triple; he's way too old to still be playing at Double-A, but he was named to the Southern League All-Star team for the second straight year and he's hit.347/.475/.516 over the last month. He can play just about any position that doesn't involve pitching or wearing a mask, so he might help somebody someday as a 25th man. Not bad for a guy that went undrafted out of the University of New Mexico. For the record, journeyman catcher J.C. Boscan and pitcher Kyle Cofield are Mississippi's two other All-Stars. Outfielder Willie Cabrera, who started to creep on the prospect scene at Myrtle Beach last year, hitting .298/.398/.477 in the past 28 days, and he went 2-for-4. Nice to see our old (if temperamental) friend Eric Campbell with a two-hit night as well.
Promising Mexican lefty Edgar Osuna continues to struggle after being promoted, and he lasted just 4 2/3 innings in this start, allowing two homers. He's still young yet, however. The bullpen played some nice pick-me-up, with righties Brent Butts and Cory Gearrin and lefty Brian Dumesnil tossing 5 1/3 scoreless innings; any or all of those guys could end up in the middle of somebody's bullpen someday. I've always been kind of a closet Dumesnil fan, as he's a guy the Braves picked up off the scrap heap after he had Tommy John surgery; he's pretty old at 25 and he's Canadian, but left-handed relievers with mid-90s heat don't come around every day.
Myrtle Beach: Cody Johnson got on base three times, twice by walk to keep up his Three True Outcomes goodness (though that K rate is scary and could cause major problems at higher levels, since prospects tend to lose the walks and keep the strikeouts as they move up; then again, there aren't many players with Cody's pure power). Jesus Sucre had two more hits also.
Cole Rohrbough continues to frustrate, as he shows flashes of brilliance but can't seem to get results. Six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings would be pretty good had he not also walked three, allowed a homer and five earned runs. He obviously has the stuff to succeed, but the Carolina League is a pitcher's dream (especially Myrtle Beach's stadium), so he ought to be doing better than a 5.27 ERA.
Rome: Not much to report here. Yet another weak offensive day for an offense that doesn't possess much talent, and a rough start for under-the-radar but nonetheless promising lefty Dimaster (not to be confused with Randall) Delgado.
Danville: Adam Milligan continues to rake, posting yet another multi-hit game to bring his line to .439/.500/.756 for the year so far, and Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg keeps abusing baseballs, as he went 4-for-4 to raise his season averages to a ridiculous .548/.583/.903 in 31 PAs. Tyler Stovall, last year's third overall pick for the Braves, had a weird start, tossing 4 1/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball while walking--count 'em--seven men. 2009 fifth-rounder Thomas Berryhill, who touches 98 on the gun, tossed a perfect ninth for the save.
July 1, 2009
Tom Gieryn: Daily Tidbits, Latin American Prospects and Yunel Trade Possibilities?
All right, a couple tidbits from the morning's news that bear worth sharing.
First, the Braves are as active as ever in this year's international market. They haven't been rumored in connection to any of the super-hyped Latin American prospects, but we're now getting some reports of some lower-bonus guys they might be looking at. Baseball America reports the Braves' are hot on the trail of lefty Edgar Ferreira, who can hit 93-94 MPH with his fastball. Jorge Arangure of ESPN tweets that Braves' international scouting director Johnny Almaraz watched the workout of shortstop Humberto Valor, who one scout called the "best position player prospect in Venezuela." His bonus could touch $2 million.
Also, Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors tells us that Buster Olney is reporting on ESPN Insider that the Braves "are willing to trade Yunel Escobar for a good hitter." It seems Yunel has really fallen out of favor in the Atlanta clubhouse, and it's getting to the point where I really wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt at some point, as he has plenty of trade value. Not sure who the Braves would use to replace him at shortstop, but perhaps such a move could be the "wake-up call" move that many fans have been wanting to see to jumpstart the team.
July 1, 2009
Introducing Tom Gieryn, Our New Writer
For our second introduction in as many days, allow me to present the other winner of the writing contest, Tom Gieryn. I'll let him take it away from here!
Greetings, Chop-n-Change denizens...my
name is Tom Gieryn, and I'll be the other new guy joining the
estimable C-n-C blogging team. Many of you know me as "Tom"
from the comments, and I look forward to bringing the same objective
perspective to the front page.
One of the things we're going to try to start over here (now that we're fully staffed) is a nightly recap of the day in BraveWorld. We'll always start our evening tour in the lovely city of Atlanta, but we'll also make stops across the Southeast, in beautiful destinations like Pearl, Mississippi and Danville, Virginia to visit the various Braves minor-league affiliates and see what they've been up to.
First things first: the big
club. Every night, we'll of course give you the score, but as
you expect from C-n-C, we don't stop at the easy stuff. We're
also going to try to glean some game-by-game insight by looking at FanGraphs'
excellent win probability data.
(To get us started, a little primer
on Win Probability Added; if you've seen this drill before, skip down below.
WPA is a metric that measures each player's direct
impact on the team's chances to win a given game. Based on years
of play-by-play data, we have matrices that show the probability that
a given team will go on to win a given game depending on the situation -- which is defined by the inning, the number of outs, the score, and
how many runners are on which bases.
In the simplest example,
in the top of the first with no outs, no runners and a 0-0 score, each
team has a 50% chance to win. If the leadoff guy hits a home run,
we go look back at all the games where that situation has come up (top
1, 1-0 score, no outs, no runners), and see how often the team leading
1-0 actually went on to win the game: that gives us a probability that
either team will wind up victorious. And baseball is a zero-sum
game -- i.e., as good as that homer is for the team that hit it, it's
equally bad for the other team.
So, we attribute the
change in probability to the hitter and the pitcher. If the
team's chance to win goes from 50% to 60% because of the leadoff homer,
then the hitter gets a +0.10 and the pitcher gets a -0.10. This
is going to give major credit for hitting or pitching in clutch situations;
a pitcher who throws nine shutout innings to win 1-0 is going to have
a far higher WPA than a pitcher who tosses a shutout but gets tons of
run support. As a result, WPA is not--repeat, NOT--a metric
to evaluate future performance, since obviously those two hypothetical
shutouts require equal talent from the pitcher. But if you're
trying to look back at which shutout was more valuable, obviously the
"clutch" shutout is.)
So, with that out of the way,
here's what info we'll bring you after every game:
MVP: This will be the player
with the highest WPA total for the game. Whose contributions did
the most to help the Braves win? Even in a loss, we'll look
at whose fault it wasn't.
LVP: This player had the lowest
WPA total for the game. For a win, we won in spite of this guy;
for a loss, he's to blame the most.
MIP: This stands for Most Important
Play. This is the single play with the highest change in
win probability. This play was the one that did the most to help
one team or the other put the game away, and there will be some surprises
sometimes. In a 1-0 game, you'd think the single run would be
the biggest factor, but sometimes you'll find that the MIP was a time
when the losing team, say, grounded into a double play with the bases
loaded and one out.
UotG: I really need a better
acronym for this (suggestions welcome). This is "Unit of the
Game," for lack of a better term. For this, I split the team
into offense, starting pitcher, and bullpen. I total up the WPA
for each of those groups, and name the unit who contributed most to the
result (in a win, who was best; in a loss, who was worst). This
way we'll be able to look at trends across many games, and identify
strengths and problem spots.
Then we'll go around the minors, and I'll give a tidbit or two from each minor-league team that played on any given night. I see no reason to give scores, as what I'm most concerned about is the commentary: who played well or didn't?
So, without further ado...
Around
BraveWorld June 30th:
Braves 5, Phillies 4 (10 inn.)
This one was a roller coaster,
folks. Braves took a 3-2 lead into the eighth after a solid six
innings from Derek Lowe, but the Phils got back-to-back solo shots from
John Mayberry Jr. and Pedro Feliz to put the Phillies up 4-3.
MVP: Martin Prado.
The guy had a WPA of .668 for this game. In every game, the winning
team has a +0.5, and the losers get a -0.5, so a 0.668 figure means
that Prado not only did enough to win the game by himself, but his contributions
were enough to also erase the negative contributions of some of his
teammates.
Prado went 4-for-5 and drove in four of the Braves'
five runs: a third-inning RBI single to tie the game at one, a fifth-inning
solo homer to tie the game at two, an eighth-inning, two-out RBI double
to tie the game at four after the Phillies had taken the lead in the
top of the inning, and the walk-off RBI single off the indomitable Chan
Ho Park in the tenth. That's about as impressive of a performance
as you'll ever see -- the Braves kept trying to give the game away,
but Prado just wouldn't let them do it. Even as big of a KJ
fan as I am, we need to find a way to get this guy's stick into the
lineup more often.
LVP: Mike Gonzalez.
Took a 3-2 lead into the eighth and gave up a pair of home runs to put
the Phillies ahead. (With his WPA of -0.427, he nearly lost
this game single-handedly. He owes his teammates a drink for covering
his back.)
MIP: Prado's RBI double
with two outs in the eighth, tying the game at four. Remember
what I said about surprises? The MIP is not the walk-off hit,
because that came with no outs in a situation where the Braves didn't
have to get a hit right then. But in the eighth, with two
outs and down a run, the Braves had their backs against the wall, and
Martin delivered.
UotG: Offense. For all the grief our offense has taken lately, they came to play tonight. Pitchers kept giving the Phillies runs, but the offense kept getting them right back.
June 30, 2009
Introducing James Piette, Our New Writer
Our writer's contest actually had two winners. Today, we're introducing James Piette, one of the two Charlie Buckets. Later this week we'll introduce our other winner, Tom, whom many of you may know from the comment threads. I'm posting this under my name because we're waiting for the tech support guys to get him his own login and stuff. Everything below the italics is all James.
Before I start rambling on and on with numbers, claims, and cultural references, I think it is important that I introduce myself. My name is James Piette and I have been an avid Braves' fan since back in the days when Fred "Fire Dog" McGriff was just acquired and the Tomahawk Chop was still intimidating.[1] My current occupation is a 3rd year PhD student in Statistics at the Wharton School of Business, which makes me one of the worst kind of people. My focus, which regrettably is not the most respected in academia, is entirely on sports, whether it be basketball, cricket, or hockey, but my true passion is in baseball.
Somehow, I impressed Alex and Kristi[2] enough to give me a shot as a writer for Chop-n-Change. I plan to post relatively frequently focusing mainly on developing stories surrounding the Braves', players who are under/over-performing, specific issues related to the team's strengths and weaknesses, and anything in between. Due to my incredibly geeky nature, these posts will inevitably be full of tirades lambasting and praising trades, players, front offices, etc., via statistical evidence, along with a little (hopefully) witty rhetoric. I plan on devoting ample time to each post's comments, as well. If I start becoming too obscure and out-of-touch, feel free to bring me back down to Earth through your hate.
As this is my first post, I feel it is appropriate to write about the question that I most often get asked when I explain to Northeners that I am not a Sox/Yankees/Mets/Phillies fan: What chance do you give the Braves to make the playoffs? Before looking at existing computer predictions, let's take a look at the standings. At 35 - 40, Atlanta is 5.0 games back of the Phillies. While plenty of teams in baseball's history have made more impressive pushes to get into the playoffs, our chances would appear to be dwindling fast.
One might suggest we have gotten unlucky, but that does not appear to be the case. Our luck score, or our current number of wins minus the Pythagorean-formulated number of wins[3], is 0 this year, compared to last year when it was -6. If luck isn't the case, is it simply the Braves' are not good enough to win the division title?
My next step when evaluating this question is to look to Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds, a page with computer predictions of postseason odds for every team. They list three sets of probabilities for each team making the playoffs, breaking each down into the expected number of wins and losses, the actual winning percentage of each team, and the chance of being crowned the division champion or wild card. I've decided ELO-adjusted is completely out of their mind[4] and the original version is not adjusted for current roster[5], so I am sticking with the PECOTA-adjusted odds.[6]
You'll note that our current chance of getting into the playoffs is about 25.6%, which breaks down into 20.9% odds at winning the division and 4.7% probability of winning the wild card. That is pretty good, considering the lead Philadelphia has. I would have pegged it around 20% myself, but I suppose this is why I am the eternal pessimist. However, this is not the most surprising number on the page. The Braves' Pct3, or the expected winning percentage, is 0.546, which, relative to the rest of the NL, is the 2nd best such number behind the Dodgers at 0.582. That is, the Braves' have the 2nd highest expected winning percentage, a higher value than any other team in the NL East. I'll let that sink in before continuing on.
Perhaps this doesn't come as a surprise to most of you. Kudos to you. For those of you who are in my shoes banging your head against the wall every time our outfield fails, this should come as a sigh of relief. I specifically remember this wasn't the case a month ago, but with all of the injuries to the Mets and the ineptitude of Philly pitching, it does not seem like too much of a stretch. Because I am a complete nerd, I decided to see what our chances of winning the division would have been if each team in the division started with their current Pct3 (i.e. for 6/29). After running 1,000,000 simulations[7], where I consider each team to have started the season with June 29th's posted, PECOTA-adjusted, expected winning percentages and play out 162 games, I got the following results for the approximate probability of each team winning the division[8]:
Braves: 0.463
Phillies: 0.397
Mets: 0.098
Marlins: 0.042
Nationals: 0.000
To have a 46.3% probability of winning the division title is a huge accomplishment for any team. While the Phillies would still have a substantial chance of taking the crown, considering how close 0.541, the Phillies' Pct3, and 0.546 are, it is a big discrepancy. Of course, this isn't even taking into account the wild card, which I did simultaneously using the same simulations.[9] The wild card was won by the Braves' 11.6% of the time; this is fairly often when conditioning on them being eligible to win it (i.e. did not win the division).[10] Thus, according to my simulations, the Braves' playoff chances if we were to flashback in time to April 5th, but using current rosters and player progressions, then we have a 57.8% probability of making it to the playoffs.
While that whole venture into exploiting PECOTA's abilities was exhausting, it puts up a few good points that I will end with. The first being that the Braves pitching depth is great, while the Phillies and the Mets are really suffering from their respective garbage they picked up this summer. Second, the Braves are still in this playoff race. With Tim Hudson coming back soon after the All-Star break and a front office that is almost always engaging in positive dealings, I think it's safe to say that our expected winning percentage will only go up. Lastly, if you work/live with any Phillies/Mets fans, a feeling I can relate to so well being in Philadelphia, then the next time they bring up Atlanta's fortune this year, you'll know that your team is the best team, right now, in the NL East. Unless either team acquires a star player. In that case, just cry loudly and they'll leave you alone.
Read more...June 29, 2009
How to Enjoy a Game at The Ted
Every once in awhile here on Chop 'n Change we do a fun, silly post just to lighten things up. Just to highlight a few, I've done To The Braves: Will You Be My Valentine?, The Ten Commandments of Attending a Baseball Game, and Alex did Atlanta Braves: The Movie. We usually resort to these types of posts in the offseason when things are slow, but since I'll be on vacation by the time you read this, I was in the mood for something fun and admittedly random.
First, I'd like to provide you with my baseball playlist. I created this before I left to drive down to Spring Training this year have listened to it before every game I've attended this year. Just really gets me in the mood for some baseball! I welcome all suggestions for additions to the playlist, as I'm sure I've missed some good ones!
1. Centerfield by John Fogerty (THE classic baseball song after Take Me Out to the Ballgame)
2. Cheap Seats by Alabama (another natural choice)
3. Taking Care of Business by B.T.A. (Does anyone else remember the Taking Care of Pittsburgh spoof that was done back in '91 by Fox 97 here in Atlanta? I have it on tape and have been trying to acquire the technology to upload the song for you all!)
4. Fortunate Son by CCR (just seems to come on a lot at games)
5. Rock'n Me by the Steve Miller Band (again, seems to come on a lot at games)
6. Start Me Up by the Rolling Stones (another classic played at games)
7. You Shook Me All Night Long by AC/DC (yet another classic played at games)
8. Crazy Train by Ozzy Osbourne (I'm sure most of you know Chipper used this song for years as his at-bat song)
9. What I Like About You by The Romantics (again, played at a lot of games)
10. Sweet Caroline by Neil Diamond (a tribute to the Red Sox, my other love)
11. Hells Bells by AC/DC (a tribute to John Smoltz and his days as the Braves closer, although I still never understood why that was his song because it doesn't really seem to fit him)
And in other randomness, here is my guide to eating at The Ted:
Peachtree Pizza: found all over the stadium, this is the most recent version of pizza available at the stadium. I could seriously eat pizza everyday, so I've tried every version of pizza available at the stadium over the years and this ranks in the top two. They have huge slices and they're pretty good as long as you get them when they're fresh.
Chick-Fil-A: my favorite Atlanta staple finally made it to The Ted, replacing a fledging Moe's on the 100 level close to the plaza. Although a bit more pricey than the ones you find around town, the quality is the same. If you want fries, nuggets or wraps, you'll need to hit the one on the 100 level just off the plaza going towards the first base side of The Ted. If you're only looking for the classic sandwich, you can find that on the 200 level not too far from home plate in a tent, on the 400 level around first base or being sold in the stands.
The Chop House: a full-service restaurant located just off the plaza above right field, The Chop House has become a huge fan favorite at The Ted. My brother goes for the hot wings and my friends love to stand against the railing and watch the game while grabbing a beer. Some fans never make it to their seats, instead choosing to watch the game from the railing. You'll need to arrive early if you want to grab a spot with a view from The Chop House for the game. As far as the food goes, it's fairly good although pricier than your other concessions.
The 755 Club: featuring a buffet, a sports bar and a menu you can order from, the 755 Club is a members-only restaurant above left field with floor to ceiling glass windows overlooking the field. If you get there early, there are also tables out on a patio overlooking the field. Don't let the members-only part scare you off - there are always plenty of passes for sale on eBay and Craigslist if you want to try it out! I'm more of a baseball traditionalist though and prefer to grab something from the concession stand to eat in my seat while I watch batting practice. I have had some delightful meals at the buffet in the past though.
Smokehouse BBQ: formerly Skip & Pete's BBQ, this is located right in the plaza and features ribs, pulled pork, pulled chicken, beef brisket and turkey legs along with accompanying sides. It's not really my style, but my father frequents it. I hate that they renamed it after Skip passed away and Pete retired, but maybe it's what those guys wanted.
Tomahawk Tavern: last but not least, if you're looking for a frozen adult beverage, hit up Tomahawk Tavern at Sections 120, 122 or 235 for a Tomarita. They also feature a variety of beers and wines.
Other concessions around the park have the usual ballpark fare. If you're one of those who doesn't care for the footlong hotdogs you may have trouble locating the "normal" size ones at Turner Field. We canvassed the ballpark for them this week and located them just outside Section 412. As an added bonus, these shorter dogs are Hebrew National hotdogs for those looking for a kosher dog.
I hear there are some non-traditional selections in the Lexus Level if anyone wants to comment on those. Personally, I don't like to sit in the Lexus Level and haven't done so in years, so I can't provide much guidance there.
I'm interested to hear other opinions and suggestions for Braves game-related traditions, treats or other interesting facts!
June 28, 2009
Six Games in Six Days: Vazquez Pitches a Gem but No Win
Javier Vazquez had one of his strongest outings this season and the Braves offense couldn't even manage to get one run for him. In a game where I saw his ERA drop from 3.18 to 3.09 out on the screen in left field, Vazquez fell to 5-7 on the year. He pitched 7 2/3 innings and gave up only 6 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 8. O'Flaherty and Soriano finished off the game without allowing another hit.
Yet, I'm having to sit here and tell you about how the Braves lost to the Red Sox by a score of 0-1. While I think the home plate umpire did Vazquez and the Braves huge disservice by failing to call a strikeout on Big Papi in the sixth, allowing the inning to continue until a run was finally scored, the fact remains that you cannot win a game without scoring runs. And you certainly cannot win a game without scoring any runs at all.
The Braves had just four hits yesterday, two from Gregor Blanco who was filling in for the injured Nate McClouth. I'll give them credit and point out that there were only two strikeouts, both on Diory Hernandez. They just couldn't get a ball to fall in a gap, especially when there were runners on base. Speaking of runners on base, the Braves had two stolen bases yesterday. Perhaps not all that noteworthy except that one of them was by Brian McCann. Not at all known for his speed, McCann managed to rack up his fourth stolen base of the year. The element of surprise and the slow nature of Wakefield's pitching were contributors. Nonetheless, I love seeing McCann steal a base!
Today the Braves will send rookie Tommy Hanson (3-0, 3.13 ERA, and the author of our last win) to face Brad Penny (6-2, 4.93). This matchup is certainly the best shot at a win we've had this series, so let's hope we at least manage to avoid the sweep!
I'm leaving town from the game today, so I may not be able to get up the sixth installment of Six Games in Six Days, but I'll certainly try.
June 27, 2009
Six Games in Six Days: You Have to Score Runs to Win
I know it sounds pretty basic, but it seems to be the basics that we're lacking. You simply cannot win games if you don't score runs, and scoring one run in the bottom of the ninth isn't exactly what I had in mind. But David Ross' solo homerun in the bottom of the ninth was the only time a Braves player would cross the plate last night. Although they out-hit Boston, they couldn't seem to produce RBIs.
Boston's Josh Beckett and Jair Jurrjens were evenly matched if you look at the boxscore and ignore the runs and earned runs columns. Beckett pitched 7 innings and gave up 6 hits while striking out 6. JJ pitched 8 innings and gave up 7 hits while striking out 6. However, JJ also walked three and gave up 4 runs, 3 of those earned runs. Mike Gonzalez pitched a perfect ninth innings, striking out all three batters he faced. Despite the similarities in pitching performances, the story last night was Boston's ability to post some RBIs and the Braves lack thereof.
As if the third straight loss at home wasn't depressing enough, now I have to tell you about the declining health of our team. Brian McCann sat out last night's game with a "light-headed sensation," but team officials say they're not worried because of the arduous duty he pulled the previous four nights in the Atlanta heat. McCann did come in as a pinch hitter in the ninth doubled off Papelbon, so I expect we'll see him back in the lineup tonight.
Yunel Escobar sat out last night with the sore right hip flexor he's had for about a month now after Cox noticed him having some issues with it in Thursday night's game. I think we were all ready for Escobar to have an night off after his attitude in Thursday night's game. For those who missed it, Escobar made a diving stop on an A-Rod grounder in the fourth but was charged with an error on his throw to first. The television cameras all caught him pointing to the press box and spitting out an expletive. He then stood with his hands on his thighs during the next two pitches, unready for what might come at him next. During a pitching change later in the inning, he continued to sulk with his arms crossed over his chest. We've seen a lot of this attitude lately, and the press has widely covered his refusal to discuss his missteps with the press after the games. Cox indicated, however, that his replacement by Diory Hernandez last night was due to the sore hip and not the sour attitude. No word on whether he'll play today.
And if all that wasn't enough, Nate McClouth strained his left hamstring legging out a bunt in the eighth inning. Okajima had trouble grabbing the ball and McClouth was safe at the bag. Unfortunately, he had to be removed and Gregor Blanco entered in his place. McClouth is listed as day-to-day and could still play today.
Today, the Braves will have to overcome the injuries and sore spots and beat knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield (9-3, 4.47 ERA). Javier Vazquez (5-6, 3.18 ERA) will take the mound for the Braves, looking for a win to tie up his record. Vazquez has pitched better than his record shows, but like the other Braves starters he hasn't gotten the run support he needed. An offensive performance like last night won't get it done, so lets hope the bats are hot today.
In totally unrelated but notable news, Georgia native Melanie Oudin, who was unseeded at Wimbledon, has beaten the #20 and #6 seeds to advance to Week 2. A huge feat for the Marietta native, and one I couldn't resist mentioning!
June 26, 2009
Six Games in Six Days: Jeff Bennett is an Idiot
UPDATE FROM ALEX: The deadline for submissions to our writing contest has passed. Thanks to all who tried out. Kristi and I will contact you shortly with further information.
---
This is a long one, but I promise it's worth the read....
Just when I thought Jeff Bennett had done everything he could to make me dislike him, he goes and breaks his hand punching a door. Did I mention that he did this during a game in which he was still the pitcher? You'll recall in my post after Wednesday's game that I mentioned Bennett giving up a two-out, two-run hit to A-Rod to give the Yankees the lead. Well, apparently he was as mad at himself as I was at him and he proceeded to punch a door just outside the dugout. But the stupidity didn't stop there. No, he was so embararssed that he didn't tell anyone what he'd done or that a bump was raising under the skin on his non-throwing hand. Nope, he went back out and pitched in the seventh, giving up a homerun to the first batter he faced. After his poor performance on Sunday, in which he managed to lose the game in just one pitch, one might have thought his poor performance on Wednesday would jeopardize his position on the active roster. It did, just not in the way I had hoped. For now he's on the 15-day disabled list and Boone Logan has been recalled from Gwinnett to take his place.
Speaking of Boone Logan, he got a chance to come in the game last night after Derek Lowe had a less than stellar performance. I'll never forget him beating the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, but apparently they haven't forgotten either and were out for revenge. Lowe lasted only three innings and gave up 11 hits, 8 runs (6 of them earned runs) and walked three. It simply wasn't his night. After that, a flurry of Atlanta relievers worked their way through the rest of the game, in part because Medlen was unavailable for long relief after having to relieve Kawakami on Wednesday evening. Medlen did come in for an inning and manage to hold the status quo, followed by O'Flaherty who did the same. Then Boone Logan got his shot and pitched a scoreless sixth inning, only to falter in the seventh and be removed after giving up two more runs to the Yankees. Moylan and Acosta followed to finish up the game and the Braves lost 11-7.
If there was a silver lining, it was the Braves scoring seven runs and Francouer having a rare two-hit night. Prado, Anderson and Escobar each contributed with a two-hit evening as well, with Escobar contributing three RBIs. But all the hits and RBIs in the world for Escobar won't make up for his seemingly endless string of blunders lately. Last night was no exception, with Escobar being charged with both a fielding and a throwing error. I've heard that a sore right hip is to blame, but I'm not buying it. A sore right hip doesn't explain all the base running errors he's made this year. Mental errors on the bags and on the field removed, Escobar has committed eleven errors at shortstop this year according to the official stats. That's only five less than he committed all year last year and we're not even at the All-Star break yet! Now add in the mental errors that don't make the stats, like during the Pirates series when he didn't notice a runner breaking for home after a play and we lost the game 3-2, or earlier in June when he rounded first too far and got caught on his way back to first, or in the Orioles series when he chose to make a late throw to the plate instead of tagging out a runner in a run-down situation...and these are just examples I remember from June!
I know I'm going to catch some heat for this, but here goes anyway. Being both a Braves and a Red Sox fan, I'm a little conflicted over who to root for this weekend. I have always rooted for the Braves when they play the Red Sox, because bottom line is that they're my hometown team. However, I've always said that if the Braves are out of it and the Red Sox need the win to stay ahead of the Yankees, then I'll root for the Red Sox. They seem to always play around mid-season though when everyone is really still in the pennant race, so I always end up rooting for the Braves. It's a harder sell this year though after seeing the way things have gone when I truly thought we had the tools to win this year. We have a terrific starting rotation who should all have better records than they currently do. There's plenty of blame to go around too. Francoeur isn't having the better year at the plate that we'd been told to expect, Escobar seems to have lost his mental instincts, Anderson is the laziest outfielder in Major League baseball (although I appreciate what he's done at the plate), and Kelly Johnson makes Francoeur look good at the plate! If I were being rational, I would root for the Red Sox this weekend. There is very little reason to believe the Braves can win the pennant this year, while the Red Sox need my support to protect a four game lead over the Yankees.
But, there's something about baseball that makes us all a little irrational. No matter which team you're a fan of, you go into the season thinking your team has the chance to win it all. It doesn't matter if your team hasn't been to the postseason in the past decade. Against all the odds, all the stats, all the naysayers, you believe your team could be the Cinderella story this year. If you're a Braves fan, you want to believe that the heartbreaking loss of future Hall-of-Famers John Smotlz and Tom Glavine were necessary to make room for the younger guys who can take us all the way. And even now, when we're four games back and the fourth place team in the Division, you might bitch and moan about the team, but somewhere deep down you still think the stars could align and they could pull it out. And it's for that reason that I will proudly put on my Braves hat tonight and be willing to risk the Red Sox sliding in the standings if my Braves can just get some wins!
In other (somewhat related) news, John Smoltz made his first start for the Red Sox last night. If you only heard about the four runs he gave up in the first inning, then you didn't hear the whole story. He settled down after that and stayed in for four more innings and only gave up one more run. Overall he game up seven hits, five runs and one walk while throwing 62 of 92 for strikes in his first start since June 2, 2008.
June 25, 2009
Six Games in Six Days: Perfect Game Ruined in Sixth
Braves pitchers Kenshin Kawakami and Kris Medlen had a perfect game going until the sixth inning. I bet a lot of you didn't even notice that. The final score of 8-4, in favor of the Yankees, certainly didn't reflect that terrific start.
For those who didn't see the game and have been living under a rock ever since, Kenshin Kawakami came out in the third after a line drive off the bat of opposing pitcher, Joba Chamberlain, hit him in the lower neck. Although it was quite the scare, we hear that he's only bruised and day-to-day. Rookie pitcher, Kris Medlen, came in for long relief and continued Kawakami's perfect game into the sixth inning. That's when the Yankees bats came alive though, as they scored three in the sixth. Although it was Medlen who loaded the bases, it was my least favorite Braves reliever, Jeff Bennett, who helped unload some of them. He gave up a two-run single to A-Rod and came back the next inning and gave up a leadoff homerun to Nick Swisher. Normally I think you would have seen Moylan come in the game instead of Bennett, but he was deemed unavailable because he had pitched the previous three games.
Basically last night left us with a lot of what-if's. What if Kawakami hadn't been injured in the third - could he have continued his perfect game or at least gotten the win? What if Moylan had been available to come in with the bases loaded in the sixth? What if Brian McCann's throw to Casey Kotchman on an attempted double play in the hadn't hit Robinson Cano? What if the umps had made the right call and called interference on Cano?
That one's in the books though, so the focus turns to tonight and what is bound to be a pitcher's duel between Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) and Andy Pettite (7-3, 4.26 ERA).
Some miscellaneous information I've learned over the past two nights:
- The Braves will celebrate Independence Day with fireworks after the July 2nd game. They will also be giving out commemorative Coke bottles featuring the Coca-Cola bottle in Sky Field.
- Which leads me to tidbit number two - in case you haven't heard, Coca-Cola is removing the bottle in Sky Field this and replacing it with a newer, more technologically savvy model.
- All-American Rejects are performing after the July 18th game.
- All seats in the Golden Moon Pavilion are $6 for the remainder of the 2009 season in honor of Bobby Cox's 2000th win!
June 24, 2009
Brent Dorfman: Should the Braves Be Buyers or Sellers?
So we either need to pack it in and start focusing on 2010 as sellers, or make a run at a difference maker and try to compete this year. I think at this point we would be justified in going in either direction. Here is a look at both options.
Buying
We need a big bat. I love Nate McLouth: he's a very solid player who has talent, works hard, and makes a positive impact. But we need a big bat. If we are going to make a run for it, then we have to land a guy who will hit at least 30 home runs and can play LF, RF or 2B. A cleanup hitter who can win games with one swing. And, really, that narrows it down to two guys.
Matt Holliday. He's really the only outfield bat that would make the Braves much better. The A's are in a weird place with him, because they have to decide whether or not they can even offer him arbitration after the year. They have to offer it if they want compensation, but with the down economy and his deflated numbers, he may not get any offers beating out his $17 million or so he would get in arbitration. In other words, he could cripple the A's by accepting arbitration, and the safe move is for them to trade him now and get something in return. That would suggest they would take the best deal offered to them, and have no real leverage to turn down a good deal.
There will be a lot of interest in him from around the league, but given his salary and down numbers, perhaps interest would not be as high as everyone originally though. The Braves would never part ways with Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, or Tommy Hanson to get him. Perhaps instead the Braves would look to deal Kelly Johnson to the A's. I'm not sure we would do it, but he does seem to fit the A's style more so than, say, Cody Johnson. Kelly is moving into his second year of arbitration, and his performance so far this season has legitimately made me wonder whether he is worth the $3.5 million or so he is going to get next year. We have a decent internal replacement in Martin Prado, so this isn't totally out of the question.
Maybe we could even look to sign Holliday to a long-term deal, and clear payroll by not picking up Hudson's option (or trading Vazquez). If we did trade for Holliday we would be way over payroll for this season, as he is still owed some $7 million this year. That means we would have to either increase payroll, which is unlikely, or trade someone, which sort of defeats the purpose of making this move in the first place.
Adam Dunn. Few things are certain in baseball except Francoeur sucking and Adam Dunn hitting 40 homers. And, sure enough, he's on pace to do just that for the 6th straight season. The guy we should have signed in the first place is sitting there wasting away in Capital City, and he would be perfect as our cleanup hitter. He would not cost as much as Holliday, and he's under contract for another season. Again, it would be about finding the cash to take on his salary, and I am not at all sure we could do it. He isn't the same kind of difference maker as Holliday, and he plays bad defense, but he's a huge improvement over what we have.
There is no one else really worth trading for. Mark DeRosa is a really nice player, but he doesn't put us over the edge, and I would rather save the prospects. If we decide to go for it this year, then we need to trade for one of those two guys. (Unless there's someone really random I haven't thought of.) Otherwise, we're just extending our stay in perpetual mediocrity.
Selling
If we choose to sell, these are some of the guys we should look to move, where we could send them, and what we could get.
Relievers. We face the same problem with Soriano and Gonzalez that Oakland does with Holliday. They are both probably going to be type A free agents at the end of the season, which means other clubs will only have tepid interest in signing them. Add in the fact that there is a surplus of able-bodied relievers hitting the free agent market, and there is a legitimate chance that both players would accept arbitration. Of course, that wouldn't be the end of the world for the Braves, who have the financial resources to pay them. But if we could get a good return for either of them, then we should seriously consider making a move.
If we have to pick, I think most people agree that Soriano is the guy we want to keep. The Cubs and Yankees come to mind as contenders looking to sure up their bullpens.