November 18, 2008
Links for 11/18: Peavy, Furcal, Ohman
- The Cubs may be out of the Jake Peavy sweepstakes after re-signing Ryan Dempster, and that is not good news for Padres GM Kevin Towers. Corey Brock of MLB.com says that the Towers may look to bring the Braves back into the mix for Peavy. With this news, one has to wonder if Towers' waiting game may backfire. If the Cubs are indeed out of the running, then Towers has lost a lot of leverage in this situation.
- Peter Gammons of ESPN.com says that Frank Wren still believes his team will end up with Jake Peavy.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com quotes Rafael Furcal's agent as saying the shortstop is "shocked and excited" about the Braves' interest in him. If Yunel Escobar ends up being dealt this off-season, it will be interesting to see if Furcal's excitement and ties to the Braves and the Atlanta area lead to any sort of discount for the Braves.
- In another post, Bowman says that the Braves have made an official offer to free agent reliever Will Ohman. The market for left-handed relievers seems to be set at 2-3 years at around $4 million per year. My gut tells me that won't be back.
Discussion
19 Comments on "Links for 11/18: Peavy, Furcal, Ohman"
#1
Posted by Jay, November 19, 2008 12:04 AM
I'm really leaning towards roughing it out this season but you still have to keep the fans happy at the same time. Here's what I think this offseason should look like.
Trade Brent Lillibridge, Brandon Jones and Charlie Morton for Paul Maholm.
Trade Tyler Flowers, Gorkys Hernandez, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jeff Locke for Zack Grienke
Sign Pat Burrell - 3 yr/ 45 mil contract.
Sign Junichi Tawaza - 5 yr/35 mil ML contract.
Resign John Smoltz - 1 yr/ 5 mil contract w/ incentives, Will Ohman - 3 yr/12 mil contract, Greg Norton - 1 yr/ 2mil contract
Renew Mike Gonzalez, Zack Grienke, Tim Hudson's contracts. Gonzalez - 4 yr/ 28 mil contract, Hudson - 4 yr/ 44 mil contract, Grienke - 5 yr/50 mil contract.
We'd be way under the amount alotted to spend, we could use the rest of the money in the international market and draft.
#2
Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Jay, November 19, 2008 12:32 AM
I don't think Tazawa is going to come anywhere close to that number. He's pretty much a prospect who will need time in the minors and will probably get a contract similar to some of the major league deals handed out to top-5 picks recently. I think around $7 million is the number that a lot of people are talking about.
#3
Posted by Tsu Yuan Nieh, November 19, 2008 3:06 AM
I don't think Tim Hudson will want to take that contract in the current market. I believe 52 mils 4 fours probably more likely for him to sign, he has not had a losing season so far in his career.
Braves might be able to sign Grienke 40 mils for 5 years, he is young. I don't think he is touchable though. Plus, he is not Jack Peavy, I though 4 for 1 deal for Peavy was too much, certainly not for Zach whilst in your list, the four players are an elite list of Braves Prospects. For both Paul Maholm and Grienke, you will drain the Prospects pool.
I say (Brent Lillibridge OR Brandon
Jones and Charlie Morton Paul Maholm.
Tyler Flowers OR Gorkys Hernandez, Jo-Jo Reyes OR Jeff Locke (beware not to drain our lefthanders prospects, they are both left handed) for Zack Grienke.
Please don't think about Pat Burrel. He is extremely overrated (and you give him 15 mils per year).
Tazawa is a prospect, see above. Chen Ming Wang cost 50,000 when he was 22 years old.
Gonzalez is not productive enough to worth 7 mils per year. 4 mils might be ok as a closer, but he might even be Braves' closer anyway.
#4
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 9:50 AM
Not a big fan of Maholm. Who says he is even available? I would much rather go for Ian Snell in a buy-low opportunity. Neither of them are worth Lillibridge, Jones, and Morton. Greinke is a different story. I am not sure he is at all available though. He is a guy I would be willing to unload Flowers for though. If the Royals would take Flowers, Hernandez, and Reyes I would be ecstatic. I would even throw in Frenchy if it would sweeten the deal for the Royals (or even if it wouldn't).
#5
Posted by Brent, November 19, 2008 11:25 AM
I suspect that in the next few days a lot of people are going to be very upset when the old Peavy deal comes back and this time the Pads accept it. Frank Wren must be getting a little desperate right now, seeing all the guys he wanted sign on elsewhere. I'm not sure how interested we really are in Lowe, nor do I suspect he is going to be cheap enough for us. And its fun to play games talking about Greinke and Snell, but the Bucs/Royals have given no indication of wanting to make any deals like that. Not to mention, it would almost certainly cost us Heyward, Hanson or Escobar to get one of them. If we honestly think we are going to get Greinke in a deal built around Frenchy and KJ, then we are just being rediculous.
So I don't think it is inevitable, but i think it is quite likely that when all the dust clears, we are losing Escobar to the Padres. These renewed talks that seem to be starting up are going to grow into a deal, I just don't see anything to stop it. We are the only real bidder left, but at the same time, Peavy is the only real pitcher left that fits our need. That means that we are stuck with each other, and while we may be in a slightly more dominant bargaining position, it is not by much, and I think we will end up sending that package of players.
#6
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 11:38 AM
Brent, Unfortunately, you are right. The only consolation in my mind is if the Braves are able to sign Furcal to return. He did love the Braves, and seems very willing to return. Maybe he will take a slight discount. Also, I don't want any change in the apparent deal of Yunel, Hernandez, and Morton/Reyes unless that change is a reduction in the package on the Braves end.
#7
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 11:40 AM
By the way, My understanding is that if the Braves sign Tazawa, it would not be part of the "Payroll". In other words, that money is separate from the 40+ million the Braves reportedly have to spend. Can anyone confirm this?
#8
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 11:52 AM
Another quick note:
In Regards to Dempster via MLBTR and Sabernomics:
"Sabernomics says, "Are teams really thinking this guy is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter worth $13 million a season for the next four years? ... 2008 screams 'fluke!'" "
- Sorry Coach, I have to agree.
#9
Posted by Brent, November 19, 2008 11:55 AM
Andrew- the Tazawa deal would probably be classified as a signing bonus. The salary he gets would be minimum wage, but with a 5million dollar bonus or something.
And yes, i really hope we don't give up any more than that package. its too much as it is.
#10
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 12:50 PM
Will, Alex, etc.
Read the following article:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/11/18/664860/padres-gm-kevin-towers-pen
It confirms what I have been saying all along...that Towers has mis-managed this trade and that the media leaks are his fault as well.
#11
Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Andrew, November 19, 2008 1:00 PM
No one ever said that he didn't mismanage or leak information. What I've been saying is that Wren has also been playing the media a lot and speaking out publicly about this entire process so don't toss all the blame at Towers for this being played out so much in the media.
#12
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 1:08 PM
Will, Wren made 1 comment to the media other than saying that the deal was officially off...that there were "Certain Prospects that are untouchable" and that reports from the media to that point had been very wrong. While this is indeed a departure from our recent past, it was hardly "playing the media a lot and speaking out." He basically said almost nothing, and what he said seems more to be a public assurance to the unnamed prospects that they should continue business as usual...in other words he wanted hanson to focus on his changeup and not where he would be playing in 2009. I am not unhappy about that.
EVERY F-ING package the Braves did propose did get leaked to the media, as did every package that was proposed by every other team. That isn't the Braves MO, even under Wren. Silence or near silence is practiced by Wren's front office from what we have seen so far. It is notable that it is also the practice of Dayton Moore, formerly of the Braves, who just silently completed a deal for Coco Crisp. This level of media involvement and information is unprecedented in a deal involving the Braves FO, and the blame for that rests squarely on Towers' shoulders.
#13
Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Andrew, November 19, 2008 1:32 PM
Andrew, I have not and will not say that Towers isn't more at fault but the fact is that Wren made plenty of statements about the team's interest in Peavy and about the progression of the talks. We just don't know if some of those unnamed sources were part of the Atlanta FO. You know what happens when you assume.
#14
Posted by Andrew, November 19, 2008 1:39 PM
Will, fine, though I am pretty damn sure that this is a problem from SD.
By the way, interesting tidbit from MLBTR mentions that the Jays may be looking to move Halladay...from another "source".
#15
Posted by Jay, November 19, 2008 5:26 PM
My bad on Tawaza, I thought this was going to be like Dice-K or Igawa's contracts.
Another question gang, how would you guys feel about trading Escobar to the A's?
A's get:
Yunel Escobar - SS
Braves get:
Trevor Cahill - SP
Andrew Carignan - RP
#16
Posted by D'Andre Williams in reply to comment from Jay, November 19, 2008 6:06 PM
I don't like your deal for Maholm. I would take Morton over him.
#17
Posted by Alex Remington, November 20, 2008 11:30 AM
Jay, why would you want to make that deal? I don't want to deal Escobar for Peavy; why would Cahill and Carignan be preferable?
Also, keep in mind that Tazawa has never pitched a day of professional baseball in his life. Unlike nearly all other Japanese pitchers who have pitched in MLB, he isn't going to be coming from the Japanese League (NPB), he's coming from college. (Mac Suzuki did the same thing, I believe.) So he's much more of an unknown.
The one thing we do know is that Japanese pitchers who have wildness problems simply don't translate over here: Kei Igawa, Kaz Ishii, etc. And the most successful Japanese pitchers have arguably been two closers, Takashi Saito and Kaz Sasaki. Many Japanese pitchers have had initial success because of a hitch in their delivery and then gotten bombed the second, third, and fourth times around the league, like Aki Otsuka.
Ultimately, Japanese pitchers are still not totally known quantities. In some cases this leads to their being overvalued, like with Dice-K, or significantly undervalued, like with Saito. We'll need to offer Tazawa a contract we can afford, because he's either going to be far better than we paid, or far worse.
#18
Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Alex Remington, November 20, 2008 1:11 PM
I may be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure that Igawa was considered a finesse pitcher, whose biggest assett was his command.
#19
Posted by Alex Remington, November 20, 2008 3:37 PM
I think that's right. When he got over here he became a nibbler, couldn't find the strike zone, and got killed. A lot of people describe the Japanese League as being a bit like triple-A, but that's not precisely right: at the top, there are superstars who would excel at the highest level of baseball in the world, but there are fewer of them than in MLB and there are more fringy ballplayers. So the average ballplayer is worse, even if the best of the best could dominate anywhere.
Ishii and Igawa could get by with great stuff without pinpoint control because a lot of those average and below-average guys would just get themselves out. When they came here, they quickly found that the non-superstars weren't as easy to exploit, and they became a lot more nervous about their stuff. Remember, even Matsuzaka got a lot of complaints from Sox fans for being a 95-mile-an-hour nibbler his first year in the AL.
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