MVN: Most Valuable Network

#1

Posted by Rain Delay, November 9, 2008 12:30 PM

Interesting alternatives, but nothing that is worth while. I enjoyed both Furcal's and Renteria's time in Atlanta but they're not worth the cash.

1. Furcal is going to be semi-expensive regardless of his injury plagued season. His range is crap,and he's not getting any younger.

2. Renteria, see above. Love the guy, but he's range has gone to pot - worse than Furcal and he's not getting any younger.

Why trade a young, controllable - elite defender at a premium position? It doesn't make sense to me in the fact that why make yourself stronger in one place, and then weaken in another?

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#2

Posted by Andrew, November 9, 2008 7:50 PM

I read that list of shortstops that the Braves might use to replace Escobar and my heart sunk to my stomach. Rain Delay is exactly right, and Furcal and Renteria are almost the only guys in that list that I would even consider. Furcal also has 10 teams bidding for him already. Neither SS are getting any younger. Hardy is interesting, but what would it take to get him?

We won't be able to get Olson easily, not as a league rival.

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#3

Posted by Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 10, 2008 9:45 AM

I'll cut and paste this interesting little tidbit concerning Yunel Escobar.

Escobar is a Braves pitcher's best friend. When Red Sox analyst Bill James and friends evaluated major leaguers for The Fielding Bible – a publication devoted to defensive analysis – they determined that Escobar's plus-minus score of plus-21 ranked second among all shortstops last season.

Basically, the Braves are considering trading their best athlete and best defensive player.

We all know that pitching and defense go hand in hand. So, are the Braves robbing Peter to pay Paul?

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#4

Posted by Ron E., November 10, 2008 3:11 PM

It seems like the Braves are almost eager to trade Escobar. I'm not completely sure I understand the logic behind it.

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#9

Posted by Alex Remington, November 11, 2008 6:17 PM

I just posted this on an old thread, but it might be relevent here too.

The Braves' shortstop progression is as follows:

1991-1992: Rafael Belliard/Jeff Blauser
1993-1997: Jeff Blauser
1998-1999: Walt Weiss/Ozzie Guillen
2000-2005: Rafael Furcal
2006-2007: Edgar Renteria
2008: Yunel Escobar

Belliard's the only one of those who couldn't hit at all. Weiss couldn't hit much, but he got on base. Blauser actually was quite a good hitter for a shortstop, and Furcal though maddening was occasionally quite a good hitter for a shortstop. Renteria was spectacular in his two years here, and Yunel was solidly above average last year. We haven't had to deal with a terrible hitter at short for a very long time.

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#10

Posted by Will Schaffer, November 11, 2008 6:35 PM

Wow, the overreaction on this blog is quite amazing. Whether you support the trade or not, Yunel is not the type of player that turns a team from a losing team to a playoff caliber team by himself.

The Braves have a chance to add a Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Peavy. The expense of which is good but not great offense from a shortstop who plays great defense. No doubt, that is a very nice thing to have from a young shortstop but at the same time, there are guys like Renteria out there, who whether you like it or not just doesn't represent that huge of a dropoff over a 162-game season, and may in fact be able to top Yunel's offensive production.

GUYS!!! THE WORLD IS NOT ENDING!!!!

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#12

Posted by braves#1, November 11, 2008 7:03 PM

I agree with everybody not wantin to trade Escobar. Why trade a good young cheap SS when we dont have anybody to replace him? Yeah you can say Furcal or Renteria but that is not a guarantee that we get either of them. And if we dont what the heck are we gonna do then? And if we get Furcal we will end up payin a good bit of money for him. So him and Peavy put together would prolly cost us close to $20 million next season between the two of them. So if you look at it why not pay close to $20 million for a starter on the free agent market and KEEP Escobar. And either way Renteria wont be dirt cheap im sure he would want at least 5-9 million next year also. And both players defensive range is not like it use to be. We are just creating a huge hole at SS to fill a need at pitching.

Everybody says dont trade our top prospects but im thinkin why trade a guy that is producing NOW for us thats young and cheap and good. I mean if SS wasn't a CRUCIAL position in the majors then i would be like ok but SS is one of the MOST important positions on the field. I remember when the Braves made the Tex trade and everybody said how the Braves have such depth at SS thats why the Braves felt that they could trade Andrus. Well you trade Escobar the depth is GONE. Lilli looks to be a complete bust. I mean his offense would be putrid for a SS, I at one time said if we trade KJ maybe moving Lilli to second where he could probably hit decent enough for a second baseman but he would be flat out awful at SS. Sure would be nice to have Andrus right now. I mean he is not great great but he seems to be a solid young cheap SS.

This team keeps on putting a bandaid on everything and hopin this one player will help them over the top. Same thing with the Tex trade and same thing with the Kotsay trade. Given up good players. You keep doin this and the Braves turn into the Yankees EXCEPT without all the money that the Yankees have. Basically what im tryin to say is we will have to do ALOT this offseason to even be contending next season and given up a good young SS and since we dont have a young SS to replace him then its defeating the purpose. I realize that Peavy is not a one year rental but why not just go out on the free agent market and get a pitcher or two. Seems better that way because even though Peavy is cheap this year he starts maken a good bit the rest of his salary.

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#13

Posted by Will Schaffer, November 11, 2008 7:17 PM

Are we talking about the same Peavy? The guy who is averaging about 6.4 innings per start over the past three seasons?

As far as your comment about the Padres being in the playoffs, are you seriously suggesting that the Padres are just as good (minus Peavy and Yunel) as the Braves?

I'm not saying shortstops aren't valuable but as I said, whether you like the trade or not, it's just not gong to make it impossible to win. I mean five years because of a drop-off in defense from one position? That is an incredible overreaction.

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#16

Posted by Brent, November 11, 2008 8:16 PM

Andrew- while I don't like the package we are offering as a whole, I think you are greatly underestimating Peavy and overestimating Escobar. Yunel is clearly a very good defensive shortstop, and I will not try to argue that we could find one of his caliber defensively. But he has not been that great on offense. He had a very nice rookie season, when he was platooning a lot, but last year his OBS+ was only 103, which is good for a shortstop, but its not exactly all star quality. He is still young, but again, he's not that young to where we would expect his power numbers to greatly improve. And he hasn't shown any speed. I think if you take a step back and objectively look at his numbers, you'll see that he is not all that amazing offensively. Of course, he is a wonderful defensive player at the most important position, and that has to be taken into account- but he is never going to win an MVP award.

Peavy, on the other hand, hsa already won a cy Young award and he is only 27. he figures to be in the running for the award each year he is under contract with us, providing he doesn't get hurt. Peavy is only two years older than Yunel, and not only does he have that cy young award, he has even already finished in the top 10 in an mvp race.

There are some red flags there for sure. Peavy has been hurt a couple of times, but what pitcher hasn't? Escobar has had nagging injuries throughout his first two seasons as well. I'm not saying that I like all that we are giving up here, but I do completely agree with Will that Escobar is much more replaceable than a player like Peavy- especially escobar offensively.

Will this make us a world series team next year? I highly doubt it. But how deadly could our 2010 starting 5 be with Peavy, Hudson, jurrjens and Hanson in there? That is a World Series rotation.

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#17

Posted by greenman, November 11, 2008 9:05 PM

Fans often tend to overvalue their own team's players and I think it's happening here. Will's right on this one... braves fans are overreacting. Every player has a price.

As for "raping our farm system again", the jury's still out on that one. Again, you're just overvaluing your team's prospects. Plus, the braves still have one of the best farm systems in baseball, so it wasn't "raped".

You need to remember that farm systems are not only good for retooling one's own team, but also as trading chips, and it's not in the best interest of one's team for the management to act with a closed mind.

I have a feeling that many braves fans here wouldn't approve of a straight-up Yunel for Peavy trade, which is flat out absurd.

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#19

Posted by Alex Remington, November 11, 2008 9:30 PM

I'd really rather not trade Yunel for Peavy straight up -- that's why I called Yunel "the one guy who should really be untouchable." Hanson for Yunel, I'd bite my lip, but I'd go along with it. As many have pointed out, Peavy is basically the absolute best-case scenario for Hanson, and so the trade becomes essentially a salary dump. But you just can't find shortstops who can hit and field as well as Yunel, who are as young as he is, who are as cheap as he is, who will be team-controlled for as long as he is. It is among the hardest things to do in baseball.

Saying that Edgar Renteria can provide approximate production is simply silly. Renteria is getting older and aging very poorly in the field, and showing his age at bat as well. He is defensively well below average, while Yunel is among the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Offensively, since Yunel is at an age where he should be improving and Edgar is at an age where he should be getting worse, I'd say they're at least a wash with a great likelihood that Edgar will be a worse hitter next year than Yunel.

Remember, Renteria's career OPS+ is 96. Yunel's is 109.

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#20

Posted by Brent, November 11, 2008 9:41 PM

Alex, I agree with you to an extent, but I think Yunel's numbers from this year are more relevant than his career numbers, since he was mostly platooning his rookie year (much easier for a righty to hit for power against lefties). Yunel is a unique talent, particularly on defense, but I just don't think he is as good as you are making him out to be. Peavy is a very unique talent, who is only two years older than Yunel, and already significantly more productive.

I really really like Yunel, and wish there were a way to make this trade without him (as does Peavy), but I think Peavy is a rare superstar, at the beginning of his prime. Of course, once you add Gorkys, Jojo and another pitcher I no longer like the trade.

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#21

Posted by Alex Remington, November 11, 2008 9:50 PM

Brent, that's fine. His OPS this year was still higher than Edgar Renteria's career numbers. Moreover, Yunel's power this year was sapped by a shoulder injury -- this is my opinion, I know Tom disagrees -- his OBP was terrific, and he had the 9th-best OPS among starting shortstops in the game. Assume a normal growth curve, and that becomes a level just below elite.

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#22

Posted by Brent, November 11, 2008 9:54 PM

When it comes to Edgar Renteria you have no argument from me. I think we lose 3 games on defense alone if we switch from Yunel to Edgar, not to mention the offensive runs we would probably lose. But there are better options than him, I would hope. I think adding Jake Peavy probable gives us 7 or 8 wins over a the guy he bumps out (Reyes, Morton, etc), and 7 or 8 wins a year for the next 5 years is huge. that is simplified of course, because we are not taking salary into account. But I think its clear that Peavy is a more valuable player than Yunel, even at his salary.

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#25

Posted by Alex Remington, November 12, 2008 9:04 AM

Will: "There are guys like Renteria out there, who whether you like it or not just doesn't represent that huge of a dropoff over a 162-game season, and may in fact be able to top Yunel's offensive production."

My paraphrase: "Edgar Renteria can provide approximate production."

You said he won't be a huge dropoff and may even be a better hitter than Yunel. That's what approximate means. And I'm disputing that: Edgar most likely will represent a massive dropoff from Yunel, both offensively and defensively.

Will, why would you use a stat that you say you think is worthless?

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#26

Posted by Will Schaffer, November 12, 2008 10:03 AM

Because I'm playing devil's advocate. Many of you have brought this stat up and called me crazy for saying that they are worthless and are now completely ignoring them. I still think Yunel is much better but it's pretty ridiculous to pick and choose stats whenever they suit you.

As far as your paraphrase, its wrong. What I said is that he provides a significant dropoff in defense but is not terrible and MAY be able to provide a slight increase in offensive production.

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#27

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 10:19 AM

Greenman, Brent, and all of the others who think I am crazy and over-reacting.

Lets just walk through our current Braves lineup:

1b: Kotchman, hasn't proven anything on offense yet. I think/hope that he will become a better than average player.

2b: KJ, an above average hitter who doesn't have a great glove. Kinda streaky...

SS: Yunel- .366 OBP from a SS with a great glove. Nuf Said.

3b: Chipper, who of course is great...but he only plays 120 games per year and is over 35...

LF: ?

CF: Blanco? Anderson? Schafer?

RF: Frenchy...and we have beat that dead horse already.

C: McCann, Great player who isn't a wiz defensively, but makes up for it big on offense. He needs a day off fromt time to time as well....

All in all, the Braves are ALREADY playing with a bunch of question marks. The offense SUCKED ROYALLY least year (for those who forgot). It is currently relying on a 35 year old 3b and a C for the vast majority of the offensive production. Does anybody else see where Yunel becomes important for the future of the team? Where are the Braves supposed to replace him for the next 5 years? Really, if somebody can explain to me how trading Yunel isn't a bad idea with an argument that makes sense considering the Braves current state of shittiness, I am open to it.

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#29

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 10:55 AM

Will, are you sure about that Francoeur prediction? I am not convinced that he will get that discipline back, and though is BABIP was relatively low, he still is barely batting his body weight...

Even if we add Manny F-ing Ramirez (and no, I would never suggest that we should), the Braves offense looks anemic (though it would look a lot better). Assuming Wren gets somebody like a Burrell or a Dunn, the BRaves are still not out of it. Lets face it, the Braves offense wasn't even that good with Tex, so 1 bat isn't going to change the outlook all that much.

I think I did this before, but I think it is worth repeating: Just look at the rest of the NL East...IE our key rivals the Mets and Phillies. They have core young offensive players. For the Braves, Yunel is one of those players. He shouldn't be traded.

Finally, the Braves have about $45 million to spend (I believe you wrote an article about that...I don't want to put words in your mouth though). This also just happens to be the most stacked FA starter market that we have seen in years. The Braves can buy a lot of players, and even if the Braves do make a trade or two, maybe the Braves should target a pitcher who won't cost a fantastic SS...Just saying...

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#30

Posted by Brent, November 12, 2008 11:14 AM

Andrew- I agree completely about our offense. If you read my posts I have said several times that it won't be any better next year, and that is a huge problem. But unlike you, I don't think Yunel Escobar is that big for us on offense. He has a 103 OPS+ last year in his first season hitting against lefties and righties, and while I think it will go up, I also think his offense is mostly replaceable.

Now, I don't agree with this trade we have offered. I think we're giving up too much. But that doesn't mean I'm going to freak out and panic about the loss of Yunel Escobar. As Will just said, he is going to be 26 this year (or 34), which is older than almost everyone in our starting lineup, so lets stop pretending he is some phenom kid who's going to play in 10 straight All Star games.

I think the Braves are really good at evaluating their own talent, much better than our peers. When was the last time the Braves traded someone that we really regretted? Maybe you could say the Wainwright trade, but even there we got good value in return and its now 5 years down the line and he has yet to do anything that special. Instead, I think back on guys like Dan Meyer, Andy Marte, that Aussi we traded for Russ Ortiz, Salty (ok, Maybe he will develop, but it sure doesn't look like it now). And I'll admit we may end up regretting the loss of Perez and Andrus in the Tex trade, but time will have to tell. The point is, the Braves don't have any Scott Kazmir's out there, and I don't think Escobar will be one either. He is a very nice player, someone that you want to have in your lineup everyday, but lets not blow it out of proportion.

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#31

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 11:22 AM

I would argue that Hanson MAY BE the Braves' Kazmir...

No, I am not saying that Yunel is the greatest offensive player...hell, he is probably the 4th best offensive ss in the NL East (Hanram, Rollins, and Reyes) but he is pretty damn good...and furthermore REALLY hard to replace.

Rosenthal confirmed that the Braves will be replacing Yunel with Lillibridge BTW. I know Lilli can do the defense...but the offensive dropoff will be pretty significant.

And no, we haven't made any regrettable trades lately (though I kind of regret the trade that sent Willy Aybar to the Rays for Jeff Ridgeway, I don't REALLY regret that one). However, Wren has only had 1 year. This year is pretty critical and he needs to make smart choices. You and I both agree this isn't one of them.

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#32

Posted by greenman, November 12, 2008 11:33 AM

Remember that Peavy isn't just a short term solution. If I remember correctly, he has four years on his contract left. Plus, I'd much rather have Peavy and Renteria than Yunel and whomever Peavy replaces (JoJo?).

Let's not forget how good Renteria was for the Braves. As for his defense, it's hard to say without watching most of his games. I'm not sold on plus/minus as a predictive stat for future performance. It seems to fluctuate for many players from year to year.

As for the current offer, I'd like to see a Yunel, Gorkys, and JoJo trade for Peavy. I'd rather not see a Yunel, Schafer, and Morton deal though. Morton is more talented than JoJo, and Schafer is closer to helping the braves now.

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#33

Posted by Brent, November 12, 2008 12:15 PM

Andrew- we are not trading Hanson, so no need to worry about him being a Kazmir. Again, the Braves are good at knowing who to give up when they have to give up someone. Imagine if we had been unwilling to trade Marte, just because he was highly regarded. Then we would not have Jurrjens or Gorkys right now.

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#34

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 1:00 PM

Brent, no argument there. I am just saying that Escobar is not an easy player to replace, and is in fact impossible to replace in the current market. That is a fact.

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#36

Posted by Brent, November 12, 2008 1:34 PM

Andrew, I agree. Will, Frenchy is not good. He wasn't good his first 2.5 seasons, and wasn't good last year.

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#41

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 2:56 PM

Alex, I would agree if the Braves could afford to find another RF. It doesn't seem to be in their plans right now. I am willing to accept him as a drain on the offense for another year or two until Heyward arrives simply for lack of a solution that won't cost money and/or prospects. That is unless Brandon Jones ups the ante...then all bets are off with Frenchy.

I will say that I think that the Braves should at least make Frenchy audition for the job. I would consider that fair warning. And if he loses the job, don't give him this AA option which is BS. Send him to AAA to completely re-work his swing. Or just make him a pitcher, as I only half-jokingly suggested before.

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#43

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 3:31 PM

By the way, I am really surprised the Peavy deal wasn't completed today. I know that last I heard, Towers had asked for Flowers instead of Gorkys (Rosenthal this morning). I wonder if that isn't the straw that broke the camel's back and if Frank Wren got fed up and told Towers where to shove it...after all of the BS that the Braves have gone through for this deal, I wouldn't blame him.

I am also really surprised because the Braves FO usually is pretty tight lipped about negotiations. This deal seems to have been far more public than most deals the Braves are involved in. I wonder how this will affect future negotiations because I have a feeling that the Braves FO will be pissed off at SD if they are in fact leaking all of this information.

If the deal isn't done today, I fully expect the deal to be made in the next 24 hours. I did expect the deal to be done by now though...

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#44

Posted by Will Schaffer, November 12, 2008 3:40 PM

Remeber that this is not the same front office. We've already seen Frank Wren come out and publicly discuss these negotiations and Schuerholz would NEVER have done that.

As far as the Braves moving on, it seems like from all reports that the Braves and Cubs have drawn their lines in the sand but there is still time before free agency kicks off. My guess is that Towers or the Cubs will break down but I can't see Wren moving from Yunel, Gorkys, and Reyes/Morton

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#45

Posted by Andrew, November 12, 2008 3:51 PM

Will, that is true, however Wren didn't really say much beyond that the reports of who was on the table were completely false and that there are untouchable prospects. The fact that Heyward and Hanson are on that list seems to be pure deduction from O'Brien rather than their being named specifically. However, reporters seem to have a pretty unprecedented level of inside information, and that has never been the Braves MO. I really don't see much indication that this FO has changed dramatically from Schuerholz with the exception of that one interview where nothing was really said that couldn't have been deduced logically anyway.

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#51

Posted by lunatic96, November 12, 2008 10:17 PM

Frenchy wasn't even that good in '07, he was just incredibly luck with risp and that inflated his stats.

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#54

Posted by CORY, November 13, 2008 8:21 AM

Geesh I think you two would argue at a grocery store, paper or plastic?? ...... Anyway I'm with Will on this, Frenchy will be much better than last year. I believe he was just trying too hard to impress bulking up to get the homers for the big contract. He need to head over to McCann's and re-learn hitting with him and his dad at their new hitting complex. He has saved many runs with his cannon arm, gunning them down at the plate. Plus Peavy, Renteria, and Frenchy is a much better combo than Jo-Jo, Yunel, and "anybody than Frenchy" ....

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#55

Posted by Alex Remington, November 13, 2008 8:56 AM

Cory, "re-learn hitting"? Show me any time other than July-August 2005, in the majors or minors, when he showed he knew hitting.

I know you're going to bring up 2007, so, again: his BABIP was abnormally high, which suggests that he got lucky and his numbers were better than his true performance. Also, he wasn't actually good that year, he was just much better than 2006 and had a good performance relative to his age. He was, as Will and I have previously said, perfectly average. Show me a time other than July/August 2005 when he was actually good.

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