The Free Agent I Want: Derek Lowe

Chop-n-Change

November 16, 2008

The Free Agent I Want: Derek Lowe

29 Comments

Recommended (0) | Share

Over the past few months, I've mentioned a number of times the one free agent I really want the Braves to sign: Derek Lowe. He's a bit of an odd object of desire, a 35-year-old sinkerballer with a pretty sizable home/road split, a nice perk of pitching in Dodger Stadium, commonly known as one of the better pitcher's parks in all of baseball. I've explained why I don't want the number one free agent pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, because of health concerns over the duration of his contract. I think Derek Lowe is the best pitcher on the market, and here's why.

Perhaps his most extraordinary quality is his consistency: since he became a Dodger he's been very steady in innings pitched, success, and health. His ERA+ the past four years: 114, 124, 118, 131. Innings: 222, 218, 199 1/3, 211. Games started: 35, 34, 32, 34. In other words, he's the anti-A.J. Burnett: he gives you a steady number of innings, and while he doesn't have ace-level stuff, he's a #2 who is very reliable in his results. Considering that Ben Sheets and Burnett are known to be fragile, and that Ryan Dempster and Oliver Perez's careers have featured more mediocre or bad years than good ones, Lowe's consistency and health are strong points in his favor.

Moreover, Dodger Stadium does not always play like a pitcher's park. According to ESPN.com's park factors, in two out of the last four years, 2006 and 2007, it was actually a modest hitter's park, and Lowe posted good home numbers there anyway. (In 2005 and 2008 it was a pretty extreme pitcher's park, like you'd expect.) That suggests, at least, that he might succeed at Turner Field, itself no bandbox.

Similarly, while the tale that sinkerballers pitch better on short rest appears to be a myth, they are supposed to age well. (Remember that year Kevin Brown had in 2003?) In fact, Lowe has been improving his components: he actually decreased his walk and homer rates substantially this year, while keeping his strikeout rate pretty constant.

2008 may have been Lowe's career year, not coincidentally his walk year, and it may be unreasonable to assume that he'll repeat it. (He posted a stunning 2.30 ERA at home.) But even if his homers and walks bounce up a tick, and his strikeouts slip slightly, he'll still be a solid pitcher if healthy. In fact, he was strongest down the stretch: in August and September, he was 6-2 in 11 starts with a 2.27 ERA and 42 K against only 11 BB in 67 1/3 innings. Surprisingly, his GB% actually slipped from 65% to 60% last year, which could be a bad sign of things to come. But he's still got wiggle room, especially if he can maintain the drop in his walk and HR-rates, and as long as it stays above 60% he'll have plenty of success.

The age of our rotation last year, and its myriad attendant injuries, may be a reason many fans won't want to add another pitcher in his mid-30s. But there's a difference: John Smoltz has battled arm problems his entire career, Mike Hampton has been a walking injury for years, and Tom Glavine appeared done at the end of 2007. They were oldsters who were showing their age. Derek Lowe is still pitching like a man who has years ahead of him. Keith Law has him at #5 on his free agent rankings, just below A.J. Burnett, and writes: "At 36, Lowe probably is headed for a decline, but he has shown no sign of it to date and probably has a good two -- or even three -- seasons left at something close to his level of 2006-2008." (Lowe will turn 36 on June 1.)

He's not worth a 5-year deal, but he likely won't get one. More likely, offers will be in the 4/$50 - 4/$60 range. It may be, as Law suggests, that the last year of that contract will be ugly. Until then, though, he's the one pitcher on the free agent list who is most likely to deliver what he'll be paid to do. We saw last year what injuries can do to decimate an otherwise promising roster, and how much it pays to invest in players who have proven to be good at staying healthy. Lowe's the right place to start.

Tags: Atlanta Braves, derek lowe

Discussion

29 Comments on "The Free Agent I Want: Derek Lowe"

Posted by ink-stained scribe, November 16, 2008 10:37 PM

Alex,

I like Lowe, too. One thing that's easy to forget -- he spent a few years in the bullpen. So he hasn't logged as many innings as other starters his age. He seems to keep himself in good shape, so you might think of him as a 36-year-old starter with a 33-year-old's arm.

Posted by EJRuiz, November 16, 2008 11:21 PM

My hopes:

1) Sign Junichi Tawaza
2) Sign either Ben Sheets or A.J. Burnett (in that order of preference)
3) Sign either Ryan Dempster or Derek Lowe (in that order of preference)
4) Trade for either Ryan Ludwick or Rick Ankiel (for Prado, Morton/Reyes and a "touchable" prospect or two); that that doesn't work, sign Bobby Abreu or Juan Rivera (in that order of preference)
5) Bring back Hampton, Smoltz, Ohman and maybe Glavine, Norton and some of those minor league free agents with ST invites.

The only guy that I'd considering offering a deal over three years in length is Burnett and no one should get considerably more than $15M/year out of the bunch. I don't mind being out bid and standing pat, because then we can simply focus on building towards 2011 and locking up the worthy young building blocks we already have in place.

Posted by Alex Remington, November 16, 2008 11:21 PM

Yes, that's a great point. This could be one thing in Dempster's favor, but I think that's outweighed by having been forced to the bullpen by being a terrible starter and being forced to the rotation by being a terrible closer.

Posted by Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 17, 2008 3:05 AM

I disagree. but not by much. Derek Lowe is an Ace quality pitcher, no question.

My preference is Ryan Dempster, but only because he is four years younger and has 500 fewer innings of wear and tear. Alex mentioned Derek Lowe's home record in 2008. Well, it pales in comparison to what Dempster accomplished at Wrigley Field in 2008, which will never be called a pitchers park.

Dempster went 14-3 with an ERA of 2.86 at Wrigley. Better yet, he gave up just 6 HR's in 129 innings of work at home while racking up 21 quality starts for the season. In fact, Dempster had just one bad start all season long. However, I wouldn't call Dempster an Ace, he's more of a two starter.

As far as being labeled a terrible closer, he nailed down 85 saves during the last three years he closed (2005-2007). I'll take that any day of the week and twice on Sunday. That certainly isn't Smoltz or Rivera caliber, but it's pretty good.

Dempster doesn't have anything close to the extended track record as a starter that Derek Lowe has. But that's only because he spent the previous four seasons before 2008 in the bullpen after recovering from T.J. surgery.

And last but not least, it comes down to pecking order. The Yankees or Red Sox will probably sign Lowe, leaving the Cubs, Braves and everybody else in a bidding war for the services of Ryan Dempster.

For me, it comes down to a matter of faith. I believe that Dempster had his best career season to date in 2008 and is capable of doing it again. The flip side is, if Dempster want's more than three years guaranteed with the fourth year as an option season, he can go take a flying leap. I have heard five years and 75 million, which is really too much in this financial market.

Posted by EJRuiz, November 17, 2008 5:00 AM

Hey Coach, long time no see; hope everything is well with you and yours. I'm with you in that I prefer Dempster to Lowe. I understand the skepicism aimed at Ryan, but I believe he's good and I'd want him on my team. Lowe has been decent on the road for the Dodgers, but certainly no ace. I view them both as #2 starters and I'd be willing to go three guaranteed years with either of them, but no longer. I'd also struggle spending more than $15M/year for them. I'll never rely on counting and/or dependent stats (saves, records, etc.) like you do, but I'm glad we came to similar conclussions regardless.

Posted by Alex Remington, November 17, 2008 8:52 AM

Coach, he also blew 14 saves over that period and had an ERA near 5.00 in 2006 in 2007. If the Cubs thought he was doing a good job, they wouldn't have taken him out of the bullpen.

Posted by Ron E., November 17, 2008 9:15 AM

Lowe would be good, but what reason is there to think any high end free agent pitcher would pick Atlanta? Why would Lowe come to a reloading Atlanta team instead of taking a comparable or more likely better offer from Boston, New York (either), Chicago, Los Angeles (either) or any number of other teams that already are contenders?

Posted by OLD MEN DREAM DREAMS, November 17, 2008 9:53 AM

Given my druthers, I'd druther sign Lowe for four years and Ben Sheets to three with a series of vesting options. Then I'd trade Francouer, Morton, Reyes and a touchable prospect for Greinke, swap a Prado package for Ludwick to play right, and trade Soriano to Chicago for Dye or to Detroit for Maggs.

Young men have visions. Old men dream dreams.

Good article, AAR.

Posted by Alex Remington, November 17, 2008 10:04 AM

Thanks, OMDD. I hope you can see your dream come to pass, but I admit I'm not too hopeful.

#10

Posted by Andrew, November 17, 2008 10:26 AM

OMDD, I am pretty sure that Greinke will be untouchable or close to. Not that I wouldn't love to see him on the Braves.

I don't like Ben Sheets. He has an elbow injury right now, and I don't trust his arm at all...even less so than Burnett's right now. I would rather Burnett whom is more talented AND isn't already injured.

I am pretty sure that Dempster had a fluke great year, but I would happily eat crow if the Braves sign him and he performs. I am pretty sure Alex is right though, he wasn't a great reliever, nor a great starter before this year. All of a sudden he is an ace or #2 at the age of 31? I just don't buy it, it just screams fluke to me.

I also don't want any part of what the Cardinals are selling. They are asking WAY too much for Ludwick (last I checked, KJ AND a high end pitching prospect). Screw that. Ludwick is another career year at 30 guy who I don't trust to repeat his performance. They will undoubtedly ask the same for Ankiel. Dye and Mags seem like reasonable targets because their GM's aren't going to make ridiculous demands. I also don't think the Braves are going to get more than 1 outfielder. Not that I would mind a replacement for Francoeur...but I don't think the FO or Bobby Cox will do that.

That said, the Braves have to move quickly to get some of these guys signed. There is a lot of pitching out there, but even more demand for that pitching.

#11

Posted by Andrew, November 17, 2008 1:14 PM

However, as an option for RF that may be cheap and easily obtained...Rocco Baldelli. I was a fan a couple of years ago when it looked like he would be a star. I think that if the Braves can trade for a good LF, signing Baldelli cheap would be a perfect move to give Frenchy competition in RF.

#12

Posted by Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 17, 2008 1:15 PM

Kerry Wood blew six saves this past season, I guess that must be why the Cubs are letting him go, right?

WRONG. It's all about contract and money. Dempster was moved out of the bullpen because Kerry Wood agreed to be the Cubs closer in 2007. Ryan Dempster's 2008 year was no fluke, people forget that he went 14-10 in 2000 and 15-12 in 2001.

#13

Posted by Andrew, November 17, 2008 1:28 PM

Coach,

In 2000 he also allowed 30 HR. That really caught up with him in 2001 as he posted a 4.94 ERA. Win/Loss record doesn't tell the whole story, and is in fact one of the most useless pitching stats in the game.

Either way, a couple of good years as a starter during his prime are not enough to impress me. Otherwise I would be drooling over Oliver Perez. Demspter is now 31 years old. He is past his prime but just posted a career year. I don't care who the pitcher is, that screams fluke very loudly. We won't know till next season whether it is a fluke or not, I am just saying that you can't deny that there is a VERY strong possibility that it is.

#14

Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Andrew, November 17, 2008 1:44 PM

Baldelli has a nice little asterisk next to his name. Because of his disease, he suffers through rather long bouts of fatigue, which makes him effective for only periods at a time. He just can't be a full-time starter.

#15

Posted by Andrew in reply to comment from Will Schaffer, November 17, 2008 1:57 PM

That actually might be good. It will give Frenchy time to figure things out. If he is sharing duties with Baldelli, he can't be a permanent drain if he continues to struggle. If Frenchy starts to figure things out (Big IF), Baldelli can serve as a great 4th OF with pop and speed off the bench.

#16

Posted by Andrew, November 17, 2008 2:05 PM

Baldelli can also fill in at CF from time to time if it takes a while for Schafer to get acclimated, another plus in his favor.

That way the Braves can use one of Blanco/Anderson to send to the ChiSox in a package for Dye. The ChiSox are known to be looking for speed, and either of them will put up the same or better production as Willy Taveras whome they are said to be targeting. I bet they would be thrilled to have either of them.

#17

Posted by Alex Remington, November 17, 2008 2:30 PM

I'd be very happy to take a look at Dye. Baldelli I'm not keen on, unless he could be had for peanuts. As Will points out, he will never be fully healthy.

Coach, the year that Ryan Dempster won 15 games, he put up an ERA of 4.94. The next year, it was 5.38. The next year, it was 6.54. The next year, he was in the bullpen. He was a terrible starter.

#18

Posted by Andrew in reply to comment from Alex Remington, November 17, 2008 3:09 PM

Alex,
That is the point. Baldelli likely can be had for peanuts. The Rays just paid a 4 million dollar buyout on a 6 million dollar 09 option. I am sure he can be had for a million or less.

#19

Posted by Alex Remington in reply to comment from Andrew, November 17, 2008 3:43 PM

Well, a million or less is a whole nother story. If we can pay Baldelli the kind of money we paid Tanyon Sturtze not to pitch, then I'm all for it.

#20

Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Andrew, November 17, 2008 3:44 PM

Here's the problem with it. Even if he can be had for next to nothing, his condition means that we're pretty much riding with a 24-man roster for large chunks of time. If Frank Wren can find a way around that, more power to him.

#21

Posted by Alex Remington, November 17, 2008 4:49 PM

I'd imagine that judicious use of the DL -- as Rocco's teams have always had to do -- would go a long way. Whatever he does, he'd be a lot more useful to the team than Corky Miller was last year.

#22

Posted by Andrew in reply to comment from Alex Remington, November 17, 2008 7:06 PM

Look, all I am saying is that both of you agree that there currently is no good option other than Francoeur in RF. The Braves have money, but not that much money. A trade would deplete the farm system, and the Braves will likely have to make another trade as is. Baldelli is a high-upside cheap option to at least show Frenchy that his performance isn't acceptable, and he will have to work to prove that he can do the job.

#23

Posted by Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 18, 2008 5:04 AM

Or the Braves could do something that actually makes sense. Like spending some of the estimated 40 to 50 million on a cheap free agent like Juan Rivera.

Better yet, They could go outside the box and trade for the Rangers Nelson Cruz. All he did was bang 44 HR's with 125 RBI while hitting .337, did I mention the good glove, great arm and outstanding defense?

There are always the Cliff Lee's and Ryan Ludwick's waiting to be had if an organization has the moxy and guts to roll the dice.

#24

Posted by Alex Remington, November 18, 2008 8:36 AM

Coach, Cliff Lee just won the Cy Young. How cheap do you think he'll be?

#25

Posted by Andrew in reply to comment from Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 18, 2008 10:05 AM

Fine, Juan Rivera, I just think Baldelli will be cheaper and will allow Frenchy time at the plate to figure things out. Baldelli can also play all 3 OF positions, including CF...

The Cards asking price for Ludwick, who is over 30 by the way, is KJ PLUS a young pitcher. I wouldn't even do Ludwick for KJ straight up. That isn't rolling the dice coach, moves like that are organizational suicide.

Nelson Cruz hit 7 HR (where did you get 44 from?) with the Rangers this year in limited time. Are you talking about his time in the minors? Either way, if he is that good, the Rangers will want pitching. Guess what the Braves don't have enough of?

#26

Posted by Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 18, 2008 10:12 AM

Everybody loves a smartelic.

One year ago today, both Cliff Lee and Ryan Ludwick could have been had for a bag of balls. As of right now, Lee is untouchable and Ludwick will be expensive.

There are players, right now, who are dirt cheap and are capable of realizing the same kind of seasons that we saw from Lee and Ludwick.

As for Derek Lowe. He will pitch in the majors next year, but it won't be for Atlanta. Ryan Dempster is just as doubtful.

I have to admit it, but the Braves are in dire straights right now. The Peavy deal just went belly up and Frank Wren has nothing to show for all his hard work.

#27

Posted by Andrew in reply to comment from Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 18, 2008 10:59 AM

I can agree with you on that Coach, and I have repeatedly vented my frustrations about that debacle of a trade. I also see a lot of big names getting close to signing...and the Braves haven't offered a contract to anybody but Will Ohman and Tazawa yet. If Frank Wren doesn't pull his pen out of his ass and start making some moves soon, there will be nothing left and the Braves will be sitting on a bundle of cash with NOBODY to spend it on. The Yankees apperently have already offered Burnett a deal woth $16 million per over 4 years. Dempster is said to be close to re-signing with the Cubs.

The problem is finding deals like Ludwick and Lee. They aren't easy to find. I don't mind the Juan Rivera idea at all, but that isn't the big deal that the Braves should be looking at now (Nor is signing Baldelli like I mentioned). That free agent pitching class is starting to thin out really quick...

#28

Posted by Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 18, 2008 6:12 PM

Nelson Cruz accumulated his numbers between AAA and Texas, I just added them together.

Ludwick is for real. I'm not gonna go into the tiny little details, just trust me, I know these things.

Beggars can't be choosers. The Braves went all in on Jake Peavy and so far, the cards have not been kind. Basically, it's Peavy or bust.

Part of the problem is, Yunel EScobar is in Bobby's doghouse and Kevin Towers is aware of the situation. This is not making Frank Wren's job any easier.

#29

Posted by Will Schaffer in reply to comment from Coach (Skip and Pete will be missed), November 18, 2008 8:07 PM

Escobar's standing with Cox doesn't really give Towers any more leverage. While the market for Peavy is very small, the market for Yunel is huge.

MVN: Most Valuable Network

Chop-n-Change

The Free Agent I Want: Derek Lowe

Discussion

Leave a comment