Tonight, having finished my profiles of the Braves' pitchers, I'm going to take a brief look at the 2010 payroll, since our offseason discussions are going to require a monetary framework.
To start, the payroll, which I'll break down into three categories:
Guaranteed commitments: Derek Lowe ($15M), Chipper Jones ($13M), Javier Vazquez ($11.5M), Tim Hudson ($9M projected), Kenshin Kawakami ($6.667M), Brian McCann ($5.5M), Nate McLouth ($4.5M), Omar Infante ($2.225M), David Ross ($1.6M)
Total: nine players, $68.992M
These guys have guaranteed contracts. Not much to say about them.
Arbitration: Matt Diaz ($3.75M), Peter Moylan ($1.25M)
Total: two players, $5M
I think only Diaz and Moylan are guaranteed to get arbitration offers right now. Ryan Church and Kelly Johnson are eligible but may be non-tendered or traded, and Boone Logan might be eligible depending on how many days of service time he accumulated in 2009 (and he likely would not get an offer if eligible anyway). I've been conservative on my estimates, so if those numbers seem high, it's because they probably are. Better to budget more and find you have savings later.
Minimum salary players: Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Eric O'Flaherty
Total: six players, $2.4M
Again, these are the only $400,000 players that I think are guaranteed to be on the Opening Day Roster.
Grand total: 17 players, $76.5M
So that leaves probably $20 million for Frank Wren to spend this winter, and if he can offload perhaps $11 million either by moving Javier Vazquez or part of Derek Lowe's contract, he'll have a fairly hefty $31 million sum to spend. This analysis leaves the Braves with eight unfilled roster spots, and those fall as follows: two infielders (a starting first baseman, and a bench IF), three outfielders (two starters and a fifth OF), and four relief pitchers. Doubtless some of those slots will be filled internally with minimum-salary players, but it's unclear exactly who those players will be. Discuss away, and we'll be referring back to this post a lot as we construct our offseason plans and analysis.
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This is a really helpful breakdown. I think we’ll have a much better sense of the value of money after the World Series is over. The Phillies, for example, are on a financial tightrope: their GM has said that their financial commitments would have crippled them already if they hadn’t won the World Series last year and gotten all the monetary rewards that a Championship brings.
Obviously, we need to turn one of our pitchers into either money or players to fill the roster gaps. I realize that this view may be a bit overcategorical, but I’m more concerned that whomever we trade gets traded for full value, than that certain players get designated as off-limits: if Javier Vazquez can bring back a ton of value and Kawakami and Lowe won’t back nothing, I’d rather make that deal for the overall good of the 25-man roster.
I really think that Diaz will start at one of the OF corners, with either Heywar, Schafer, or a FA signing manning the third OF spot. Since we don’t appear to have a good utility infield prospect, I’d expect to see a veteran signed for this role (e.g., Counsell). I have to agree with Alex that we would be selling low on KK or Lowe–I’d rather see KK pitch in relief and possibly deal him at the Deadline if he pitches well.
The other problem that we have is, if we let both Soriano and Gonzalez walk, we would lack a “proven” bullpen ace. Moylan and Medlen are both good, but do either of them have the pure stuff for this role? And outside of Kimbrel (who has control issues, to say the least), there aren’t any dominant relievers in the high minors to compliment these two. Therefore, I’d like to see the cheaper of Soriano or Gonzalez get signed to a 2 year deal. I don’t think 2 years/$5-6 mil per is unreasonable to give to a good reliever. Does anyone think the Gonzo would sign for that?
Kenshin Kawakami actually made 7.667 million this season and I suspect Tim Hudson’s three year extension will be back loaded something like this: 2010 – 7 Mil, 2011 – 9 Mil and 2012 11 Mil.
Wren spent 47 million in contracts for Lowe, Chipper, Vazquez and Kawakami last year. Given the fact that he will probably have around 30 million and needs to rebuild the bullpen, outfield and find a first baseman while attempting to improve upon the defense and offense…….well, the task is beyond his pay grade if you ask me.
Coach, you’re right about Kawakami’s 2009 salary, but his contract (per Cot’s Contracts) is actually very slightly front-loaded. I should cite Cot’s as my source for all these figures. You could very well be right about the back-loading of Hudson’s extension, but like I said I prefer to be conservative with my estimates. Until we see details, I’m sticking with a straight $9 million per year guess.
It’s a bit of a fallacy to say that Wren spent $47 million on those contracts last year, since he really didn’t spend that much in “new” money. Remember that Chipper was due $11 million one way or another since his 2009 option had vested, so that’s really just a $2 million expense. So he really spent closer to $36 million, and he’s likely to have $31-32 million to work with this winter. Not too much difference there.
And there’s really no way to say that his task this winter is any more onerous than it was last winter: working to improve an offense isn’t a whole lot more difficult than entirely rebuilding a rotation, more or less from scratch. It’s not difficult to envision spending about $8-10 million for a first baseman, another $8-10 million for an outfielder, even toss in $8-10 million for a closer (and that’s a lot for a closer), and you’ve still got between $2 million and another $8 million to spend. That gives you plenty of space to trade some spare parts for perhaps an arb-eligible setup guy. The other starting OF job goes to either Diaz or Heyward, and suddenly all you need is a couple minimum-salary bench guys and middle relievers to fill out the roster. And that doesn’t even address the possibility of getting a guy like Nelson Cruz, who only costs $400,000, and things suddenly get a lot more flexible.
I still have yet to see any evidence from you regarding the things Wren could have/should have done last winter that would have made the team so much better off, and until I do, I’m going to continue to ignore your incessant “Wren doesn’t know what he’s doing” remarks.