Taken by Keith Allison
With the pitcher profiles finishes, here's the whole lot of them, grouped loosely by my own seven "categories". Note that Jorge Campillo and Buddy Carlyle have been removed since they were designated for assignment:
Rotation: Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Javier Vazquez
Hanson is certainly untouchable, and I'm beginning to be more and more convinced that Jurrjens is too. Hudson isn't going to be traded after signing his extension. I can't see Kawakami bringing back any kind of return really, and his contract really is a bargain (plus there's the whole Japan PR issue that I think the Braves are concerned about). And I can't see the Braves getting better by trading Vazquez, as I wrote. So there's your 2010 rotation.
Bullpen: Kris Medlen, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty
I want to see Medlen get to try his hand at being a starter someday, but for now he's going to be a very solid reliever. Moylan and O'Flaherty were excellent in 2009, and they should be a solid tandem again in 2010.
Trying out for a 'pen role: James Parr, Luis Valdez
I like both these guys as potential bullpen pieces, but neither has enough of a body of work to merit an automatic bid. They'll get a long look next spring, with both potentially making the team on Opening Day.
Riding the bus back and forth from Gwinnett: Manny Acosta, Boone Logan
I don't view either of these guys as having as much potential as Parr or Valdez, since these guys both do have major-league track records, and those track records aren't great. I feel like we have enough info on them to hope that they aren't integral parts of the 2010 bullpen, but they will be useful injury fill-ins. Still, they're young enough to break through and could easily prove to be valuable relief arms.
Fearing for their roster lives: Stephen Marek, Todd Redmond
These guys are both old and not really prospects; they ought to be the first to go should Frank Wren ever need to clear a 40-man roster spot. They may last through the winter to get tryouts in the spring, but there's little reason to project either to have any role on the 2010 team.
Trade candidates: Derek Lowe, Jo-Jo Reyes
I stand by what I wrote in my profile of Lowe, that he's due to bounce back in 2010. I am, however, becoming convinced that the lack of starting pitching on the free-agent market may make it easier to move Lowe and most (if not all) of his contract. If another team will take on perhaps $35 million of the $45 million still owed to Lowe, it may make sense to trade him. Plus, one starter has to go, and I'm beginning to agree with the legions of posters who've said Jurrjens can't and won't be traded. Reyes is a guy that just doesn't quite fit in the Braves' plans right now, but who could still bring back value in trade from a team that has room to be patient with him in its starting rotation.
Playing elsewhere: Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano
The Braves will likely offer arbitration to one of the two, not wanting to risk the financial commitment of both accepting. Still, I think both can get multi-year deals on the open market and will head off for greener pastures. It doesn't sound like the Braves have any plans to have substantial contract negotiations with either.
So what does everyone think? Any guys that need moving? Any guys require new categories?
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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
well, you’ve summed it up quite nicely. i really would like to see mike gonzalez in a braves uniform for quite some time, but if i were him, i’m not necessarily sure i’d be willing to make 5 million to be a setup guy and risk wearing my arm down to the point of no return. mike gonzalez gives the team some much needed energy to a ballclub that is not outwardly emotional.
eating 10 mil of d.lowe’s contract would be like we signed tim hudson for 3/37 instead of 3/27 which doesnt sound near as dumb as the 45 million committed to lowe over the next 3 years. here’s to hoping the braves have a good winter meeting in a month or so.
Hard to disagree with the analysis here, though I hate the idea of paying Derek Lowe $10 million not to pitch for us.
I hate the fact that Derek Lowe and Chipper Jones ate up twenty-nine percent of the Braves payroll…….but they did and it probably can’t be fixed. We can thank our venerable GM for this mess.
That said, everybody keeps pointing out what a great job Wren did with the starting pitching but I say hold on just a darn toot’en minute. I seem to remember plan A being some dude by the name of Jake Peavy. Not to mention that the Braves would have traded Yunel Escobar in the deal and replacing him with Rafael Furcal. Simply put, Wren was more lucky than good. He struck gold with Vazquez, overpaid for Derek Lowe and Kawakami’s contract was a bargain but the Japanese veteran needed most of the season to adjust to the big leagues. Anderson was a waste in LF and Chipper’s contract extension was and is a massive brain fart. Nate McLouth was another disappointment but LaRoche turned out to be a plus. Tommy Hanson should have been in the Braves rotation right from day one, after all, the “win now” philosophy is in effect, right? not penny pinching.
So excuse me for being so damn negative all the time but I happen to firmly believe that Frank Wren is as big a screw up as Bobby Cox.
Coach, you can believe whatever you like about Wren, but I have to ask this follow-up question: do you really not feel better about the Braves’ chances now than you have at any point in the last, oh, five years?
You’ve got a starting pitching surplus that any team would envy and a core of solid offensive players, plus some top-notch reinforcements on the way from the minors, and $20 million in payroll space to make some noise this winter (with that number likely to increase to the low-30s once Wren deals a starting pitcher). I do not think it will be particularly difficult to parlay that money into a first baseman, a power-hitting outfielder, and a couple dynamite bullpen arms (four players at $8 million apiece sounds reasonable, right?).
Perhaps you don’t like the franchise’s position right now, or perhaps you do but give no credit to Frank Wren for that. Either would be defensible, I suppose. But I feel incredibly optimistic about the state of the Braves right now, and I think Wren, whether by luck or skill, is inseparable from that optimism. But that’s just me.
Another quick thing: can you please explain how Chipper’s extension is a “brain fart”? If I remember correctly, you were indignant about the way Wren “insulted” Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, yet you’re upset that he went perhaps slightly beyond his means in order to maintain one of the franchise’s other icons? Not sure I understand the logic there.
Just to address your allegation that Wren was just lucky, there’s no way to know what would have happened had Wren signed Furcal and traded a package around Escobar for Peavy. There’s no way to know what Furcal would have hit in Atlanta, and even if you do say that Peavy would’ve gotten hurt regardless of where he played, there wasn’t a problem with his arm and he would still be around for next year. Can’t say I would be complaining if we were going to be lining up Peavy, Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson and Kawakami for next season…