By Keith Allison
Let me just lead with a little side note, that the first round of GM meetings takes place this week in Chicago. Keep it here for the latest rumors and rumblings from those meetings. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming:
It would seem strange that I have so little to say about Brian McCann, since there's an argument to be made that he's the Braves' most valuable long-term property (perhaps a debate for the comments?). But in a way, I think that's part of McCann's value: he's just a guy you don't have to worry about. He's young, he's consistent, and courtesy of a sensible long-term deal, he'll wear a Braves uniform through at least 2013. There's just nothing to worry about here. His 2009 numbers were down from his banner 2008, but he was still the best offensive catcher this side of Joe Mauer, hitting .281/.349/.486 for the year. It would be natural to try to make an excuse for him given his eye troubles, but those only affected him for the first few weeks of the season, and his down production during April wasn't bad enough to significantly impact his season totals. I think what we saw in 2009 is about what we can expect from Brian going forward: an .850-ish OPS and his good ol' sheepish leadership.
The only change I'd like to see in 2010 for McCann is a reduction in his playing time. Mac started a remarkable 115 games after returning to the lineup on May 8, and what's the point of having such a capable backup as David Ross if you never put him on the field? Keeping McCann fresh for the end of the season, and healthy for many seasons to come, is imperative for the long-term health of the franchise, and just a day of rest here and there can go a long way toward making those things happen. Ross is talented enough to play every fifth day, and hopefully Wren bolsters the lineup sufficiently this winter so that Bobby Cox doesn't have to worry about letting McCann sit once a week.
The bottom line: McCann is one of baseball's best catchers, and we can expect more of the same in 2010. More rest can only help, and hopefully he'll get that in 2010, but when he's in the lineup (most of the time), he's an All-Star lock and excellent middle-of-the-order hitter.
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{ 15 comments… read them below or add one }
Tom, could you please cross out the line that reads “There’s just nothing to worry about here.” and add “Of course, he could be struck by lightening, kidnapped by terrorists, or slip in the shower, but otherwise we have little to worry about regarding his production on the field.” We don’t want to presume anything regarding the will of the baseball gods…
I feel about this post the way Tom feels about McCann: it’s solid, and I don’t have much to add. The PT point is very important, and I think we all would like a little more confidence that his eyesight issues are completely in the past. As long as we take care of him, he’s among the very best in baseball — the second-best catcher in baseball, the centerpiece of our franchise, and signed to an extremely reasonable contract that allows us to build a championship caliber team around him, if we spend right.
Not worrying about him is one of the greatest luxuries he provides.
“…what’s the point of having such a capable backup as David Ross if you never put him on the field?”
this is one of the reasons why i think the braves should shop david ross. the guy never gets used and could be a starter for about 10 teams in the majors for the 2010 season. i would rather see david ross in a braves uniform starting once every 4-5 games, but that’s just not going to happen with bobby as the manager. we only have bobby and ross for one more year. trading david ross would be the definition of selling high. combined with the right package, ross could bring a hefty ransom.
I don’t think that it’s true that David Ross will never get used with Bobby as his skipper.
Ross’s usage pattern was a bit bizarre this year. He wound up with 36 starts, not that different from Eddie Perez (37 GS in 1996, 39 in 1998), but 19 of them came in the first two months of the season. Hopefully next year they’ll be better spread out. But thank goodness he’s a ballplayer, unlike Corky Miller.
Just posted this on another Braves blog, but it should be mentioned here:
Why hasn’t Brian McCann started an All Star game? I mean, we are talking about a guy who is unquestionably the best catcher in the NL.
So what I am looking for is a commitment, from ALL Chop’n'Change readers. Right now. In the offseason. Vote for Brian McCann. If he is the top catcher vote-getter, he gets to start. He is the best catcher, so he should be the top vote getter. We need to get him there. Everybody gets 25 votes, but that is per email address. Create another email account. Vote for him 50 -100 times. Whatever it takes. I’m sick of seeing him sit on the bench at the All Star game.
This is a call to arms. Reveille is playing full blast. Get it done.
Thanks, Andrew. On behalf of Chop-n-Change, I completely agree. It’s up to us, people!
in addition to other email accounts, wives and girlfriends can vote too!
I’d say that hanson or jurrjens are the most valuable asset on the team. Obviously, it’s arguable, but McCann isn’t quite the game changer that the others are.
I agree its arguable. Hanson, Jurrjens, and McCann are all very valuable assets, but I’d go with McCann as the most valuable of them. I’m not sure what you mean by ‘game changer’. The starting pitcher is usually the most important player on the days he pitches, but its very hard for a pitcher to be worth as much to the team over the course of a season as a position player, especially a great hitting catcher.
Fangraphs has McCann valued at $19.6 million, 4.4 WAR, JJ at $17.6 million, 3.9 WAR, and Tommy at $11.7 million, 2.6 WAR. The numbers for Tommy are obviously down because of his lesser time with the team. Roughly, if you prorate his value for 32 starts, I get about $17.8 million, 3.96 WAR. So, its really close and there’s a good argument for picking any of the three, but I’d always give the edge to the guy who can affect 5 games in a week. Just my two cents.
The other thing to remember in this “most valuable property” discussion, and the reason I’d likely pick McCann, is that Jurrjens and Hanson are both young pitchers who have not yet passed through the injury nexus of their careers. I’m not trying to suggest that either of them is in immediate danger of getting hurt, but the risk is far greater for either of them than it is for a position player like McCann.
So while I think Jurrjens and Hanson might have greater upside, McCann is a safer bet, and that makes him more valuable in my book.
What I mean by game changer is that he’s not an elite hitter, while jurrjens and tommy were both elite pitchers last year. McCann hits for solid average and solid power, but he’s not the absolute force in the middle of the lineup that a guy like chipper has been over his career. He’s a great hitter (for a catcher). And you always have to add in the extra “for a catcher” phrase. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a huge asset to the team. That said, his bat doesn’t win as many games as an elite player at another position. The point of a pitcher not being as valuable as a position player is also valid, so I won’t argue it too much.
But, Tele, it’s a lot easier to find huge middle-of-the-order hitters at corner positions than up the middle. Brian’s rare because he plays a key defensive position and also mashes the ball, which means that the Braves are getting offense from a position they wouldn’t have expected to — and then all they have to do is complete the comparatively easier task of stocking the corners.
Weirdly, in 2008-2009, they’ve had much better hitters up the middle — with Johnson/Prado, Escobar, and McCann — than on the corners. Much of that is the extreme suckitude of Francoeur and Kotchman, though. Assuming Chipper’s still an elite hitter in the games he plays, I like Diaz in left, but we still have to fill right field (till Heyward’s ready to come in and mash) and first base. It shouldn’t be nearly as hard to find a great hitter there than it is to find a great hitter at catcher, but sometimes fate’s weird. That’s not Brian’s fault, though. He’s already one of the best hitting catchers in ML history.
theoretically, wins above replacement takes into account someone’s position, doesn’t it? So McCann’s 4.4 wins above replacement, while elite for a catcher, would not be considered elite for other positions.
Well, if you have to say “elite for a catcher,” then it sounds like it doesn’t take position into account…
Yes, WAR calculations do include adjustments for position, and in the case of catchers, that adjustment is significant. Still, it makes no sense to discuss what kind of player he’d be if he weren’t a catcher…he IS a catcher, and that’s important. Alex’s logic is spot-on above: if you figure that you need to produce a certain amount of offense from all eight position players, it’s a huge plus if you can get a lot of production out of your catcher. If you’re getting an .850 OPS from your catcher, that takes pressure off the team to get production from other positions.
In short, yes, WAR does adjust for position, but it does so for a specific reason. Positional scarcity is a very real consideration in terms of valuing players, and McCann gets major credit for being a catcher who also happens to be able to catch.