by The Suss-Man (Mike)
There was a time when I thought Clint Sammons would make a great catching tandem with Brian McCann for the next half-decade. Sammons' defense has always been spectacular, and I hoped he'd hit just enough to be a solid caddy for B-Mac. But after two full years at Triple-A posting OPS totals in the low 600s, and showing an equally lifeless bat in his brief major-league stays, it looks like Sammons might not even be a quality backup for an International League team. The Braves will probably keep him around on the 40-man as a third catcher, but they'll need to hope that both McCann and David Ross stay healthy enough that they will seldom if ever have to call on Sammons. It looks like Frank Wren will once again have to go hunting for a backup catcher once Ross' two-year deal expires, because Sammons hasn't shown anything to make me believe he'll ever stay on a major-league roster for more than a few weeks at a time. Clint is a solid catch-and-throw type, but he offers so little in the way of offense that it's difficult to see him ever sticking.
The bottom line: Sammons probably last the winter on the 40-man roster, but the Braves should hope he doesn't spend too much time on the 25-man roster. He will likely never get significant playing time in Atlanta.
Since there wasn't a whole lot to say about Sammons, I'll just tack on a couple more links down here for everyone's enjoyment. To begin with, it appears that Boone Logan has accumulated enough service time to be eligible for arbitration. It was fun while it lasted, huh, Boone? He'll be non-tendered for sure.
Also, in her analysis of the Tim Hudson extension, Baseball Prospectus' Christina Kahrl toys with the idea of a Jair Jurrjens-for-Adrian Gonzalez swap (sorry, subscription only). I'm no longer so gung-ho on trading Jurrjens, but I can see that deal making sense for both sides. The Padres desperately need pitching, and they'd be getting four years of Jurrjens for two years of Gonzalez. The Braves desperately need hitting, and they'd be getting a guy who has hit an absurd .306/.402/.643 away from PETCO Park last season, and who is due just $10.25 million over the next two years. And to boot, he actually deserved the Gold Glove he won, as he led the NL in UZR for a first baseman. I wouldn't throw in a bunch of prospects, but if we could get Gonzo for JJ close to straight up, I think Frank Wren would have to seriously consider pulling the trigger.
Last but not least, we've got Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi (we really need to come up with a portmanteau for those two names) at FOXSports.com discussing ongoing trade interest in Josh Willingham. They name the Braves as an interested party. K-Ros says the Braves are worried about Willingham's back, but there's little reason to believe his past issues are chronic. They're also worried about his defense, and as well they should be, but he's still leagues ahead of the guy who manned left field for most of last year. And the guy hits like clockwork, having batted .265/.362/.481 over about 2000 PAs in the last four seasons. He might like to be rescued from Nationals Park as well, given that he hit .284/.384/.578 away from home last year. He's due perhaps $5 million in arbitration, and with another year of team control in 2011, he's worth a long look.
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{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
I honestly can’t say much on the Clint Sammons front, because all I know about it really is what you just told me. I think that a third catcher doesn’t have to be that awesome, simply because there’s a starter and then a reasonable back-up/occasional starter. The third guy just seems like he’s there for some sort of freak accident or bullpen stuff. Now, if Ross gets moved within this off season or next, then we should probably have some other ideas in the works. We shall see though.
On the trade rumors, I think JJ for Gonzalez would in fact be pretty fair for both parties. We have an overwhelming amount of pitching right now and we need a corner with a bat and a glove is just extra to boot. San Diego just needs help in general. Haha. The difference in the years on contract is the only thing that I’d be somewhat wary of. Again, we shall see. It may end up simply being a rumor.
Josh Willingham, engh. I’m sure he’d like out of D.C. I would too. I agree he’d be worth a look. I may look at it stronger if we were to get our first base problem situated first though. Personally, I’d really like to get that squared away before worrying about too much else.
Again, just my opinions. Please nobody kill me. I just want to live a full and happy life. Haha.
I like Willingham. He doesn’t cost much, and he can hit. But where do we put him?
Well he doesn’t bring a sparkling glove no matter where he plays, but he could play either left field or first base, which would leave Wren some flexibility as far as getting another hitter is concerned.
nowhere…he doesnt have a place and will take at bats way from a better fielder and hitter, matt diaz.
Ryan, Matt Diaz’s BABIP last year was .384. He’s not going to hit .313 again. Take 40 points of his BABIP (which still leaves him pretty high at .344) and suddenly he’s a .273/.350/.458 hitter, which is still plenty good, but also not unequivocally better than Willingham. Even if you do still like Diaz as an everyday player (and I won’t necessarily object to that notion), and Jason Heyward still ought to start the season in the minors to buy that critical extra year of team control. So you start with a Willingham/McLouth/Diaz outfield, and if, lo and behold, all those guys are raking come June, then the Jay Hey Kid can wait. But I suspect that injuries or ineffectiveness will ensure that Heyward gets plenty of PT in 2010. Diaz is not good enough that we need to reserve a starting spot for him.
Matt Diaz’s career batting average is .310 and his career BABIP is .362. Since coming to the Braves (where, if you recall, a vision exam turned up an astigmatism which the Braves helped him address), he’s batted .313 with a .368 BABIP. His performance last year was virtually indistinguishable from his performance in 2006 or 2007. I think there’s some evidence that this is repeatable.
Re: Tom/Alex,
I tend to side with Tom on this issue, though you’re probably both a little bit right. There is SOME evidence that his performance is sustainable, but not nearly as much as you’d like.
Though Diaz has played in 7 MLB seasons, he’s amassed barely over 2 seasons of PA’s. That’s about half of what I’d like to have when evaluating a player. He’s also got a 48% career platoon advantage (about 25-27% of MLB pitchers are left-handed, the Braves have usually seen ~30% LHP lately) and he hits lefties much better than righties. Career splits:
VS LHP .347/.384/.537/.921 (.373 BABIP) 3.03 K/BB .190 ISO
VS RHP .276/.334/.387/.722 (.350 BABIP) 4.07 K/BB .111 ISO
Since BABIP is so volatile and since we don’t have an adequate sample size, you have to regress his BABIP to the mean some. The question is, how much? I won’t get into a crystal ball game, but I’m guessing his true stabilized BABIP over an infinite number of PA’s is less than .362.
Peter makes all the points I’d have made and more. The handedness thing is an excellent thing to note, as is the sample size argument. I’m also in agreement that you may not have to regress all the way back to the mean: maybe Diaz does have an ability to put balls in play “well” so that his BABIP can be higher. But he still has to regress to the mean SOME, and notice that in my analysis, I still left Diaz with a sky-high .344 BABIP. Regress him all the way back to the mean, and suddenly he’s borderline worthless. My overall point is this: Matt Diaz is a guy that could be a regular if we needed him to, but better to build up some redundancy and allow him to be baseball’s best fill-in. That way you don’t have to rely on him staying lucky and not getting overexposed by all the playing time.