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        <title>Chop-n-Change</title>
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            <title>Suitors of Yunel - Part 2</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height:normal">This is part 2 of the
expose into the possible dealings for Yunel Escobar (see <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/james-piette-suitors-of-yunel---part-1.html">part 1</a>).</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal">UPDATE:</b> Escobar left tonight's game in the bottom the fourth inning
with what appears to be a hip flexor problem.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;
</span>I didn't sound too serious, but it is sure to put a damper on trade
talks regarding our now even slower shortstop.</p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">(4) <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">Corey Hart<o:p></o:p></b></p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">The general feeling
around the blog-o-sphere is that Corey Hart may never become the Grady
Sizemore-lite that so many believed he could be.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>I won't go into too much depth about Corey
Hart's past seasons. &nbsp;David Golebiewski certainly did it enough justice&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/corey-harts-hacking-ways">here</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>To reiterate his critique in the article, it
seems pitchers had all agreed on a game plan when approaching Hart: "get ahead
of him 0-1, and then feed him a steady diet of sliders, knowing full well that
he would be tempted to chase them out of the zone."&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">That article was
written before the 2009 started.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>At the time, many experts believed that he would rebound the following season.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>By taking a quick glance at Hart's statistics
for this year, it's clear he has not.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;
</span>There is little difference between his current OPS of .750 and his
previous year's .759.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Even worse are his
peripherals; they seem to confirm the pitching strategy outlined above.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>The 22.9% strikeout rate he is sporting
is 5% more than it was last year.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>The
struggling outfielder is taking notice to this, though, by drawing more walks than in
the past three years, up to 9.2%, and swinging at much fewer pitches outside of
the zone.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Unfortunately, this change
seems to be costing him some of his power (on pace for 34 doubles, a total that
is 11 lower than last season).</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">His poor hitting still
hasn't made Hart useless. <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span>He is on pace
to improve upon his last year's RAR, but it will fall far short from the 44.0
runs above replacement he had produced in 2007.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;
</span>Add in that he is already into his arbitration years garnering a 3.25
mil salary in his first eligible year, Hart is definitely not an attractive
trading option.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;There is hope. &nbsp;Anyone with flashes of greatness like in his 2007 season is certainly capable of doing it again (see Carlos Quentin and what he did in the minors). &nbsp;I believe he</span>&nbsp;is the perfect
opportunity "buy low" candidate on the trading block, but taking only
Hart for our prized shortstop would be a definite loss.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>However, if we were looking for <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/43246442.html">Abraham Lincoln</a>
impersonators, there is no doubt he would be our best option.</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">(3) <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">Denard Span<o:p></o:p></b></p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">Acquiring Span has two
key benefits over fellow outfielder Michael Cuddyer, the other Minnesota Twin
mentioned as possible trade bait by Buster Olney: his potential and his
cost.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>The 25-year-old hitter had a good
rookie year in 2008, where he displayed his plus speed, good eye, and
above-average defense in right (below-average in center).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>He managed to post a batting line of
.294/.387/.432 with 18 stolen bases in a matter of 411 plate appearances.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>His '09 campaign hasn't been quite as
successful as his OPS has fallen to .759.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;
</span>This drop was, actually, predicted by all of the projection
systems[1].</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">More interesting is
that most of them were even more pessimistic about his sophomore season.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Bill James' projections, naturally[2],
expected the most out of Denard, but .739 OPS he predicted him to have is still
less than his current line.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>This
discrepancy is mostly due to the underestimation of his strikeout tendencies
and his ability to draw walks.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>He is
currently walking about once in every 9 plate appearances (11.1%), while only
striking out 14.7% of the time.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Plus,
his contact percentage has improved (88.7% to 91.4%) via making more contact on
pitches outside of the zone (+13.8% making contact when swinging inside of the
zone), while he has cut down the number of pitches he swings at out of the zone
(down 2.9% to 58.0%).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Considering he was
expected to have a BB% and a K% of approximately 8-10% and 17-19%,
respectively, I would say he hasn't necessarily disappointed this year.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Still, while everyone recognizes Span has
potential, there doesn't seem to be much agreement on how high or how soon.</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">At this point, much of
what I am going to say is speculative, but it is my belief that, if he can
improve his defense in center, Denard Span will be a top tier at that
position.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>I have some evidence of this
claim.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>His RAR in his rookie season, during
which he only played two thirds of a year, was 26.2 runs.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>This year, so far, he has produced 17.6 runs
above a replacement player, according to Fangraphs.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>Most of this is done splitting his time in left
and center at a two to one rate.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>He has
shown improvement at center this year by recording a -42.8 UZR/150 in '08 to
-9.7[3].<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>If he can translate this
defense into a superior right fielder and slowly, yet consistently, improve his
bat, I don't see any reason why he can't become as good, if not better, than
Yunel.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>The chance
that he turns out better, given the above empirical and external scouting "<a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/7/14/570778/prospect-update-denard-spa">evidence</a>", is there, but it is certainly not substantial enough to guarantee
certain future success.</p>

<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height:normal">Whatever Span's chance
at a huge upside may be, my final verdict on this trade is that it is a
complete wash unless one of the following is true: 1) we need a top-of-the-order
guy who can steal bases or 2) Atlanta believes the replacement for Yunel (Brooks Conrad) is much better
than who <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span>(a combination of Matt Diaz and
Brandon Jones).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;Both&nbsp;</span>of these
things are unlikely, so I'll stick with my gut feeling.</p> ]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part-2.html</link>
            <guid>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part-2.html</guid>
            
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Yunel Escobar</category>
            
            <pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:48:02 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Six Games in Six Days: My Very Late Final Thoughts</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>I'm about ten days late with this, but I drove out my sixth game in six days (after watching the Braves finally beat the Red Sox!) and headed straight for my vacation.&nbsp; I'm finally back and have a free moment, so I want to add my final thoughts on my Six Games in Six Days journey.</p>
<p>First, I've learned that I will probably never be a season ticket holder, at least not the kind that goes to every game.&nbsp; When you live 40 miles or so from the stadium and have a full-time job (along with a part-time teaching gig and sports blogging to do), six games in six days is exhausting!&nbsp; Now, I can imagine nothing better than having a job that paid me to go to every game, but until then I don't think I'll be making it to the ballpark so often.&nbsp; That's not to say that I won't be watching on tv or listening on the radio though, so don't think I'm not still as diehard a Braves fan as ever.</p>
<p>That leads me to what I wanted to write about today: being a diehard fan.&nbsp; First, let's all admit that the people who can call themselves diehard Braves fans in this city are scant when compared to those who follow the Yankees or Red Sox.&nbsp; If you haven't figured that out yet, then you didn't go to any of the six games.&nbsp; As a matter of fact, you probably didn't listen to any of them on the radio or tv either, because I hear they talked at length about the presence of masses of Yankee and Red Sox fans at The Ted those six days.&nbsp; What you missed were chants of "Let's Go Yankees" or "Let's Go Red Sox" and a litany of other chants by the Yankee fans and the Red Sox Faithful.&nbsp; At times I was sure there were more of them than there were of us, but it was obvious they had at least equaled our numbers.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Forget your disappointment in Braves fans for not showing up in full force or being louder.&nbsp; Forget how much you hate those obnoxious Yankee fans yelling in the stands.&nbsp; Those six games were the six best games of the season at The Ted.&nbsp; Those six days and nights were baseball at its best, even if the Braves were not.&nbsp; People came early and tailgated.&nbsp; People went in the ballpark two hours before the game.&nbsp; Virtually everyone who came into the park was wearing something with a team logo.&nbsp; The stands were nearly full when the game started - and the same was true when the game ended.&nbsp;&nbsp;Nearly 50,000 people came through the gates of The Ted everyday for six straight days.&nbsp; For those six days, Atlanta was a baseball city.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Having lived here my entire life, I've always been a Braves fan.&nbsp; I've also never cared if there were 5,000 people in the park or 50,000.&nbsp; I've only left two games early in my entire life, and I think I've only missed the first pitch once.&nbsp; I've never cared if anyone else was a diehard fan because it didn't matter - I was and am.&nbsp; That all changed in 2001 when I visited Fenway Park for the first time.&nbsp; My father has been a dual Braves-Red Sox fan for as long as I can remember, so I have as well.&nbsp; But it wasn't until 2001 when he and I visited Fenway Park for the first time that I really formed my bond with the Red Sox.&nbsp; Going to a game at Fenway is like stepping back in time.&nbsp; They literally roll up metal gates to start letting people into the ballpark.&nbsp; I went on a tour and sat in the same dugout&nbsp;where Babe Ruth and Ted Williams once sat.&nbsp; I saw the names of hundreds of players scrawled on the wall inside a door out on the Green Monster.&nbsp; I sat in the same cramped confines that so many have before me and watched the game unfold before me.&nbsp; And it wasn't just the ballpark - it was the fans.&nbsp; There is not a single Red Sox fan who comes into that stadium that doesn't have something on with a Red Sox logo, whether it's a shirt, a hat, a pin - they're all sporting something with the logo.&nbsp; It is an amazing experience for anyone who loves baseball, whether you like the Red Sox or not.&nbsp; Being a Red Sox fan just makes it that much better.</p>
<p>Ever since then, I have found fault with my fellow Atlantans for not caring more about the Braves.&nbsp; I know our team doesn't have the history here in Atlanta that the Red Sox have in Boston, or the Yankees have in New York, but you have to admit that we have a lackluster fan base for a city this size.&nbsp; As embarrassing as it was at times during these last series against the Yankees and the Red Sox, nothing was more embarrassing to me as a Braves fan than the last time we were in the playoffs and we couldn't even sell out the stadium.&nbsp; </p>
<p>I don't know how you repair this problem, or if anyone else even really thinks it's a problem, but what I do know is that those six games felt like I think baseball is supposed to feel like when you go to a game.&nbsp; If you missed getting to one, you really missed out.&nbsp; Regardless of the fact that the team didn't play the best baseball, they were the best games of the year in terms of being a fan in the crowd.&nbsp; I may have been exhausted, and it may be easier to say now that I'm rested again, but I enjoyed every minute of those six days and nights, from the time I got to the ballpark (two hours before the game, of course) until the final out.&nbsp; And even though I'm an admitted Red Sox fan as well, I was proud to be a Braves fan those six days!</p>
<p>For my thoughts on this and more, you can now follow me on Twitter @BaseblEconoMiss!</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/six-games-in-six-days-my-very-late-final-thoughts.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:49:40 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Tom Gieryn: July 7 recap</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<b>Braves 2, Cubs 1</b><br /><br /><b>MVP</b>: Javier Vazquez.&nbsp; Seven innings of one-run baseball in a close game...that's an ace for you right there.<br /><b>LVP</b>:
Yunel Escobar.&nbsp; 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, both of which came with
men on base.&nbsp; He wasn't far from the only hitter with a negative WPA
though..<br /><b>MIP</b>: Brian McCann's RBI double with two outs in the third to break the 1-1 tie and put the Bravos ahead for good.<br /><b>UotG</b>: Starting pitching.&nbsp; Vazquez pretty much won this game by himself, posting a WPA of .413.<b><br /><br /></b><b>Minors</b><br />
<br />
<b>Gwinnett</b>:
Reid Gorecki's name probably shouldn't keep showing up here, because he
really isn't a prospect, but I still think he could be somebody's fifth
outfielder someday; anyway, he had two more hits (both doubles) in
three at-bats today, and he's now hitting .282/.351/.576 over the last
month.&nbsp; Brandon Jones singled twice for the other multi-hit game.&nbsp;
Jo-Jo Reyes appeared from the injury shadows again, tossing two
scoreless innings with two strikeouts, and lefty reliever Kevin
Gunderson's Triple-A debut was a rocky one (2 ER in 2/3 of an inning).<br />
<br />
<b>Mississippi</b>:
Jason Heyward doubled and walked in five trips, which is about all the
offense the M-Braves mustered in this 6-0 loss.&nbsp; Scott Diamond with yet
another solid start here: seven innings, three earned runs, one walk,
ten strikeouts.&nbsp; Brent Butts (nephew of Braves' former bullpen catcher
Alan Butts) tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings to close...he's one of those
guys I just sort of irrationally like, even though his best case is
that he turns out to be a middle reliever someday.<br />
<br />
<b>Myrtle Beach</b>:
No extra base hits for the Pelicans in this game; the only multi-hit
game came from the recently-promoted slugging first baseman Gerardo
Rodriguez.&nbsp; G-Rod has great power, but he'll have to improve his plate
discipline a ton if he ever wants to play major-league baseball.&nbsp;
Still, he's not a bad find for the Braves, as he was released from the
Yankees system after the 2007 season.&nbsp; The worse news, though, is that
Cole Rohrbough continues to get shelled...this time he went just 2 2/3
innings, yielding six runs on five hits, five walks and three
strikeouts.&nbsp; His ERA stands at 5.97.&nbsp; At some point you start to hope
he is hurting because at least that would give an explanation other
than ineffectiveness.&nbsp; Young closer prospect Benino Pruneda (who has
touched 100 on the gun) gave up three runs in 2 2/3 innings, but
promising Craig Kimbrel and beleaguered Rudy Darrow (acquired for Josh
Anderson, sine dealt with injury and control issues) combined for two
perfect innings with five strikeouts between them.<br />
<br />
<b>Rome</b>: Last
year's 30th-round pick Chris Shehan had two hits, as did third baseman
Samuel Sime, who started the season on fire but has since cooled off in
a big way.&nbsp; The star of the show here was Zeke Spruill, who came off
his Sally League All-Star appearance to toss eight three-hit, shutout
innings with ten strikeouts.<br />
<br />
<b>Danville</b>: Danville beat Pulaski
23-7, so this contest was all offense, and the box score frankly looks
pretty ridiculous.&nbsp; Mycal Jones went 3-for-4 including a home run,
walked, scored three times and drove in two.&nbsp; Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg
went 3-for-5, doubled and walked twice (he's now hitting .494/.508/.754
in 57 ABs).&nbsp; Robby Hefflinger smacked a homer in a 2-for-5 day, and
added a walk but did strikeout three times.&nbsp; Three more '09 draftees
hit home runs: 14th-round outfielder Cory Harrilchak (who went 5-for-7
in the game), 13th-round third baseman Jordan Kreke, and 31st-round
first baseman Derek Wiley.<br />
<br />
<b>GCL</b>: Almost literally nothing notable
here, as the complex league Braves managed just three hits, and while
the pitchers did toss seven shutout innings in a shortened game, none
of the guys who participated are really prospects. <br />]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/tom-gieryn-july-7-recap.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Tom Gieryn</category>
            
            <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:48:34 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>James Piette: Suitors of Yunel - Part 1</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>As is custom with sports writers, Buster Olney recently wrote about a few of the <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4305723&amp;name=olney_buster&amp;action=login&amp;appRedirect=http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index%3fentryID%3d4305723%26name%3dolney_buster" target="_blank">"potential trades"</a> <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#1" name="1a">[1]</a> that the Braves might execute. It is his belief that Atlanta will be looking to acquire an outfield bat for either Yunel or Javier. What a surprise! While we, like Olney, are capable of inventing a wide array of plausible scenarios that the Braves could engage, I will take Olney as an <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIMIdKImUMg" target="_blank">"industry insider"</a> <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#2" name="2a">[2]</a> and assume that the (basically)<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#3" name="3a">[3]</a> six acquisitions that he mentions involving Escobar are currently the most likely to occur. Note that I am focusing on Escobar and not Vazquez because the deals he proposes for Vazquez are incomplete<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#4" name="4a">[4]</a>. The players he mentions are (in alphabetical order):&nbsp;</p><ul type="DISC"><li>Michael Cuddyer</li><li>Shin-Soo Choo</li><li>Corey Hart</li><li>Matt LaPorta</li><li>Denard Span</li><li>Mark Teahen</li></ul> <br /><p>It is always beneficial to rank all possible trades and, as mentioned above, Olney's list is an appropriate place to start. These rankings will represent my evaluation of which trade leaves Atlanta the best off, in general. By this, I mean I plan on rating each trade based on both the short-term and long-term<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#5" name="5a">[5]</a>. Before getting started, I want to point out that I do not believe that some of these deals for Yunel are worth it <i>at all</i>. Yunel is a top 10 shortstop and is almost certainly going to improve as a player. I don't put too much weight on attitudes, with a few exceptions (ala Elijah Dukes), but even when considering that, any acquisition that includes Escobar needs to have a good deal of talent on the other end to make any trade worthwhile. With that, let's see which of our lovely suitors have the most to offer. <br /> <br /></p><p>(6)<b> Mark Teahen</b></p><p>This is, honestly, the worst of the major trade options Buster talks about in the article. Teahen, who was made famous by Michael Lewis in his book, <i>Moneyball</i>, and a fantastic article he wrote for the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/24/magazine/24BASEBALL.html" target="_blank">New York Times Magazine</a>, probably needs little introduction. After his first productive major league campaign in 2006, Mark proceeded to disappoint for the two years after that, with his OPS dropping from .876 in '06 to .763 in '07 and .715 in '08. He has bounced back, so far, in '09 with an above-average .292/.350/.451 line. <br /></p><p>As Olney mentions in his article, a key advantage to Teahen is his positional flexibility. The guy came up as a third basemen, moved into the outfield playing both right and left in 2007, garnered some time at first and third (again) while continuing to play right field, spent this past spring training trying to learn <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1/27/737567/now-playing-second-base-nu" target="_blank">second base</a> <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#6" name="6a">[6]</a>, and, finally, is now spending a majority of his time back at third base. It's obvious his DeRosa-lite presence would bode well with an aging left fielder, an injury prone third baseman, and a "right fielder". <br /></p><p>My problem with this is that we don't need <i>that</i> guy. That role is already filled by a combination of Omar Infante and Martin Prado. Omar can play all of Teahen's positions plus he is a decent shortstop. Infante's projected line is decidedly worse, coming in around .275/.335/.400, but he did show (in his little playing time) this year that he was hitting for more contact. In his 184 plate appearances, he had cut his projected K% almost in half to 8.1% for the year. Teahen is undoubtedly a better hitter, but by a fairly slim margin. However, even more comparable to Teahen is Prado.  <br /></p><p>While Martin Prado can't play outfield, he has the same predicted OPS as Teahen; the difference is the combinations of power and on-base abilities they use to produce that number. Here are the CHONE projections of each player's advanced statistics for this year<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#7" name="7a">[7]</a>:</p><table border="1"> 
<tbody><tr> 
<th>Player Name</th>

<th>BB%</th> 
<th>K%</th>

<th>OBP</th>

<th>SLG</th>

<th>OPS</th> 
</tr> 
<tr> 
<td>Martin Prado</td>

<td>7.9%</td>

<td>13.5%</td>

<td>.355</td> 
<td>.409</td>

<td>.764</td> 
</tr> 
<tr> 
<td>Mark Teahen</td>

<td>9.3%</td>

<td>22.0%</td>

<td>.341</td> 
<td>.426</td>

<td>.767</td> 
</tr>

</tbody></table> <p> <br /></p><p>Prado's contact makes up for his slight deficit in his batter's eye to Teahen, giving him a slightly higher OBP. Teahen's extra power (career HR/FB of 10.8% to Prado's 4.4%) shows up in SLG, beating out Prado in that category. The season is halfway through, however, so we can update these predictions with what both of these players have done this year.  <br /></p><p>Teahen is outperforming his current projections by a small amount, but it should be taken with a grain of salt. His BB% is down (7.1%) and his BABIP is elevated (.344 to his projected .327). We all know Prado has been ridiculous so far this year. This past week's NL Player of The Week is sporting a .889 OPS. That will, inevitably, come back down to Earth, but there are some positives to take from it. He has further improved his contact by only striking out in 8.0% of his at-bats and his BABIP is <i>below</i> his projection. They may profile differently, but Prado's and Teahen's overall contribution with their bats are about the same. <br /></p><p>This should be enough for why we wouldn't want Teahen's services, but, in case you are still not convinced, I'll continue on. The two players compare nearly identically defensively. Mark's only position he has posted a positive UZR/150<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#8" name="8a">[8]</a> (while logging enough playing time to consider the results as significant) is right field, where he saved 6.7 runs in 2007<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#9" name="9a">[9]</a>. Prado's defensive work around the diamond has been mixed, but should not be considered distinctly worse than Teahen. He seems to be adequate to below-average at third base and above-average at first. Second has been a struggle for Prado, but comparing him to Teahen who wasn't even good enough defensively to play that position in Kansas City is a stretch<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#10" name="10a">[10]</a>. <br /></p><p>Finally, the last thing to consider is his contract. I won't say too much here, since I will be talking about many of the underlying problems with moving Yunel when considering Cuddyer's contract (see below), so I'll sum Teahen up pretty quickly. He is in his second year of arbitration and will be set free, as it were, within two years. Yunel is not even arbitration eligible yet. 'Nuff said. <br /></p><p>I think that this analysis leads to a pretty simple conclusion: whatever we get from Mark Teahen, we already have in one form or another. Why would we need to send an top tier shortstop away to acquire a service that we can install internally? <br /> <br /></p><p>(5) <b>Michael Cuddyer</b></p><p>Trading for Michael Cuddyer would be a less poor idea than acquiring Mark Teahen, but, more importantly, would be very unrealistic. Cuddyer is a solid right fielder, posting an OPS+ of 124, 111, and 92 over the last 3 years. While his current line of .278/.359/.516 shows he is improving at the age of 30, he is no defensive stud. He has never posted a UZR/150 of above -5 runs for the past 3+ seasons. There is also the concern of injury, which sidelined him for most of last season. However, his biggest flaw of all is the contract he carries around with him.  <br /></p><p>This year he makes 6.75 mil and he'll make another 8.5 mil in '10. That's not a ridiculous contract, but it is definitely not worth it in this market. Given that Dunn is only getting paid 10 mil a year (my arbitrary reference point), I would think we could get a lot more bang with our buck<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#11" name="11a">[11]</a>. Plus, I don't expect the Braves are willing to take on that much payroll. The same goes for Minnesota; I doubt they will cushion Cuddyer's financial blow. <br /></p><p>Let's say that we did have the best case scenario, where Minnesota pays for half of that contract. At that point, it might be a decent trade. However, Yunel is still under control for about 4 years, he will cost us much less than Cuddyer, especially considering that we have a guarantee of service from Yunel, and he is a better player for his position.  <br /></p><p>To give a little perspective, Yunel's RAR, or Runs Above Replacement<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#12" name="12a">[12]</a>, last season was 32.0 runs. Cuddyer's RAR for his last full season (2007) was 21.8 RAR. Considering the replacement for Yunel would be Brooks Conrad and Cuddyer would be filling in for Francoeur<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#13" name="13a">[13]</a>/Diaz, we would actually be losing a few runs<a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/suitors-of-yunel---part.html#14" name="14a">[14]</a>. Thus, paying extra for the chance that Cuddyer, who is slightly less impressive at his position, to perform above what is expected while losing out on two "free seasons" from Yunel is simply not worth it. Hopefully (finger crossed), this trade will never be given real consideration. <br /> <br /></p><p>Parts 2 and 3 will be coming out over the next two days.</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/james-piette-suitors-of-yunel---part-1.html</link>
            <guid>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/james-piette-suitors-of-yunel---part-1.html</guid>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">buster olney</category>
            
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Trades</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Yunel Escobar</category>
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:12:40 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Tom Gieryn: July 6 Recap</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<b>Cubs 4, Braves 2</b><br /><br /><b>MVP</b>: Yunel Escobar. Two singles, a walk, and an RBI in four trips was enough to earn MVP for this game.<br /><b>LVP</b>:
Jair Jurrjens. Four earned runs allowed in six innings isn't exactly
impressive, and while I hate to dock a pitcher for his hitting, he
grounded into a fielder's choice with two outs and the bases loaded
with the Braves down 4-1 in the fourth, which was a big play for the
Cubbies.<br /><b>MIP</b>: Derrek Lee's two-run homer with one out in the first
inning. As usual, in a game where one team is in control the entire
game, the first runs are most important.<br /><b>UotG</b>: Since this is the
first recap of a loss, remember that the "unit of the game" is the one
that contributes most to the result (i.e., if we win, this is the most
valuable; if we lose, it's the least valuable). So the losers today
are the <b>offense</b>, who mustered just two runs in an ultimately winnable
game.<br /><br /><b>Minors</b><br /><br /><b>Gwinnett</b>: Reid Gorecki and Barbaro Canizares
continued their hot hitting with a single and a double apiece, and Greg
Norton added two hits in his apparently never-ending rehab assignment. 
Todd Redmond got shelled, yielding five runs on seven hits (including a
homer) and four walks in 2 1/3 innings.<br /><br /><b>Mississippi</b>: Outfielder
Concepcion Rodriguez, who <a href="http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/red-sox/rob-bradford/2009/06/22/five-things-we-learned-you-learn-something-new-about-n?page=0,1">recently gained some notoriety</a> as one of the
guys who would have been part of the package traded to Pittsburgh at
last year's trade deadline, went 3-for-4; he has now hit in nine of his
last ten games after a very slow start to the season. Jason Heyward
continues unfazed by the Southern League with two hits including a
triple, and three RBIs in five ABs. He's hitting .417 post-promotion. 
Jeff Lyman, who was just promoted to the rotation after a strong start
to the year in the bullpen, allowed two runs in five innings on two
walks, two hits and five K's. All three relievers who appeared in the
game (recently-demoted Deunte Heath, Bryan Dumesnil, and Cory Gearrin)
allowed runs.<br /><br /><b>Rome</b>: I feel like a broken record saying that
Rome's offense produced nothing noteworthy in this game, mustering just
three hits (though one was a homer by last year's fifth-round pick
Braeden Schlehuber). Dimaster Delgado pitched six strong innings,
allowing two runs, walking none and striking out eight, and Tyrelle
Harris made his Rome debut with two scoreless innings to close out the
contest.<br /><br /><b>Danville</b>: Center fielder L.V. Ware went 3-for-5 to
raise his season average to .393; he's a little old for the Appy League
at 22, but at least he's raking. Riaan Spanjer-Furstenberg had just
one hit in this game (awww...) and struck out three times, but he's
still hitting .462. Promising seventh-round pick Robby Hefflinger out
of Georgia Perimeter had two hits including a homer, and toolsy
fourth-round shortstop Mycal Jones added three more hits. Lefty Tyler
Stovall once again struggled with his control, striking out six but
walking five in four innings of work.<br /><br /><b>GCL</b>: Not too much to
report on offense aside from right fielder Anthony Feliz's 4-for-4
afternoon with two doubles. Aaron Northcraft allowed two earned runs
in three innings, but did strike out four against only one walk. He
was a good sign by the <br />Braves. Knuckleballing novelty Lance Niekro got in the game, allowing a homer but nothing else in his inning of work. 
]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/tom-gieryn-july-6-recap.html</link>
            <guid>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/tom-gieryn-july-6-recap.html</guid>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Atlanta Braves</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:55:00 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Congratulations, Brian McCann -- Tough Noogies, Chipper Jones and Javy Vazquez</title>
            <description><![CDATA[The Braves <a href="http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2009/roster_league.jsp">have one All-Star</a> this year, Brian McCann. Brian won't be starting, though -- that nod goes to Yadier Molina, because St. Louis fans are more committed ballot-stuffers, I guess. And Chipper Jones, coming off a batting title, will be staying at home. So will Javier Vazquez, #2 in the NL in K's. Jason Marquis won't -- he's one of two Rockies, along with Brad Hawpe.<br /><br />Even though there are 32 All-Stars this year (<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090701&amp;content_id=5639558&amp;vkey=news_mlb&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=mlb">and a 33rd</a>, to be chosen by the fans), the Braves are one of six teams with just one All-Star, along with powerhouse squads like Washington, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and San Diego. The ten teams with more All-Stars than us: Philadelphia, New York, Florida, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Houston, Arizona, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Colorado.<br /><br />If we keep on dropping games to the Washington Nationals, of course, I guess we'll validate the voters' point. Come on, Derek. Pull it together.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/congratulations-brian-mccann----tough-noogies-chipper-jones-and-javy-vazquez.html</link>
            <guid>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/congratulations-brian-mccann----tough-noogies-chipper-jones-and-javy-vazquez.html</guid>
            
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">all-star game</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Atlanta Braves</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">game threads</category>
            
            <pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:44:34 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>James Piette: Kelly Johnson&apos;s Proverbial Fork-in-the-Road</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<div style="margin: 1ex;"><div><i>Another post -- happy Independence Day, everybody! Here's James Piette's take on Kelly Johnson.</i><br /><br />Not to get all <a href="http://www.bartleby.com/119/1.html">poetic</a>, but Kelly Johnson's career path has diverged 
into two roads. Perhaps the metaphor is lost on me, since I certainly 
did have comprehension problems in Engrish class<a href="#1" name="1a">[1]</a>, but there are two 
directions he could choose<a href="#2" name="2a">[2]</a>: one leading him to years and years of 
success or another directing him to the door. <br /><br />

<p>Okay, I'll admit my segues are cheesy, 
but the point is still the same. Johnson will either make a stand 
and be in the league for years to come or his major league career will 
soon be over. It is shocking to believe that someone who had such 
a promising career is so close to the flaming out. But it is an 
actual possibility. Why do I believe there is such starkness in 
what is to come for KJ next? Instead of traipsing through all 
of his statistics, I believe it is better if we take a look at some 
of his comparables. Before the season started, here are his top 
4 similar batters through age 26<a href="#3" name="3a">[3]</a>: <br /></p>
<ol><li><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurowwh01.shtml" target="_blank">Whitey 
Kurowski</a></li><li><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boonebr01.shtml" target="_blank">Bret 
Boone</a></li><li><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belliro01.shtml" target="_blank">Ron 
Belliard</a></li><li><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vergejo01.shtml" target="_blank">Johnny 
Vergez</a> <br /></li></ol>



<p>Most of you probably recognize the middle two, the one who hit that home run (and occasionally <a href="http://deadspin.com/140434/bret-boones-dangerous-golf-cart-exploits" target="_blank">flips golf carts</a>) and the other with his famous Predator <a href="http://dietrichthrall.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/predator.jpg" target="_blank">braids</a>, but the first and last might be less familiar. 
To provide a little background on the other two, Whitey was a third 
baseman. He was selected as an All-Star in 1943, 1944, 1946, and 
1947, while playing his entire career for the Cardinals, where he garnered 
enough votes to appear on the MVP ballot five times. Vergez was 
also a third basemen and spent a majority of his time with the New York 
Giants in the mid to late '30s. To really grasp the dichotomy 
that may be the potential career paths of Kelly Johnson, let's first 
look at his numbers at 26 compared to the other four batsmen listed 
above at that same age: <br /></p><table border="1"> 
<tbody><tr> 
<th>Player Name</th>

<th>PA</th> 
<th>AVG</th>

<th>OBP</th>

<th>SLG</th>

<th>OPS+<a href="#4" name="4a">[4]</a></th> 
</tr> 
<tr> 
<td>Kelly Johnson</td>

<td>614</td>

<td>.287</td>

<td>.349</td> 
<td>.446</td>

<td>108</td> 
</tr> 
<tr> 
<td>Whitey Kurowski</td>

<td>625</td>

<td>.270</td>

<td>.341</td> 
<td>.449</td>

<td>119</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Bret Boone</td>

<td>570</td>

<td>.267</td>

<td>.326</td> 
<td>.429</td>

<td>98</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Ronnie Belliard </td>

<td>410</td>

<td>.264</td>

<td>.335</td> 
<td>.453</td>

<td>103</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Johnny Vergez</td>

<td>507</td>

<td>.271</td>

<td>.332</td> 
<td>.448</td>

<td>122</td> 
</tr>

</tbody></table> 
<br /><p>It seems that the similarity scores 
are really doing their job; I honestly cannot see much difference with 
any of these batting lines. If I was going to pick one, though, 
without adjusting for leagues and parks, I would have to pick Kelly's 
over all others. However, after adjustments, it seems Johnny Vergez 
pulls ahead. That is neither here nor there, since the more interesting 
question is how did all of these players fare <i>after</i> their 26 
year-old campaign. Below are the lines for the same players in 
the very next year (plus Johnson's up to July 3rd): <br />
</p>
<table border="1"> 
<tbody><tr> 
<th>Player Name</th>

<th>PA</th> 
<th>AVG</th>

<th>OBP</th>

<th>SLG</th>

<th>OPS+</th> 
</tr> 
<tr> 
<td>Kelly Johnson</td>

<td>263</td>

<td>.214</td>

<td>.286</td> 
<td>.359</td>

<td>71</td> 
</tr> 
<tr> 
<td>Whitey Kurowski</td>

<td>573</td>

<td>.323</td>

<td>.383</td> 
<td>.511</td>

<td>144</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Bret Boone</td>

<td>568</td>

<td>.233</td>

<td>.275</td> 
<td>.354</td>

<td>64</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Ronnie Belliard </td>

<td>317</td>

<td>.211</td>

<td>.257</td> 
<td>.287</td>

<td>45</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Johnny Vergez</td>

<td>353</td>

<td>.200</td>

<td>.269</td> 
<td>.328</td>

<td>60</td> 
</tr>

</tbody></table> 
<br /><p>Wow! Excluding Kurowski's tremendous 
season at the age of 27<a href="#5" name="5a">[5]</a>, the rest of the comparable players had terrible 
years. In fact, Kelly Johnson's current line is <i>better</i> 
than what the other three players put up when they were 27 years-old. 
Maybe Kelly Johnson's off year isn't such an anomaly. Could it 
be that he bounces back and goes on having a prosperous career? 
To answer that question, we should continue to look at the three comparable 
players who also had off years at 27. Here are those three player's 
cumulative batting lines <i>after</i> their 27 year-old campaign<a href="#6" name="6a">[6]</a>: <br />
</p><br />
<table border="1"> 
<tbody><tr> 
<th>Player Name</th>

<th># Seasons</th>

<th>PA</th> 
<th>AVG</th>

<th>OBP</th>

<th>SLG</th>

<th>OPS+</th> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Bret Boone</td>

<td>9</td>

<td>5433</td>

<td>.267</td>

<td>.330</td> 
<td>.452</td>

<td>105</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Ronnie Belliard <a href="#7" name="7a">[7]</a></td>

<td>7</td>

<td>3334</td>

<td>.278</td>

<td>.335</td> 
<td>.423</td>

<td>98</td> 
</tr>

<tr> 
<td>Johnny Vergez</td>

<td>2</td>

<td>664</td>

<td>.248</td>

<td>.310</td> 
<td>.671</td>

<td>73</td> 
</tr>

</tbody></table> 
<p><br />Bret Boone went on to have a terrific 
career, posting 4 seasons with an OPS+ of more than 100. Plus, 
he captured two silver sluggers, one of which he won during his 2001 
campaign for the Mariners where he put up the line .331/.372/.578, three 
All-Star appearances, and four Gold Gloves. As for Ron, he bounced 
back and became a very solid player. While his career is currently 
in peril at the age of 34, he still had 6 above-average offensive years 
after the age of 27. With Johnny Vergez, we observe a completely 
different story. Poor Johnny did not recover from his mediocre 
27 year-old season. Vergez bounced slightly back, getting his 
OBP to an acceptable .312 (remember, this was 1935), but it wouldn't 
matter. He was only able to stick around in baseball for another 
2 years. <br /></p>
<p>There we have it. Two players 
who came storming back after poor seasons at the age of 27 and one hitter 
that failed to put it all together. Which road do I believe Kelly 
Johnson will take? I don't know, but I do not think that is the 
answer we are to take from this analysis. Even if he continues 
this atrocity in the batting box, he was promising enough as a young 
kid. Now, I sincerely doubt that Kelly ever wins the prestigious 
fielding award<a href="#8" name="8a">[8]</a> like Bret Boone, so it must be hard for Bobby to trot 
him out there every night, but we can look to Ron Belliard for an example 
of just that. I find it hard to make argument that Belliard was 
kept in because of his defense; he was never spectacular at second base. 
Yet he still turned it around.</p><p>I am not saying Kelly is going 
to be a great player. Instead, my claim is that Kelly has the 
potential to be a great player, an upside not too many players, much 
less second basemen, have. By giving KJ the opportunity, we'll 
get to see which road he decides to take. <br /></p>
<p><b>UPDATE</b>: Of course, Kelly is now 
officially on the 15-day DL, just in time for this article! For 
cereal though, I think it should do him some good. It'll 
prevent him from feeling like he lost the starting job, Bobby won't 
necessarily feel guilty that he has to keep telling him to ride the 
bench, and he can recover from what ails him<a href="#9" name="9a">[9]</a>. Hopefully, when 
he comes back, he'll get another chance.&nbsp;</p><br /><b>Footnotes</b><br /><br />
<p><a href="#1a" name="1">[1]</a> I got over those problems through 
this fantastic <a href="http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/151580/?searchterm=Hooked+on+Monkey+Fonics" target="_blank">program</a>, just in case there are others out there with 
similar needs.</p>
<p><a href="#2a" name="2">[2]</a> It might not be a choice, but his 
destiny as a player. Regardless, he, or at least his ability, 
does have a say in the outcome.</p>
<p><a href="#3a" name="3">[3]</a> I took this directly from Kelly 
Johnson's player page on <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml">Baseball-Reference.com</a>.</p>
<p><a href="#4a" name="4">[4]</a> 100 * <a href="#%20" name="">[OBP/lg * OBP + SLG/lg * 
SLG - 1]</a>. This is also adjusted for a player's ballpark.</p>
<p><a href="#5a" name="5">[5]</a> Whitey hit 21 homers, drove in 
102, scored 84 runs, and did it all in the matter of 133 games. 
That's probably why he was fifth in the MVP voting that year.</p>
<p><a href="#6a" name="6">[6]</a> FYI, Baseball-Reference.com has 
an amazing feature where you can simply select all the seasons you are 
interested in for a certain player and look at their batting stats over 
those seasons. Sweet.</p>
<p><a href="#7a" name="7">[7]</a> I included what Ron Belliard had 
done so far this year for the Nationals.</p>
<p><a href="#8a" name="8">[8]</a> This year, UZR has him pegged as 
a slightly above average fielder, but he was markedly below average 
the two years before.</p>
<p><a href="#9a" name="9">[9]</a> Honestly, I doubt there is anything 
wrong. Too often these days when a player is doing poorly, teams 
throw them on the DL. It's like forcing someone to take paid vacation, 
except it has a more dire name (and cool acronym).</p>


</div>

</div>
]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/james-piette-kelly-johnsons-proverbial-fork-in-the-road.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:01:02 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Tom Gieryn: News and Notes Plus July 2 recap</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<i>Sorry for the lateness of this post, I've been in transit all day. Here's Tom's game recap.</i><br /><br /><b>July 2 recap</b><br /><br />Four pretty big news items to note today:<br /><br />First, Tommy Hanson was named <a href="http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090702&amp;content_id=5662930&amp;vkey=news_atl&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=atl">Rookie of the Month for June</a>. 
Perhaps he will prove to be the rare rookie that lives up to the
hype...knock on wood. He's looked better and better though, as the
year has gone on. You could easily make the case that with Kawakami
pitching very well of late (3.18 ERA in his last ten starts), and
Hanson up, that the Braves have five legitimate top-of-the-rotation
starters. <br /><br />Second, we're on track to getting yet another top-end
starter, as the Myrtle Beach Sun-News is reporting that Tim Hudson <a href="http://www.thesunnews.com/sports/story/965083.html">is
tentatively scheduled</a> to make a rehab start for the Pelicans on July
19th, in about two weeks. <br /><br />Third, Bill Shanks of scout.com <a href="http://www.scout.com/a.z?s=143&amp;p=2&amp;c=876744">is reporting</a>
that Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward have been promoted to
Mississippi. It's great to see Salt 'n' Pepper (as they are
affectionately known) get their shot at the upper levels. Kevin
Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has said that he thinks Heyward will
be ready for The Show sometime during the 2010 season, and this
promotion certainly puts him on the fast track. I'll keep an eye out
for "residual promotions" (i.e., who gets moved up from Rome to take
their spots at Myrtle Beach). Some of the guys raking at Danville
might get to move up to full season ball too.<br /><br />Fourth, Kelly Johnson <a href="http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/stories/2009/07/03/braves_johnson_injury.html">has been sent to the DL</a>
with tendinitis. Brooks Conrad, who was hitting .259/.256/.413 at
Gwinnett, has been called up to take his place on the roster.<br /><br />Tom's Take: This looks sort of like an excuse to make Martin Prado the
starter without having to "bench" KJ. Perhaps Johnson is dealing with
a little nagging something that likely wouldn't be DL-worthy if he was
hitting. But since he's not, they'll let him take a couple weeks to
get 100% healthy and perhaps work on some things without worrying about
playing in games. I can't say I'm a big Conrad fan; he's nothing
special as a defender on the middle infield, and while his long swing
generates some pop, it also generates a healthy dose of strikeouts. I
think he's a Quad-A player, and I don't think he's going to give the
Braves any reason to keep him around once Infante and/or Johnson are
once again field-worthy.<br /><b><br />Braves 5, Phillies 2</b><br /><br /><b>MVP</b>:
Matt Diaz. He pretty much wins MVP because of one play (see below),
though he added a single and a stolen base to solidify his case.<br /><b>LVP</b>:
Gregor Blanco. Two groundouts with runners in scoring position when the
game was tied (including one with the bases loaded and 2 out in the
second inning) killed him, and it didn't help that he was 0-for-4
either.<br /><b>MIP</b>: Matt Diaz's RBI double with one out in the eighth. The
double untied the game, to give the Braves a 3-2 lead late. 
Interesting to note that all three MIPs in this Phillies sweep have
been by people that weren't "regulars" to start the year (two by Prado,
this by Diaz).<br /><b>UotG</b>: Bullpen. Kudos to O'Flaherty, Moylan, Soriano and Gonzalez for 3 2/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball in a tight game.<br /><br /><b>Minors</b><br /><b>Gwinnett</b>:
Multi-hit games for Barbaro "do I do anything but rake?" Canizares,
J.C. "is there any position I can't play?" Holt, and Brandon "can I
really be any worse than Jeff Francoeur?" Jones.<br /><br /><b>Mississippi</b>: Very
little offense for either team in this game, as Canadian lefty Scott
Diamond shut down the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx (great team name
there). He didn't allow a hit until the fifth, and wound up with eight
innings of shutout baseball, allowing two hits and three walks while
striking out eight. Diamond has never been a very heralded prospect
but he's left-handed (another one? really?) and he keeps getting the
job done.<br /><br /><b>Myrtle Beach</b>: Jason Heyward had two hits and two RBIs in
what was hopefully his final game at the Beach, and Cody Johnson added
a double, his 21st homer (a grand slam, no less) and five ribbies. 
Jose Ortegano (yet another lefty with quality stuff) got the start but
went just two innings, though he allowed only one hit and no
runs...must be an injury there, hopefully not serious. Last year's
fifth-round pick out of UVA, Jacob Thompson, came on and tossed seven
innings of one-run ball in relief, allowing just three hits (including
a homer) while walking two and striking out eight. Thompson was a
little erratic in college, and that has carried over to the pros, but
he obviously has the talent to succeed.<br /><br /><b>Rome</b>: Ugh...the R-Braves
managed just two hits all night, and Zeke Spruill had a rough five
innings (seven hits, five runs, three earned, a HR allowed).<br /><br /><b>Danville</b>: Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg just keeps on keeping on, as he went 2-for-4 again to <span style="font-style: italic;">lower</span>
his average to .543 on the year. A couple of late-round pitchers
pitched well in this game; Jeff Lorick, a 20th rounder out of UVA,
struck out six in four innings and Tyrelle Harris, the 19th-round pick
out of the University of Tennessee, K'd four in three innings.<br />GCL:
It finally stops raining enough for the GCL Braves to play, so instead
the team decides to make it rain homers. Alberto Odreman, who was
named the Braves' hitter of the year in the Dominican Summer League
last year, has come stateside to hit five homers in as many games. 
Seventeen-year-old bonus-baby Panamanian catcher Christian Betancourt
had three hits including a homer. Last year's 15th-round pick Layton
Hiller (who has good power), and this year's 8th-round pick Kyle Rose
(who's more known for great speed) also added jacks in the game. Also
notable is that Ernesto Mejia, who had something of a breakout year as
Myrtle Beach's first baseman last year, started his rehab assignment
after having offseason surgery to repair a torn ACL.<br /><br />The other
well-regarded signee from last year's international crop, lefty Carlos
Perez, got the start and tossed three scoreless innings while striking
out four and walking just one, and Aaron Northcraft, the Braves'
10th-round pick out of a California high school, who had offers from
some major colleges including USC, struck out two in two perfect
innings.
]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/tom-gieryn-news-and-notes-plus-july-2-recap.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:52:15 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Tom Gieryn: July 1 Game Recap</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<i>More from Tom.</i><br /><br /><b>Braves 11, Phillies 1</b><br /><br /><b>MVP</b>: Jair Jurrjens. Seven innings, no earned runs gets him the player of the game nod.<br /><br /><b>LVP</b>: Diory Hernandez. But...but...he hit a home run, how can he be LVP? Well, first, this was a game where nobody really played badly, and second, he hit his homer when it was already 9-1. The homer is outweighed by a leadoff infield fly in the third and a GIDP in the fourth, when the score was still relatively close.<br /><br /><b>MIP</b>: Martin Prado's third-inning double with men on first and second and one out, scoring two runs. In a game as one-sided as this one was, the first runs are almost always the most important.<br /><br /><b>UotG</b>: Offense. Second day in a row the bats have shown up.<br /><br /><b>Minors</b><br /><br /><b>Mississippi</b>: Matt Young went 3-for-4 with a double and a triple; he's way too old to still be playing at Double-A, but he was named to the Southern League All-Star team for the second straight year and he's hit.347/.475/.516 over the last month. He can play just about any position that doesn't involve pitching or wearing a mask, so he might help somebody someday as a 25th man. Not bad for a guy that went undrafted out of the University of New Mexico. For the record, journeyman catcher J.C. Boscan and pitcher Kyle Cofield are Mississippi's two other All-Stars. Outfielder Willie Cabrera, who started to creep on the prospect scene at Myrtle Beach last year, hitting .298/.398/.477 in the past 28 days, and he went 2-for-4. Nice to see our old (if temperamental) friend Eric Campbell with a two-hit night as well.<br /><br />Promising Mexican lefty Edgar Osuna continues to struggle after being promoted, and he lasted just 4 2/3 innings in this start, allowing two homers. He's still young yet, however. The bullpen played some nice pick-me-up, with righties Brent Butts and Cory Gearrin and lefty Brian Dumesnil tossing 5 1/3 scoreless innings; any or all of those guys could end up in the middle of somebody's bullpen someday. I've always been kind of a closet Dumesnil fan, as he's a guy the Braves picked up off the scrap heap after he had Tommy John surgery; he's pretty old at 25 and he's Canadian, but left-handed relievers with mid-90s heat don't come around every day.<br /><br /><b>Myrtle Beach</b>: Cody Johnson got on base three times, twice by walk to keep up his Three True Outcomes goodness (though that K rate is scary and could cause major problems at higher levels, since prospects tend to lose the walks and keep the strikeouts as they move up; then again, there aren't many players with Cody's pure power). Jesus Sucre had two more hits also.<br /><br />Cole Rohrbough continues to frustrate, as he shows flashes of brilliance but can't seem to get results. Six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings would be pretty good had he not also walked three, allowed a homer and five earned runs. He obviously has the stuff to succeed, but the Carolina League is a pitcher's dream (especially Myrtle Beach's stadium), so he ought to be doing better than a 5.27 ERA.<br /><br /><b>Rome</b>: Not much to report here. Yet another weak offensive day for an offense that doesn't possess much talent, and a rough start for under-the-radar but nonetheless promising lefty Dimaster (not to be confused with Randall) Delgado.<br /><br /><b>Danville</b>: Adam Milligan continues to rake, posting yet another multi-hit game to bring his line to .439/.500/.756 for the year so far, and Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg keeps abusing baseballs, as he went 4-for-4 to raise his season averages to a ridiculous .548/.583/.903 in 31 PAs. Tyler Stovall, last year's third overall pick for the Braves, had a weird start, tossing 4 1/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball while walking--count 'em--seven men. 2009 fifth-rounder Thomas Berryhill, who touches 98 on the gun, tossed a perfect ninth for the save.<br />]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/tom-gieryn-july-1-game-recap.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:43:58 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Tom Gieryn: Daily Tidbits, Latin American Prospects and Yunel Trade Possibilities?</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<i>More from Tom:</i><br /><br />All right, a couple tidbits from the morning's news that bear worth sharing.<br /><br />First,
the Braves are as active as ever in this year's international market.&nbsp;
They haven't been rumored in connection to any of the super-hyped Latin
American prospects, but we're now getting some reports of some
lower-bonus guys they might be looking at.&nbsp; Baseball America reports
the Braves' are hot on the trail of lefty Edgar Ferreira, who can hit
93-94 MPH with his fastball.&nbsp; Jorge Arangure of ESPN <a href="http://twitter.com/jorgearangure/status/2413008645">tweets</a> that
Braves' international scouting director Johnny Almaraz watched the
workout of shortstop Humberto Valor, who <a href="http://twitter.com/jorgearangure/status/2408566595">one scout called</a> the "<span><span>best position player prospect in Venezuela."&nbsp; His bonus could touch $2 million.<br /><br />Also, Ben Nicholson-Smith of <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/olney-on-pirates-marlins-escobar.html">MLB Trade Rumors</a> tells us that <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster">Buster Olney</a> is reporting on ESPN Insider that the Braves "</span></span><span>are willing to trade Yunel Escobar<strong></strong>
for a good hitter."&nbsp; It seems Yunel has really fallen out of favor in
the Atlanta clubhouse, and it's getting to the point where I really
wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt at some point, as he has plenty
of trade value.&nbsp; Not sure who the Braves would use to replace him at
shortstop, but perhaps such a move could be the "wake-up call" move
that many fans have been wanting to see to jumpstart the team.</span> ]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/tom-gieryn-daily-tidbits-latin-american-prospects-and-yunel-trade-possibilities.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:05:00 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Introducing Tom Gieryn, Our New Writer</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<div>

 <p><i>For our second introduction in as many days, allow me to present the other winner of the writing contest, Tom Gieryn. I'll let him take it away from here! </i><br /></p><p>Greetings, Chop-n-Change denizens...my 
name is Tom Gieryn, and I'll be the <i>other</i> new guy joining the 
estimable C-n-C blogging team. Many of you know me as "Tom" 
from the comments, and I look forward to bringing the same objective 
perspective to the front page. <br /></p>
<p>One of the things we're going 
to try to start over here (now that we're fully staffed) is a nightly 
recap of the day in BraveWorld. We'll always start our evening 
tour in the lovely city of Atlanta, but we'll also make stops across 
the Southeast, in beautiful destinations like Pearl, Mississippi and 
Danville, Virginia to visit the various Braves minor-league affiliates 
and see what they've been up to.&nbsp;</p>
<p>First things first: the big 
club. Every night, we'll of course give you the score, but as 
you expect from C-n-C, we don't stop at the easy stuff. We're 
also going to try to glean some game-by-game insight by looking at FanGraphs' 
excellent win probability data. <br /></p><p><font style="font-size: 0.85em;">(To get us started, a little primer 
on Win Probability Added; if you've seen this drill before, skip down below. 
WPA is a metric that measures each player's direct 
impact on the team's chances to win a given game. Based on years 
of play-by-play data, we have matrices that show the probability that 
a given team will go on to win a given game depending on the situation -- which is defined by the inning, the number of outs, the score, and 
how many runners are on which bases. <br /></font></p><p><font style="font-size: 0.85em;">In the simplest example, 
in the top of the first with no outs, no runners and a 0-0 score, each 
team has a 50% chance to win. If the leadoff guy hits a home run, 
we go look back at all the games where that situation has come up (top 
1, 1-0 score, no outs, no runners), and see how often the team leading 
1-0 actually went on to win the game: that gives us a probability that 
either team will wind up victorious. And baseball is a zero-sum 
game -- i.e., as good as that homer is for the team that hit it, it's 
equally <i>bad</i> for the other team. <br /></font></p><p><font style="font-size: 0.85em;">So, we attribute the <i>
change</i> in probability to the hitter and the pitcher. If the 
team's chance to win goes from 50% to 60% because of the leadoff homer, 
then the hitter gets a +0.10 and the pitcher gets a -0.10. This 
is going to give major credit for hitting or pitching in clutch situations; 
a pitcher who throws nine shutout innings to win 1-0 is going to have 
a far higher WPA than a pitcher who tosses a shutout but gets tons of 
run support. As a result, WPA is not--repeat, NOT--a metric 
to evaluate future performance, since obviously those two hypothetical 
shutouts require equal talent from the pitcher. But if you're 
trying to look back at which shutout was more valuable, obviously the 
"clutch" shutout is.)</font><br /></p>
<p>So, with that out of the way, 
here's what info we'll bring you after every game: <br />
</p>
<p><b>MVP</b>: This will be the player 
with the highest WPA total for the game. Whose contributions did 
the most to help the Braves win? Even in a loss, we'll look 
at whose fault it <i>wasn't</i>. <br /></p>
<p><b>LVP</b>: This player had the lowest 
WPA total for the game. For a win, we won in spite of this guy; 
for a loss, he's to blame the most. <br /></p>
<p><b>MIP</b>: This stands for Most Important 
Play. This is the <i>single play</i> with the highest change in 
win probability. This play was the one that did the most to help 
one team or the other put the game away, and there will be some surprises 
sometimes. In a 1-0 game, you'd think the single run would be 
the biggest factor, but sometimes you'll find that the MIP was a time 
when the losing team, say, grounded into a double play with the bases 
loaded and one out. <br /></p>
<p><b>UotG</b>: I really need a better 
acronym for this (suggestions welcome). This is "Unit of the 
Game," for lack of a better term. For this, I split the team 
into offense, starting pitcher, and bullpen. I total up the WPA 
for each of those groups, and name the unit who contributed most to the 
result (in a win, who was best; in a loss, who was worst). This 
way we'll be able to look at trends across many games, and identify 
strengths and problem spots. <br /></p>
<p>Then we'll go around the 
minors, and I'll give a tidbit or two from each minor-league team 
that played on any given night. I see no reason to give scores, 
as what I'm most concerned about is the commentary: who played well 
or didn't?&nbsp;</p>
<p>So, without further ado...</p><p><b>Around 
BraveWorld June 30<sup>th</sup>:</b><br /></p>
<p><b>Braves 5, Phillies 4</b> (10 inn.) <br />
</p>
<p>This one was a roller coaster, 
folks. Braves took a 3-2 lead into the eighth after a solid six 
innings from Derek Lowe, but the Phils got back-to-back solo shots from 
John Mayberry Jr. and Pedro Feliz to put the Phillies up 4-3. <br />
</p>
<p><b>MVP</b>: Martin Prado. 
The guy had a WPA of .668 for this game. In every game, the winning 
team has a +0.5, and the losers get a -0.5, so a 0.668 figure means 
that Prado not only did enough to win the game by himself, but his contributions 
were enough to also erase the negative contributions of some of his 
teammates. <br /></p><p>Prado went 4-for-5 and drove in four of the Braves' 
five runs: a third-inning RBI single to tie the game at one, a fifth-inning 
solo homer to tie the game at two, an eighth-inning, two-out RBI double 
to tie the game at four after the Phillies had taken the lead in the 
top of the inning, and the walk-off RBI single off the indomitable Chan 
Ho Park in the tenth. That's about as impressive of a performance 
as you'll ever see -- the Braves kept trying to give the game away, 
but Prado just wouldn't let them do it. Even as big of a KJ 
fan as I am, we need to find a way to get this guy's stick into the 
lineup more often. <br /></p>
<p><b>LVP</b>: Mike Gonzalez. 
Took a 3-2 lead into the eighth and gave up a pair of home runs to put 
the Phillies ahead. (With his WPA of -0.427, he nearly <i>lost</i> 
this game single-handedly. He owes his teammates a drink for covering 
his back.) <br /></p>
<p><b>MIP</b>: Prado's RBI double 
with two outs in the eighth, tying the game at four. Remember 
what I said about surprises? The MIP is not the walk-off hit, 
because that came with no outs in a situation where the Braves didn't 
have to get a hit <i>right then</i>. But in the eighth, with two 
outs and down a run, the Braves had their backs against the wall, and 
Martin delivered. <br /></p>
<p><b>UotG</b>: Offense. 
For all the grief our offense has taken lately, they came to play tonight. 
Pitchers kept giving the Phillies runs, but the offense kept getting 
them right back.&nbsp;</p></div>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/07/introducing-tom-gieryn-our-new-writer.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Introducing James Piette, Our New Writer</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p><i>Our writer's contest actually had two winners. Today, we're introducing James Piette, one of the two Charlie Buckets. Later this week we'll introduce our other winner, Tom, whom many of you may know from the comment threads. I'm posting this under my name because we're waiting for the tech support guys to get him his own login and stuff. Everything below the italics is all James.</i><br /></p><p>Before I start rambling on and on with numbers, claims, and cultural references, I think it is important that I introduce myself. My name is James Piette and I have been an avid Braves' fan since back in the days when Fred <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_McGriff">"Fire Dog"</a> McGriff was just acquired and the Tomahawk Chop was still <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIy2e-qx3aw">intimidating</a>.<a name="1a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#1">[1]</a> My current occupation is a 3rd year PhD student in Statistics at the Wharton School of Business, which makes me one of the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXvv5sTqNa4">worst kind of people</a>. My focus, which regrettably is not the most respected in academia, is entirely on sports, whether it be basketball, cricket, or hockey, but my true passion is in baseball. <br /></p><p>Somehow, I impressed Alex and Kristi<a name="2a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#2">[2]</a> enough to give me a shot as a writer for Chop-n-Change. I plan to post relatively frequently focusing mainly on developing stories surrounding the Braves', players who are under/over-performing, specific issues related to the team's strengths and weaknesses, and anything in between. Due to my incredibly geeky nature, these posts will inevitably be full of tirades lambasting and praising trades, players, front offices, etc., via statistical evidence, along with a little (hopefully) witty rhetoric. I plan on devoting ample time to each post's comments, as well. If I start becoming too obscure and out-of-touch, feel free to bring me back down to Earth through your hate.</p><p> As this is my first post, I feel it is appropriate to write about the question that I most often get asked when I explain to Northeners that I am not a Sox/Yankees/Mets/Phillies fan: What chance do you give the Braves to make the playoffs? Before looking at existing computer predictions, let's take a look at the standings. At 35 - 40, Atlanta is 5.0 games back of the Phillies. While plenty of teams in baseball's history have made more impressive pushes to get into the playoffs, our chances would appear to be dwindling fast.</p><p> One might suggest we have gotten unlucky, but that does not appear to be the case. Our luck score, or our current number of wins minus the Pythagorean-formulated number of wins<a name="3a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#3">[3]</a>, is 0 this year, compared to last year when it was -6. If luck isn't the case, is it simply the Braves' are not good enough to win the division title?</p><p> My next step when evaluating this question is to look to Baseball Prospectus' <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php">postseason odds</a>, a page with computer predictions of postseason odds for every team. They list three sets of probabilities for each team making the playoffs, breaking each down into the expected number of wins and losses, the actual winning percentage of each team, and the chance of being crowned the division champion or wild card. I've decided ELO-adjusted is completely out of their mind<a name="4a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#4">[4]</a> and the original version is not adjusted for current roster<a name="5a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#5">[5]</a>, so I am sticking with the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php">PECOTA-adjusted odds</a>.<a name="6a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#6">[6]</a></p><p> You'll note that our current chance of getting into the playoffs is about 25.6%, which breaks down into 20.9% odds at winning the division and 4.7% probability of winning the wild card. That is pretty good, considering the lead Philadelphia has. I would have pegged it around 20% myself, but I suppose this is why I am the eternal pessimist. However, this is not the most surprising number on the page. The Braves' Pct3, or the expected winning percentage, is 0.546, which, relative to the rest of the NL, is the 2nd best such number behind the Dodgers at 0.582. That is, the Braves' have the 2nd highest expected winning percentage, a higher value than any other team in the NL East. I'll let that sink in before continuing on.</p><p> Perhaps this doesn't come as a surprise to most of you. Kudos to you. For those of you who are in my shoes banging your head against the wall every time our outfield <a href="http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/5/23/884805/failcoeur-t-shirt-on-sale-contest">fails</a>, this should come as a sigh of relief. I specifically remember this wasn't the case a month ago, but with all of the injuries to the Mets and the ineptitude of Philly pitching, it does not seem like too much of a stretch. Because I am a complete nerd, I decided to see what our chances of winning the division would have been if each team in the division started with their current Pct3 (i.e. for 6/29). After running 1,000,000 simulations<a name="7a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#7">[7]</a>, where I consider each team to have started the season with June 29<sup>th</sup>'s posted, PECOTA-adjusted, expected winning percentages and play out 162 games, I got the following results for the approximate probability of each team winning the division<a name="8a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#8">[8]</a>:</p><p>Braves: 0.463<br />Phillies: 0.397<br />Mets: 0.098<br />Marlins: 0.042<br />Nationals: 0.000</p><p> To have a 46.3% probability of winning the division title is a huge accomplishment for any team. While the Phillies would still have a substantial chance of taking the crown, considering how close 0.541, the Phillies' Pct3, and 0.546 are, it is a big discrepancy. Of course, this isn't even taking into account the wild card, which I did simultaneously using the same simulations.<a name="9a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#9">[9]</a> The wild card was won by the Braves' 11.6% of the time; this is fairly often when conditioning on them being eligible to win it (i.e. did not win the division).<a name="10a" href="introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html#10">[10]</a> Thus, according to my simulations, the Braves' playoff chances if we were to flashback in time to April 5th, but using current rosters and player progressions, then we have a 57.8% probability of making it to the playoffs.</p><p> While that whole venture into exploiting PECOTA's abilities was exhausting, it puts up a few good points that I will end with. The first being that the Braves pitching depth is great, while the Phillies and the Mets are really suffering from their <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8721632/Moyer-pitched-despite-severe-stomach-virus">respective</a> <a href="http://www.nypost.com/seven/05052009/sports/mets/mets_banish_ollie_to_bullpen_167732.htm">garbage</a> they picked up this summer. Second, the Braves are still in this playoff race. With Tim Hudson coming back soon after the All-Star break and a front office that is almost always engaging in positive dealings, I think it's safe to say that our expected winning percentage will only go up. Lastly, if you work/live with any Phillies/Mets fans, a feeling I can relate to so well being in Philadelphia, then the next time they bring up Atlanta's fortune this year, you'll know that your team is the best team, right now, in the NL East. Unless either team acquires a star player. In that case, just cry loudly and they'll leave you alone.</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/06/introducing-james-piette-our-new-writer.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Atlanta Braves</category>
            
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">james piette</category>
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:05:00 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>How to Enjoy a Game at The Ted</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>Every once in awhile here on Chop 'n Change we do a fun, silly post just to lighten things up.&nbsp; Just to highlight a few, I've done <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2008/02/to-the-braves-will-you-be-my-valentine.html">To The Braves: Will You Be My Valentine?</a>, <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2008/01/the-10-commandments-of-attending-a-baseball-game.html">The Ten Commandments of Attending a Baseball Game</a>, and Alex did <a href="http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2008/02/atlanta-braves-the-movie.html">Atlanta Braves: The Movie</a>.&nbsp; We usually resort to these types of posts in the offseason when things are slow, but since I'll be on vacation by the time you read this, I was in the mood for something fun and admittedly random.</p>
<p>First, I'd like to provide you with my baseball playlist.&nbsp; I created this before I left to drive down to Spring Training this year have listened to it before every game I've attended this year.&nbsp; Just really gets me in the mood for some baseball!&nbsp; I welcome all suggestions for additions to the playlist, as I'm sure I've missed some good ones!</p>
<p>1.&nbsp; <strong>Centerfield</strong> by John Fogerty (THE classic baseball song after Take Me Out to the Ballgame)</p>
<p>2.&nbsp; <strong>Cheap Seats</strong> by Alabama (another natural choice)</p>
<p>3.&nbsp; <strong>Taking Care of Business</strong> by B.T.A. (Does anyone else remember the Taking Care of Pittsburgh spoof that was done back in '91 by Fox 97 here in Atlanta?&nbsp; I have it on tape and have been trying to acquire the technology to upload the song for you all!)</p>
<p>4.&nbsp; <strong>Fortunate Son</strong> by CCR&nbsp;(just seems to come on a lot at games)</p>
<p>5.&nbsp; <strong>Rock'n Me</strong> by the Steve Miller Band (again, seems to come on a lot at games)</p>
<p>6.&nbsp; <strong>Start Me Up</strong> by the Rolling Stones (another classic played at games)</p>
<p>7.&nbsp; <strong>You Shook Me All Night Long</strong> by AC/DC (yet another classic played at games)</p>
<p>8.&nbsp; <strong>Crazy Train</strong> by Ozzy Osbourne (I'm sure most of you know Chipper used this song for years as his at-bat song)</p>
<p>9.&nbsp; <strong>What I Like About You</strong> by The Romantics (again, played at a lot of games)</p>
<p>10.&nbsp; <strong>Sweet Caroline</strong> by Neil Diamond (a tribute to the Red Sox, my other love)</p>
<p>11.&nbsp; <strong>Hells Bells</strong> by AC/DC (a tribute to John Smoltz and his&nbsp;days as the Braves closer, although I still never understood why that was his song because it doesn't really seem to fit him)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>And in other randomness, here is my guide to eating at The Ted:</p>
<p><strong>Peachtree Pizza:</strong> found all over the stadium, this is the most recent version of pizza available at the stadium.&nbsp; I could seriously eat pizza everyday, so I've tried every version of pizza available at the stadium over the years and this ranks in the top two.&nbsp; They have huge slices and they're pretty good as long as you get them when they're fresh.</p>
<p><strong>Chick-Fil-A</strong>: my favorite Atlanta staple finally made it to The Ted, replacing a fledging Moe's on the 100 level close to the plaza.&nbsp; Although a&nbsp;bit more pricey than the ones you find around town, the quality is the same.&nbsp; If you want fries, nuggets or wraps, you'll need to hit the one on the 100 level just off the plaza going towards the first base side of The Ted.&nbsp; If you're only looking for the classic sandwich, you can find that on the 200 level not too far from home plate in a tent, on the 400 level around first base or being sold in the stands.&nbsp; </p>
<p><strong>The Chop House</strong>: a&nbsp;full-service restaurant located just off the plaza above right field, The Chop House has become a huge fan favorite at The Ted.&nbsp; My brother goes for the hot wings and my friends love to stand against the railing and watch the game while grabbing a beer.&nbsp; Some fans never make it to their seats, instead choosing to watch the game from the railing.&nbsp; You'll need to arrive early if you want to grab a spot with a view from The Chop House for the game.&nbsp; As far as the food goes, it's fairly good although pricier than your other concessions.&nbsp; </p>
<p><strong>The 755 Club</strong>: featuring a buffet, a sports bar and a menu you can order from, the 755 Club is a members-only restaurant above left field with floor to ceiling glass windows overlooking the field.&nbsp; If you get there early, there are also tables out on a patio overlooking the field.&nbsp; Don't let the members-only part scare you off - there are always plenty of passes for sale on eBay and Craigslist if you want to try it out!&nbsp; I'm more of a baseball traditionalist though and prefer to grab something from the concession stand to eat in my seat while I watch batting practice.&nbsp; I have had some delightful meals at the buffet in the past though.</p>
<p><strong>Smokehouse BBQ</strong>: formerly Skip &amp; Pete's BBQ, this is located right in the plaza and features ribs, pulled pork, pulled chicken, beef brisket and turkey legs along with accompanying sides.&nbsp; It's not really my style, but my father frequents it.&nbsp; I hate that they renamed it after Skip passed away and Pete retired, but maybe it's what those guys wanted.</p>
<p><strong>Tomahawk Tavern</strong>: last but not least, if you're looking for a frozen adult beverage, hit up Tomahawk Tavern at&nbsp;Sections 120, 122 or 235 for a Tomarita.&nbsp; They also feature a variety of beers and wines.</p>
<p>Other concessions around the park have the usual ballpark fare.&nbsp; If you're one of those who doesn't care for the footlong hotdogs you may have trouble locating the "normal" size ones at Turner Field.&nbsp; We canvassed the ballpark for them this week and located them just outside Section 412.&nbsp; As an added bonus, these shorter dogs are Hebrew National hotdogs for those looking for a kosher dog.</p>
<p>I hear there are some non-traditional selections in the Lexus Level if anyone wants to comment on those.&nbsp; Personally, I don't like to sit in the Lexus Level and haven't done so in years, so I can't provide much guidance there.</p>
<p>I'm interested to hear other opinions and suggestions for Braves game-related traditions, treats or other interesting facts!</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/06/how-to-enjoy-a-game-at-the-ted.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Atlanta Braves</category>
            
            
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Turner Field</category>
            
            <pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:37:18 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Six Games in Six Days: Vazquez Pitches a Gem but No Win</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>Javier Vazquez had one of his strongest outings this season and the Braves offense couldn't even manage to get one run for him.&nbsp; In a game where I saw his ERA drop from 3.18 to 3.09 out on the screen in left field, Vazquez fell to 5-7 on the year.&nbsp; He pitched 7 2/3 innings and gave up only 6 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 8.&nbsp; O'Flaherty and Soriano finished off the game without allowing another hit.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Yet, I'm having to sit here and tell you about how the Braves lost to the Red Sox by a score of 0-1.&nbsp; While I think the home plate umpire did Vazquez and the Braves&nbsp;huge disservice by failing to call a strikeout on Big Papi in the sixth, allowing the inning to continue until a run was finally scored, the fact remains that you cannot win a game without scoring runs.&nbsp; And you certainly cannot win a game without scoring any runs at all.&nbsp; </p>
<p>The Braves had just four hits yesterday, two from Gregor Blanco who was filling in for the injured Nate McClouth.&nbsp; I'll give them credit and point out that there were only two strikeouts, both on Diory Hernandez.&nbsp; They just couldn't get a ball to fall in a gap, especially when there were runners on base.&nbsp; Speaking of runners on base, the Braves had two stolen bases yesterday.&nbsp; Perhaps not all that noteworthy except that one of them was by Brian McCann.&nbsp; Not at all known for his speed, McCann managed to rack up his fourth stolen base of the year.&nbsp; The element of surprise and the slow nature of Wakefield's pitching were contributors.&nbsp; Nonetheless, I love seeing McCann steal a base!</p>
<p>Today the Braves will send rookie Tommy Hanson (3-0, 3.13 ERA, and&nbsp;the author of our last win) to face Brad Penny (6-2, 4.93).&nbsp; This matchup is certainly the best shot at a win we've had this series, so let's hope we at least manage to avoid the sweep!</p>
<p>I'm leaving town from the game today, so I may not be able to get up the sixth installment of Six Games in Six Days, but I'll certainly try.</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/06/six-games-in-six-days-vazquez-pitches-a-gem-but-no-win.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Atlanta Braves</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Sun, 28 Jun 2009 10:59:51 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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            <title>Six Games in Six Days: You Have to Score Runs to Win</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>I know it sounds pretty basic, but it seems to be the basics that we're lacking. You simply cannot win games if you don't score runs, and scoring one run in the bottom of the ninth isn't exactly what I had in mind. But David Ross' solo homerun in the bottom of the ninth was the only time a Braves player would cross the plate last night. Although they out-hit Boston, they couldn't seem to produce RBIs. </p>
<p>Boston's Josh Beckett and Jair Jurrjens were evenly matched if you look at the boxscore and ignore the runs and earned runs columns. Beckett pitched 7 innings and gave up 6 hits while striking out 6. JJ pitched 8 innings and gave up 7 hits while striking out 6. However, JJ also walked three and gave up 4 runs, 3 of those earned runs. Mike Gonzalez pitched a perfect ninth innings, striking out all three batters he faced. Despite the similarities in pitching performances, the story last night was Boston's ability to post some RBIs and the Braves lack thereof.</p>
<p>As if the third straight loss at home wasn't depressing enough, now I have to tell you about the declining health of our team. Brian McCann sat out last night's game with a "light-headed sensation," but team officials say they're not worried because of the arduous duty he pulled the previous four nights in the Atlanta heat. McCann did come in as a pinch hitter in the ninth doubled off Papelbon, so I expect we'll see him back in the lineup tonight. </p>
<p>Yunel Escobar sat out last night with the sore right hip flexor he's had for about a month now after Cox noticed him having some issues with it in Thursday night's game. I think we were all ready for Escobar to have an night off after his attitude in Thursday night's game. For those who missed it, Escobar made a diving stop on an A-Rod grounder in the fourth but was charged with an error on his throw to first. The television cameras all caught him pointing to the press box and spitting out an expletive. He then stood with his hands on his thighs during the next two pitches, unready for what might come at him next. During a pitching change later in the inning, he continued to sulk with his arms crossed over his chest. We've seen a lot of this attitude lately, and the press has widely covered his refusal to discuss his missteps with the press after the games. Cox indicated, however, that his replacement by Diory Hernandez last night was due to the sore hip and not the sour attitude. No word on whether he'll play today.</p>
<p>And if all that wasn't enough, Nate McClouth strained his left hamstring legging out a bunt in the eighth inning. Okajima had trouble grabbing the ball and McClouth was safe at the bag. Unfortunately, he had to be removed and Gregor Blanco entered in his place. McClouth is listed as day-to-day and could still play today. </p>
<p>Today, the Braves will have to overcome the injuries and sore spots and beat knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield (9-3, 4.47 ERA). Javier Vazquez (5-6, 3.18 ERA) will take the mound for the Braves, looking for a win to tie up his record. Vazquez has pitched better than his record shows, but like the other Braves starters he hasn't gotten the run support he needed. An offensive performance like last night won't get it done, so lets hope the bats are hot today.</p>
<p>In totally unrelated but notable news, Georgia native Melanie Oudin, who was unseeded at Wimbledon, has beaten the #20 and #6 seeds to advance to Week 2. A huge feat for the Marietta native, and one I couldn't resist mentioning!</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://mvn.com/chopnchange/2009/06/six-games-in-six-days-you-have-to-score-runs-to-win.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2009 09:41:17 -0500</pubDate>
	    
	     
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