MVN: Most Valuable Network

I came up with this mathematical formula to roughly, and that's the key word, roughly predict the score for a football contest and it has been very close in the games I've used it in. Sure it has it's flaws which only prove it can't be right always but its flaws prove its accuracy. Odd events during a course of the game can prevent it from being 100% or even 95% right. A quarterback can throw not only one but two interceptions in the end zone (J.T. O'Sullivan against New Orleans, I'll show how that factors into the formula later), injuries can make or break a team, or a potential pro-bowler on a team can have an off day. This formula also can fail when bye weeks are involved because one team may heal numerous top players, giving them a huge edge. The Super Bowl blowouts of the past could never be used. But first I will use it to pick a rough score prediction against the New York Jets.

The formula is this, take the last four games by team A and the opponent, add up the points for team A and the points against the other team, then divide by 8 and you have a guess as to team A's score. Then do the same for the opponent and you have the score. To dig deeper into this, go back and look at the strange and bizarre events in games, minus them out of the score and you can see an even better guess. In San Francisco's last four games they've scored 91 points, the Jets have allowed 81 points. That comes to 21.5 points. And now for the Jets scoring prediction. The Jets have scored 132 points in their past four games, and SF has allowed 83 points in their past four games. That comes to 26.875. So realistically we can expect a score around 27-21 Jets over the Niners. However, if the Niners were to come up with that interception in the end zone off Brett Favre then the score could be different. But also the Jets could get lucky off some big plays and change the score.

According to the formula before the New Orleans Saints game, the score was likely to be 26-24 SF IF you only include the three games beforehand that started the regular season. You take away just one of J.T O'Sullivan's interceptions in the end zone and take away the points NO scored off the turnover, and you can turn a 31-17 game into a 24-24 game. One field goal by SF then makes it 27-24, bordering on 100% accuracy for the prediction. As always, nothing is ever completely accurate but very close.