Kansas City Chiefs Draft Report II: The Trade Down for Maualuga

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November 20, 2008

Kansas City Chiefs Draft Report II: The Trade Down for Maualuga

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Those who have read me for a while know that there are two issues that I am strangely and perhaps controversially passionate about: 1) that the NFL overtime rule is stupid; 2) that the NFL Draft trade chart is stupid.

Let me talk about the latter (though, let me again put in a plug for the "first to 5" overtime rule). I think the NFL draft chart is probably one of the stupidest concepts in the book. It's beyond stupid. I can't even imagine how many draft day trades are nixed because teams are too stubborn to go against the book.

Here's why it's stupid. The Draft Chart assumes that the #1 pick in 2009 carries the same value as the #1 pick in 2008. Okay, I hate playing the hindsight argument, but let me ask you this: going into draft day, who do you value more? Carson Palmer or Alex Smith? Eli Manning or Jake Long? There are players like Carson Palmer and Reggie Bush who enter the draft with a lot of hype and excitement, and then there are years where players like Jake Long and Alex Smith fly to the top of the draft board only because there is nobody better. So if Alex Smith is a far inferior draft day pick than Carson Palmer, then why do we act like they have the same value? Here's a perfect example: can you believe that the trade value for Chris Long was exactly the same as the trade value for Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson? How outrageous!

I don't know why teams are so afraid to trade down and I don't know why teams are afraid to accept anything less than what is written on the draft trade chart. Instead, teams stubbornly cling to this ridiculous notion of Best Player Available (BPA) that has the Detroit Lions taking a wide receiver every single year and the Raiders taking a running back in 2008.

This point is very relevant for the Chiefs. If Matt Stafford is off the board at #2, more than likely the Chiefs will have to either draft a BPA at a position they don't need, reach for a player they do need, or find a way to overrate a flawed player to make him fit into their plans. Never does it occur to a team that their best option is to trade down. Instead, you will hear many draft pundits suggest that the Chiefs should draft a guy like Michael Oher or Andre Smith, nevermind that the move would force the Chiefs to shift Branden Albert to Guard or Right Tackle. Essentially, drafting Oher would be equivalent to using a top 5 pick to land a Guard or Right Tackle, which is ludicrous. Others will demand that the Chiefs draft Brian Orakpo or Sam Bradford, two players that play positions that the Chiefs need, nevermind that both are probably too flawed to be considered top 5 NFL picks.

Here's my take: the Chiefs know exactly which player is going to help them the most, and it's either Rey Maualuga or James Laurinitis. While the Chiefs are a very flawed team, these seem to stand out as the two players who would bar none make the biggest impact on the team. Chances are, neither will be chosen. Not because the Chiefs don't want them, but because they are too afraid to trade down. And so, based on the way the draft is shaping up, the Chiefs will likely end up drafting a player they don't want, pay him a boatload more cash, and lose on the chance to pick up another draft pick or two in the process. All because the Chiefs wanted a 2nd rounder instead of a 3rd rounder and wouldn't budge away from the draft chart .

My theory has always been that you build a draft board not based on BPA, but based on players that you believe will make the biggest impact on your football team. When it comes time to draft, you ask yourself if the top two or three players on YOUR board will likely be available a few picks down. If the answer is "yes", then you trade down, even if that means getting a slightly worse pick in compensation. No, you don't want to screw yourself on a trade, but you also don't turn down an opportunity to get extra picks to get the guy you want anyway.

That looks like that will be the situation in 2009. The Chiefs can trade down and feel pretty comfortable that either Rey Maualuga or James Laurinitis will still be on the board. And guess what, they can probably land an extra 3rd round, maybe 2nd round pick on the side. I realize this is a controversial opinion, but it's one that I truly believe in. I'd rather draft a player I want than jam a round peg into a square hole.

Tags: Chiefs, James Laurinitis, Kansas City Chiefs, Matt Stafford, Michael Oher, NFL, Rey Maualuga

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6 Comments on "Kansas City Chiefs Draft Report II: The Trade Down for Maualuga"

Posted by Ernest, November 20, 2008 5:07 PM

I have a problem drafting anyone from USC.

Posted by Dono, November 20, 2008 6:27 PM

Why not trade down and get Rey Maualuga, move him to SLB. Then with our second and the picks we recieved with the trade take Brandon Spikes whom will be the better for a Cover 2 MLB. Thus solving our LB problem.

Posted by chiefs4life, November 20, 2008 7:10 PM

This is exactly what I have been telling people for months. IMO the best player for the Chiefs this next draft is Laurinitis. Maualaga is great and will be solid as a pro, but I think Laurinitis has the mindset and study skills that will make him great very early in his pro career and keep him there.

Posted by Dr. Paine, November 20, 2008 7:13 PM

It really grinds my gears when people talk about "playing for draft position". I think the Chiefs have demonstrated that they are trying really hard to win games and are not satisfied at all with drafting as highly as possible. I think we will steal a couple of wins late in the year playing spoiler provided we gets some guys on D back starting this weekend against Buffalo. I think we will surprise some people and just may not draft in the top 5. A trade down is much more likely when you are not handcuffed to a top 5 pick when a team has to sell the farm to get into the top 5 as you mentioned with the asinine trade chart. With extra picks, we can fill more holes.

I do disagree (respectfully) about drafting a tackle. If we cannot get out of the pick, I think either of those tackles (especially Smith) would be a good pick. We simply need more lineman, and if we cannot get out of the top 5, we should pull the trigger. Albert was drafted at 15, which is a steal for a quality LT, but not a huge reach for a potentially dominant guard or RT. The pass rush is the worst in NFL history and Peppers or Suggs can be had in FA at the right price. Pass rushers will cost money and we cannot be cheap in pursuit of one.

Maualuga would make the biggest difference as a rookie in the middle of the defense. Rookie LB's have shown throughout history to make the easiest transition to the league and can dominate immediately (Patrick Willis). Maualuga has a great skill set and would bring a nastiness to the LB core that we desperately need.

Posted by ChiefDJ, November 20, 2008 11:13 PM

I don't think teams are afraid to trade down and I don't think teams stick as steadfastly to the trade chart as you make it sound.

You HAVE to try to push for as much compensation as you can get because if other teams see you as a weak negotiator, they will try to take advantage of you not just in this one draft trade but in any dealings you have with them. Even if you aren't really a weak negotiator, it could cause deals in the future to collapse because the team will think that if they just hold out long enough you will cave.

Sometimes you have to take a hard line in negotiations and things fall through and you have to eat what you were trying to trade out of, but it sends the message to teams in other deals that you're willing to go to the limit so if they really want to get a deal done they have to negotiate seriously.

But why would you want to trade down and lose value in the first place? The GM is a representative of the owner and is managing his assets and draft position IS an asset. If he caves just because without trying to get adequate compensation and sets himself up as a pushover that will end up with degradation of assets in other deals. In that case the GM is not returning the full investment to the owner and is not very good at his job.

Posted by Dr. Paine, November 21, 2008 3:08 AM

One thing you have to give Carl credit for: he's a real tough negotiator as evidenced by the Jared Allen trade and his unwillingness to give TG away.

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Kansas City Chiefs Draft Report II: The Trade Down for Maualuga

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