MVN: Most Valuable Network

It's more a protection list preview, but it doesn't sound as good and there's no telling if the M's play the game this year anyway

RHP Andy Baldwin, 6'5, 215 lbs, 10/20/82
2008 (AAA): 10-5, 30 G (22 GS), 2 CG (SO), 4.75 ERA in 147.2 IP, 177 H (13 HR), 91 R (78 ER), 87/41 K/BB, 7 HB, 4 WP
Career: 24-35, 129 G (113 GS), 5 CG (SO), 4.41 ERA in 721.2 IP, 825 H (53 HR), 415 R (354 ER), 469/141 K/BB , 42 HB, 27 WP

If he makes it to the majors at this point, Baldwin is likely to take the Jon Huber career path. This was his first season in triple-A and the results seem to raise questions as to whether he has the stuff to hold up there. Comparing his totals to the numbers he put up in double-A, you'll see a drop in Ks by about 3.1% (16.35 to 13.24) and a jump in walks of 3.5% (2.7% to 6.2%), though his hits did drop by half a percent. What it seems like to me, looking at the numbers, is that either he didn't hit his spots this year (mild injury or possible regression) or he did and triple-A hitters aren't so easily fooled. He's historically walked few batters, and a switch to relief could be of benefit to him if they gave him some time to adjust. It's just a question of whether they will, or if anyone else wants him.

RHP Rich Dorman, 6'3, 210 lbs, 10/30/78
2008 (AA): 7-2, 14 GS, 2 CG, 2.62 ERA in 89.1 IP, 69 H (5 HR), 30 R (26 ER), 79/29 K/BB, HB, 3 WP 360
2008 (AAA): 2 -4, 11 G (8 GS), 4.78 ERA in 37.2 IP, 43 H (5 HR), 23 R (20 ER), 31/9 K/BB, HB, 5 WP, 166
Career: 45-36, 217 G (128 GS), 4 CG, 9 S, 3.80 ERA in 816.2 IP, 724 H (30 HR), 410 R (345 ER), 784/413 K/BB, 8 HB, 25 WP 1427

Perhaps you have heard of this young up-and-comer. I feel like I've talked Dorman to death in my years of covering the system, so I'll try to keep it simple. Dorman's a former catcher, so while he did just turn 30, his career trajectory has been a little different. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve, but has had difficulty locating the latter and didn't seem to get the change-up until this year. The most important thing to know about him is that, after running a 2/1 K/BB or worse for his career, he was closer to 3/1 this year, ending the season at about 2.9. The reason for this major step forward wasn't an increase in Ks, but better command overall. His career walk rate is 28.9%, but last season it dropped to 7.2%. Suffice to say, that's a huge difference. He could make a competent late inning reliever, but with three pitches now at his disposal, maybe he could fill out the back end of a rotation too. The M's took Dickey on the basis of a knuckleball, so it's possible that someone could take Dorman, not so much on novelty as late blooming.

OF Gregory Halman, R/R, 6'4, 200 lbs, 8/26/87
2008 (A+): 67 G, 257 AB, 52 R, 69 H, 15 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 53 RBI, 23 SB, CS, 76/16 K/BB, .268/.320/.572/.892
2008 (AA): 61 G, 235 AB, 43 R, 65 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB, 6 CS, 66/16 K/BB, .277/.332/.481/.813
Career: 296 G, 1122 AB, 194 R, 294 H, 61 2B, 13 3B, 57 HR, 161 RBI, 73 SB, 29 CS, 355/74 K/BB, .262/.319/492/.811

This name on the list is likely to surprise a lot of people. The reasoning here is that, while he's only played four years in the system, he played in instructs during 2004, which would lead me to believe that it was a 2004 contract he signed. I could be wrong. Halman is probably the most physically talented player in the whole system, just one home run away from being a 30/30 man in the minors over two levels this season. The knock against him is that he has worse plate discipline/pitch recognition than even Balentien did after his first four seasons in the minors, though to be fair, Halman's a year younger in his development track and Wlad abruptly broke out with 70 walks, more than double any of his previous annual totals, in his fourth year in. Halman has shown no such signs of breakout, but he's a monster talent, drawing comparisons to Alfonso Soriano. Either way, his addition to the 40-man probably wouldn't be the much of a detriment, as he'll have a few years to sort things out in the high minors yet.

RHP Gaby Hernandez, 6'3, 215 lbs, 5/21/86
2008 (AA FLA): 3-0, 4 GS, 4.30 ERA in 23.0 IP, 21 H (HR), 11 R, 17/4, HB, WP
2008 (AA SEA): 1-1, 6 GS, 5.01 ERA in 32.1 IP, 38 H (3 HR), 19 R (18 ER), 23/15 K/BB, 3 HB, WP
2008 (AAA FLA): 2-8, 13 GS, 7.24 ERA in 64.2 IP, 94 H (14 HR), 59 R (52 ER), 54/26 K/BB, 3 HB, 4 WP
Career: 27-29, 111 G (108 GS), 4 CG, SO, 4.02 ERA in 581.2 IP, 551 H (46 HR), 303 R (260 ER), 517/188, 49 HB, 22 WP, 2300

Over the years, Hernandez has gone from the kind of pitcher who was a number three prospect in the Mets system going into 2005 and 2006, and a top five in the two years following with the Marlins, to the kind of pitcher who gets thrown in a trade in return for an aging left-handed reliever. Early on in his career, the one thing he seemed to be missing was a solid breaking pitch. He finally developed that in 2007, but towards the end of the year he wore down. The 2008 season was not at all good to him, as he continued to have mediocre results, and only so much can be blamed on the park in Albuquerque. Recent reports coming out of the AFL are not good, as his velocity is down and his curve is as bad as it used to be, and he's been noted for his struggles with adversity in the past. His old potential made him the kind of pitcher Bavasi would overvalue in a trade, but it remains to be seen whether Zduriencik holds him in such high esteem. The crystal ball may see surgery in his future.

1B Marshall Hubbard, L/R, 6'2, 215 lbs, 4/16/82
2008 (AA): 91 G, 309 AB, 54 R, 90 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, 4 CS, 63/56 K/BB, .291/.407/.505/.912
Career: 514 G, 1849 AB, 292 R, 522 H, 126 2B, 11 3B, 57 HR, 299 RBI, 12 SB, 13 CS, 443/254 K/BB, .282/.374/.455/.829

The presence of Bryan LaHair in triple-A has kept Hubbard in double-A for parts of the past three seasons. The numbers he put up for 2008 are certainly enticing, but keep that as a background context for looking at them. The two first basemen aren't all that different fundamentally, both are left-handed hitters, defensively immobile, and strikeout a bit too much the without appealing power returns that would override that. Directly comparing the two, LaHair has cleared forty doubles and twenty homers, which is something that Hubbard has yet to do, but Hubb can give you an extra twenty to thirty points in on-base percentage. If the offseason plays out into a rebuilding mode and the M's don't manage to acquire a first baseman, then the two could be in competition for the job in Seattle. However, under ideal circumstances, I would hope that the future doesn't plan around either in a great capacity and that we actually develop a hitter we can put there without reservations.

RHP Stephen Kahn, 6'3, 215 lbs, 12/14/83
2008: Did Not Play
Career: 3-0 1.000, 69 G, 20 S, 4.27 ERA in 86.1 IP, 81 H (5 HR), 46 R (41 ER), 91/61 K/BB, 4 HB, 11 WP

Kahn was looking to be on the Mark Lowe fast track to the big leagues when his knee exploded during spring training in '07. Early reports had him returning to action in the Arizona Fall League that year, but injury prevented it. Unfortunately for him, 2008 started out much the same way, though he did make it to the AFL this season, starting out strong before running into the kind of problems one could expect given the rust and the climate. He hasn't been able to spot his fastball that well and his curve hasn't had the kind of break one would want. No one denies that Kahn has the stuff, when healthy, but he's yet to display great command of it and has lost two years of development. The repeated knee injuries are also a concern, as they tend to deteriorate, so the M's may take the gamble of leaving him knowing that he's a perceived risk.

IF Oswaldo Navarro, S/R, 5'10, 160 lbs, 10/2/84
2008 (AAA): 104 G, 357 AB, 47 R, 93 H, 21 2B, 3B, HR, 31 RBI, 2 SB, 3 CS, 71/31 K/BB, .261/.326/.333/.659
Career: 655 G, 2311 AB, 290 R, 597 H, 136 2B, 4 3B, 18 HR, 250 RBI, 62 SB, 29 CS, 424/203 K/BB .258/.322/.344/.666

To call this an average year for Navarro would be accurate, and also an insult. He's been at Tacoma for two and a half years now and only developed very slightly. This becomes more of a problem as Navarro's best career OPS was .722, and that was some years ago in Wisconsin. He still owns a glove. People like gloves, right? I don't think that anyone would want to put up with his bat unless they absolutely had no other options.

OF Prentice Redman, R/R, 6'3, 185 lbs, 8/23/79
2008 (AA): 38 G, 135 AB, 24 R, 35 H, 8 2B, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, 3 CS, 23/24 K/BB, .259/.377/.452/.829
2008 (AAA): 82 G, 319 AB, 73 R, 99 H, 22 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 51 RBI, 7 SB, 6 CS, 45/37 K/BB, .310/.388/.571/.959
Career: 1170 G, 4210 AB, 650 R, 1055 H, 274 2B, 18 3B, 118 HR, 574 RBI, 189 SB, 78 CS, 880/459 K/BB, .251/.326/.408/.734

Redman could be considered a textbook example of a player who muddled along in his early years and suddenly tore the league limb from limb as he hit his physical prime. For his career, 38.9% of his hits have gone for extra bases. In 2008 it was 47% of his hits. If the team decides that now isn't the time to break in a younger outfielder in a lesser role, they could do a lot worse than Redman, who can draw a walk, get an extra-base hit, and play all three outfield positions competently. He's not the type of player that is likely to matter to the team in three years, but there may be a short-term spot for him to hold down.

LHP Robert Rohrbaugh, 6'2, 190 lbs, 12/28/83
2008 (AAA): 7 -5, 19 G (18 GS), S, 5.25 ERA in 96.0 IP, 109 H (8 HR), 61 R (56 ER), 76/28 K/BB, HB, 2 WP
Career: 25-15, 86 G (82 GS), 3 CG (3 SO), S, 3.56 ERA in 478.1 IP, 477 H (41 HR), 208 R (189 ER), 372/129 K/BB, 18 HB, 19 WP

The season Rohrbaugh had to make a case for a rotation spot also happened to be his worst statistically to date. His career rate stats, including this season, are 23.7% H (2% HR), 18.5% Ks, and 6.4% BBs. This season it was 25.6% H (1.9% HR), 17.8% Ks, and 6.6% BBs. It's not a dramatic difference, the ERA is deceptively high, but as a pitcher like Rohrbaugh reaches the high minors, anything he does is placed under greater scrutiny. Rohrbaugh is a pitcher who pitches in the mid-80s and makes his living hitting his spots and keeping hitters off-balance with an assortment of off-speed pitches. That's a skillset that tops out in the high minors year after year. While he's more polished than Feierabend, who is already on the 40-man, he's not as young and his stuff is worse, resulting in 5% fewer Ks. He could be useful to a team who needs a warm body to fill a rotation spot, but unless he pulls a Moyer, and who does aside from the man himself, he's not the kind of guy you plan a spot around.

OF Michael Saunders, L/R, 6'4, 205 lbs, 11/19/86
2008 (AA): 67 G, 248 AB, 46 R, 72 H, 18 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 11 SB, CS, 66/30 K/BB, .290/.375/.484/.859
2008 (AAA): 24 G, 95 AB, 12 R, 23 H, 4 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 30/9 K/BB, SB, 2 CS, .242/.308/.400/.708
Career: 374 G, 1381 AB, 229 R, 378 H, 71 2B, 21 3B, 37 HR, 208 RBI, 65 SB, 33 CS, 409/181 K/BB, .274/.362/.436/.798

I think we can all agree that Saunders had now supplanted Bryan LaHair as the system's best draft-and-follow pick in recent memory. What is less clear is where he fits in the system's overall outfield scheme, as many seem to think he'll fill out and lose a step or two, forcing him into a corner. His arm plays well at either, but as a bat, he's not prototypical, and still hasn't found a great deal of power. You could probably peg him as topping out at thirty to forty doubles and about twenty home runs, but he's likely to be lower than that most of the time. One of the reasons is that his plate discipline, as is symptomatic within the system, is less than ideal. An additional knock against him is that despite his current speed, he's not a particularly proficient base stealer. At least he can walk a little and is young. He could profile as a number two hitter, or maybe a six or a seven.

RHP Marwin Vega, 6'0, 175 lbs, 10/27/86
2008 (AA): 3-3, 46 G (GS), 2 S, 4.72 ERA in 68.2 IP, 67 H (3 HR), 41 R (36 ER) 50/44 K/BB, 7 HB, 9 WP, 315
Career: 12-17, 102 G (50 GS), CG, 3 S, 5.08 ERA in 336.1 IP, 368 H (21 HR), 233 R (190 ER), 242/149, 41 HB, 47 WP, 1521

Some may be a little confused as to why I picked Vega to round out this list while snubbing fellows like Varvaro and Venegas, possibly with accusations of favoritism. The main reason is that, during the winter meetings last year, there were some rumors going around that people liked his repertoire as a starter and anticipated taking a chance on him before working further to polish up his stuff. He does indeed have the pitches to start, a low 90s/high 80s fastball, a change-up in the 60s, and a slurve, but he's been pretty bad at getting all those things to work in tandem and then spotting them. Switching to relief work didn't help him any, and actually made his command quite a bit worse, even while more Ks came with it. He's a poor man's Emiliano Fruto at the moment, but he's still young.

Others who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, but unlikely to be picked, include RHPs Natividad Dilone, Ruben Flores, Aaron Jensen, Mumba Rivera, Denny Stark, Anthony Varvaro, Alfredo Venegas, and Juan Zapata, LHPs Eddy Hernandez and Jose Jimenez, C Blake Ochoa, 1Bs Gerardo Avila and Ian Bladergroen, IFs Jeff Dominguez and Ron Garth, 3B Ron Prettyman, OFs Maximo Mendez and Brent Johnson (a lesser Redman, at this point).