MVN - Most Valuable Network

Baseball HQ: Deric McKamey’s top 15

I was fortunate to get in touch with Baseball HQ’s Deric McKamey. Deric is the Director of Minor League Analysis for Baseball HQ. Many many thanks to him for giving me/us a piece of his time. I’ll be submitting my interview with him in the coming days. As for now, I’ll give you Deric’s top 15:

Top 15 BREWERS PROSPECTS
As ranked by Deric McKamey

1. Manny Parra (LHP)- 9C
2. Matt LaPorta (LF)- 9D
3. Jeremy Jeffress (RHP)- 9D
4. Angel Salome (C)- 8C
5. Brent Brewer (SS)- 8D
6. Mat Gamel (3B)- 7C
7. Alcides Escobar (SS)- 7C
8. Cole Gillespe (LF)- 7C
9. Taylor Green (3B)- 8D
10. Michael Brantley (LF/1B)- 7C
11. Darren Ford (CF)- 7C
12. Jon Lucroy (C)- 7C
13. Zach Braddock (LHP)- 8D
14. Lorenzo Cain (CF)- 7C
15. Hernan Iribarren (2B)- 7C

PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING
Scale of (1-10) representing a player’s upside potential
10 – Hall of Fame-type player
9 – Elite player
8 – Solid regular
7 – Average regular
6 – Platoon player
5 – Major league reserve player
4 - Top minor league player
3 - Average minor league player
2 - Minor league reserve player
1 - Minor league roster filler

PROBABILITY RATING
Scale of (A-E) representing the player’s realistic chances of achieving their potential
A - 90% probability of reaching potential
B - 70% probability of reaching potential
C - 50% probability of reaching potential
D - 30% probability of reaching potential
E - 10% probability of reaching potential

Future Shock - by Kevin Goldstein

Completing the triumvirate of sports columnists is the unveiling of Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock - ‘Top 11 Brewers Prospects’
The article can be read here and if you have a subscription, then you can read more on the analysis of each player. The list runs like this:

Five Star Prospects
1. Matt LaPorta, LF
2. Manny Parra, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Cole Gillespie, OF
5. Angel Salome, C
6. Alcides Escobar, SS
7. Mat Gamel, 3B
8. Caleb Gindl, OF
9. Luis Pena, RHP
10. Robert Bryson, RHP
11. Brent Brewer, SS

Just Missing: Lorenzo Cain, OF ; Hernan Iribarren, 2B ; Mark Rogers, RHP

Just Missing usually indicates the next star or perhaps the list wasn’t long enough. In this case, I would suggest that the list wasn’t long enough. Cain has been fairly highly regarded, Iribarren an heir to Weeks and Rogers a front-line starter if healthy. This list is un-ordinary after looking at the other lists you’ve all seen, with the exception of Pena and Bryson. That’s quite suspicious that they are on the list and the Minor League Player of the Year - Taylor Green isn’t there.

So far we’ve heard from Baseball America, John Sickels, and now Kevin Goldstein. There is another ace in the hole, that I’d love to hear from - Deric McKamey - but I have no sources or keys as to how get a hold of him. If I can find his analysis on the web, I will post it - as his system is a bit different than the others. He keys on ceilings as well as the potential to reach those ceilings. Its an interesting ranking to see.

I’m itching to do my own Top 50, it has just been hard finding time here of late. Stay tuned!

Armchair GM

With the Super Bowl upon us, I’ve chimed in for a bit of an off-topic rant of sorts. Plus this is sort of a diversion until I can get rolling on my top 50 for the Brew Crew…

Let me begin by saying I have no affiliation with any organizations. I’ve coached Pony League/Babe Ruth for 3 years, and that’s the extent of my coaching career. I played High School baseball, and even went to try out at the college level. That’s the extent of my playing career. I don’t know what it takes to be a MLB general manager, and I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

I am a fantasy geek. I have subscriptions to Baseball America, and Scout.com, and check in with John Sickel’s site as well as Derrick McKamey and Kevin Goldstein. So you could say I spend a little time reading about the up and comers of tomorrow. Heck, I’m even in Dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. Poor soul I am.

So, I’ve been following the Orioles/Mariners fiasco for the past 3 weeks wondering what the hold up is. And I’ve come to this conclusion. Year-by-year contracts for a general manager is a horrendous thing to do. I’m looking at Bill Bavasi and I want to send him a flaming bag of dog crap and lay it on his office doorstep so he can stomp it out and get poo all over himself. That’s the equivalent of what he’s doing to the organization anyways. You can’t fault the guy. The black suits (who likewise have limited actual baseball knowledge) have put pressure on him to win now. Put butts in the seats. They want to see green on the bottom line. If Bavasi can convince Bedard to sign in 2 years, the deal doesn’t look so bad. I know prospects are prospects, but look around the Brewer’s infield and you can see the importance. By sending 4 prospects and a middle-reliever with good value, he is sending the organization back 1 step. At least he wasn’t dumb enough to include Clement, Morrow or Triunfel.

You can read his gafs on another website, but if you gave this organization to a baseball mind, I dare to say it would have been in the playoffs by now - and perhaps in contention. Spending $125 million in payroll is not the way to have a successful franchise. When I say successful, I mean a winning franchise who is capable of winning for 3-5 years in a row. I thought the Yankees and the Knicks should have proven that by now. Look at the teams in contention this past post-season. Rockies, Diamondbacks, Indians, Red Sox, and Brewers have leaned on their minor leagues. They’ve nourished, spent money on scouting and generally had baseball minds in place to make good decisions.

Ask Giants fans how they’ve loved having Sabean on a year-to-year basis. My point is, get a guy in, give him time. Get someone who has knowledge of baseball. Granted, baseball is a business, so it helps to know how to manage money - but would you “average Joe” have made any of the moves the M’s have made over the past few years? Don’t trade for a empty .300 hitter to be your DH. That position should provide some power production. Don’t fork over $12 million a year on a 3-5 type starting pitcher when you were only bidding against yourself. According to information that I’ve dug up, no one else would have went over 10.5. Then look at your payroll. Bavasi has committed $12 million + $9.375 million + $9 million to Silva, Washburn and Miguel Batista for the upcoming season. Would you “average Joe” commit this type of money for the back end of your rotation?

Bavasi has been put in a situation that he has to do whatever it takes to try to win now. Sure, these guys may have been the best available at the time and required that kind of money to sign. But it still is not a smart thing to do. If he doesn’t show improvement, he gets the axe. Much like Sabean has had to do deal with for the past few years. Its encouraging for an organization to spend money in international scouting to dig up guys like Carlos Triunfel. It’s encouraging for an organization to pony up signing bonuses to land high-ceiling arms like Phillipe Aumont. But don’t turn around and piss it away with signing back of the rotation starters for that kind of money and then mortage a future all-star outfielder for a 2 year rental. Don’t throw your first round pick into the fire of the big league bullpen just 20 innings in his professional career.  Would you Brewer fan throw Gallardo or Parra straight into the bullpen just after you drafted them?  You risk stunting his growth.  It will be a huge mistake if Morrow isn’t in Tacoma this year too.

I close by saying, God bless the Brewers organization. They are following the model of franchises of whom have the Brewers in their rear-view mirror. God bless the small market teams for being smart with their money. For developing their prospects. For putting baseball minds in place when it comes to making baseball decisions. For international scouting. For finding that gem in the 30th round of the draft.

Give me Melvin and co. over a $125 million payroll any day. I might have to practice patience and wait for the prospects to prosper, but its healthier than having an ulcer watching the big boys throw it all away.

Time for a check-up

Hello blogosphere.  I’m still alive and kicking.  Just busy with life in general at the moment.  I’ve sort of been waiting on the big boys to make their off-season moves before I dive into breaking down the system.

The recent signings of Cameron and co., will make an impact on the system.  As Dave replied to my last post, the Brewers just haven’t been able to develop an impact OF.  That is perhaps, because the majority of their top picks haven’t been outfielders, however, I’d have to look a little closer at recent draft before making that declaration.  Braun will now make a move to LF with Hall switching to the hot corner to make room for Cameron.  I’m not a big fan personally of the move, but hey, Doug didn’t ask me either.  If I had to sign an OFer, I would’ve went with Lofton to bat at the top of the order and be a table-setter for the heart of the order.  But again… Doug didn’t ask me.

This squad should rival “Bambi’s Bombers” of the late 1970’s.  This squad, led by Gorman Thomas and Paul Molitor led the American League in home runs with 178, and also led 6 other offensive categories.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be dissecting the minor leagues, position by position, which will lead to a pre-season top 50.  So stay tuned.