MVN - Most Valuable Network

2006 Lancaster JetHawks Recap Pt 2

Pitching

Team Pitching (League Ranking)
Wins : 68 (7th)
Losses : 72 (4th most)
ERA : 5.60 (10th)
Complete Games : 2 (T-5th)
Shutouts : 5 (T-6th)
Saves : 38 (4th)
Hits Allowed : 1508 (most)
ER Allowed : 760 (most)
HR Allowed : 129 (3rd most)
Hit Batters : 100 (2nd most)
Walks : 569 (most)
Strikeouts : 935 (9th)
WHIP : 1.70 (10th)

Pitching Stats (Sorted by ERA)

Name              W-L  ERA   SV    IP    K/BB   K/9   BB/9  WHIP
Chris Kinsey      3-0  0.00   0   11.1  13/9   10.32  7.15  1.50
Greg Smith        9-0  1.63   0   88.1  71/31   7.23  3.16  1.00
Matt Chico        3-4  3.75   0   50.1  49/11   8.76  1.97  1.17
Matt Fowles       4-1  3.84   1   58.2  53/47   8.13  7.21  1.65
Matt Elliott      2-4  4.02  24   47    66/28  12.64  5.36  1.72
Jesus Silva       2-1  4.41   0   32.2  24/15   6.61  4.13  1.53
Mark Rosen        2-4  5.13   2   59.2  52/39   7.84  5.88  1.63
Matt Green        5-12 5.14   0  136.2  96/51   6.32  3.36  1.70
AJ Shappi         8-7  5.58   0  122.2  60/32   4.40  2.35  1.61
Anthony Cupps     3-0  5.59   0   29    16/17   4.97  5.28  1.83
Esmerling Vasquez 4-9  5.89   0  117.2 115/51   8.80  3.90  1.53
Jared Doyle       3-1  5.98   4   64.2  40/46   5.57  6.40  1.67
Ryan Coffin       0-1  6.41   0   26.2  18/14   6.08  4.73  1.95
Kellen Raab       9-8  6.84   0  122.1  79/36   5.81  2.65  1.90
Daniel Pohlman    3-8  6.95   7   66    58/44   7.91  6.00  2.06
Hipolito Guerrero 3-4  7.44   0   65.1  56/38   7.71  5.23  1.88
Eddie Baeza       1-4  7.57   0   35.2  26/21   6.56  5.30  2.19
Cody Evans        2-3  8.22   0   58    25/19   3.88  2.95  1.97
Jonatan Valverde  2-1  9.11   0   26.2  17/14   5.74  4.73  2.40
Derek Bruce       0-0 18.00   0    1     0/1    0.00  9.00  4.00
Richard Mercado   0-0 27.00   0    0.2   0/1    0.00 13.50  7.50
Kyle Bono         0-0 27.00   0    1.1   1/4    6.75 27.00  6.00


Stat Leaders
Wins : 9 (Kellen Raab, Greg Smith)
Losses : 12 (Matt Green)
ERA : 1.63 (Smith)
Games : 55 (Dan Pohlman)
Starts : 27 (Green)
Saves : 24 (Matt Elliott)
IP : 136 2/3 (Green)
Homers Allowed : 18 (AJ Shappi, Green)
Walks : 51 (Green, Esmerling Vasquez)
Strikeouts : 115 (Vasquez)
Hit Batters : 15 (Shappi)
Opponent Batting Average : .190 (Smith)
WHIP : 1.00 (Smith)
Wild Pitches : 10 (Mark Rosen)
K/9 : 12.64 (Elliott)
BB/9 (Lowest) : 1.97 (Matt Chico)
K/BB : 4.45 (Chico)

Because of the pitching conditions in Lancaster and the California League in general, it is hard to measure pitching prospects based on their performance there. Greg Smith’s 9 wins in his 2 months with the team held up until the end of the season as the team’s best. Only Kellen Raab managed to equal the mark, a testament of how few decisions came from the starters. Other promotions and the mid-season trade of Mock and Chico in Double A also contributed to the lack of wins from the rotation.

The Diamondbacks challenged LHP Smith by jumping him straight from Rookie League Missoula, where he was Most Valuable Pitcher in 2005, to High A Lancaster, and he responded by absolutely dominating the Cal League hitters for 2 months. He made 13 starts and won 9 of them, losing none. He gave up just 16 earned runs (1.63 ERA) and 57 hits in 88 1/3 innings, averaging almost 7 innings a start including 2 complete games. Smith doesn’t have a blazing fastball but he has a strong assortment of pitches and he’ll need to harness his control to succeed at higher levels. His K/9 has dropped from 10.93 in 2005 to 7.23 in High A to 5.70 in Double A. He will repeat Double A this season having just turned 23 last December and will bear watching if he can keep his K/BB rate high. He was invited to Spring Training and impressed the coaches before he was reassigned to Minor League camp this week.

After going 1-7 with a 5.98 ERA in his first attempt at AA ball in 2005, Matt Chico was sent back down to start the season in High A. His win-loss record of 3-4 doesn’t show how well he pitched. In his 10 starts, he had a 3.75 ERA and showed great control, walking just 11 in 50 1/3 innings against 49 strikeouts. Having regained his confidence, he was promoted back to Tennessee where he was a strong 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA when he was traded along with Garrett Mock to the Washington Nationals for Livan Hernandez. The 23-year old lefty has a shot of actually making the Nationals rotation this season.

The rest of the rotation was a mess. Matt Green made 27 starts and finished 5-12 with a 5.14 ERA. Some of it can be excused and his ERA was better than others in the rotation but his numbers aren’t much different from his first half-season with Missoula in 2005. For his career, Green now has a 5.28 ERA and a WHIP of 1.71. Having turned 25 in January, he’ll need to buck up a lot to justify being a 2nd round pick.

AJ Shappi made 22 starts in his 2nd season in Lancaster, with a slight decline in results. His ERA went from 5.10 to 5.58, his K/9 dropped from 6.49 to 4.40 while his WHIP rose 14 points to 1.61. What remained constant is his good control, with a 2.35 BB/9 (2.32 in 2005). The Chico and Mock trade provided Shappi with a chance to escape the Cal League though he didn’t do well in his first 5 starts up in Double A (5.59 ERA, 1.69 WHIP). He’ll be returning to Double A in Mobile and unless he can get his K/9 rate up, he’ll probably wind up as a reliever in the near future.

Kellen Raab shared the team lead in wins but it was more because he had great run support as his ERA was 6.84. He has since been released by the Diamondbacks.

Esmerling Vasquez started the season in the bullpen but was moved into the rotation. He started 18 games and his starting ERA (5.38) was better than his relieving ERA (7.71). He led the team in strikeouts with 115 in 117 2/3 innings. He also had a GB/FB ratio above 1.0. The team might keep him as a starter since there a pitching shortage in Double A. Still, he could be more valuable as a setup man than as a starter.

As mentioned in the Silver Hawks review, both Eddie Baeza and Cody Evans were hit hard after their promotions. They will both be back for another season, though this time in a different uniform.

Chris Kinsey was a 4th round pick in 2003. After a couple of seasons of starting that weren’t successful, the D-backs converted him into a reliever and he has been a minor success in his first season there. He pitched 11 1/3 innings in 6 games as a JetHawk, allowing just 3 unearned runs despite 9 walks in 11 1/3 innings, before he got promoted to Double A where he spent most of the season. I’ll be covering more about him in the Tennessee report. He’s a non-roster invitee in Spring Training with the D-backs.

Matt Fowles was probably lucky to have his ERA below 4. He struck out 53 in 58 2/3 innings which was good, but also walked 47. Add in the fact that he had a 0.67 GB/FB ratio, you’d expect him to get hit hard with so many runners on base. But he still finished with a 3.84 ERA and a 4-1 record. Allowing a .229 batting average against (.197 vs righties) probably had a lot to do with it. His batting average against dropped further to .218 with men on base and to .216 with runners in scoring position. And he actually pitched better at home (.678 OPS) than away (.813)

Matt Elliott continued to build on his breakout 2006 season with the Silver Hawks, saving 24 games for the JetHawks. A team-leading 12.64 K/9 helped him keep his ERA in the low 4s. Elliott got his first taste of Double A late last season as the team wanted him to pitch in the AFL. His ERA was 5.91 in Tennessee but he maintained a good K/BB ratio with 10 Ks and 3 BBs in 10 2/3 innings. Elliott started well in the AFL but then had a couple of disastrous outings in November and finished with a 10.64 ERA in 11 innings pitched. He should return to Double A and be the closer at Mobile this coming season. He’s still 22 so the D-backs don’t need to hurry him, although they’ve invited him to Spring Training. Between Elliott and Kyler Newby, the D-backs have a couple of interesting young future closing candidates in their system.

Dan Pohlman was 2nd in the team with 7 saves and took over the closer’s role after Elliott’s promotion. The former catcher finished with a 6.95 ERA in 66 innings pitched. He walked a lot of batters (44) but kept the ball on the ground with a 1.49 GB/FB ratio. Still, a .331 opponent batting average and a 2.08 WHIP doesn’t bode well for his future as a closer.

MVP : Gonzalez
Cy Young : Smith
LVP : Hipolito Guerrero

2007 Outlook

The Diamondbacks ended their agreement with the Lancaster JetHawks after last season and in 2007 will field their High A team in Visalia instead. Here’s a look at how the 2 home parks differ based on their Park Factors.
Source : http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/minor_league_park_factors_2006/

2006 Park Factors

Team            R        H       2B      HR      BB      SO 
Lancaster       1.25     1.10    1.08    1.56    1.03    0.81
Visalia         1.01     0.97    1.06    1.08    1.08    0.89 

2004-2006 Weighted Park Factors

Lancaster       1.22     1.15    1.02    1.60    1.11    1.00
Visalia         1.04     1.00    0.99    1.35    1.04    0.91


As can be seen from both the 2006 as well as the 3-year weighted Park Factors, Visalia’s home field in Recreation Park, plays close to a neutral park, whereas Lancaster’s Clear Channel Stadium inflated both home-run and run-scoring rates. Visalia’s home-run rate is high as well in the 3-year average but was much lower last season. Of course, neutrality is a relative term as they still play in the California League, so a neutral park in that league will be a slight offensive park in other leagues.

The move should prove to be a relief to the pitchers who will be spending their time in High A. In 2006, the D-backs decided to skip some pitchers straight from Low A to Double A, producing good results from Ross Ohlendorf and Steven Jackson. With the move to Visalia, they might start sending top pitching prospects to High A including the top picks of 2006. This includes Max Scherzer (when he signs), Brooks Brown, Brett Anderson, Dallas Buck and Hector Ambriz. Expect the pitching prospects to start making some noise in the organization this season after being overshadowed by the hitters for the last couple of years.
On the offensive side of things, while the hitters will miss the jetstream blowing out of Clear Channel Stadium, the Oaks should still score runs with a couple of strong, middle-of-the-order bats in Justin Upton and Cyle Hankerd. Others to watch out for in the Oaks’ uniform include C Frank Curreri, 1B Bryan Byrne and RF Greg Thomson.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 14th, 2007 at 12:05 am and is filed under State of the System. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.