Future Fish

Baseball Prospectus unveils the PECOTA 100

BaseballProspectus.com released their PECOTA top 100 prospects (based on Upside)
The Upside rating is designed to evaluate players in terms of value in their pre-free agency seasons. They are not, strictly speaking, intended to speak to who is going to have the most valuable career.

#1 Alex Gordon
#56 Thomas Hickman (they absolutely love the guy)
#95 Jose Garcia
#96 Rick Vanden Hurk

It’s awesome seeing Hick so high on that list, and I like Jose Garcia alot too, but it’s hard to believe that none of Sean West, Chris Volstad, Gaby Hernandez or Aaron Thompson made this list.

The also released their PECOTA top 50 players under the age of 25 (based on Upside)
Returning exclusively to the PECOTA sphere, we can also provide our “big picture list of the 50 best players aged 25-and-under in baseball, regardless of prospect status. Note that these rankings do not account for performance in the 2007 season to date; quite a few of these players have had noteworthy seasons.

#1 Joe Mauer
#2 David Wright
#3 Miguel Cabrera (just .3 behind Wright)
#12 Hanley Ramirez
#36 Josh Johnson
#42 Dontrelle Willis
#50 Jeremy Hermida

Not sure why David Wright’s upside is higher than Miguel Cabrera’s but that’s a different argument for a different day.
PECOTA = Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons. Analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors.

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