MVN - Most Valuable Network

Guessing at contributors for the 2009 Tigers

With the Tigers’ season being over and people starting to anticipate how they are going to try to get better, I figured it would be a good time to look at the guys in the system and consider who it is who might help reach that goal. Who in the Tigers’ system can reasonably be expected to contribute to the team next year? I put together a list and broke the players up into four categories: Opening Day, May, All Star Break and September.

The Opening Day players are guys I expect to be on the 25-man roster when camp breaks next Spring. Players in the May category are guys who would likely be the first ones up if somebody were to go down with an injury or a severe case of the sucks. All Star Break players are guys who are either hurt or will need some time to prove they deserve a shot on the major league roster - or both. Finally, the September guys are players who would likely only get the call when rosters expand. I don’t anticipate all the guys in the latter two groups getting major league time next season, but I was trying to be thorough.

Opening Day

Dusty Ryan, C
Matt Joyce, OF
Clay Rapada, RP
Casey Fien, RP

As you can see, the Tigers don’t figure to have a player who is likely to step up and solve a major problem in their roster right now. Dusty Ryan could fill the hole at catcher, but he’s going to experience some growing pains and he’s probably the only catcher in the system right now who’s a viable big league option for 2009.

After Ryan, the player with the biggest potential to make a big difference for 2009 is Casey Fien. If I were placing bets, I’d guess the Tigers would nab two players from free agency and two players from their own system to try to address their bullpen problems from 2008. It seems likely Fien will be one of the two internal guys.

As for Joyce and Rapada, they both offer decent options to fill out the roster but will each likely play minor roles if they make it through the winter without being traded. Joyce figures to be behind Carlos Guillen in left. Rapada would figure to be a second lefty specialist whether it’s behind Bobby Seay or somebody the Tigers seek out as an upgrade. Rapada’s the player I’m least certain would crack the Opening Day roster.

May

Jeff Larish, 1B/3B
Danny Worth, SS
Clete Thomas, OF
Brent Clevlen, OF
Chris Lambert, SP
Freddy Dolsi, RP

I think any of these guys has a decent shot at making the Opening Day roster. After all, we found out last season a trade can mix things up pretty quickly. If Larish makes the roster right off, he might be able to get a decent number of at bats. He could spell Inge and Cabrera at first and third and fill in at DH when Sheffield needs a day off.

Worth’s role in the system will obviously depend on what the Tigers decide to do about a shortstop. If they end up giving the starting job - or a portion of it - to Ramon Santiago, Worth might be the guy they look to as his backup or co-starter.

Similarly, Clete Thomas’s role on the team will depend on whether they decide to let guys like Marcus Thames and Ryan Raburn explore their options elsewhere in the league. If Carlos Guillen is truly going to be the most days left fielder, it cuts playing time down a lot for Thomas. And Clevlen. I almost made a separate category for Clevlen in which I would explain that he was likely to be gone. He’s out of options and his not being called up in September wouldn’t seem to bode well for his future with the team.

Moving on to the pitchers, Chris Lambert looks like a guy who might be able to fill a mopup role or give some spot starts if the Tigers need that. Like all the players in this category, he’ll probably be high on the depth chart if an injury necessitates a callup.

There’s a contingent of Tiger fans who really took a liking to Freddy Dolsi. I suppose it’s the fact that he has the stuff that should allow him to get strikeouts and we saw glimpses of him actually getting some. If he’s going to be more than a guy who shuttles back and forth between Detroit and Toledo, he’ll probably need to figure out how to do that more often - and walk batters a lot less often.

All Star Break

Mike Hollimon, MI
Wilkin Ramirez, OF
Cale Iorg, SS
Luis Marte, P
Zach Simons, RP
Robbie Weinhardt, RP
Ryan Perry, RP
Guillermo Moscoso, P

Put simply, Hollimon would have been in the Opening Day group if his torn labrum weren’t expected to keep him out until midseason. Wilkin Ramirez could zoom up in the depth chart if he hits in Toledo like he did in Erie for very long. He’ll definitely need to do it for a while to show his awful stint at the Triple A level last year won’t be his true level of talent.

I covered in some detail my thoughts on Dombrowski’s comments no Iorg. I don’t think he’ll be able to make the leap from Hi A to the majors so quickly, but if he gets it done in Erie a midseason callup wouldn’t surprise me even a little bit.

Luis Marte will need to show he can stay healthy and then throw for strikes. If he can do those two things, a stint in the majors for him wouldn’t surprise me in the least. He has a live arm and with two plus pitches clearing those two hurdles could line him up for a bullpen job in the majors if and when they’re looking for somebody. I think the story could be very similar for the next three, Zach Simons, Robbie Weinhardt and Ryan Perry.

Perry could move the easiest because of his draft position, but he also may need the most work of the three. As for Simons and Weinhardt, if they’re getting it done in Erie don’t be surprised if they have Detroit knocking at their door at some point. From what I’ve read, all three have stuff that could play in the majors.

Guillermo Moscoso is a little different. He doesn’t have the stuff of some of these other guys. He just keeps pitching the hell out of the ball and getting guys out. If he keeps it up, it seems possible the Tigers might just give him a shot.

September

Will Rhymes, 2B
James Skelton, C
Rick Porcello, SP
Alfredo Figaro, P
Cody Satterwhite, RP
Rudy Darrow, RP
Brett Jensen, RP

Will Rhymes may move up out of this group if he has a good fall and impresses in the spring. I’d just be surprised if he leaps ahead of Danny Worth and Mike Hollimon when they’re looking for a middle infielder to fill in. James Skelton is just going to have to keep showing people he can handle what they throw at him. He kept on getting on base in Erie and if he shows he can handle a full season’s worth of innings and produce at the plate, I don’t see how they don’t give him a shot.

Porcello might belong in the previous group. I’d expect him to get a September callup. However, if the Tiger rotation is blowing up again next year and he’s handling Double A batters a midseason callup wouldn’t surprise me much at all.

Figaro seemed to struggle when he got to Lakeland, but his numbers weren’t bad if you consider a lousy percentage of balls in play getting turned into outs. I think him being even in this group is a bit of a long shot but a stong season could earn him a look. I would’ve put Satterwhite in the previous group but he struggled with his control more than Weinhardt and doesn’t have Perry’s pedigree. He’s probably another long shot for even a September callup. But he was a 2008 draftee, so it’s not like that makes him a bust.

Darrow jumped in this group because of his assignment to the Arizona Fall League. If he can handle that hitter friendly league, it would reward the Tigers’ faith in him and might make me look silly for not putting him in one of the earlier groups. I put him in this group, though, because he has surprisingly little time above West Michigan for a guy who will enter next season as a 25-year old.

That leaves us with probably the longest shot of the bunch, Brett Jensen. He went down with Tommy John this season, but if he makes a full recovery I’m hoping he’ll be getting hitters out in Erie by mid to late season. Then I’ll get back to counting on his ability to throw strikes and his sidearm delivery to earn him a look in the bigs.

Summary

So there are the players I have slated as having what I believe is even a slim shot at playing for Detroit in 2009. It’s a little alarming for its lack of impact players. It’s also not encouraging how quickly the list turns into guys you have to squint your eyes and think optimistically to imagine as big leaguers. Essentially, if the Tigers are digging too deep into this list of players because of others’ ineptitude or injuries, 2009 might be another long season. On the other hand, if they’re just cycling through some of these players looking for a guy to fill a spot or two on the bench or the bullpen, it seems feasible they could find a pleasant surprise.

HWB Update - The first week (and change)

I’ve been remiss to this point in keeping you up to date on what the Tigers’ three representatives in the Hawaiian Winter Baseball League have been doing. Their team, the West Oaho CaneFires are 4-2, but unless I hear requests otherwise I’m just going to focus on what the Tiger prospects did in the game rather than the team’s results.

September 27

James Skelton drew starting catching duties in the first game of the year and was 1 for 3 with a single and an RBI. His single kicked off the scoring in a twelve run effort by the CaneFire lineup.

September 28

Kyle Peter got the start in left field and picked up a couple singles and an RBI before being lifted in the eighth inning for a pinch hitter. James Skelton had a single in two trips as the starting catcher but was picked off first base.

Andrew Hess picked up the sixth and seventh innings and was brilliant as he struck out five batters in the short outing. The only hit he allowed was a single.

September 30

Kyle Peter started this one as the designated hitter and was 2 for 6 with a couple singles, a run and an RBI. That was part of a pretty brutal West Oahu attack that led to a 12-3 win over Waikiki. James Skelton came into the game long enough to get one at bat, but struck out.

Andrew Hess earned one of those silly saves by pitching the final three innings of a blowout. He have up three hits and a run with no walks or strikeouts.

October 1

James Skelton and Kyle Peter each came in as later inning replacements. Skelton came out as the catcher in the sixth, drew a walk in the seventh and scored a run to tie the game at five. The next inning, Peter came out as a pinch hitter and moved a runner from second to third with a ground out to the right side. That put the runner in position to score the go-ahead run easily on a single.

Shortly thereafter, James Skelton hit a two run double to put the CaneFires up 8-5. Peter added a double in the ninth to score the final insurance run for West Oahu.

October 2

James Skelton played and batted second, but went 0 for 3 with a walk. He also had a couple passed balls as the team’s catcher.

Season stats so far:

James Skelton, 5 games, 3 for 10, 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, .300/.462/.400
Kyle Peter, 4 games, 5 for 15, 2B, 3 K, .333/.333/.400
Andrew Hess, 2 games, 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K, 1 SV, 1.80 ERA

Matt Joyce cracks BA’s IL Top 20

Baseball America released their Top 20 Prospects for the International League and Matt Joyce was the only Mud Hen to crack the list, coming in at number thirteen. We’ve seen plenty of Matt Joyce in a Tiger uniform so the scouting report isn’t all that surprising.

They have him with good power, but being prone to strikeouts and struggles against lefties. In the outfield he has good range and a strong arm. Like I said, pretty much what he showed in Detroit if you look at his overall 2008 numbers.

We’ve now seen the last of the leagues where the Tigers have minor league teams and the Tigers had all of three prospects listed: Rick Porcello, Cale Iorg and Matt Joyce. This is a system that could really use some breakthroughs, but the ‘08 draft seemed to be more about guys who project more as “solid ballplayers” and role players rather than the big talents that will show up on lists like these.

Dombrowski’s comments about Cale Iorg

Matt,

Were you surprised by Dombrowski’s comment that Iorg is going to be an all-star and very soon? I realize he’s a good prospect but Dombrowski built him up more than I expected he would at this point.

Lee

Lee, who is the author of the excellent blog, Detroit Tiger Tales, asked this question in the comments of one of my previous posts. I started to answer in the comments, but thought this was an interesting enough topic that my reply should come in the form of a new post.

Let’s begin with a quote that includes the statement Lee is talking about from the Tigers’ website:

“We’ve got a couple real good young guys in our system,” Dombrowski said. “I think Cale Iorg is going to be an All-Star, and I think he’s going to be an All-Star very soon — I mean, real soon. This guy’s a good player, and Danny Worth is a real good player.”

Let’s break that down. “I think Cale Iorg is going to be an All-Star…” Okay, not surprising. I would actually hope he’d feel Iorg has this potential since he gave him first round money a little over fourteen months ago.

“…and I think he’s going to be an All-Star very soon…” Hm, that’s a little surprising. What does he mean soon? He was in Lakeland this year, so even if he goes to Erie and tears it up enough to warrant a mid-season callup he probably wouldn’t be an All Star in his first full season - by that I mean 2010. Does Dombrowski really think he’d be an All Star in his first full season?

“– I mean, real soon.” This was the part that got my attention. To me, this part is saying to the people listening, “That first part of what I said puts a year in your head. Now I want you to knock a year or so off that.” My initial reaction when I first read that was Iorg is going to get a look for 2009. But this statement was made a day or so after the season was over so let’s not go crazy. There could be a lot of changes by next February.

So getting back to Lee’s question: yes, I was surprised by the comment. Now, as for Dombrowski building him up, my mind goes in two directions for the possible reasoning behind this. The more cynical direction is to say that Dombrowski is heading into trade season and Iorg is just a bullet in DD’s gun.

My other alternative is Dombrowski thinks Iorg is a heady player who can handle the pressure this statement puts on him. He’s not only telling him he’s going to be great with this statement; he’s also telling him there’s not much in the way of his greatness. After all, if he’s going to be great soon, and I mean real soon, it means he’s getting innings and at bats. To me, that’s Dombrowski telling a kid it’s there for the taking.

I guess it’s a calculated risk. That seems especially true when you consider how Leyland was just talking about how some of the guys on the 2008 team probably couldn’t handle the expectations that came with their big money.

Speaking of Leyland, I think his name brings up an additional layer to this statement. In the linked article, the quote that follows the one above is:

“We’ve got to work some more of these guys in,” Dombrowski continued, using his young infielders as an example. “We had a veteran-laden club last year.”

Admittedly, I probably read too much into these things but I think this is an idea directed at Leyland. Despite what he says about taking talent over experience, I think Leyland prefers to go with guys who offer a certain comfort level of performance. I think this statement is Dombrowski telling Leyland that veterans don’t guarantee you a certain level of performance either, and there is no better illustration of that than Edgar Renteria and his poor performance and unexpected lapses in judgment and concentration. Not only that, but veterans tend to be expensive in every possible way.

So he needs Leyland to work more with what he’s got because the team can’t afford to continue giving up talent to get veterans that make them feel all warm and cozy. That could very well mean he has to make due with Dusty Ryan polishing up his form behind the plate. He very well may have to suffer through whatever bonehead mistakes Danny Worth or Cale Iorg might make. He will almost certainly have to deal with Casey Fien or Robbie Weinhardt or some other young reliever accidentally hanging a fat slider on an 0-2 count.

Any of these could be the cost of all the veterans at other spots. Any of these could be the cost of necessary expensive upgrades at positions in high demand throughout the league.

I’m sure this reality would make Leyland, Dombrowski and most fans very nervous about 2009. If the Tigers actually end up tending in this direction, I think it will be very exciting. After all, some of the most memorable players from 2006 - Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, Justin Verlander and Curtis Granderson - were all the result of the Tigers closing their eyes and taking the plunge.