MVN - Most Valuable Network

High Ceiling Prospects and the Tigers

A lot has been made - in the community of people who care about prospects - of the fact that the Tigers have depleted their farm system in their attempt to stock the big league club for a one or two year window of contention. Some Tiger fans think this card is overplayed, and point to solid prospects such as Scott Sizemore, Jeff Larish and Mike Hollimon as evidence. I suppose that’s an argument you can take up, but it’s not the point of this particular article.

As somebody who has taken it upon himself to watch the Tigers’ farm very closely, I don’t really see the problem as experts undervaluing players such as Hollimon or fans overvaluing those same players. I think the problem in the Tigers’ farm system is they have a very real shortage of high-ceiling talent. Even your biggest supporters of Sizemore and Hollimon are likely to concede their best hopes for those guys are that they will be solid contributors on a good team. I’ve never come across anybody who views them as cornerstones, and that type of player - the cornerstones - are almost inarguably missing in the system.

Just look at the consensus top prospects in the system besides Porcello and the three I’ve already mentioned. You have guys like Bazardo, Virgil Vasquez and Matt Joyce. Each has their virtues, but I doubt there are a lot of personnel even in the Tigers’ system who think Bazardo or Vasquez will ever be guys who are relied on to do more than hold down the back of the rotation or long relief. Matt Joyce could be a very valuable outfielder as a left-handed power bat who plays a good outfield, but he’s likely the outfield equivalent of Sizemore and Hollimon.

Compounding the problem is many of the players who were supposed to be top-notch talents who just might have “cornerstone” talent haven’t been panning out lately. We had been hearing for a while now that Audy Ciriaco had some real talent behind his putrid production from the last couple seasons. We also heard Wilkin Ramirez could be a special player if he ever lined up the potential on his scouting report with the production on the field.

The lack of production from this type of talented players - in addition to a shortage of these players - is one of the major reasons the Tigers’ system is viewed as near the bottom as far as talent. The Tigers appear to have tried to address this problem by drafting players like Rick Porcello, Brandon Hamilton and Cale Iorg, and spending more money to sign top international talent. Until the new additions prove themselves, though, a turnaround for the Tigers’ farm may require breakthroughs from players like Ciriaco and Ramirez.

Well, to varying degrees, that’s where we’re seeing some room for hope. I fully acknowledge it’s ridiculous to give performance to this point of the season a weight equal to the past two or three seasons. After all, we’re still at a point where a single game can have a monumental effect on the look of a player’s season. However, I think what we can do as hopeful Tiger fans is look for progress. For both of these three players, I think there is enough progress for hope. At the very least, there is enough progress to warrant a watchful eye.

Audy Ciriaco

We’ll begin a player I suspect a lot of prospect watchers have given up on, Audy Ciriaco. Coming into the season I saw two factors working against Audy Ciriaco when his status as a prospect is being considered. First, and most obvious, his numbers the last two seasons have been undeniably bad. As a 19-year old in the GCL, he put up a line of .222/.260/.350. Last year in West Michigan, he couldn’t even match that as he hit .224/.253/.311. Scary stuff.

The second thing working against Ciriaco was his playing a position where the Tigers had a lot of up-and-comers. The 2007 draft produced two of those players in Cale Iorg and Danny Worth. Those two were already given the starting shortstop jobs at the two levels immediately above Ciriaco, so it’s difficult not to mentally push him aside in their favor. Making it worse for Ciriaco is the fact that the depth chart doesn’t stop there. Mike Hollimon has shown the ability to play some shortstop and once he’s healthy again, the Tigers are likely to give Brent Dlugach another look.

So in a weak farm system, Ciriaco has the bad fortune of playing one of the only positions where there is actually some depth. So what is he doing to work against these obstacles?

Shortstop, 6′3, 195 lbs, Bats: R

Year	Lvl	PA	AVG	OBP	ISO	BB%	K%	BABIP
2005	Rk	164	.250	.299	.171	6.1	28.0	.324
2006	Rk	187	.217	.258	.120	4.8	16.0	.241
2007	A	460	.224	.254	.087	3.9	17.0	.264
2008	A	43	.233	.283	.209	7.0	4.7	.225

As you can see, the batting average isn’t what’s coming around. The good new there is he’s making good contact, since he has only struck out twice so far this season. It stands to reason over the course of the season his luck will improve when it comes to ground outs becoming singles. Of course, it also stands to reason his strikeout rate will probably approach a level closer to the rate he’s established over the past three seasons.

For that reason, I’m glad his contact rate isn’t the area where he’s shown the most progress at the plate. That distinction falls to his power hitting, which finally appears to be developing to a level more in line with his frame. After showing almost no extra-base power in 2007, Ciriaco is finally starting to pepper the outfield a bit.

Again, it’s still very, very early to stamp Ciriaco’s career officially revived. But he’s still just twenty years old, so if his career curve is making a turn upward there’s a lot of time for growth. Last year I took a stance of “I’ll believe it when I see it” on Ciriaco and talk of his potential. I’m still a long way from believing, but I’m hoping this could be the early stages of seeing.

Wilkin Ramirez

If we stick to the theme of things working against these prospects, they are pretty easy for Ramirez as well. His most glaring problem was a severe discrepancy in the number of his walks compared to his strikeouts. At least as important was an inability to stay healthy.

This was a problem not only because you have to stay on the field to contribute, but because his time lost was lost development. That first problem was one of many signs Ramirez’s development time was crucial.

Year	Lvl	PA	AVG	OBP	ISO	BB%	K%	BABIP
2003	Rk	213	.275	.319	.175	6.1	23.9	.347
2005	A	541	.262	.317	.148	6.5	26.4	.338
2006	A+	263	.257	.303	.127	3.8	26.2	.279
2007	A+	343	.273	.315	.141	5.8	25.1	.345
	AA	133	.215	.273	.091	6.0	28.6	.296
2008	AA	61	.298	.344	.246	6.6	29.5	.405

As Billfer said in an IM conversation we had a week or so ago, 2007 was big for Ramirez just because he stayed healthy and held his own at the plate. In other words, we can live with his production staying relatively flat just because he was able to stay on the field and hopefully learn some things as a player.

If we accept it was important for Ramirez to just be on the field and learn from his experience, maybe it’s not too far a leap to hope the production he’s shown to this point in 2008 is a realization of his true level of talent.

Of course, even if you buy that argument it’s not all rainbows and fluffy kittens for Ramirez. He’s still striking out 4.5 times for each of his walks, and his batting average is still dependent on a BABIP that is likely unsustainable. That said, he’s showing a level of power that makes those problems much less of a concern than when he was struggling to drive the ball. If he can keep working in this direction, make good use of his speed on the bases, and turn in solid outfield defense his stock could rise quickly.

Summary

If these two show continued development in 2008, they could be a big part of the Tigers’ farm picking itself up by its boot straps. It’s much easier to envision Ramirez helping the big league club in the near future, but either one could help by improving their trade stock. Another possibility would be improving their standing with the Tigers so they’d feel more comfortable moving another prospect who plays the same position and could fetch more on the market.

The Tigers have been accused of mortgaging their future to help the big league club. Wouldn’t it be a fantastic surprise if their farm system allowed them to bail out their major league squad?

This entry was posted on Friday, April 18th, 2008 at 4:43 pm and is filed under wilkin ramirez, audy ciriaco, Prospects. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.