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What you might expect from Eddie Bonine

I expect a rush of searches for the name, Eddie Bonine, in the near future as Tiger fans flock the internet to figure out who this guy is who is most likely to replace Dontrelle Willis (for the time being) in the rotation. In response to this anticipated rush, I’m going to give my thoughts on him and what he’s done since joining the Tiger organization after the minor league portion of the 2005 Rule Five draft.

We’ll begin with his stuff. He’s big at 6′5″, and is listed at 220 pounds. He works with a fastball that reportedly ranges from 88-91 mph, and complements it with a knuckler. Now, I just recently saw Bonine pitch in person. I think he touched 90 once and the rest was 87-89 or obviously an offspeed pitch. As for the knuckler, that thing is crazy. Have you ever looked at a digital clock and done the motorboat thing with your lips? Well if you do, it you will notice the digital numbers seem to kind of dance before your eyes. That’s kind of what Bonine’s knuckler looked like the day I saw him and I wasn’t doing the motorboat thing with my lips - well, not every time. I don’t know what the pitch looks like to a hitter, but I wouldn’t want to have to try to hit it.

Unfortunately, the day I saw him not much was working for him and he was tagged to the tune of 11 hits in just 2+ innings of work. It was his second straight bad outing, and three of his last four starts have been a little shaky as he’s given up 30 hits, 18 runs and 7 walks in 19 innings. There are a number of things alarming about those numbers. First of all, four starts covered only 19 innings. Secondly, and more importantly, those 19 innings (about a quarter of his total) represent 37% of his total hits allowed this season, 47% of his runs and 50% of his walks. Hopefully the Tigers aren’t leaning in his direction based on last month’s Baseball America.

The good news with Bonine is overall he’s been a pretty solid pitcher for the organization the last two seasons. He’s walked less than 5% of the batters he’s faced and posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than 3:1. The low walk and strikeout totals leave a lot to the defense, and he helps them out by keeping better than 50% of the balls in play on the ground. That limits the number of home runs he allows, but there also may be some luck in his low home run totals. Only 5% of fly balls became home runs last year and this year it’s more like 6%. I believe the major league average is closer to twice that. If you make that adjustment to his minor league numbers (i.e. double his home runs) with the Tiger organization, he’s suddenly a pitcher they’re no longer considering for a spot in the rotation.

So what do I expect from him if he takes the mound from the Tigers? Well, it depends. If he is able to force down the nerves and throw like he’s capable his low walk rate and high ground ball rate should keep him from a fate like what Virgil Vasquez faced in his major league debut (a Mother’s Day massacre last year). If the nerves get to him and he deviates from the pattern he’s established the last couple years, all bets are off.

If I’m going with my instincts, I’d bet he’ll be one of several starters the Tigers try in this role. He’s given up four homers in his last five starts so those home run rates are already seeing some regression to the mean, and jumping up to the majors isn’t likely to reverse that trend. To be honest, I’m just hoping he pitches well enough to hold the spot until the Tigers happen across a more appealing option. Once they find it, hopefully Bonine will have given them enough good innings to where they feel comfortable using him the next time they’re in a pinch.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm and is filed under eddie bonine. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.