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Pending Pinstripes
Where Will They End Up?
As we prepare our top-30 prospects, I’d like to think about Baseball America. Usually I don’t like to think about Baseball America, but one good thing they tend to do is rank prospects. I’m a crazy Type-A, so I like my rankings.
It’s a matter of pride to be ranked on BA’s top-100 list. BA is the “industry standard” of prospect ranking. Who will be on that list for the Yankees?
Definitely:
- Joba Chamberlain
- Ian Kennedy
- Jose Tabata
- Austin Jackson
Good Chance:
- Alan Horne
- Jesus Montero
- Humberto Sanchez
- Andrew Brackman
- Dellin Betances
Maybe:
- David Robertson
- Kevin Whelan
- Francisco Cervelli
I’m basing this off what BA has said in the past about the prospects. Last year, the Rockies led the list with 8 prospects in the top 100. The Yankees had 5. The Yankees could easily beat that this year - 9 is conceivable, with an outside shot at 10.
Joba Chamberlain will certainly top the list. It’s hard to see them rating him below anyone but Homer Baily - and even then, I’d complain about that ranking a lot. David Price? I’d take Joba any day. He’ll rank below Upton (is he still rookie eligible), possibly Maybin, possible Longoria, or someone like Colby Rasmus. Franklin Morales too.
Basically, Joba has a good shot near the top spot. Ian Kennedy and Jose Tabata will likely finish late-teens to twenties. Austin Jackson could really land anywhere - depending on how ambitious BA wants to be. In the past, they’ve been less than ecstatic about Jackson, but maybe they’ll rush to correct themselves.
The other guys will all be in the 80-100 range, unless BA feels like being adventurous. I’m not sure what they’ll interpret from Betances this year, but I think that they’ll ere on the side of raw stuff. From Montero, BA has been raving about him (despite being as negative as anyone in the prospect world) since the GCL season started, so I predict that he’ll be there. It’s hard to bet against the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, so I’d expect Horne. Humberto Sanchez? If healthy, he’s up there with Kennedy and Tabata, but we run the risk of BA straight-out forgetting about him over the long year.
It’ll be interesting. The Pending Pinstripes Rankings are more important though!
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25 Responses to “Where Will They End Up?”
October 17th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
EJ, i find it hard to believe that humberto(on the list last year), dellin(on the list last year), and Horne(eastern league pitcher of the year) wont be on the list… does it really change that much from year to year?
October 17th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Adam - Tommy John Surgery can make him take a hit. I think that he’ll be there, but they certainly have justification to (temporarily at least) kick him from the list.
October 17th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
* Alan Horne - should make it
* Francisco Cervelli - #3 catching prospect - I would hope he makes it - not a great hitter but he is a catcher
* Corona - outside shot - decent hitter for a shortstop and nice level for his age
* Jesus Montero - too young - outside chance
* Humberto Sanchez - too many injury concerns
* Andrew Brackman - too big an injury concern
* Dellin Betances - too many injury concerns
* David Robertson - not lights out enough as a reliever
* Kevin Whelan - gimme a break - control stinks
October 17th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
Cohen -
An interesting thing to think about when you think about Montero on BA’s ranking. He was #2 overall in a very deep pool of their GCL ranking.
October 17th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Should make:
Joba
Kennedy
Tabata
Jackson
Horne
Cervilla
Montero
I doubt more that 1 of brackman,sanchez, or dellin makes it.
October 17th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
I don’t see Brackman or Sanchez making it (they will probably take a wait and see approach until they start pitching again), but I do think Betances should be in the back end of the top 100. It’s possible Cervelli could get left out, but I think he should be on there as well.
October 17th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
What can be expected from Humberto Sanchez?
October 17th, 2007 at 9:29 pm
Wowza, you guys (as in not just you EJ) are really over-rating some of the Yankees prospects.
Jay Bruce has the number 1 spot locked up, you can take that to the bank. After that will be Joba, Maybin, Longoria, Buchholz, Bailey, Kershaw and probably Rasmus, in some order (Upton isn’t rookie eligible anymore, neither is Morales).
IPK probably fits in somewhere in the 20’s, and Tabata the 30s or possibly even 40s (hand injury plus lack of power). Jackson has a good shot, but it’ll be on the back half of the list somewhere. Montero will be on there, just not sure where.
After that the best chance belongs to Horne, but your talking like the number 95 or 96 spot. Brackman has no chance with TJ, ditto Humberto. Betances was hurt so he’ll be out after ranking #100 last year. Cervelli has no shot (not even sure he’s one the Yanks top 10 prospects), Robertson has no shot, Whelan has no shot, Miranda has no shot.
Five Yankees on the list is just about right. Their system is good, but it’s not 8 or 9 top 100 prospects good.
October 17th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
I disagree.
I listed all these guys as possibilities, because I think that stars can align for each of them to be included. That doesn’t mean that I think it is likely.
Your top-4 will definitely make it. Now, let’s take a look at the others.
Alan Horne - Eastern League pitcher of the year. Good stuff, very likely top-100.
Montero - Rave reviews from the BA people covering the GCL this year. He’ll sneak in the back end.
Tabata - I don’t think that he’s dropped that much. A ton of names have fallen off last year’s top-100 list - most of the top 20 have graduated. I think he’ll end up in the 20s.
Brackman - BA has done weirder things in the past. If the Yankees can make the decision to give the guy a MLB contract, I think that BA (who absolutely lauded him in the past) could make him a top 100 prospect.
Robertson/Whelan - Judging by how Melancon almost made their top-100 last year, you never know.
Sanchez - He was ranked in the 50s last year. With his impending return, I think that they’ll at least think about him sneaking in.
October 17th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
Something also to think about - By my count, there are roughly 30-35 prospects coming off the top-100 list from last year.
October 17th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
EJ, what is your take on our bullpen next year? i think that sanchez should be a reliever after having tommy john, i think that chase wright could be a good lefty option, ohlendorf, karstens, igawa, clip, jackson, edwar, bruney, etc…
all these guys could be bullpen options. how do you think the yanks will use them?
October 17th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
Don’t count on Sanchez being ready right away. He’ll be only about a year off Tommy John - think of him as a 2008 option, maybe late 2007.
Adam - I’m really uncertain. I know that Mariano and Farnsworth will be there. Beyond that, you’re guess is as good as mine. I’m assuming that Chris Britton will be there. Beyond that, we’re looking at the best pitchers to show up in spring training - Scott Patterson, Ohlendorf, T.J. Beam, etc etc. Take the Padres method - find hard throwers who throw strikes and try them out.
Starter conversions are possible from Horne, White, Marquez, Wright, and Igawa. Again, it’ll be a “who looks best in the spring” decision.
David Robertson is probably the sleeper of the group, though they’d have to be pretty desperate to chance that right out of spring training.
October 17th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
I agree with Mike A. There is a lot of over-rating going on. Chamberlin, Kennedy, Tabata, Jackson, maybe no one else..
October 17th, 2007 at 11:49 pm
agree with everything Mike A. said except I think jackson will be in the top 50, especially if he continues to put up good numbers in winter ball.
October 18th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Chamberlain, Kennedy, Tabata obviously. Jackson has been arguably better than Tabata recently, and some pretty big name scouts agree, so I’d say that he goes on. Horne has an outside shot at top-100, though he is overrated. Cervelli had a decent shot but near the end of the season he wasn’t so out.
October 18th, 2007 at 1:28 am
my guess of how the 08 bullpen will windup
Mo
Farns
Horne
Rameriez
Britton
Chase Wright
Veras or Ohlendorf
October 18th, 2007 at 5:15 am
I haven’t seen any mentions of Cox or Melancon as possible bullpen options by mid-2008. Is it just too unrealistic to expect them to regain form in time to help the big league team out next year? I know neither of them have had very much pro experience, but they were both suppose to be near-ready before they were injured. Sanchez’s Tommy John came after the former two surgeries, and people are already talking about him coming back early to pitch out of the bullpen next year—though that could be ignorance on those speculators’ part.
Also, I thought Cox had just broken his hand, but apparently he had elbow surgery to have a ligament repaired. Did he also break his hand at about the same time, because I’m sure I remembered that.
October 18th, 2007 at 7:47 am
Mike A would probably rank Bowden over Horne.
Horne was the pitcher of the year in the Eastern League this year. Kennedy was minor league pitcher of the year. They’re no-doubt-about-it top prospects.
October 18th, 2007 at 8:20 am
Barry - Cox is a little worrisome because we haven’t heard any real news on him. He also had his surgery a little bit later than Melancon.
On Melancon - Even if he’s back up and running at full capacity, remember that the man has barely pitched in the minor leagues before. He’s not going to shoot straight up to the majors right away.
October 18th, 2007 at 10:25 am
Cox had ligament repair, not replacement, so his recovery time isn’t quite as long as the TJ surgery recipients. Also, prior to the surgery, he indeed broke his pitching hand in a fight, proving that the guy clearly never watched Bull Durham.
October 18th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Why would a player who missed all the 2007 season, or a just drafted player who has never pitched in the minor leagues, even be considered? This must be someone’s idea of a joke.
And no way is Tabata in the ‘teens. Out of all prospects? The guy hit for average, that is all, regardless of the excuse. His speed is down, his weight is up. Austin Jackson has passed him by among top Yankees only prospects.
October 18th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Why would a player who missed all the 2007 season, or a just drafted player who has never pitched in the minor leagues, even be considered? This must be someone’s idea of a joke.
Dellin Betances made the list last year after throwing only a few innings in the GCL(or was it instructional ball) So yes I think a drafted guy will be on the list (David Price should be high up there). As for someone wtih Tommy John, I think they could still make the list but will obviously drop a lot.
October 18th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Bowden over Horne? Puh-lease. Don’t insult my intelligence just because I don’t think Horne is surefire Top 100 material. The EL Pitcher of the Year award is nice, but it’s hardly an indicator of prospect status. In fact, I’m one of the few who still liked Horne after his statistically sucky year in 2006. He’s a good prospect, don’t get me wrong.
Of course there will be drafted guys on the list. Price, Porcello, Moustakas, Vitters, Jarrod Parker, etc will all be in there somewhere, probably the top half.
October 18th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Montero might make it - I seem to recall that BA only has 3-5 catchers per year. Do we really think that he is in that group at this point?
Like the potential, like the performance so far. Not sure if he will be a catcher long term (which impacts how valuable he is). Not sure if he will hit at upper levels.
BA is starting to include risk in these rating as opposed to pure ceiling.
October 18th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
I believe, by the time september comes, melancon, sanchez, robertson, cox, white, ohlendorf, wright and horne can be ready to solidify the bullpen….Imagine all those guys healthy….one can dream, huh? if those guys develop as expected, we’d have one of the best pens in ml
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