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Kevin Goldstein on Yankees Top-11
The much-maligned Kevin Goldstein released his top-11 list of the Yankee’s prospects today. We don’t disagree entirely. The article is subscription only. Goldstein has some really great analysis, even if I disagree with it (no, don’t copy and paste it to the comments, I’ll delete it), so you should subscribe.
The list:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Joba Chamberlain, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Ian Kennedy, RHP
3. Austin Jackson, OF
4. Jose Tabata, OF
5. Alan Horne, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Dellin Betances, RHP
7. Jesus Montero, C
8. Andrew Brackman, RHP
9. Edwar Ramirez, RHP
10. Kelvin DeLeon, OF
Two-Star Prospects
11. Humberto Sanchez, RHP
Discuss. He doesn’t clearly define what a “2 star” or “3 star” prospect is, but at first glance he tends to underrated the bottom half of the list. I’ll be back with more later.
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25 Responses to “Kevin Goldstein on Yankees Top-11”
November 29th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
I’m shocked to see Edwar as a 3-star prospect. A 26 year old reliever with 2.5 pitches, albeit a plus, plus changeup. I’d love to hear Goldstein’s explanation of that one. That said, I think he’s being conservative (and reasonably so) with Brackman, Montero, DeLeon, Betances and Sanchez. All of those are 4 star talents if healthy, and in the cases of Montero and DeLeon, with some higher-level success. He must be very impressed with DeLeon (or his bonus, at least) to rate him at 3 stars without any professional experience. I’m also a little surprised that neither Marquez nor McCutchen were listed as a 2-star prospect, but I can deal with that. Goldstein’s rating of the Yankee system shows what we already knew, that there is impressive depth and talent in the system, and there are young, high-ceiling position players on the rise.
November 29th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Whoops, just realized that they were only doing top 11, so McCutchen and Marquez couldn’t make this list.
When comparing the Yankee list to the Boston list, I was surprised that Ellsbury was a 5-star talent. While he is major league ready and can run and field with the best of them, I’m not sure that his bat has enough upside to make him a 5-star talent. I was also surprised to see Ryan Kalish as a 4-star prospect, given his low level of experience and recent injury history. I’m also not sure Lowrie or Masterson have enough upside nor are they close enough to the majors to be 4-star prospects. Maybe this is Yankee homerism talking, but I would rank all 4 of the Yanks’ 4-star prospects higher than the Red Sox’s 4-star prospects.
November 29th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
I would rank Montero higher as a prospect. Especially since he’s still at catcher, his potential in my opine, is 5 stars.
November 29th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
c’mon, there’s no way Ellsbury should be at the same level as Joba. eh, it doesnt really matter.
November 29th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
I’m with you Eric, I’d take the Yanks’ 4-star guys over the Sox’s 4-star guys any day of the week.
Something looked fishy about this list from the start, but it finally occurred to me that Juan Miranda isn’t on it. How can Edwar be a 3-star prospect while Miranda doesn’t even a mention in the “just missed” section?
November 29th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
Goldstein is a Steven King and Red Sox fan
November 29th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
How is Edwar ahead of say Robertson?
And I did read the stuff on Edwar, and lets just say he’s very optimistic about him and his stuff.
I don’t understand Brackman either, because he’s basically 2 years away from being where he was before the injury (TJ takes one year to recover, and basically another year to be the same pitcher again), and he was a project to begin with.
But if Brackman is on it, why isn’t Melancon? I’m just a bit puzzled by this list.
And the Yankees do get a slight knock because of the preception that Yankee prospects are over-rated. Example would be the Twins top prospect according to BP Ben Revere (four star) has great speed, good plate coverage, and can play CF really well. Sounds a lot like Brett Gardner, but he doesn’t get mentioned anywhere. I’m not saying Gardner is better or equal to Revere, but he’s close, and one is a four star prospect, and the other isn’t mentioned.
November 29th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Agree on Edwar and am also confused on Horne being on the same level as the other guys. huh, Not sure Horne should be on same level as those other guys. He’s a good 2-3 years older than all the others. Whereas, he’s perhaps a little overage for his level, the other guys are underage.
Has anyone here seen Horne pitch and/or have a statistical take on him? Some guys seem to love him and put him with IPK, while some group him w/ Clippard, Marquez, and McCutchen. Who’s his major league comp?
November 29th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Horne has a live arm with tremendous movement on all his pitches. I believe he throws harder than Marquez; certainly, harder than McCutcheon and Clippard. The only question with Horne is whether he can fully command his impressive array of pitches. His walks in AA last year, however, were quite respectable. I believe Horne is an excellent prospect– not at the level of Hughes or Joba, but a fair bet to be a good #3 starter or set up man out of the pen. His stuff reminds me a bit of Don Gullett — an extremely talented pitcher who, I believe, went something like 14-4 one year for the Yanks before going down with injuries
November 29th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
I am sorry but this list is a job of an absolute amateur. I know Goldstien is a big name with BA but this list is a steaming glob of garbage. What the hell are these stars…is each star an eilte score in a certain category? if so how in the name of Pete is Ellsbury a 5???? Edwar is a what and Humberto Sanchez is a what? and Melancon is what? Did he go by hype or…did he just pick Brackman, and Deleon because he has some kind of real information to go on? What are saying EJ…you agree with what…this list is a freaking mess and his explanations are completely full of double talking generalizations.
November 29th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
id take 25 yankee prospects before edwar
November 30th, 2007 at 12:40 am
I’ll get my full analysis up tomorrow. My Ukraine paper is finally finished… I’m going to sleep now…
November 30th, 2007 at 12:59 am
I think everyone’s feelings on Edwar is obviously skewered by his up/down (mostly down) performance upon being called up last year. Don’t forget he was named MiLB relief pitcher of the year and his minors stats are quite simply…sick.
November 30th, 2007 at 6:16 am
Regarding Kelvin DeLeon, I’m really surprised he’s on this list as a 16 year old with no pro experience. The scouts are mixed on him. Most compare him to Melky Cabrera, not quite having the range to play center, and not having enough power to play a corner outfield spot. Mark Newman disagrees:
“I wouldn’t say he’s at all like Melky Cabrera, however,” Yankees senior vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman said. “Body-wise, he’s more like Ruben Rivera. This guy’s got all kinds of potential. He’s an above-average to plus runner and he could be a big power guy.
“He’s probably a right fielder with a plus-plus arm, but he could be an average to slightly above-average center fielder also. We’ll play him in different spots out there, but he’s probably going to be limited to right just to allow the bat to play.”
It’s very, very early to include DeLeon among the Yankees’ top 11 prospects.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:26 am
So Phil Hughes is not even in the top 11? That is all that I needed to see. The rest of the list means nothing because if Hughes isn’t on it, then this guys doesn’t know what he is talking about.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:31 am
I’ve read many of Goldstiens chats at BP and I’m pretty sure he is actually a Yankees fan, also Steven Goldman who does the Pinstripe Blog over at Yes talks about him alot. Any way back to the list, over at Yankees Scout, they interviewed the minor league hitting instucor for the Yankees and he said De Leon has ridiculous power and for a 16 year old, yeah 16, the sky’s the limit. So I understand why Goldstien has him ranked here.
What I don’t understand is why Humberto is not getting any respect by anyone. I understand that he has had some injury issues, but the success rate of TJ is much better these days and if I’m correct he started the futures game two years ago. If he stays healthy I put him as a dark horse candidate for the second half of 2008.
Lastly, the ranking of Edwar here is odd, I know his minor league numbers where insane, but I know what I saw in the majors and it was good not great.
November 30th, 2007 at 8:51 am
Tim, Hughes is no longer rookie eligible, ergo, he’s not a prospect anymore. I’m guessing thats why he’s not included.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:17 am
It should be noted, Tim, that Goldstein deemed Hughes the #1 Yankee under the age of 25.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Do the Yankees have any high expectations for Reggie Corona? These rumors about Cano being traded is worrisome.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Yeah, Hughes isn’t on there because he’s not a prospect anymore. He ranks at #1, right above Joba in the under-25 (as of opening day 2008) list. I like what Goldstein had to say about Hughes in that article, btw (that it’s crazy to think that he’s anything but a stud, despite the ~4.5 era. Dude had injuries to deal with and was adjusting to the majors at 21).
I agree that the ranking of Edwar raised my eyebrows (I like him and all, but damn), as did the rankings for Brackman & DeLeon. I like that Frankie Cervelli has made it onto the radar screen (listed as “just missed”).
Goldstein might be wrong about some (or all!) of this stuff, but I don’t think it would be due to bias.
December 1st, 2007 at 12:06 pm
I dig Alan Horne, seen him pitch a couple of times, kids got all types of talent and after arm surgery they’ve built him back up
December 1st, 2007 at 9:39 pm
it’s REALLY hard to choose, but i would think that at the moment, Robinson Cano should be the highest Yankee under 25 guy. i mean he’s pretty much proven everything while still have plenty to go to.
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:02 pm
Uhhhh can I get a WTF?
How in the heck is Joba Chamberlain a better prospect than Phil Hughes? Hughes has control and moderate velocity, while Joba is mostly velo with adequate control.
And I want to know your opinion on the Santana mess. I personally believe it would be the pinnacle of all stupid mistakes if the Yanks pull the trigger
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:04 pm
I made a big boo boo and didn’t remember that Hughes is technically not a prospect anymore. D’OH! Betances is better than 3 stars, way too projectable to be only three. And I love, absolutely love, what Jackson did this year, but he’s got to prove it at higher levels before I truly believe in his ability
December 19th, 2007 at 1:03 am
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