MVN - a New York Yankees minors blog
Pending Pinstripes
Eric’s Top 30
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Austin Jackson
3. Jose Tabata
4. Alan Horne
5. Jesus Montero
6. Dellin Betances
7. Jeff Marquez
8. Francisco Cervelli
9. Jairo Heredia
10. Zach McAllister
11. Carmen Angelini
12. Brad Suttle
13. Ryan Pope
14. Dan McCutchen
15. Juan Miranda
16. Brett Gardner
17. George Kontos
18. Eric Duncan
19. Reegie Corona
(20. Tyler Clippard)
21. Austin Romine
22. Abraham Almonte
23. Kevin Whelan
24. Dave Robertson
25. Marcos Vechionacci
26. Damon Sublett
27. Justin Snyder
28. Brandon Laird
29. Prilys Cuello
30. Chase Wright
31. Michael Dunn
I think Kennedy, Jackson and Tabata are really 1a, 1b and 1c. I put Tabata 3 only because I want to see how he bounces back from hamate bone surgery. I think I was bullish on some of the younger guys, but I’m willing to take some risks on upside. Joba Chamberlain was not included because EJ and I believed he will start next season in the majors, but he would have been #1 easily. We also waited to rank the TJ guys to see how they came back from injury, but I think they would all be on the list otherwise. Ross Ohlendorf would probably have slotted in around #12 or so, but I didn’t include him because I assumed he would be starting next season in the major league bullpen. What does everyone think? Was I too optimistic on the young guys (especially Heredia)? Am I ranking the relievers too low? Let me know what you think.
This entry was posted
on Thursday, December 20th, 2007 at 5:54 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
POLL
ARCHIVE
38 Responses to “Eric’s Top 30”
December 20th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
I think I agree with most of it, but why did you place Romine so low, Eric? I definitely think he has a higher upside than Cervelli, although he doesn’t have much of a track record. He definitely deserves to be ahead of Duncan (who I think should be a bit lower).
That’s the only real qualm I have about the list. Great job!
December 20th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
I think Eric Duncan is a little too high, hehas not done well. Tyler Clippard was traded to the nationals, are you ranking the guy we received in the trade.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
Nice list Eric. Well balanced.
I do think that Heredia is being very over rated at #9.
It would be one thing if he had truly electric stuff right now. But he doesn’t. His fastball is 92-93 and yes it could get better as he fills out but often those anticipated mph never come (see Zach McCallister).
Heredia’s outstanding trait seems to be his control for his age. It’ll be interesting to see how he progresses. It’s hard to say what his upside truly is because if you want to put him very high then I think you have to make assumptions about him adding velocity.
Also, I’m personally not sure if Marquez is a better prospect than McCutcheon. I know Marquez is considerably younger but McCutcheon has better stuff and I think it may project better to the majors.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
I like the list. You guys did a good job. Who would have been #30 taking Clippard out of the equation?
December 20th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
You and I basically agree. I probably overrate the Robertson/Whelan duo a little much, but the gaudy stats interest me.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
Thanks Eric
Brad Suttle at no12 can you give us your thoughts for that ranking
December 20th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
Great list - generally agree.
1-4 are obvious in some order - 1-3 are too close to quibble either way
Montero at 5 I think is a stretch - he has possibly the highest ceiling of this bunch but the most risk of anyone in the top 10 given his limited experience against big league pitching (GCL stats are not highly predictive)
Betances at 6 - I think is a bit too high given health concerns, control concerns and limited experience. Great upside though.
Cervelli at 8 - love it. Pretty good hitting, young catcher.
Heredia and McAllister love them being so high.
Marquez at 7 - he is way, way overrated. Low k rate and GB/FB ratio is not high enough to rank him as a groundballer. Check his stats vs Wang when he was in the minors.
Suttle - way too high. He stunk in Hawaii and has health concerns given his diabetes (he has a bad version according to my wife the Doctor). Also can he hit with a wooden bat?
Angelini - too high given lack of experience.
Duncan and Vechionacci - can this please be the last year for these guys after they stink again?
Corona - I would rank higher - great plate discipline for a middle infielder, young for his level.
Cuello - I would rank ahead of Almonte based on his GCL stats. Nice power. He has big upside if he can hit pitching at higher levels.
Robertson I would rank of Whelan given that he can find the strike zone.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
When I originally made this list, it was much earlier in the Hawaiian League season, and Suttle hadn’t really played that much, so I didn’t put too much stock into his performance. I was mostly ranking him based on the 1.3 million that the Yanks were willing to give him.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Switch Sublett and Suttle. Move Romine up a bit, move Duncan and Corona down a bit.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
I do agree that I probably over-ranked some of the guys with minimal experience, but I was really trying to emphasize upside (aka, Montero and Heredia in the top 10, Almonte at 22). As for who I would put in at #30, in Clippard’s place, I’m not entirely sure. Maybe Michael Dunn would be a good guy to put in there. I’m happy with where I ranked Romine because he was never considered a 1st-round prospect, and I’d like to see what he can do with the bat before I move him up.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
Of the three lists, I’d have to say that I agree with this one the most. I think it’s great to see Pople and Heredia so high. Wouldn’t it be great if we could see a few more lefties on this list though?
December 20th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
CB:
I don’t think #9 is too high for Jairo Heredia. Yankee officials are very excited about his future, some think he might become our best pitching prospect in a year or two. From BA:
“Not big but wiry strong, Heredia pumps out fastballs from 91-93 mph, touching some 94s along the way. He has a loose, easy delivery and adds and subtracts from his fastball, which he commands to all four quadrants of the strike zone. His slurvy breaking ball needs to get tighter, though it shows flashes of being a plus pitch with solid downward rotation.
“He just reminds me of Pedro Martinez when I was with the Dodgers in ‘93,” Reed said. “You see the frame and wonder where it all comes from. This guy is the same way.”
His changeup is still a work in progress, as he’s refining his arm action and grip to command it more consistently. Heredia morphed into a two-pitch pitcher at times, and he’ll have to gain more confidence in his changeup if he’s going to profile as a starter.”
17 years old. Loose-easy delivery. Great control/command. Plus stuff.
What’s not to like?
December 20th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Matthew Cohen:
The reason for Jeff Marquez’s low GB rate, was that, this past season, he focused on throwing more 4 seamers than Sinkers… and even then, his GB% didn’t change all that much (54% compared to 60% in 06). I wouldn’t worry about him.
Ohh and the reason for his low K rate, was that, he focused on developing his curveball, so he started using it as his primary off-speed pitch. Once he starts going to his plus change more, he’ll see his K rate increase.
A top 10 prospect in my mind.
December 20th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Don’t get me wrong - I like Heredia a lot. You couldn’t ask for more from an international signing. But its very hard to make a lot out of GCL numbers and part of the concern with him moving forward is injury.
He’s supposedly does have a narrow frame. That may or may not predispose him to injuries. He’s very, very young so he’ll fill out, but I don’t know if he’s ever going to fill into that classic pitchers frame that you like to see. like a Hughes. Sure he could be like Pedro or Oswalt but I do think those kind of assumptions have to raise some concerns. That’s a lot to ask of a 17 year old.
Heredia’s most outstanding characteristic right now does seem to be command. But given how little discipline GCL hitters have its hard to know what to make of BB/ 9, etc.
It’s one thing to project a guy like Betances very high based on GCL number and physical potential. You Betances great GCL numbers from two years agotogether with his fantastic arm and physical projectability based on his frame and he becomes a prospect that does rank highly. Same thing with Montero - he already has the physical tools that would make him an outstanding power hitter. You don’t need to project him too much physically (other than worrying about him getting too big, particularly to catch). With Heredia I think there’s more uncertainty.
I’m excited about Heredia. Personally I’m more wait and see with him. I think we’ll know more about him after he hits charleston two years from now (or if he hits a very strong period of physical growth where he gets much bigger).
December 20th, 2007 at 10:50 pm
I think Whelan should be higher. His K/9 and H/9 are absolutely insane. His BB/9 also improved upon his return to Trenton after working with Nardi down in Tampa.
December 20th, 2007 at 10:55 pm
CB:
I agree with everything you just said.
One thing that Heredia has going for him though, is that he has VERY wide shoulders, scouts love that (sign of future durability). PP.com has Heredia listed at 6′1″ 170 lbs, while MiLB.com has him at 6′1″ 189 lbs, either way, at 17 years old, he should grow between 2 to 3 inches in a couple of years. But let’s say, worst case scenario, he remains the same… I wouldn’t consider a 6′1″ 190 lbs frame to be “small”.
Btw I think he might start the season at Charleston next year.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
No Breadyn Pruitt? And I think heredia is too high, he has too far to go before he’s really worth anything.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:58 pm
This list is probably the most accurate of the three (sorry EJ and Ashish, lol) and i agree that relievers should be rated low. The best relievers in the majors are usually failed starters (take Mariano Rivera for example), so whenever a prospect is drafted and/or brought up as strictly a reliever, there’s a lot of questions with them (like Craig Hansen). Until Kevin Whelan and David Robertson, who supposedly has very mediocre stuff, prove themselves at AAA, there’s always going to be question marks. An exception to this would be Mark Melancon, who already has two plus pitches and could rise up the ranks very quickly.
Dan McCutchen should not be that high though, he was pretty old for his league and has fringe stuff. Him and Romine should be switched.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:39 am
Malcard, this is also my favorite list (except for Heredia) of the three. Just a note, Whelan has unbelievable stuff, he just can’t control it.
And I’ll say it again… no Braedyn Pruitt? The kid’s a machine.
December 21st, 2007 at 3:22 am
Yeah but Tiger was in the 65 range with better k/9 rates in the minors.
Marquez didn’t have a ton of K’s in Tampa either.
I don’t know - I just don”t get the warm and fuzzies about Marquez. Top prospects can adjust their pitch selection without a big drop in results.
He sounds like a long reliever to me. Which is fine, you need those.
December 21st, 2007 at 3:24 am
Pruitt - a 22 yr old 3B at Rookie ball with no power (100 ISOP).
pass.
December 21st, 2007 at 5:12 am
agree with others that Whelan should be higher. crazy k/9 and h/9 should put him in the teens.
Marquez and Duncan could be lower.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:22 am
what about cox, sanchez, brackman, and melancon?
December 21st, 2007 at 10:17 am
EJ and I deliberately decided to leave them off the list just because we weren’t sure how they were going to bounce back from TJ. If healthy, Sanchez and Brackman would be top 10, Melancon probably top 15, and Cox top 20.
December 21st, 2007 at 10:40 am
They’ll be eligible again when they return to the minors. We’ll know by then how well they are recovering. Don’t buy into the bull of “Its only TJ surgery. It has a high success rate” Tons of players never recover.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Switch Sublett and Suttle.
And move Miranda up. He mashes righties and should be in the Bronx by June, perhaps as part of a platoon with Shelly at first?, where he’ll do well.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:26 pm
why is suttle ranked?
December 21st, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Why is Tabata ranked in the top five? This list should be based on 2007 performance. For Tabata, it was a strange year. No power, hamate bone removed, 220-225 pounds, loss of speed. This does not translate into a top five. It is wishful thinking and hope, not a realistic rating. Maybe after 2008 he’ll be back as the number one prospect, but he has a lot to prove and does not deserve a top five based on the 2007 season.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:57 pm
The list is not just based on the 2007 season, but on a combination of track records, current performance, and ceiling. We’re looking at the best prospects for future major league success, not rating this past season. Tabata, despite battling hand injuries all season, hit over .300 in high-A as an 18 year-old. I don’t see how that doesn’t make him a top 5 prospect.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:37 pm
I like this list a lot. The love for Ryan Pope touches my heart.
But I agree with those who have questioned your Suttle ranking. Upside is great, but he’s had a few chances (albeit brief ones) to hit with wooden bats, and he’s embarassed himself. There haven’t even been flashes of adequacy. Until he shows something I don’t see how you can justify putting him above the mid-high 20s.
December 21st, 2007 at 4:32 pm
The posters at his blog are pretty unanimous in ranking the Sox farm system 3rd behind the Rays and the Reds.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/20/13249/370
1 Tampa Bay
2 Reds
3 Boston
4. Dodgers
5. Yankees
6. Oakland
7. Padres
8. Rockies
9. Rangers
10. Royals
December 21st, 2007 at 6:32 pm
Can the next person that asks why Sanchez, Brackman, Cox and Melancon aren’t ranked please leave me their address so I can go to his or her house and hit them over the head with a baseball bat.
That’s all I got to say right now!
December 21st, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Suttle is going to come into this season and just mash, you can write that down now. He basically signed and went straight to winter ball where he doesn’t have the excellent Yankee coaches there trying to tweak his swing to adapt to wooden bats. Give him a month and he’ll be right where he was before the draft, remember that winter ball is an extremely small sample size
December 21st, 2007 at 7:13 pm
I agree that it’s an extremely small sample size. And so is the Cape. Combined, they’re still a failry small sample size. But it adds up. And the degree to which he failed across those two samples is pretty astounding.
I’m not saying he might not be as good as everyone says. I hope you’re right about him. I just think that he’s failed enough with wooden bats that he has substantially more to prove even than other untested draftees.
December 21st, 2007 at 10:30 pm
You take into account a .300 average in Tampa but dismiss all other concerns with Tabata. That is convenient, and rather silly. His so-called track record is quite unproven actually, even if he is quite young. Baseball is littered with the corpses of super 17 year old prospects who never matched the hype. So to base Tabata’s potential on his low A ball performance, and having a .300 average in Tampa, and ignoring all the negatives is spin, plain and simple. But it isn’t a proper evaluation.
December 22nd, 2007 at 1:34 am
The concerns are real, but Tabata is still talented enough to rank this high in spite of them. These concerns may be why he’s not #1, or why he’s not a top 25 prospect in all of baseball, but they are not enough for me to bump him far down this list.
December 22nd, 2007 at 2:01 am
Unless you’re going to put five guys ahead of Tabata and justify why they have similar ceilings and are similarly ahead of their age group yet have a more proven track record, then I don’t see your point. Back up your argument, please. Don’t just argue against Tabata, argue for someone else. Eric put Jose just about where every other writer has. Yes he has things he needs to work on. Yes he’s only in high-A ball, but all prospects have question marks attached - that’s why they’re prospects. Horne is 24 and only in AA, Marquez is 23 and is a sinkerballer w/out great gb ratios. Suttle, Pope, Angelini, Montero, Betances? None have proven even as much as Jose. I wonder if some fans’ expectations for our prospects has become as cockeyed as the (not too distant) past hatred for A-Rod.
December 22nd, 2007 at 2:37 am
Don, out of curiosity, who would you rank ahead of Tabata?
Leave a comment