MVN - a New York Yankees minors blog
Pending Pinstripes
Positional Depth: Shortstop
Apologies for my absence. It’s been a long two weeks.
In an effort to find things to write about while we’re waiting on the season to start, I’d like to take a look at each position in the Yankee system and assess our depth situation. I’m going to experiment with the format of this series, so let me know what you think of the way it is organized.
MLB Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Age 33, Under Contract until 2010. Jeter is going to have to move away from short some time soon. Any statistical measure pegs him as a terrible shortstop, with the team losing somewhere between 10 and 20 runs per year versus an average shortstop under Jeter’s glove, and the more traditional folk are starting to come around. The Yankees will obviously resign Jeter after 2010, but I think that the new contract may be a sufficient symbolic change to move him to left field or some place else. Pete Rose did it, so Derek Jeter can too.
Immediately Available: Wilson Betemit, 26 and Alberto Gonzalez, 25 (5.5 B). Gonzalez (who, despite being 25, has had a relatively short professional baseball career) may well prove himself a strong enough hitter to man the spot. Even slightly below average hitting would make him an asset at the position, as he’d be among the best in the majors at the position. One thing to worry about: Gonzalez hasn’t fielded as well under pressure (when major league eyes are watching him) as he did in the minors. Betemit would be useful for no more than a few games at the position.
Other Immediate Options: Cody Ransom (4.5 C). Morgan Ensberg, Chris Woodword (3.0 B).
Available 2009: Reegie Corona (7.0 C), 21. Corona will likely be sent back to Double-A, as he didn’t hit very well. At the earliest Corona could replace an injured Derek Jeter in 2009. He’s not nearly as safe a pick as one would want for the Yankee’s immediate replacement, because there are questions surrounding his ability to play the position, but Corona could function as a post-Jeter replacement in the Bronx.
Also Available: Ramiro Pena (4.5 D)
Available 2010: Justin Snyder (7.0 C), 21. Snyder is an intriguing prospect. He’s an intelligent, small, compact guy who could take 70+ walks per year, but not hit for much power. Short season numbers are dangerous, but bad players don’t hit .335/.459/.477 in the New York-Penn League.
Also Available: Eduardo Nunez (7.0 D-)
Available 2011: Carmen Angelini (8.0 D). We’re not really sure what his ability level is, but all indications are that Carmen Angelini will definitely be able to remain at the position. 2011 might be a little generous for his ETA, but the year is meant to be “the earliest at best”. The Yankees probably shouldn’t wait that long to find their replacement for Derek Jeter.
Overall Depth Assessment: The Yankees are fairly weak at this position. If Derek Jeter is in fact going to stubbornly stay at short, then this is no problem. They won’t need anyone to play short until Carmen Angelini comes around, or possibly even later. However, a couple of bad injuries could produce a hairy situation for the team, where someone like Cody Ransom is handling the position as a starter. Derek Jeter has proven himself to be fairly healthy, so this is not much of a concern. The real jist of the situation is that no one besides Angelini will likely be a strong enough prospect to knock the captain away from his position.
This entry was posted
on Monday, March 24th, 2008 at 9:25 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
POLL
ARCHIVE
37 Responses to “Positional Depth: Shortstop”
March 24th, 2008 at 11:47 am
I like it, EJ. Maybe when you finish you could create a permanent link to these somewhere on the page.
March 24th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Will do.
March 24th, 2008 at 11:55 am
good format, keep it up.
Can you create a permanent link to the prospect list as well?
March 24th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Hopefully, I’ll get a little link on the right side fairly soon.
March 24th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Yeah the Yankees need other options at SS other then Angelini. I don’t really like to bank mainly on one prospect hoping that he works out because we have no one else for the position.
March 24th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Given the amount of money and organizational depth (a.k.a. trade bait) at Cashman’s disposal, I wouldn’t worry TOO much about that. The Yankees don’t need to replace a homegrown shortstop with another homegrown shortstop.
March 24th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
You guys get me mad. These statistical analyses about Jeter are bogus. Something about not getting to balls in his area. Who’s in the Yankee pressbox judging Jeter’s area? Ozzie Smith? Jeter’s ex-girlfriend’s brother? A Met fan? Luckily, Girardi is the guy calling the shots and there’s no way he’s moving Jeter out of shortstop any time sooner or later. As far as these fielding numbers about Jeter, I really would recommend that you folks start believing your eyes a bit more. This Jeter bashing is nonsense and getting old.
March 24th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
KO–
Girardi himself criticized Jeter’s range in the broadcast booth last season. I suggest you read Tom Tango’s With or Without Derek Jeter article in The Hardball Times 08, and then come back with even a single doubt about Jeter’s defensive ineptitude. The book costs like $15, but that article is worth the cost by itself.
March 24th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
BTW, Tango’s analysis has nothing to do with “balls in his area” as most of the other studies have done. The thing that’s getting old is people ignoring available evidence and claiming that its bogus without offering any reasons.
March 24th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
KO
I like Jeter, I also remember the guys who played shortstop before Jeter.
Espinoza was a no hit, all glove type (he sucked), Tony Fernandez was at the end of his career, and washed up, to the point where he was a no hit all glove guy too (thank god Jeter replaced him).
I’ve watched Jeter for years, and I’ve watched other shortstops, to put it nicely, when it comes to Jeter’s fielding, he is a great hitter. The conversation with Jeter’s glove starts and stops with his hitting, his ability in the clutch, and all of his leadership.
He is a well below average fielder…..and I would take him as my shortstop anyway on any day of the week, and if there is a doubleheader, twice on sunday.
March 24th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
No you don’t have to replace Jeter with a homegrown SS. But where will they be getting their next SS from?
Sure there’s always FA but if take a look at that market in recent years, players are resigning with own teams. Very few players of significance hit the open market. Case in point this FA year (winter 08) is going to be Sabathia and Texiera. That’s it only 2 players of that quality going to the open market. Even though it’s not guaranteed that they will be there. Both can resign with their current teams.
I doubt a guy like Troy Tulowitzki ever becomes a FA.
As far as trading for a SS, what team is going to trade a player of any value that they can use for their team. If it happens the player likely has a lot of question marks such as age. No SS good and young is going to be traded unless you give that other team grade A prospects.
The Yankees need to stock up on some SS prospects in the next couple of years. I don’t want to count only on Angelini to work out.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
I presume that Tom Tango did a comparison with Jeter in and out of the lineup in his book. Jeter’s been in the lineup so frequently, its hard to believe there would be a big enough sample size to make a valid comparison. Please give me the gist of what he said as I have a lot of things that I’d rather spend $15 on. I watch most Yankee games and have not seen balls that I thought that Jeter didn’t get that I thought other shortstops could get. I missed Girardi dissing Jeter’s range and I have to wonder which plays Girardi was talking about.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Derek Jeter does not have good range and has not had even average range for several years.
That said last year was particularly bad because of his knee. He’ll be better but still probably fairly subpar.
You life with it. Shortstop is just that kind of position. It’s about trade offs.
If you want to read one of the analysis that got the whole Jeter is a terrible defensive shortstop argument started it was by Bill James. It’s a good read as James says up front he has a lot of issues with statistical analysis of defense. However, after looking at the evidence he concludes that Jeter is so clearly below average statistically it’s safe to at least assume that he is at least below average to not very good in the field
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp
March 24th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
KO - How often do you see Jeter make a play on balls up the middle? Good shortstops get those.
March 24th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
Doesn’t Bill James work for the Red Sox? Is Jeter really worse defensively then Julio Lugo?
March 24th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
There is one important factor to consider when discussing fielding statistics: the National League. There are substantially more easily-fielded ground balls in the NL than in the AL because of the pitcher, and because of a general penchant for small ball in the Senior Circuit at the bottom of the lineup.
In other words, NL shortstops have juiced Range Factors.
This obviously says nothing about Jeter’s defense when stacked up against the elite defenders in the AL. But one has to consider a factor like the AL (East in particular) if we’re going to be using fielding statistics.
March 24th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
One of my thoughest days as a Yankee fan was the day I accepted the true that Jeter was not a good defensive SS. It took some weeks, many post on many sites and the cold true about statistics. Those may not be perfect, but neither is Jeter.
March 24th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
I know he won’t but the best option is A-Rod a better Defensive player and hitter and considering last year can hit in the clutch(Except for the postseason but he has to hit at some time in ten years from now)
This won’t happen but that is a good idea.
March 24th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
What ever happened to that Salcedo kid?
March 24th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
KO
This took a while to type, so you better read this lol
No, he didn’t do a comparison of the Yankees with Jeter in and out of the line-up. First, he took every pitcher that has ever pitched with Derek Jeter as his short stop, and figured out the % of batted balls (in play, not home runs) that landed for hits WITH Jeter on the field. Then he took the same group of pitchers and calculated the % of batted balls that landed for hits WITHOUT Jeter on the field. He found the difference in the two percentages, and prorated each number to 4000 plays. In that measure, Jeter came out to 38 plays below average, second worst in the majors since 1993.
Then, Tango applied the same method, but instead of using pitchers as the control group, he used opposing batters. So, for example, he found the % of hits on balls in play that Frank Thomas had WITH Jeter on the field compared to the % of hits on balls in play that Thomas had WITHOUT Jeter on the field. This method for Thomas was obviously applied to every batter who ever hit with Jeter on the field. Prorated to 4000 plays, Jeter was 25 plays below average, 4th worst in the majors since 1993.
The same method was then applied to individual base runners (how Jeter did vs. the average SS when Johnny Damon was on first, second, or third base, for example). In this measure, prorated to 1300 runners, Jeter came out to 11 plays below average, second worst in the majors since 1993.
The same method was then applied to stadiums…Tango looked at the % of hits on balls in play with short stops OTHER than Derek Jeter on the field (meaning other Yankee short stops like Eric Almonte, and opposing short stops like Nomar Garciaparra). He compared the two, and found Jeter to be 18 plays below average, 9th worst in the majors since 1993.
So he used four different ways to check for Jeter’s defensive competency, and all four came to the same conclusion. The data is available for free online if you know how to use it.
The article was prompted by Jeter saying to the NY Times, “They think they have a mathematical equation that figures everything out. Like every single person is out there with the same runner and the same pitcher and the ball is his in the same exact place…” So Tango looked at each one of these questions, and threw in the Stadium factor just for kicks. And the Hardball Times ‘08 (not Tango’s book) is well worth the cost.
March 24th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
And the same analysis was replicated for every qualified (in terms of playing time) short stop since 1993. Adam Everett was also either first or second best in every category, confirming the studies done by the Wharton professors as well as plenty of others.
March 25th, 2008 at 3:07 am
I see the world as flat, there for those crazy people claiming that the world is a round ball must be crazy!
March 25th, 2008 at 6:50 am
[…] Positional Depth: Shortstop - EJ Fagan - Pending Pinstripes […]
March 25th, 2008 at 7:30 am
DOESN’T JETER HAVE A GOLD GLOVE?? WHEN IN AN IMPORTANT GAME HAS JETER HURT THE TEAM? NEVER ! THIS IS SO RIDICULOUS. I RECALL IN A PLAYOFF SERIES VS BOSTON IN EITHER 99 OR 03 IT WASN’T JETER WHO MADE 4 GLARING ERRORS IN THE FIELD TO HURT HIS TEAM, IT WAS NOMAR.
March 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am
There was an article on espn the other day suggesting that I believe in 2010 the marlins would likely have to trade Hanley if they dont decide to give him a $200M deal before then…
March 25th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
The key to understanding how good Jeter is as a shortstop is to see him play every day,
The other key is to make sure you do NOT see any other shortstop play every day.
There have been way to many games where I would see plays Jeter couldn’t make or didn’t make, and then see the shortstop on the other team make them.
I’m NOT going to count last year against Jeter though, last year he had a knee injury and his range was reduced and it was a credit to him that he played out in the field as much as he did, in pain, when he needed more time off, or should have been DHing.
As for the gold glove, that award stopped meaning something when Palmero won it, and he wasn’t even playing the field anymore.
March 25th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Dan -
Thanks for saving me the $15. When I digest it, I’ll go poke some holes in it. That’s what I’m here for.
March 25th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Tony– Rafael Palmerio won a gold glove in 1999, a season in which e played 28 games at first base and 135 at DH.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmera01.shtml
Thanks KO, I hope you at least read that with an open mind, unlike so many others.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Minor change to the study that I kind-of paraphrased above…. the percentages were the percent of outs recorded by the short stop himself, not the total team. The rest of the method and results are the same, I just reported them incorrectly.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
This just for fun:
I was playing 2K 08 on my PS3 and Jeter made a play BEHIND the bag at second on a roller, and I went “Wow, it´s the first time I see something like that from Jeter in my life!”
March 25th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Great article, E.J. The one quibble would be with Corona. I’d put his ceiling at a 6 tops. All the reports I’ve seen on him point to a career utility guy, at best.
March 26th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Allow me please to weigh in on “the Jeter issue.”
It never ceases to amaze me that people continue to apply statistical analysis to an issue that is best judged by the collective wisdom of the baseball-trained eyes that view Jeter over the course of time. It is not a coincidence or a conspiracy or a fluke or a reflection of sloppy non-statistical thinking that Derek Jeter has won multiple gloves. Yes, there are isolated instances of undeserved gold gloves. But tell me pleas of a sub-par fieler who won two in a row.
Granted, Jeter may allow a few balls up the middle that others might track down.
But this is minor when weighed against at least three ways in whcih Jeter is superior to the vast majority of shortstops.
1– He is probably as good a relay man at the position as the game has seen in 50 years. (Ask Timo Perez, among many others, about that). Most importantly, he has allowed the Yankees to employ sub-par throwing outfielders (Williams, Damon) because of his ability to roam far, pivot swiftly and throw accurately. His relay arm is as much of an asset as the strong arm of an outfielder.
2- As many have noted, he is probably peerless at chasing pop-ups. Here too he compensates for the deficiencies of one of his teammates. A-Rod, for those who haven’t noticed, is frequently perplexed by pop-outs.
3- He plays well under pressure. The proof is in the rings and in his near-flawless post-season play.
Jeter was hurt last year, and this has emboldened the stat-geeks.
For the forseeable future, I’ll take him as my shortstop.
March 26th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
“2- As many have noted, he is probably peerless at chasing pop-ups. Here too he compensates for the deficiencies of one of his teammates.”
If he were compensating for his team mates, the study I detailed above would have shown that he’s above average(and read paragraph 3 to see how he performs with baserunners on). People have refuted prior studies on Jeter’s defense, sometimes with valid points. But I have yet to see any person anywhere refute Tango’s study, or any portion of it.
March 26th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Fog Cutter,
I would take Jeter any day of the week to be my shortstop.
I’ve watched him since he was a young rookie, and seen his ups and downs.
But you put a gun to my head and ask me if he is in the top half of shortstops by fielding alone, and I’d by lying if I said yes.
Sometimes his poor range has been hidden, other times exposed. When Wade Boggs was playing 3rd, it was NOT rare to see Jeter come up with balls over 2nd base or right up the middle. When Hayes played 3rd, it was more noticeable. With Brosius, it was in between.
His range (and for some odd reason, his arm) started going downhill after 2000 and 2001. The thing that showed me he wasn’t an elite fielding shortstop was yankee/mariner games, where I saw Jeter make the most athletic plays, going into the hole, jumping in mid air and throwing to first, its Jeter’s signature play. A-Rod, would just go in the hold, backhand and gun with no extra effort at all. One guy made it look like an ESPN highlight, the other made it look like it was a routine play.
Ask any yankee fan what plays symbolize Jeter, and its the jumping throw from in the hole.
Problem is, the good shortstops don’t have to jump and throw, they backhand, plant and throw.
Jeter makes hard plays look great, the great shortstops make the hard plays look easy.
The one thing Jeter is better at, then any shortstop in baseball, bar none, is going into the outfield and getting those balls, none better, at all. This is why some many guys in the yankee front office, wanted to move Jeter to left field when he was in the minor leagues.
March 26th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
new posts please?
March 27th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
EJ if Jetes is Ko’d for the season Alex Rodriguez would move to SS and Wilson Betemit/Morgan Ensberg switch to 3B, Angelini will jump Snyder and Corona on his talent alone.
April 12th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Hanley is the best shortstop in baseball. Lets get that before boston does!
Leave a comment