Good games, Bad games… the Bucks sure had their share

For the second night in a row, the maligned frontline of the Milwaukee Bucks dominated its opponent and made the difference in a Bucks victory.

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Click Here to get the statistical skinny on Bucks 102, Knicks 87

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As you can see from the GS Boxscore, the win probability added by the Bucks frontcourt foursome of Ersan Ilyasova (+24.8%), Andrew Bogut (+18.1%), Carlos Delfino (+8.7%), and Hakim Warrick (+7.0%), along with backcourt upstart Jodie Meeks (+ 12.1%), more  than made up for the win probability lossed by other members of the backcourt: Brandon Jennings (-14.1%), Charlie Bell (-10.8%), Luke Ridnour (-3.9%), and Roko Ukic (-3.1%… in only 3.5 minutes of action!!).

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Granted, the frontline was aided by the fact that the Knicks play power forwards (Hill, Lee) at center, and small forward types (Harrington, Chandler) at power forward.  But when teams do that, you have to punish them, and that’s what the Bucks did.

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Game Ball One: PF/C Ersan Ilyasova… Ersan not only had the best game of his second Bucks career, he had the best game of any Bucks player so far this season.  He dominated the boards, like he suggested he could do with his European performance last year, and he played outstanding defense.  If he plays this well from here on, the Bucks will be very tough to beat.

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Game Ball Two: SG Jodie Meeks… Meeks found the range on his 3 ball, and, as I anticipated, when his jumper is on the mark, he can make a Win Contribution through his scoring.  He put up 11.0 Win Score points, mainly because he knocked down 5 out of 7 three point shots.  His defense at the two guard was a bit below average, but the Knicks presented the Bucks backcourt with problematic matchups all night (the Knicks apparently like to go small up front and big in the backcourt).  The Bucks can certainly use his shooting touch.

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Game Ball Three: C Andrew Bogut… Two nights in a row Andrew Bogut dominated the post against a quality pivot man.  First, he outplayed Al Jefferson in Minnesota, next he outplayed David Lee in Milwaukee.  It seems as though matchups against the “natural PF” centers of the NBA are Bogut’s favorite.  He can outproduce them, but he seems to struggle against traditional centers, as exemplified by his performance against Philadelphia’s Samuel Dalembert on Opening Night.  Luckily, there aren’t that many good traditional centers around any more, so most nights  the matchup will favor Bogut.

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Weirdest Good Game: Luc Moute… My theory is you can stink as bad as you want on offense and still contribute toward a win so long as your defense compels your counterpart opponent to stink even worse than you did.  Luc Moute proved the point on Saturday night, though I’d rather he didn’t.  I’d rather he found some sort of reliable scoring option AND completely dominated his cover on defense, but, any way to get a win is good enough for now. For the future though, he can’t be going 1 for 6 (he seems to have a problem getting his shots blocked a lot, too).  But for last night, his defense and effort were superb and enabled him to make a positive contribution to the Bucks victory.

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Dishonorable Mention: SG Charlie Bell and PG Brandon Jennings… The New York Knicks posted only 27.5 Win Score efficiency points on Saturday night, but fully 16 of them were produced by players being guarded by only two Milwaukee Bucks: Charlie Bell and Brandon Jennings.  Unless the game goes into overtime and each plays every minute, 16 WS points surrendered by a backcourt combo is never exceptable defense.  And when you combine that  spotty defense with the pair’s non-efficient production on the offensive end (Bell was 2-for-5 with 2 turnovers; Jennings was 7-for-16 with 5 turnovers), those two by themselves made a loss to the Knicks 25% more likely.  Luckily their teammates were there to more than pick them up, but still.  Jennings in particular is starting to concern me a bit.  He’s reverting to his European ways a bit, using too many shots when he’s missing, not getting enough assists, and not using his  quickness enough to force penetration.  That’s gonna be a problem.  The Knicks went big against him with success, and the NBA develops books on how to play rookies, and unless Jennings gets it in his mind that he’s going to use his quickness to make bigger guards pay, “Go Big” is going to be Chapter One of the book on him.  He can counter that strategy with his strengths, but if he continues to settle for perimeter jumpers, that won’t get it done.  Larry Hughes, a natural wing player, should never be able to play point with Jennings on the floor.  Jennings should exploit him by going to the rack all night.  It didn’t happen last night.

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