MVN - Most Valuable Network

Still Bourn

I received the following email today from a man named Kevin Hayward: 

Here’s a riddle for the Houston Astros to chew on: how valuable is an incredible base runner that rarely reaches base?When the Astros acquired Michael Bourn they envisioned a spark plug at the top of the order, a speedy center fielder who could get on and steal bases. So far Bourn has fulfilled only the less important of the two expectations: he leads the Majors in stolen bases with 17, but that’s only because he steals just about every time he reaches base. In 34 games, Bourn is hitting .198 with an OBP of .269. Houston is playing some great baseball at this stage of the season, so it’s easy enough to overlook Bourn’s struggles. But at some point, a “slow start” or an “early-season slump” are no longer fair descriptors for plain ineptitude.If the Astros plan to make a run at the NL Central, they need to end the Bourn Experiment sooner rather than later. Let Hunter Pence play center and bat leadoff, and use Bourn in the role best suited for his talents: pinch runner.

OK

Let me see if I get this straight - after 145 PA as a major league regular, Kevin thinks the Astros should completely give up on this 25 year old guy and relegate him to the Cheito Cruz rubbish heap. Yes, I know his numbers aren’t even up to his numbers last year as a PH/DR - at this point he’s 26/131 with 13 BB, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 16 RS, 17 SB, no CS for a .198/.269/.298/.567 line and yes, I know it isn’t even up to Adam Everett’s line that everyone was screaming about last year, seeing as how Adam Everett was responsible for the Astros not winning last year. And, by the way, Bourn plays defense at an Adam Everett elite level even though I know that a whole lot of people really REALLY think that saving runs has exactly zero value to a ball club, that only BA/OBP matters.

Even though Bourn is technically not a rookie, having spent the entirety of last year on a ML roster, he IS a rookie as a full time position player and he is still learning;  he’s not a washed up vet like Cruz and yet, Kevin thinks it is more than reasonable to permanently determine that a total of 145 PA in the major leagues is sufficient to eliminate him as a major leaguer.

He GOTTA be kidding.

Let me get this straight - any rookie hitting like Berkman after 145 PA really IS the next Pujols? (Might could I remind Kevin of the April whiz kid, Chris Shelton)? Good thing the Red Sox last year felt that 145 PA was more than enough to evaluate, then DFA that April washout, Dustin Pedroia?

On what planet is 145 PA is more than enough to judge a ballplayer learning to adjust to ML pitching AND hitting leadoff? We aren’t talking about this new player becoming a superduper star, we are talking about him becoming a ML regular. We aren’t talking about having him bat second, or even 8th or 9th. We are talking about deciding right here and now that this kid is now and forever, a failure, and should not figure in the plans of the team, except as a PR/DR, seeing as how he sure won’t be even pinch hitting much.

I understand why the team removed Chris Burke last year, after approximately the same number of PA, and, by the way, hitting MUCH better, and we all know that “good guy” Biggio wasn’t about to let Burke near second, home or away, after getting his 70 hits; actually, they should have just traded Burkie-poo after they decided to go with Pence, but I digress… Anyway, they removed Burke because they had a CF in waiting at AAA who they believed could hit ML pitching better than the man they were replacing and who, if he succeeded, would be a regular OF for years to come. And Burkie-poo, by the way, was removed when he was hitting .238/.344/.388/.732 - and he was hitting in the 6-hole, not even his natural spot, which was leadoff (my “good guy” and his .240 OBP was cemented there. But I digress…) and that was, essentially, the end of his Astros career.

Anyway, I think the team had a very reasonable plan - discard one player for a MUCH better one, AND one who will most likely be a better CF for the next 6 years.

But with Bourn, who is going to take his place? Kevin wants Pence to leadoff. Why? He doesn’t walk much, won’t have that magical .350 OBP unless he gets his batting average up over .310 and it wastes his power. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t take many pitches. Why wouldn’t you put Kaz Matsui, who has essentially a .330 OBP and is a singles hitter and base stealer at leadoff? Matsui takes more pitches than Pence, too.

And then the Astros should replace Bourn with exactly who? And remember we are talking about essentially removing him from the Astros future plans because he sure as heck is not gonna learn to hit ML pitching sitting on his dead butt on the bench all year long. Who is this new Pence?

Let me guess - Mr. Singles Hitter, 34 year old Darin Erstad, Mr. If he ain’t hurt, he’s gettin ready to get hurt, a guy who is now on the downside of his career - should play right and Pence play center. Because let’s face it - Erstad is not going to be even as good as Pence in that enormous CF at home - he can’t run as fast as he used to and his range ain’t what it used to be - and he isn’t even up to Pence any longer and Pence was basically just a little above league average.

Let’s take a look at Erstad’s last 5 years performance (let me guess - years and years of stats mean zero compared to this year’s 55 PA, right? I mean, you don’t need no stinkin 145 PA for THIS guy because he happened to start off strongly, right?)

2003: 284 PA - .252/.309/.333/.642 - 9 SB, 1 CS
2004: 543 PA - .295/.346/.400/.746 - 16 SB, 1 CS
2005: 667 PA - .273/.325/.371/.696 - 10 SB, 3 CS
2006: 105 PA - .221/.279/.326/.605 - 1 SB, 1 CS
2007: 347 PA - .248/.310/.335/.645 - 7 SB, 1 CS

Average OPS over those 5 years is .689. Whoopie doo. Definitely worth throwing a good young player out the window after his first 145 PA. AND he won’t be near the distraction on the bases that Bourn is, neither.

Or maybe Kevin thinks we have all these Hunter Pences in the minors, just ready and waiting. Let’s see:

At AAA:

- Yordany Ramirez, age 23, RH: .186/.198/.271/.470 over 118 AB  (might could he be a tad overmatched by AAA pitching? Makes you wonder why the team released Victor Diaz and his .395 OBP/.350 SLG)
- Reggie Abercrombie, age 27, RH, AKA “The Windmill” - 45 K in 129 AB - .271/.293/.465/.768 - 3 E, 4 BB, 9 SB, 5 CS in 134 PA; and, in case you are wondering, here are his ML numbers over 331 AB: .208/.263/.329/.592 which, by the way, are not even up to Brad Ausmus/Adam Everett…
- Nick Gorneault, age 29, RH: .218/.307/.376/.683 in 101 AB: 1 E, 4 SB, 1 CS

Josh Anderson looks like Matt Holliday next to these guys.

At AA:

Mitch Einertson, age 22, RH: .229/.271/.420/.691 - 2 E, no SB/CS in 131 AB
Josh Flores, age 23, RH (on DL)
Billy Hart, age 25, RH: .288/.380/.442/.822 - 0 E, 6 SB, 4 CS in 104 AB
Eli Iorg, age 25, RH: 264/.314/.448/.762 - 2 E, 5 SB, 3 CS in 125 AB
Ray Sadler, age 27, RH: .316/.391/.568/.958 - 1 E, 2 SB, 1 CS in 95 AB

Do any of all yall see any Hunter Pences, because I sure don’t. And I don’t know if any of these guys can play center OR right - and I SERIOUSLY doubt that this Organization is going to promote a guy who is almost 28 from AA to the bigs, don’t you? Hart was long ago designated as a minor leaguer lifer - he might could be the next Chris Coste, but with Ed Wade’s prize at stake, I wouldn’t hold my breath and I seriously doubt Billy is holding his either. I didn’t bother going down to search A ball - those guys really only get called up straight to the majors in “Bull Durham” so that Annie doesn’t have to tell the poor guy she’s in love with someone else so he gets all depressed and develops Steve Blass Syndrome and is OOB after the year and has to work selling insurance and Annie and Crash feel so guilty that they never get together and Crash goes on to work at the gas station and Annie leaves the Church of Baseball and joins a convent. That’s what you call a bad ending that the audience doesn’t like any bettern Crash, Annie and Nuke do - and this is why we aren’t going down to look in A ball.

Where was I?

Oh yeah. I sure as heck don’t see any Hunter Pences that other teams are ready to trade away and frankly, if you are worried about Michael Bourn’s bat being such a detriment to this team, I sure can’t see trading away any quality bat we have in the minors (and, by the way, I sure don’t see one) and we don’t HAVE any more quality pitchers to trade.

I certainly hope that Kevin doesn’t mean signing the overcooked Jim Edmonds who can’t hit anything faster than Roy’s slow curve and has lost more than a few steps in center. For goodness sakes, the Padres, who are STARVED for hitters let him go.

And last but not least, WHY replace Bourn at all? This team is winning like crazy even WITH his .297 OBP and after all, a win is a win and it is not as if we just needed one more big bat and Pence is clearly blocking him. We have no NEED to replace an ace glove, ace baserunner/basestealer and his weak bat for the average glove and the mediocre bat of a vet on his last legs because right NOW, it surely isn’t needed to help the team win and it CERTAINLY won’t help the team win in the future, neither.

Brad Ausmus Hits #1500

This is Brad’s 17th season as a ML catcher. And, except for this year and his rookie year, he has been the main catcher. Darn few catchers play 15 years as the main catcher, and Brad has now caught 1847 games.

I know quite well that Brad is no Piazza with the bat. But in spite of his career OPS of .671 (75 OPS+) and pitchers, whether HOF or middle relief scrubs, love pitching to him.

And I sincerely hope that after his career ends this season, he will take up modeling, as Jim Palmer did. Boxer-briefs, please…

Roy Oswalt Beats The Giants In San Francisco

Roy Oswalt was nails. He looked like the old Roy - he had the FB snapping and the slider sliding and the change changing up and the slow curve working fine.

He ended up giving up 3 runs - a bunt single (should have been E5, as Wiggy bobbled the ball), a sac-bunt, a double down the LF line, then a double to center that Cruz missed that Bourn would have gotten (remember, SAVING runs has value, you know…) He also gave up a pop-fly homer down the RF line that would have been out in the Box. But after that, 15 batters didn’t reach base and he struck out 6 of em and didn’t walk anyone. In fact, he looked better every inning, and if he hadn’t needed so many pitches in the first 2 innings, he could have finished the game.

But is looks as if Roy is finally ROY. I hope. I hope.

And, by the way, Barry Zito actually pitched pretty well. 6 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 ER. He did give up a 420′ homer to Lance, but hey, getting that boy out these days is a tough job. But, you know, you show Lance what you got a few too many times and he gonna make you pay.

And the Astros won with weak hitters Cruz - who managed to get his BA over MY weight with 2 hits today - and Ausmus, and Wiggy in the lineup. And The Giants manager made a pitching change to pitch to Brad Ausmus!!! Reminds me of the other day when they made a pitching change to pitch to the pitcher. And I mean, we don’t exactly have a Micah Owings on our staff.

And we scored 2 runs in the 8th when, with bases loaded, the new pitcher, not even standing on the rubber, decided to throw somewhere in the vicinity of first, startling the heck out of the 1B, then the second baseman pitcked up the ball near the visitors dugout and threw it way away from the catcher and before you knew it, 2 runs scored and Cruz was on third.

Coop seems to be calling for the hit and run every time there is a man on first, 0 or 1 out and the count is 3-1. It was successful 2 of 3 times today, but if he is gonna do that as a routine, the opposing managers are gonna call pitchouts and pick off the runner.

Well, I think I just might could start to think about starting to BEE-LEEEVE. I mean, sweeping at LA??? Roy winning at Phone Park? Goodness gracious.

And tonight it is Backe vs Cain

Backe is 1-0 in 3 GS (with his CG SO that was the ESPN Wed night game) in 13 IP with a 2.03 ERA.

Cain is a darn good RHP whose W/L record is really bad because the poor guy gets terrible run support. His career line, over 78 GS and 483 IP: 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a .223 BAA.

His numbers aren’t near as good this year: 1-3 in 8 GS over 43 IP - 4.50 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a .246 BAA

He’s started 1 game against the Astros and relieved in 1, giving up 3 ER over 7 IP. But most of the players are new to him, so we’ll just have to see.

Lance Berkman Is NL Player Of The Week Again

We all know he’s great and he’s having a run for the ages. But now that he’s been named NL player of the week for the second time in 3 weeks, I guess that BBTN is probably going to have to mention his name again. Kevin youkilis of the Red Sox was named AL POTW, so I guess that means 4 minutes, 55 seconds for the important guy and 10 seconds for ol whatshisname.

From Justice’s latest column on Lance:

“He’s batting .382 after Sunday’s 8-5 Astros win at Dodger Stadium. That’s up 83 points in the last 16 games. He has hit .492 the past two-plus weeks (29 for 59) with a .557 OBP. He has reached base in 25 of his last 33 plate appearances.

Wait, it gets better. According to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR):

• He’s the fourth player in 51 years to have 16 hits in a stretch of 20 at-bats.

• He’s the second player in 50 years to have a 19-for-25 stretch. Albert Pujols did it in 2003.

• Prior to his 1-for-4 on Sunday, he hadn’t made more than one out in any of his previous six games — all of which included at least four plate appearances. Going back to 1957, only three players have had a similar on-base stretch while making so few outs.”

I really wish that writers would stop talking about how the player is as a person, seing as how they don’t actually KNOW the guy. I sure wish that it really is true that Lance is actually a good person, not just a good baseball player, but I’d rather that the media didn’t build all these sand castles. Just praise the guy for his baseball skills and his interaction with teammates, fans, media. Then leave it be. It’s Tejadar than you would think to try to explain to your kids why you cheer the jersey but boo the person…