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9 Responses to “Marvin Miller, The Union And Foolish Attitudes”

1. Joel B. says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 11:17 am

   Since when did girls get intelligence?

2. lisa gray says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 11:59 am

   joel,

   - grinning

   don’t let your mama/gf read that…

3. Steve Schramm says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 12:06 pm

   Well written article, Lisa. Nicely done.

   Is the holiday spirit of looking at the glass half full (or at least 10% full), here’s an article from Scott Barzilla over at Astros Daily. He makes the case that even a mediocre Matsui is a rather significant upgrade over what we had last year. Maybe things won’t be quite as bad as we fear…

   Bonzai!

   added 12/16 by Scott Barzilla

   The first two positions were easy, but now we get to the fun part. Signing Kaz Matsui was Wade’s second major move. In many ways, it could be his greatest risk. Immediately, folks all around the sabermetrical community busted a gut laughing at the move. I certainly respect those folks, but will utilize their own numbers to demonstrate why they are flat our wrong this time.

   To begin we need to look at those Matsui is replacing. Some believed that Chris Burke should have gotten the job. Others believe Mark Loretta should have been given the job. Others liked the idea of going for Tadahito Iguchi of the Phillies. These suggestions all have their merits. Burke would have been a cheap option and Loretta ended up coming back anyway. As it turned out, Iguchi signed for less than Matsui. Obviously, Wade has a lot to account for.

   OBP AB TB BR ATB ASLG AOPS
   Craig Biggio .285 517 197 +2 199 .385 .670
   Chris Burke .304 319 114 +7 121 .379 .683
   Mark Loretta .352 460 171 -14 157 .341 .693

   There were nine second basemen (if you count Burke) that had adjusted OPSs under .700. The Astros had a third of them. That’s a ton of ineffective plate appearances concentrated on one team. With each player there was a different tale of woe. Loretta was the worst baserunner among second baseman in the National League. Jeff Kent was the next worst at -4. Biggio’s OBP was only better than the Cardinals Adam Kennedy. Meanwhile, Burke offered all around ineptitude.

   Still, how much of an improvement could we expect from Matsui. This is where the debate insues. There are two camps and the Astros are clearly in the optimistic camp. The optimists claim that Matsui found himself in Colorado and was obviously lost in New York. This is possible, but the realists look at his road stats while with the Rockies and see the same player as the New York Matsui. Lets take a look at both options

   OBP AB TB BR ASLG AOPS
   Optimistic .342 410 166 +44 .512 .854
   Realistic .315 410 151 +41 .468 .783

   The realistic numbers simply took the numbers he generated in New York and converted them into MMP numbers. Even with the adjustment of his baserunning advantage, Matsui still would have been the best baserunner among second baseman. Yes, the raw OPS numbers wouldn’t look that good, but he is still a considerably better offensive player than what we had last season. Naturally, this isn’t the only advantage Matsui brings to the table.

   The fielding Bible voters (including eleven sabermetric lumanaries) rated Matsui the 11th best fielding second baseman. John Dewan (owner of the +/- system we are using) had him as the sixth best second baseman (+12). Theoretically, we could add those bases into the adjusted OPS. Craig Biggio was tied for the second worst rated (-17) last season.

   So, while Matsui might not produce the most electric hitting numbers, he should be a signficant defensive upgrade over Biggio and there isn’t a better baserunner out there at the position. Bill James rated the Astros as the worst baserunning team in baseball last season. Getting better baserunners seems to be a good idea. Having someone that can cover a little extra ground to help Tejada is a really good idea.

4. Austin says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 1:16 pm

   I fully admit that Matsui is a huge defensive upgrade over Biggio, Loretta or Burke. Although I also think, with the large defensive drop up the middle with the signing of Tejada, it makes that kind of a wash. I’m concerned about them giving a long-term contract to a guy who’s never started more than 111 games in a season. I’m concerned about them putting a guy who was a career .256 hitter until he got to Coors into the top of the lineup.

   People keep saying this lineup looks a heck of a lot better than last year, and I totally agree about the 3-7 spots. However, we have basically locked two guys into the top two spots (with Bourn and Matsui) who very easily could post horrific OPS. I think we’re putting a lot of trust in a couple of players that I don’t have a lot of reason to trust.

   I’m also concerned about his baserunning, because it seems his great baserunning in Colorado was a result of the system. Garner hated sending runners, and didn’t try very hard to steal bases unless it was Willy Taveras. And I’ve seen nothing to make me think Cooper is any different. Before Matsui got to Colorado, he stole just 22 bases in 239 games over 2.5 seasons. Then, in Colorado, he stole 40 bases in just 136 games. That looks pretty good, but I wonder if he’ll be as effective in Houston, especially with the expected drop in OBP.

5. lisa gray says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 1:39 pm

   well, i ALSO looked at matsui’s numbers BEFORE he went to the rockies. remember? i was NOT exactly impressed.

   and my dogsss are a defensive upgrade over biggio

   personally i think it is a mistake to bat matsui second instead of 7th or 8th and let pence hit second.

6. Steve Schramm says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 3:09 pm

   Lisa, the problem with batting him 7th is he’d be blocked on the bases by the ponderous, sloth-like, glacial footwork of Ty and Carlos. Matsui won’t cross the plate until 2009.

   Austin,
   I’m not blind to the mess Tejada will make, but Loretta was just as bad if not worse. While it’s great to imagine Everett there, we don’t know the effect of that horrific leg break — but it was clearly more than just your standard break-and-heal because he was out all year instead of just 6 weeks. Anyway, Tejada at short is no worse than the others who played there last year if we presume that his attitude improves back to normal instead of sulky.

   Overall, Matsui+Tejada is a notable defensive upgrade over Biggio+Loretta. It’s also a dramatic offensive upgrade. And it’s a significant baserunning upgrade.

   So while there is a lot to worry about, I prefer to just wait and see how Matsui plays at sea level and how Tejada plays on his new team. You have to admit that Tejada is motivated, because if he goes out and hits .300 with 30 HRs, he’s going to demonstrate that his performance wasn’t all based on juice. I’m really curious to see what it’s like to see all these guys off steroids. That means hitters AND pitchers.

7. lisa gray says:
   

   December 18th, 2007 at 3:13 pm

   well,

   i’m not convinced that tejada is off the juice. he can shoot up all winter.

   but we’ll see and we sure nuff will find out if adam’s leg did or didn’t heal.

   and you right about lee/wiggy on the bases. shudder. poor towles.

8. Steve says:
   

   December 19th, 2007 at 7:34 am

   Great artice Lisa
   revenge is best “served” cold.To see the effects of revenge of the owners and hall of fame committee, see what they have done Pete Rose. If anyone should be there, he should. If the juicers make it in, why not someone who happened to gamble on other teams. On games he had no control over. the juicemen affected every game they played in. what if Charlie Hustle had been on the juice? He would still be running today!
   How long to they have to be off the sauce in order to pass a drug test? Seems like they would be REALLY foolish to try it now. Of course it is a really foolish thing to do to ones body for short term results. I wonder if any of these guys have seen what Lyle Alzedo looked like when he died? Not worth it, cause as one who knows, if you don’t have your health, nothing else matters much.

9. Lisa Gray says:
   

   December 19th, 2007 at 7:56 am

   steve,

   i’m one of the few who thinks that rose should be in the hall and permananetly banned from MLB. but the Hall is a private company - they can change the rules if they want to - and the owners/mlb have nothing to say about it. for once.

   the reason why gamblers have been and should be treated differently and much more severely than drug users is that gamblers who play/manage the game affect the outcome directly and deliberately and you can’t have that.

   lyle alzado died of brain cancer that was NOT related to roids/HGH.

   as for how long you have to be off the roid to pass - well, it depends on the roid and how sophisticated the test is. some stuff stays for a few weeks, some a few days and some months and months. problem is that there really is not surprise testing and there is not completely supervised, uh, collection (use of whizzinator happens, so i hear tell.)

   as for having health - well, like jim bouton said - some guys would agree to take 10 years offn their life to add 5 MPH to their FB…

   and at this particular time, we really haven’t seen any long term health effects from baseball players who roided. and i don’t count caminiti because he dies of cocaine, not roids.

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