MVN - Most Valuable Network

Astros Prospects 2008 - youneverknow

Well, my friends, it’s pretty unanimous - Baseball America, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus (and I would bet John Sickels) all think that the Astros farm system is the worst in the majors. Well, B-Pro has us at #29, close enough… Actually, I should say that they believe we have the fewest prospects in the majors and yes, there IS a difference.

First, check B-Pro’s top 100 prospects list and you’ll see that the only Astros player is J.R. Towles at #54 

Then, check Keith Law’s list (ESPN) and scouting reports:

J.R. Towles at #61 - “Towles has had little trouble hitting for average throughout his pro career, but it will be interesting to see what he does when consistently facing big league pitching. Towles sets up with a big, deep load and almost locks his lead elbow; as a result, his plate coverage isn’t great and he struggles to reach the ball down, getting very long with an exaggerated finish just to reach balls in the lower third of the zone. He’s a dead-pull hitter, which is a good thing for a right-handed bat in Houston’s ballpark, but he’ll have to show he can adjust to the ball away as well as down. His arm is fringe-average and he’s an adequate plate blocker, but isn’t plus in any aspect of his defense. Given his performance history, he should be at least an everyday catcher in the majors, but he’s not a star and may settle in as a barely average regular.”

Felipe Paulino #65 - “A converted infielder, Paulino has reportedly hit triple digits in the past, and he’d probably do so again as a reliever, which is his ultimate role. Working as a starter, Paulino has a 93-94 mph four-seamer that’s true but has some late life, allowing him to miss some bats in the upper half of the zone. His potential out pitch is a hard 12-to-6 curve from 76 to 81 mph, with a sharp, late, downward break. It’s not a consistent pitch for him, and when he relies on his four-seamer too heavily, hitters can sit on it, making him homer-prone. In relief, however, Paulino should see a tick up in velocity and be able to work more effectively without a third pitch.”

The definitions for “prospect” is quite strict - the player must be under 25 and he must also be under a certain age limit for each level in the minors - not sure exactly what the cutoffs are, because I can’t find the exact guidelines. But I do know, for example, that Chris Sampson was never considered a prospect in spite of his exellence or his quick rise through the minors because he began his ML career at age 25. I also don’t know what criteria Sickels, Goldstein, Law and others use to select the people they do and I also don’t know if they actually watch - I mean, physically look at the players playing the game - not on tv or in videos, but on the playing fields. Numbers are nice, but I am a firm believer in eyeballs too.

Unfortunately for me, I have not seen any minor league ball, so except for the minor leaguers who I have seen play in the majors, I can’t give any scouting report. In fact, I hope that any reader who has seen any of these guys play will comment about him. So let’s take a look at the minor leagues as they stand now, ignoring all the AAAA and ML reject type players they hired to play AAA ball.

AAA pitchers:

- Paul Estrada, RHP, age 25 -6th year in the minors, did well in 06 in AA with a K rate of 13.45/9 IP and a 1.11 WHIP, but he had a tough time in AAA last year, with a walk rate of 5.4/9 and a WHIP of 1.62 losing 8 games and saving 8 in 53 games. He’s always had both a high walk and K rate and seems as if he needs to work on the strike zone. Finding it, that is.
- Chance Douglass, RHP, age 24, 6th year in the minors, is a starter who split 2006 between AA and AAA. He had, uh, a tough time at AAA (tons of walks, losses, very few Ks), but he has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in his minor league career. Not at ST this year…
- Brian Gordon, RHP, age 29 - a converted failed OF - started pitching last year, threw 11 innings in relief and did very well. Um, needs a little more work, you know what I’m sayin…
- Jared Gothreaux, RHP, age 28 - just a few years ago, I thought he was gonna make it, but he’s been injured a lot and has spent the last 3 years at AAA, where he has a 4.52 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP - his HR rate is a little generous at 1.2/9 IP, his walks are nice and low at 2.32/9 IP but his K/9 is a bit low at 5.07. He worked as both a starter and reliever last year, but if there are a lot of hurt/innefective guys on the ML staff, well, youneverknow, especially if he is throwing well. He is, however, too “old” to be called a prospect.
- Giuseppe Norrito, RHP, age 25 - in 4 years, has pitched only 184 innings, most of them at AA last year in the Dodgers Organization. He had an ERA of 4.93 with a 1.46 WHIP, a HR rate of 1.22/9 IP, a walk rate of 2/9 IP but a K rate of 4.3/9 IP. Needs, um, a little more work…
- Jose Rodriguez, age 26 - originally signed by the Braves, who let him go and they almost never let any good pitchers go. And surprise, surprise, Jose isn’t very good…

AAA position players (6 of em, none under 27 and none have an OPS over .730 - even the hadest core fan GOTTA admit that is just one SAD team - until they are filled with AAAA lifers.)

AA pitchers:

- Brian Bogusevic, LHP, age 24 - he was our #1 pick a few years back, so unfortunately, he’s being pimped heavily, but he has absolutely AWFUL stats. He was promoted from High A last year after throwing 114 innings of 4.01 ERA/1.50 WHIP ball. You best believe that if he was a 20th rounder he wouldn’t have been promoted. I haven’t the faintest idea why on earth he’s on some prospect lists…
- Tip Fairchild, RHP, age 24 - 12th round of 05 - threw 7 innings (bad ones) at AA last year, guess he got hurt, but his outings in A ball were fine: 3.31 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

* Brad James - age 23 - drafted in the 29th round of the 04 draft: has been invited to ST this year, and the Organization thinks very highly of him, so I would have to call him a prospect, even if the Experts don’t agree. He’s a GB pitche with a low K rate who threw 47 lousy innings at AA after being promoted from A-ball with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Needless to say, he still needs some minor league innings.
- Tim Lavigne, RHP, age 30 - released from the Yankees, threw 9 innings at AA. NOT a prospect, trust me on this
- Ryan McKeller, RHP, age 25 - 45th round of the 02 draft - failed as a starter in A ball, converted to reliever in 06, did well, pitched 9 innings in 07 - either hurt or released…
- German Melendez, RHP, age 27 - signed as non-drafted FA out of Venezuela in 1998 - a reliever who pitched 79 innigs at AA last year with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Not a prospect.
- Kyle Middleton, RHP, age 28 - drafted by Royals, signed as 6 year FA by Houston last year, spent the year in AA as a closer: 3.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 51 IP, 41 GF, 23 saves. NOT a prospect.
- Josh Muecke, LHP, age 26 - selected int he 5th round of the 03 draft. Repeated AA last year, is a starter, 3.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9, 3 BB/9, 5 K/9; Was invited to ST to try out for the LOOGY position. However, his splits aren’t particularly remarkable against leftys, except for a significantly lower walk rate. Not a prospect.
- Ryan Thompson, RHP, age 25 - signed as an undrafted FA by Houston in 2004. He’s a reliever, threw 54 innings at AA last year with a 3.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.15 HR/9, 1.49 BB/9, 8.78 K/9. He looks like the best of the lot, a HECK of a lot more promising than Bogusevic, that is fer SHER… But still not a prospect.

AA hitters:

- James Goethals, age 26, C - drafted by the Astros in 05, split last year between A ball and AA, has had 197 ML AB and his highest batting average was .200. NOT a prospect, surprised he even got 17 AB in AA.
- Jeffrey Mackor, age 28, C - drafted 15th round 2002, had a .640 OPS at AA last year,  an imporvement on his minor league total 611 OPS. Not a prospect. Not sure why he’s even in AA
- Lou Santangelo, age 25, C - drafted 4th round 2004. Towles owes him big time because it was his absence from the lineup due to a drug suspension that allowed Towles to show AA what he could do… Anyway, Lou ended up with 206 AB and a 696 OPS. His minor league OPS is 760 - he needs more AB - he tends to be a high strikeout guy and his SLG is 445.
- Jonathan Ash, age 25, 2B - drafted 11th round 04. He’s a high average (.300) high OBP (.380) low SLG kind of guy who doesn’t steal bases but has a good glove. He looks decent to me - heck, better than Matsui, and it will be interesting to see if he is finally promoted to AAA this year. The Organization doesn’t seem to regard him as anything except minor league filler, however.
- Michael Johnson, age 28, 1B - picked him up last year when the Padres Organization released him, put him in AA and he hit well with a 989 OPS. He’s only had a few AB over AA, but has a ML OPS of 854. NOT a prospect.
- Tommy Manzella, age 25, SS - drafted in the 3rd round of the 05 draft. This is the second year in a row he’s been invited to ST. He fields like Adam Everett - had a career year at AA last year with a .289 average and a .725 OPS - not s LOT of Ks, not a lot of walks, no power. A prototypical NL shortstop - he should be a prospect, but he isn’t.
- Edwin Maysonet, age 26, SS -  a weaker version of Manzella
- Todd Self, age 29, 1B - high average, no power, looks like Stan the Man.
- Drew Sutton, age 25, 3B drafted in the 15th round of the 04 draft. A second baseman, just finished AA with a .769 OPS. He was moved to 3rd, probably because of Jonny Ash, but he doesn’t hit for power - just 28 doubles and 5 homes in 480 AB. Has a minor league OPS of .780 over 4 seasons. Doubt he’s any sort of prospect, unless he starts to hit for power and average.
- Jarred Ball, age 25, OF - came up through the Arizona Organization, signed as a 6 year minor league FA - an OF with a .730 OPS. NOT a prospect.
- Francisco Caraballo, age 24, OF -signed as an undrafted FA out of Venezuela in 01 - had a .742 OPS last year at AA in 390 AB. And his minor league totals are unremarkable.
*Josh Flores, age 22, OF - drafted in the 4th round of the 05 draft and is a real actual prospect!!!! OMG!!! Tore up the Carolina league and was promoted to AA, but had a .602 OPS in 192 AB, so he needs, um, a little more experience.
- Ray Sadler, age 27, OF - signed as a minor league FA to AA last year and had an unremarkable .788 OPS.
- Beau Torbert, age 25, OF - drafted in the 17th round of the 04 draft. Was a CArolina League All-Star in 06 and even got a ST appearance last year - one plate appearance, he got a hit (HOW did I miss that) but has a lifetime minor league .730 OPS. Not, uh, good.

Hi-A pitchers: anyone over 24 in high A is not a prospect. unless of course, he’s a #1 draft pick…

- Christopher Blazek, age 24, LHP -drafted in the 23rd round in 05, finished high A with a 4.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP as a reliever - 8.2 K/9, 3.80 BB/9. Blech.
- Raymar Diaz, age 24, RHP - 47th round of the 02 draft - just finished high A - in 5 seasons as starter and (mostly) reliever - 3.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.55 BB/9, 7.33 K/9.
- Evan Englebrook, age 26, RHP - filler
- Casey Hudspeth, age 23, RHP - 5th round of the 06 draft - first full season last year, split  between A and high A - finished 41 innings at high A with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP - 2.3 BB/9, 5.4 K/9 - hmmmmmmmm, might could be interesting
- Bud Norris, age 23, RHP - 6th round of 06 draft - first full season last year - 4.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in A ball as a starter - 3.82 BB and 10.89 K/9 IP - the Organization likes this guy - probably because of all the Ks.
- Sergio Perez, age 23, RHP - drafted in the second round of 06 draft - the Organization likes him too, in spite of the fact that he hasn’t pitched well - 4.0 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with  3 BB/9 and 5.89 K/9 IP. We’ll see.
- Christopher Salamida, age 24, LHP - drafted 13th round of 06 draft - starter, 5.85 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, 7 K/9, 10.7 H/9 IP.
- Rory Shortell, age 27, RHP - 3rd round of 02 draft, finished 3rd year at high A, not going anywheres
- Enyelbert Soto, age 25, LHP - filler
- Matt Sweeney, age 25, RHP - filler
- Polin Trinidad, age 23, LHP - starter, spent most of last year in A ball - good numbers - 4.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9 - threw 4 games, 25 IP, at high A, did better. will see how he does this year. He might could be good.
- Jeff Wigdahl, age 26, LHP -filler

Hi-A hitters:

- Jose Lopez, age 23, C - signed as a non-drafted FA from Venezuela in 02 - just finished high A - OPS was .604.
- Justin Tellam, age 23, C - signed in the 14th round of the 06 draft - just finished high A - .272 BA, .368 OBP, .357 SLG
- Billy Hart, age 25, 3B - finished second year in high A with an 836 OPS - let’s see how he does in AA, as he’s kind of old for his level
- Chris Johnson, age 23, 3B - 4th round of the 06 draft - first full season, split between A and high A - minor league OPS .641 - low average, no power
- Eric King, age 25, 2B - 13th round of the 05 draft - finished first year in high A - had a 599 OPS and i would guess he is gonna repeat high A - so not a prospect.
- Mark Ori, age 24, 1B - drafted in the 14th round of the 05 draft - low average and no power says it all.
- Pat Osborn, age 27, 1B - nope - .714 OPS over 6 minor league seasons, none higher than AA says it all
- Ole Sheldon, age 25, 1B - 14th round of the 04 draft - had an 856 OPS, but only 178 AB - wonder if he as hurt - but he’s getting kinda old for A ball or even AA.
- Wladimir Sutil, age 23, 2B - signed as a non-drafted FA from Venezuela in 03 - has like zero power, a .284 BA and a ..355 OBP - last year, stole 36 and was CS 10 times. Reminds me of Willy Taveras
- Tim Torres, age 24, 2B/SS - drafted in the 23rd round of the 06 draft - finished his first full year split between A ball and high A, has a minor league OPS of 770 - steals bases well.
- Mitch Einertson, age 22, OF - signed in 5th round of 04 draft, hyped to the skies after his 04 rookie season, sucked beyond belief in 05 and 06, but suddenly remembered h0w to hit last year and ended the year at high A with a .847 OPS, now being hyed again.
- Eli Iorg, age 25, RF - drafted in the first round of the 05 draft and has spent most of the subsequent time hurt. Last year, in 162 AB, he had a .857 OPS - and he’s being heavily hyped. We’ll see how he does in AA this year, but even if he’s ready for the majors in a few years, there’s no place for him unless Lee gets hurt.
- Cesar A Quintero, age 25, LF - has had only 225 AB at high A and had a 661 OPS.
- Ryan Reed, age 24, OF - drafted in round 21 of the 04 draft. Had 279 AB, 17 BB, 78 K and a .724 OPS. Nuff said.
- Orlando Rosales, age 24, CF - 16th round of the 06 draft. Hit 283, won’t walk, has no power, strikes out a lot, doesn’t steal many bases. Blech.

And that’s the lot.

A couple, maybe, position players, a few pitchers. That’s all she wrote.

Now I agree that Towles wasn’t on anyone’s list at the beginning of the year last year after finishing A-ball and here he is one year later, a starting catcher in the majors. So there really IS a lot of youneverknow about young players…

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 6th, 2008 at 10:45 pm and is filed under Felipe Paulino, J.R. Towles, Astros baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.