Still Bourn
I received the following email today from a man named Kevin Hayward:
Here’s a riddle for the Houston Astros to chew on: how valuable is an incredible base runner that rarely reaches base?When the Astros acquired Michael Bourn they envisioned a spark plug at the top of the order, a speedy center fielder who could get on and steal bases. So far Bourn has fulfilled only the less important of the two expectations: he leads the Majors in stolen bases with 17, but that’s only because he steals just about every time he reaches base. In 34 games, Bourn is hitting .198 with an OBP of .269. Houston is playing some great baseball at this stage of the season, so it’s easy enough to overlook Bourn’s struggles. But at some point, a “slow start” or an “early-season slump” are no longer fair descriptors for plain ineptitude.If the Astros plan to make a run at the NL Central, they need to end the Bourn Experiment sooner rather than later. Let Hunter Pence play center and bat leadoff, and use Bourn in the role best suited for his talents: pinch runner.
OK
Let me see if I get this straight - after 145 PA as a major league regular, Kevin thinks the Astros should completely give up on this 25 year old guy and relegate him to the Cheito Cruz rubbish heap. Yes, I know his numbers aren’t even up to his numbers last year as a PH/DR - at this point he’s 26/131 with 13 BB, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 16 RS, 17 SB, no CS for a .198/.269/.298/.567 line and yes, I know it isn’t even up to Adam Everett’s line that everyone was screaming about last year, seeing as how Adam Everett was responsible for the Astros not winning last year. And, by the way, Bourn plays defense at an Adam Everett elite level even though I know that a whole lot of people really REALLY think that saving runs has exactly zero value to a ball club, that only BA/OBP matters.
Even though Bourn is technically not a rookie, having spent the entirety of last year on a ML roster, he IS a rookie as a full time position player and he is still learning; he’s not a washed up vet like Cruz and yet, Kevin thinks it is more than reasonable to permanently determine that a total of 145 PA in the major leagues is sufficient to eliminate him as a major leaguer.
He GOTTA be kidding.
Let me get this straight - any rookie hitting like Berkman after 145 PA really IS the next Pujols? (Might could I remind Kevin of the April whiz kid, Chris Shelton)? Good thing the Red Sox last year felt that 145 PA was more than enough to evaluate, then DFA that April washout, Dustin Pedroia?
On what planet is 145 PA is more than enough to judge a ballplayer learning to adjust to ML pitching AND hitting leadoff? We aren’t talking about this new player becoming a superduper star, we are talking about him becoming a ML regular. We aren’t talking about having him bat second, or even 8th or 9th. We are talking about deciding right here and now that this kid is now and forever, a failure, and should not figure in the plans of the team, except as a PR/DR, seeing as how he sure won’t be even pinch hitting much.
I understand why the team removed Chris Burke last year, after approximately the same number of PA, and, by the way, hitting MUCH better, and we all know that “good guy” Biggio wasn’t about to let Burke near second, home or away, after getting his 70 hits; actually, they should have just traded Burkie-poo after they decided to go with Pence, but I digress… Anyway, they removed Burke because they had a CF in waiting at AAA who they believed could hit ML pitching better than the man they were replacing and who, if he succeeded, would be a regular OF for years to come. And Burkie-poo, by the way, was removed when he was hitting .238/.344/.388/.732 - and he was hitting in the 6-hole, not even his natural spot, which was leadoff (my “good guy” and his .240 OBP was cemented there. But I digress…) and that was, essentially, the end of his Astros career.
Anyway, I think the team had a very reasonable plan - discard one player for a MUCH better one, AND one who will most likely be a better CF for the next 6 years.
But with Bourn, who is going to take his place? Kevin wants Pence to leadoff. Why? He doesn’t walk much, won’t have that magical .350 OBP unless he gets his batting average up over .310 and it wastes his power. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t take many pitches. Why wouldn’t you put Kaz Matsui, who has essentially a .330 OBP and is a singles hitter and base stealer at leadoff? Matsui takes more pitches than Pence, too.
And then the Astros should replace Bourn with exactly who? And remember we are talking about essentially removing him from the Astros future plans because he sure as heck is not gonna learn to hit ML pitching sitting on his dead butt on the bench all year long. Who is this new Pence?
Let me guess - Mr. Singles Hitter, 34 year old Darin Erstad, Mr. If he ain’t hurt, he’s gettin ready to get hurt, a guy who is now on the downside of his career - should play right and Pence play center. Because let’s face it - Erstad is not going to be even as good as Pence in that enormous CF at home - he can’t run as fast as he used to and his range ain’t what it used to be - and he isn’t even up to Pence any longer and Pence was basically just a little above league average.
Let’s take a look at Erstad’s last 5 years performance (let me guess - years and years of stats mean zero compared to this year’s 55 PA, right? I mean, you don’t need no stinkin 145 PA for THIS guy because he happened to start off strongly, right?)
2003: 284 PA - .252/.309/.333/.642 - 9 SB, 1 CS
2004: 543 PA - .295/.346/.400/.746 - 16 SB, 1 CS
2005: 667 PA - .273/.325/.371/.696 - 10 SB, 3 CS
2006: 105 PA - .221/.279/.326/.605 - 1 SB, 1 CS
2007: 347 PA - .248/.310/.335/.645 - 7 SB, 1 CS
Average OPS over those 5 years is .689. Whoopie doo. Definitely worth throwing a good young player out the window after his first 145 PA. AND he won’t be near the distraction on the bases that Bourn is, neither.
Or maybe Kevin thinks we have all these Hunter Pences in the minors, just ready and waiting. Let’s see:
At AAA:
- Yordany Ramirez, age 23, RH: .186/.198/.271/.470 over 118 AB (might could he be a tad overmatched by AAA pitching? Makes you wonder why the team released Victor Diaz and his .395 OBP/.350 SLG)
- Reggie Abercrombie, age 27, RH, AKA “The Windmill” - 45 K in 129 AB - .271/.293/.465/.768 - 3 E, 4 BB, 9 SB, 5 CS in 134 PA; and, in case you are wondering, here are his ML numbers over 331 AB: .208/.263/.329/.592 which, by the way, are not even up to Brad Ausmus/Adam Everett…
- Nick Gorneault, age 29, RH: .218/.307/.376/.683 in 101 AB: 1 E, 4 SB, 1 CS
Josh Anderson looks like Matt Holliday next to these guys.
At AA:
Mitch Einertson, age 22, RH: .229/.271/.420/.691 - 2 E, no SB/CS in 131 AB
Josh Flores, age 23, RH (on DL)
Billy Hart, age 25, RH: .288/.380/.442/.822 - 0 E, 6 SB, 4 CS in 104 AB
Eli Iorg, age 25, RH: 264/.314/.448/.762 - 2 E, 5 SB, 3 CS in 125 AB
Ray Sadler, age 27, RH: .316/.391/.568/.958 - 1 E, 2 SB, 1 CS in 95 AB
Do any of all yall see any Hunter Pences, because I sure don’t. And I don’t know if any of these guys can play center OR right - and I SERIOUSLY doubt that this Organization is going to promote a guy who is almost 28 from AA to the bigs, don’t you? Hart was long ago designated as a minor leaguer lifer - he might could be the next Chris Coste, but with Ed Wade’s prize at stake, I wouldn’t hold my breath and I seriously doubt Billy is holding his either. I didn’t bother going down to search A ball - those guys really only get called up straight to the majors in “Bull Durham” so that Annie doesn’t have to tell the poor guy she’s in love with someone else so he gets all depressed and develops Steve Blass Syndrome and is OOB after the year and has to work selling insurance and Annie and Crash feel so guilty that they never get together and Crash goes on to work at the gas station and Annie leaves the Church of Baseball and joins a convent. That’s what you call a bad ending that the audience doesn’t like any bettern Crash, Annie and Nuke do - and this is why we aren’t going down to look in A ball.
Where was I?
Oh yeah. I sure as heck don’t see any Hunter Pences that other teams are ready to trade away and frankly, if you are worried about Michael Bourn’s bat being such a detriment to this team, I sure can’t see trading away any quality bat we have in the minors (and, by the way, I sure don’t see one) and we don’t HAVE any more quality pitchers to trade.
I certainly hope that Kevin doesn’t mean signing the overcooked Jim Edmonds who can’t hit anything faster than Roy’s slow curve and has lost more than a few steps in center. For goodness sakes, the Padres, who are STARVED for hitters let him go.
And last but not least, WHY replace Bourn at all? This team is winning like crazy even WITH his .297 OBP and after all, a win is a win and it is not as if we just needed one more big bat and Pence is clearly blocking him. We have no NEED to replace an ace glove, ace baserunner/basestealer and his weak bat for the average glove and the mediocre bat of a vet on his last legs because right NOW, it surely isn’t needed to help the team win and it CERTAINLY won’t help the team win in the future, neither.
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25 Responses to “Still Bourn”
May 13th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Lisa,
I saw that link on deadspin yesterday and clicked on it to see if the text was as stupid as the headline.
It was. I responded to his post (I’m “anonymous”) to gently tell him he’s clueless about the lineup construction of the Houston Astros.
What. a. tool.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:35 am
will,
dude would have a point if this was september and we were in the middle of a pennant race and it was obvious that bourn was costing us wins, coming up empty with MOB (WILLY!!!!!!!!) and we really NEEDED even a somewhat better bat.
but throwing away this guy’s career right NOW?
or platooning him with erstad? (as he suggested to me)
sorry. that is NOT smart
May 13th, 2008 at 10:52 am
It makes no sense whatsoever. I asked him what purpose it would serve, and his response was “yeah but they’re winning IN SPITE of Bourn.”
Huh? Um, they’re winning, foo! If you want a serious discussion about the Astros chances to contend for the NL Central crown, Michael Bourn isn’t the primary concern. His speed and defense alone are reasons to keep him in the lineup every day. If he starts getting on base at a .340 rate the offense will only be that much better, but even as it is now he’s not costing his team games. The primary concern in order would be starting pitching (Sampson and Backe especially), middle relief (Bork and Villlareal), and then the rookie hitters.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Look, I like stats as much as the next guy. In fact, I majored in Math and Probability at Stanford (yeah, I know, what a geek) so I probably like numbers more than just about anyone. But people aren’t numbers, and teams aren’t numbers — they’re people.
So the goal is *not* to have everyone have perfect numbers for their position. The goal is to Win. Win the game. Win each series. Win the division. Win the pennant. Win the World Series. That’s the goal.
The Yankees go out and buy the players with the best numbers at each position. And they keep doing it. And do they win all the time? No. It takes more than that.
Does it improve your odds to win if you have a higher OPS? Yes, it does. But that’s not the point. The point is if the team is winning together, you just don’t mess with it! RESPECT THE STREAK! If you think that breathing through your eyes is the reason you’re winning, then it is, and just keep believing it.
And if the ’stros keep scoring gobs o’ runs and winning with a leadoff guy sporting a .200 OBP, then shut up and enjoy it! There’s never a better time to learn than when the pressure’s off liek it is right now.
At the Major League level, guys are always >
May 13th, 2008 at 10:57 am
weird, my post got truncated. as I was saying,
At the Major League level, guys are always a nanometer away from falling into a slump or breaking out into a hot streak. It’s more than numbers. It’s chemistry. It’s mental. It’s eating the exact same chicken meal before each game for 13 years. It’s a pink bat. It’s not a pink bat. It’s a lot of things.
But it sure isn’t 145 at bats from a 25-year-old. I’m excited to watch Michael Bourn play, and I want him to hit leadoff all year and get 700 plate appearances so he really gets a chance to learn how to hit. And when he does, the pitchers will adjust. And then he’ll have to adjust, just as Hunter Pence is learning to do right now. Baseball is soooooo interesting that way.
Bourn is already a Major League Center Fielder, and he is so much fun to watch. I expect he’ll learn to get on base, also.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:18 am
will,
i asked him HOW having bourn in the lineup was costing the astros wins, to please give examples, and i got nowhere
he just showed me erstad’s lifetime stats as a leadoff guy, like that is helpful
steve,
i really think that the problem is that kevin and other guys are fantasy league thinkers - you want the best stats you are getting currently in each position AND defense counts for zero in fantasy.
you can’t find stats for mental OR chemistry, but i invite everyone to take a look at the effect of mr prima donna last year…
May 13th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Yeah, I don’t understand the Bourn haters, either. I’m thinking either he’s the second coming of Willie Mays, and when he finally adjusts to ML pitching he’s going to be a 10-time All-Star and a first-ballot HOF-er. OR. Some decent coach will fix his bunting and get him out of the box quickly, and teach him to hit slow rollers, and he will bat .750, and then be a 10-time All-Star and a first-ballot HOF-er.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Lisa-Your good, your real good…..and I totally agree. Let Bourn work through his OBP problems and put up with his perfection on the base paths and great defense, (that catch was Mays-like). The only thing I may do is sit him a bit more often, (seems like Coop is already doing that), and possibly drop him in the order. But for now I let him figure it out on his own that his way in this MLB world is to get on base any way possible.
May 13th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Bourn’s value to this team right now is first and formeost as an outstanding defensive CF. The baserunning is a great weapon and I’m sure he’ll develop at the dish. My only thought might be to drop him toward the back end of the lineup to take some pressure off. He is getting a lot of heat in the 1 hole and I think Matsui and Pence can certainly hold down the top off the order for a while.
A baseball guy I respect suggested batting Bourne 9th for a while but I just don’t understand the logic of ever having a position player hit 9th. Can someone give me a rational argument for that?
May 13th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Young guys have a chance to get better. Bourn needs to get on base more. IT ISNT THAT HARD. A player with a good eye and a sharp bat can get on base plenty, take your walks (and then steal second) and hit’em where they aint (then steal second) Bourn will get it, from what I have seen he is a solid young baseball player. I am willing to give him time to develop.
As for all you haters out there… what are you complaining about? WE ARE WINNING. Rule #1: Dont mess up a good thing, ask any coach.
May 13th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
marmer,
- patiently
willie mays? i think not. i’d be delighted with brett butler
and NO question, bourn has GOT to work on his bunting
jasbevo,
i think the idea of batting a position player 9th instead of the pitcher is so that you won’t have the pitcher coming up with 2 outs as often
on the other hand, is putting BOTH towles and bourn in the 7/8 hole gonna do them any good? remember, if you please, how adam everett and brad ausmus were responsible for the astros losing and those 2 rooks do NOT need all that pressure.
and as my daddy sez,
if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it
May 13th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Exactly!
Why in the world would anyone want a speedster like Bourn batting in front of JR Towles and the pitcher? I want him in front of the Matsui the Magician and the Murderers Row that follows.
All this Bourn hand-wringing is a product of fantasy league gasbags and their omnipresent need to find something to complain about.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
A little off topic… something i submitted to ESPN today:
I am very disapointed in your coverage of the Houston Astros. There is
never any mention of the fantastic ball they are playing right now and I have to think that if any of your “favorite” players (A-Rod, any Red
Sox, Pujols etc) were doing what Lance Berkman was doing there would be
multiple segments with analyst pushing for early MVP consideration and
constant highlight reel and stat recognition. Honestly its gotten old
hearing about the Yankees and Red Sox constantly and never getting a
comprehensive coverage of sports.
Their response:
We value feedback and suggestions from our fans. Your suggestion
regarding Houston Astros coverage is very much appreciated and will be
forwarded to the appropriate department for review.
how lame… what a waste of my time, Im surprised they knew how to spell ASTROS.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Travis, that’s a computer generated response — I know how it works :)
But since you mentioned it, I said the same thing to Buster Olney yesterday — his blog went on and on about maple vs. ash bats and then went into coverage of every team in the majors with links to local news on those teams and a few comments from Olney (as he always does).
Amazingly, he covered almost every single team EXCEPT HOUSTON! And this is on the day when we are the hottest team in the Majors, have the hottest player on the planet, and just swept the Dodgers (yes, he talked about the Dodgers and pointed to some articles on how poorly they are doing).
Geez, this really sux. But I’m not going to let it spoil HOW MUCH FUN I’M HAVING watching the ’stros kick everyone’s butt up.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
will,
i actually think the best slot to break in a new guy is the 6 or 7 hole so they don’t have the disadvantage of batting in front of the pitcher. but we’re breaking 2 new guys in and seeing as how they are awesome defensively AND there is plenty of offense from the other guys, i’d just rather leave them be
travis,
heroic effort, but naturally it got filed under “who cares”
about 5 or 6 years ago, espn decided to focus on ny/boston/cubs and pretty much ignore everyone else not named barry bonds. they hype up their pets endlessly until bout everyone gets the idea that no one else is worth watching/talking about
and steve, buster olney is a rabid yankees fan
it is so ridiculous - the media SKREEEEEMZ about how prefessional athletes are these terrible guys and bad rold models and here we have got this great professional athlete who is (best i know) a great role model and they ignore him because he’s not hot and he’s too boring - a regular guy, not a *STAR*
all horse stuff
- but as much as i HATE DETEST ABHOR interleague ball, all i can say is that when the yecchs/sux invade the Box, i hope the astros tear espn’s darlings a new one…
May 13th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
(cross-posted from earlier topic)….
I try mightily to not care about the perpetual disrespect the national sports media pays to Houston sports teams, but I fail more often than I succeed.
The lack of attention to Lance Berkman just flat-out pisses me off. What he’s doing now is beyond words, and ESPN’s silence proves it.
I caught the highlights of last night’s game on First Take earlier this morning. It went something like this: “Back to baseball…Astros Giants in San Francisco, Barry Zito on the mound, Giants leading 3-1. (cut to video of Lance’s bomb). Aaaaaand that’s a home run. Tough break for Barry Zito, Astros go on to win 7-3.”
Not only did Jay Crawford neglect to mention the Puma’s 3-4 night or the mind-boggling tear he’s on, HE DIDN’T EVEN MENTION HIS NAME!!! He gave an aww shucks for Zito without bothering to tell the viewer who the batter was who hit the bomb.
ESPN is a joke.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
will,
i read this entry by some MSM guy whose name i forget at the minute, but his column was all about him missing barry lamar (and he was one of the guys who wanted him tarred and feathered, too) and how there are NO compelling STARS!! in baseball these days…
jeff pearlman wrote a book about barry called “love me hate me”
and truth is that the media relation with hism is “love to hate him and now we miss His Presence” because guys like lance berkman who seem like regular guys who go out to have fun playing baseball are not worth camera time
and of course, barry is/was an incredibly good-looking charismatic guy. lance just isn’t.
- smile
you’d think that MLB would WANT to promote guys like lance. but actually, the LAST thing they REALLY want is the guy next door who likes to talk about BBQ
May 13th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Changing the subject again, I’m sure you saw this from Roy: “The last three innings, instead of trying to pitch to contact, I quit pitching to contact,” Oswalt said. “It seems like every game, I get in counts 2-1, 3-1, 3-0. Just kind of pitching for contact instead of pitching to beat a guy in the zone.”
Oswalt recorded five strikeouts in his final three innings of work.
“I’m going to go right at them,” he said. “I felt a lot better the last three innings.”
Boy howdy did he look good. I’m not sure pitching to contact is such a good idea for Roy. It works for Maddux, and it sounds good in theory, but some guys need to just rear back and light it up. Like Nolan Ryan. Maybe Roy should just forget about pitch counts and be Roy.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
What’s weird is in the last game, Roy said that he started pitching to contact after the third to get his pitch down. Whatever works for him. I’ll take 8 IP 3 ER 5H and 6 K’s any day with this offense. Also, I think this is the first time he has had a WHIP under 1.00 for a start. If he starts pitching like this, and Wandy comes back strong, that would be huge for this team.
Anyway, its amazing that with two starters under the Mendoza line, this team is playing this good, but that makes it fine to me. Bourn saves runs too, so that offsets some of his OBP problem. Also, its seems that his spped is transferring to everyone else by osmosis. I never remember seeing so many steals and double steals. I thing Pence and Wiggy pulled off a double steal!! The only thing this team seemingly doesn’t do is the suicide squeeze, like Garner did. As long as this team stays over .500, and in the division race, let Bourn and Towles play. This team is playing better than anyone expected, and are just exciting to watch. Imagine the last two games. We scored 0 runs through 6 in LA, and none through 5 last night, and we ended up scoring 15. Keep on chugging!!
May 13th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Totally off the subject. I just traipsed over to the Cubs area of this networkand found this all too telling quote:
I have my first child due in the next few months, and I can’t envision bringing him or her into a world in which Jim Edmonds is a Chicago Cub.
Me, I’m just happy we’ve got Bourn out there and not Hollywood Edmonds.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
steve,
yeah, i heard roy say that. and as far as i’m concerned, he can pitch however he wants to that gets guys out.
daniel,
pence and wiggy have pulled off the double steal TWICE. basically darn near everyone is running.
wags,
well, edmonds is long since cooked and i don’t want him on THIS team.
lisa
May 14th, 2008 at 2:09 am
Well, I guess they weren’t going to win *every* game. It looks like they had about a week’s worth or mental errors, mistakes and bad plays. This park always brings out the worst in them. I hope they got all that bad stuff out of their system.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:50 am
[…] 41 points lower than Rickie’s. He may steal a lot of bases, but he simply cannot get on base.The Astros Dugout takes a different perspective. Sure, Michael has been unproductive this season to say the least, […]
July 4th, 2008 at 12:46 am
why is it that billy hart is considered a career minor leaguer? its my knowledge that while he is a little old he is still developing and his development was stalled by playing college football and that he is quite an athlete
July 4th, 2008 at 8:44 am
adam,
it’s not MY decision/opinion. it’s the ORGANIZATION’S decision/opinion.
they basically immediately designate most guys for the minors and are not willing to give them a chance. and unless they guys hit, slug and field like barry lamar in the 90s, the guys won’t get a chance. and some guys who ARE incredible ballplayers won’t get a chance neither because the Organization doesn’t like their religion or attitude or whatever.
i’ve seen plenty of guys whose numbers look great who NEVER get a chance to prove themselves - the club would rather have a Proven Veteran at their position - even a cheap one - than give the guy a chance.
what can i say
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