MVN - Most Valuable Network

What Can Brown Do For You?

I was all set to pontificate on the value of Emil Brown to the Oakland A’s, but Daniel Rathman has already done an excellent job of it over on MVN’s MLB Source. I definitely recommend you checking it out.

I’ll add a little bit to Rathman’s discussion of Brown. As a “modern-day” Oakland A’s fan used to valuing OBP, SLG, Pitches per Plate Appearance, etc., it is hard to look at Brown and not see all of his flaws. Through Monday, Brown was only posting a meager .315 OBP and his SLG was well-below average for a corner outfielder at .410. The .287 BA is fine, but relatively empty from a power-and-patience perspective.

And, yet, it is difficult to ignore the number in the RBI column. Brown has a remarkable 27 RBIs through May 5th, a pace that would give him 135 RBIs over a 160-game season. While RBIs are a team-dependent stat, it is also hard to ignore that Brown is hitting .444 with runners in scoring position and that he has picked up 22 RBIs in only 27 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Logic tells you that these numbers won’t continue. As Brown’s reputation for hitting with runners in scoring position increases around the league, teams will likely stop throwing him challenge pitches with runners on-base, and at that point, his lack of patience will likely hurt the team. But until that happens, it seems likely that Brown will continue to pile up good RBI totals given his aggressive approach.

The early success of players like Brown is especially encouraging when one considers that the A’s have even better alternatives behind Brown that can take over for him when he starts to fall back towards the mean. When teams start to figure out how to approach Brown with runners on-base, the A’s can change it up by bringing up top prospect Carlos Gonzalez, who will give Oakland a completely different look in their line-up. That move may also allow the A’s to bring someone like Brown off of the bench in situations where he is likely to get that challenge pitch with runners on base. 

It is also likely that the A’s will be adding Eric Chavez to the middle of their line-up midway through the season, which should be a boost over the production the team is currently getting from their third basemen. Last season, the A’s fell apart when injuries set-in and starters slumped because they didn’t have much depth at the Triple-A level or on the bench. This year, Oakland will only be forced to stick with a player like Brown for as long as that player is productive and no longer.

I think that this season will give the A’s front office a chance to experiment with all sorts of line-ups and theories. There is very little for the A’s to lose this season, given the expectations going into the year. Consequently, it will be a great time for the team to throw a whole bunch of different things against the wall to see if they will stick. They should feel free to try guys in different spots in the line-up (I liked Barton hitting first) or in different positions on the field. There is no harm in testing whether it is better to have more offense at the expense of outfield defense (as the team is currently experiencing with Jack Cust in left and Frank Thomas at DH) is the right formula for success, or whether putting aggressive hitters like Brown behind patient hitters like Thomas and Barton is the way to maximize the production of those aggressive hitters. Who knows? Maybe the A’s will find a formula that works for them. Worst case scenario is that they fall back out of a pennant race they weren’t expected to compete in.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 at 10:15 am and is filed under Baseball strategy, Players, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.