MVN - Most Valuable Network

Speed Bump, Or Course Correction?

The scrappy 2008 Oakland A’s have hit their first major speed-bump this season, dropping five of their first six games on a road-trip and scoring a total of two runs in a three-game series. The losses haven’t dropped them back much in the standings, but the A’s suddenly look punchless after a rip-roaring first five weeks of the season. How much should we read into this six-game slide? Is it just one of those streaks, or a sign of things to come?

Unfortunately, had the A’s started the season this way, many of us wouldn’t have been surprised. This was, after all, supposed to be a rebuilding year, and the biggest race the A’s were predicted to be a part of was whether they could out-win their sad-sack cousins across the Bay. Expectations have a way of changing, however, when a team finds itself with one of the best records in baseball five weeks into the season. So now that the A’s are playing like we expected them to at the start of the year, many of us are left disappointed.

There are a million reasons why one should believe that this streak is the start of a long season for the A’s. And the million-and-first reason may have come late in today’s game, when super reliever Santiago Casilla left the game with a bad-looking elbow injury. If Casilla is out for the year, the A’s seemingly invincible bullpen will take a mighty blow.

But, fighting my pessimist nature, I am choosing to believe that this past week of play is more in the category of aberration for the green-and-gold than a portend of things to come. The A’s might not make the playoffs when all is said and done this season, but I think they are closer to being the team that cruised through April than the team that is 6-7 in May.  On the A’s Scout.com messageboard, there is a thing called Sniff-optimism that has brought a smile to my face through many a losing streak over the past few years. So with a nod to Sniff, here are my optimistic reasons why the A’s will turn this around:

1) The starting pitching is for real: Greg Smith hasn’t been Cy Young in his last two outings, but he hasn’t pitched that badly, either. And he has been the worst of the A’s starters (save Rich Harden) through the last turn through the rotation. Nearly any team in baseball, with the exception of the Cleveland Indians, would take Greg Smith as their “worst” starter right now. And the A’s still have Chad Gaudin in reserve if/when another injury strikes the rotation and a plethora of candidates to choose from in Triple-A if the injuries mount. With a strong starting rotation like this one, the A’s should be able to avoid having too many long losing streaks.

2) The bullpen can get it done. The bullpen without Santiago Casilla will definitely be weaker, but Huston Street and company are still a good-looking unit even without Mr. Casilla. Joey Devine has been a godsend since being promoted, while Street, Andrew Brown and Alan Embree have all pitched well, for the most part. Gaudin can slide into Casilla’s role until he is needed in the rotation, Keith Foulke should give the team some decent innings and Kiko Calero is almost back from his rehab for a sore shoulder. Oh, and Brad Ziegler is on fire in Triple-A (0.49 ERA in 18.1 innings), while Jerry Blevins is pitching well after a bad first outing of the season (2.03 ERA after that outing). So the depth is there for the bullpen, as well.

3) The hitting will improve: if only because it can’t get any worse. Right now, everybody seems to be hitting a bad streak at the same time. It happens. Daric Barton looks lost at the plate at the moment, but no worries, he started off slow last season before hitting better than .400 in June. He’ll come around. Mark Ellis was starting to hit better before his hamstring sidelined him, Jack Cust will throw a hot streak or two in there before the end of the year and Kurt Suzuki will get back to his .275/.360 self soon enough. I’m not sure what to think of Frank Thomas at the moment. He has become a glorified singles hitter and looks to be pressing to hit the ball to the moon. Nevertheless, Mike Sweeney looks revitalized, so if Thomas continues to slug like Jason Kendall, the A’s can always go back to Sweeney and cut Thomas loose. Jack Hannahan has hit well after a slow start to the season (.321 with a .487 OBP) and he could be a keeper off of the bench even when Eric Chavez returns.

4) About that return: Reinforcements are on the way. I think the biggest recovery for the A’s offense will come from tonight’s River Cats’ line-up, which should feature Travis Buck, Carlos Gonzalez and that almost forgotten man, Eric Chavez. It isn’t unreasonable to think that those three guys could be the A’s best three hitters during the second half of this season. Of course, they are no sure thing, but they do give the A’s a reason to believe that their offense could get healthy in a hurry.

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 15th, 2008 at 3:30 pm and is filed under General, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.