A’s Must Find Consistency at the Dish
After salvaging the final game of a three-game set versus the Rays, Wednesday, the A’s will take the day off before hosting the AL-best Red Sox this weekend. Hopefully, they’ll use this respite to work on their offense which has looked alternately robust and anemic this season, laying dormant for days on end before suddenly, like yesterday’s 9-1 beatdown, coming alive. No team in the majors has played feast or famine the way Oakland has on offense so far this season. In fact, the pitching has remained remarkably consistent, win or lose. In 25 Oakland victories this year, the pitching staff has allowed just 2.96 runs per game. In 23 defeats, where you would expect a measured rise in opponents’ production, the staff has allowed 4.16 runs per game, a mere 1.2 RPG difference. Indeed, the determining factor for the green and gold this year has been offensive output. In 25 wins, the A’s score plenty–6.84 RPG. At that rate, and combined with the previously mentioned pitching, it’s no wonder they’re winning. However, in the 23 losses the A’s have only managed a paltry 1.76 RPG, a difference of over 5 RPG. Now, I know this sounds like common sense. “No crap, scoring runs helps you win games.” True enough. But the dependability of the arms and the inconsistency of the bats should clue A’s management into what needs work on off days like today.
As far as yesterday’s game goes, there was a lot of good news to take away from the park. Dana Eveland continued his strong debut season with the A’s, throwing just 95 pitches and allowing only 3 hits in his first career complete game. Eveland’s pitching, along with rookie Greg Smith’s strong early showing, continues to put critics of the A’s off-season shake up in their place. That the A’s have gotten so much production out of their off-season deals without even seeing Carlos or Gio Gonzalez in a regular season game is baffling.
More baffling still is the ability of Jack Cust to remain in the starting lineup, day in and day out. I realize the Frank Thomas pick-up meant keeping three DHs on the 25-man roster, and I realize that necessarily forbids any kind of lineup flexibility, but I can’t fathom how Cust has managed to stay in left field every day, given his (before yesterday) meager offensive output and inability to make routine catches. Whatever confidence Bob Geren has in Cust can only be described as slightly mad. Even after yesterday’s pair of homers, Cust has still driven in only 17 runs this season, fewer than rookie Ryan Sweeney who has hit only 1 HR. Whatever Cust has done to ingratiate himself with his skipper, it’s clearly working. I couldn’t make out what Geren said after the second of Cust’s home runs yesterday afternoon, but it was probably something along the lines of “Somebody help me. I’m completely beholden to this baby-faced hack,” as he penciled him in for the next 35 games in left.
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15 Responses to “A’s Must Find Consistency at the Dish”
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 am
Cust currently leads the team in BB, HR, OBP, and SLG. He is also second in runs. RBI is a pretty poor stat to gauge performance.
I think his offense more than makes up for his poor fielding at the moment. Do you want to replace him with a Sweeney/Brown/R. Davis outfield? When Buck and CGonz come up to the big club, I think you will have a better argument.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:34 am
All of those stats are true, but they also aren’t very impressive because the A’s don’t have a single position player with good numbers. If he isn’t going to play outfield defense as well as most Babe Ruth League players then he should be required to tear the cover off the ball, not just hit ok. I’m not exactly wowed by his .254 batting average and 13 extra base hits.
And I would argue that 17 RBI is a telling stat considering he bats in the middle of the lineup every day and he’s given away nearly that many runs with his glove. He’s only on pace to knock in 62 runs while striking out 161 times.
The answer, to me, is yes. I would prefer solid defense and anything at all at the plate to the total Cust package. Though it’s always possible that he’ll get hot.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:52 am
It’s probably Beane and not Geren that has the Cust crush. Beane loves a high OBP for little money.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Jack Cust has an OBP of over .400. He has an EqA of .326. He is on pace to be more than 40 runs above average with the bat. That’s not “good” offense, that’s elite offense. Carlos Lee was about 20 runs above average with the bat last season, and Carlos Lee gives away at least as much in the field as Cust does.
You can argue that putting Cust in the middle of the order is not correct (I think he should be batting 2nd on this team), but suggesting that he should be benched is– there’s really no polite way to put this– complete idiocy.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I would also like to see Cust bat second in the lineup rather than the middle of the order. That would probably maximize his value given his unique skill set. Also, I am not arguing for Jack Cust’s benching. Rather, I was pointing out that the man is clearly a DH and has proven many times this season that he is a liability in the field. Yet, he keeps getting thrown out there with sometimes embarrassing results.
At the risk of waltzing blissfully unaware into the realm of complete idiocy again, I would suggest that no matter how many of Bill James’ pet stats one considers, it shouldn’t blind one to common sense. I don’t believe that any player who puts the ball in play as infrequently as Cust can possibly be considered “elite.” Most of his plate appearances end in walks or strikeouts. Those that don’t rarely result in base hits.
Walks are nice, but 60 total bases in 43 games should not be mistaken for an “elite” performance.
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Even without yesterday’s 2 HRs, Cust would still be second on the team in slugging, so the middle of the order is right where he should be. And why do you think Sweeney, Crosby, etc have as many RBIs as they do? Maybe because Cust is always on base for them?
Cust is hitting .383 when he doesn’t whiff, and .323 when he doesn’t whiff or homer - both well above average. The strikeouts are frustrating, but you have to take the bad with the good. It may not always be pretty, but Cust is absolutely one of the elite hitters in the league, and his bat more than makes up for his problems in the field.
May 23rd, 2008 at 7:48 am
Well, the last thing I’ll say on this point is that Cust is hitting under .200 and slugging under .400 with RISP, which is not what you want in the middle of the order and, again, while getting on base is nice, it isn’t like Cust burns up the base paths. He’s a station to station runner. My intention was never to take away from Cust’s real skills (power and patience), rather that he was being used foolishly because the A’s have a real roster flexibility issue. All you have to do is watch him out there in left field for a few chances before he does something a little bit sad. I only even mentioned his offense to show that he hasn’t exactly been a force at the plate and yet he starts in left most days.
And finally, anybody who thinks that what they have seen from Cust this season is “elite” hitting, they’re probably in denial. I can guarantee that when you ask scouts or analysts for the elite hitters in the game, Cust won’t be part of the discussion.
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:54 am
Hi Matthew,
Interesting opinion. Your writing is a bit too argumentative for me. I actually agree with you on most of the points you make although I’m not a big fan of your delivery or the tone in some of your responses–I too am surprised that Cust is in the field as often as he is, but I also recognize that we need a lot of offensive help, there aren’t a ton of choices and that there is some value in having him there.
I also agree with Paul that occasionally having him hit second seems like a better move (although I thought the same think about Mike Sweeney), but really, our whole offense is so inconsistent that its been a total crapshoot in determining productivity.
I think a similar, albeit slightly different case could be made for another person in the middle of the lineup–Emil Brown. he barely walks at all so his OBP is terrible, and his average is not that great either–but he has a bit of pop and he’s been clutch with the RBI’s….yet he is consistently in the lineup. Not sure what’s worse –hitting for a low BA, low OBP, high RBI and less than stellar defense or hitting for a low BA, high OBP, low RBI and defense that is so bad that it’s uncomfortable to watch (like watching my own 2nd grader try and catch a popup in little league–I’m cheering for it but I’m very queasy until it lands). Seems to me that Geren’s choosing between a bunch of players that are really struggling right now at the plate. I get the feeling that a few of them are going to come around though (I’m an optimist) and it will be worth the wait–and a few will lose playing time to the Bucks/Gonzalez/Chavez’s who will be in Oakland at some point.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:02 am
Your larger point that the A’s need more consistent offense I accept. The fact that Cust and Thomas are starting to come around should help address this. I really like your writing and hope you keep it up, but I wonder what you’ll say if, at the end of this season, Babyface has more home runs and RBIs than last year. By the way, his left fielding is improving. Love Dad
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Wow. I don’t know what to say to that except that I love my father…and good thing I’ve never had pretensions about being taken seriously.
May 24th, 2008 at 6:31 am
Similarly, I hope I’m not taken too seriously either–after re-reading it I have thought….’why did I write that?’. Sorry Matt– hope you keep up the writing.
May 26th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
My new site HABS INSIDE/OUT IS for the gay sports fan.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
This entire article is somewhat baffling.
Starting with the title, I’m not sure why the A’s need to find “consistency,” other than to please Joe Morgan. I would be interested to see what your definition would be.
Likewise, the fact that the A’s have scored a lot when they win and not so much when they lose is hardly surprising. You state that this should “clue A’s management into what needs work.” I’m still waiting for someone to reveal the secret of “consistency,” or what huge clue the A’s management seems to be missing. If it’s that we need more offense, I would say they clearly got that clue; that’s why Cust is thrown out in left field every day.
As to how you can be baffled by Cust in LF, it’s been pointed out already: He’s one of the 5 best hitters in the AL, and with our other good hitter being Thomas, there isn’t anywhere else to put him. As for the RBIs, that’s a pretty silly ridiculous point. RBIs are a fun statistic, in the same way that putting on a rally cap is fun - it’s nice, but not really that meaningful. Cust and Thomas are clearly carrying this team right now, so it’s frankly just strange that you would call either of them out.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Cust is CONSISTANTLY the best hitter on the A’s– the MVP of the offense if you will.
I like the runs analysis, the A’s are getting way too many of their runs concentrated in games they don’t need them. Assuming they can spread out those runs, the A’s are one of the most underrated teams in the AL, and will make a legit run for 1st place or wildcard. Their biggest problem has nothing to do with the team, it has to do with the Angel’s defense. The Angels have insane defense to go with top-market pitching and hitting. Just one tough nut to crack, the Angels are what the A’s hope to be some day– a frigging all-star team at every position.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
The A’s are playing much better defense than the Angels this year. So far, we’ve turned 71.8% of all balls in play into outs, compared to 70.3% for the Angels.
Over at THT, they figure the A’s have made about 23 more outs than the average team based on the batted ball profile for out pitches, while the Angels have made 2 fewer outs. That translates into about 20 runs, or two full wins.
Given that we’ve allowed 33 fewer runs overall, it’s apparent that the A’s are significantly better at preventing runs.
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