Unfortunately for Gaudin, one could say that about pretty much every A’s starting pitcher right now. The A’s starting staff has the best ERA in the AL at 3.31, so one could easily make the argument that there isn’t a below-average starter in the rotation. That being the case, the A’s had to base their decision on factors other than effectiveness. The A’s were obviously not going to send Joe Blanton to the bullpen, and it would have been hard to move Greg Smith to the minor leagues given that he is among the AL leaders in numerous starting pitching categories. Dana Eveland has some experience in the bullpen, but he is someone who, after a few struggles in the big leagues in previous seasons, is finally experiencing success as a major league starter. To move him to the bullpen now could hamper that development and shake his new-found confidence. Justin Duchscherer, like Gaudin, has lots of previous experience as a reliever. However, he has been pretty adamant about staying in the rotation and the A’s probably want to see what they have in Duchscherer as a starter anyway.

Gaudin draws the short straw because he is the easiest pitcher to move into the bullpen. He has experience and good reliever stuff. In addition, he is someone who the A’s have seen in a starter’s role for more than a season, so they don’t need 34 starts this year, necessarily, to make a long-term judgment about Gaudin’s future in their rotation.

Some might ask why the A’s don’t move Rich Harden into the bullpen. I think that is a good question. My sense is that the A’s wouldn’t mind moving Harden in a trade and it will be easier to build up his value as a starter. Plus, if he is dominant, even just for a handful of starts, it will be more beneficial for the A’s to get those few starts than a handful of relief appearances (especially when you consider the current strength of the A’s bullpen).

I don’t think Gaudin is long for the bullpen. Chances are that the A’s will either trade Harden or Blanton or someone will get hurt or will start to struggle over the next several weeks. At that point, Gaudin should be able to move fairly easily back into the starting rotation.

I’ll add a little bit to Rathman’s discussion of Brown. As a “modern-day” Oakland A’s fan used to valuing OBP, SLG, Pitches per Plate Appearance, etc., it is hard to look at Brown and not see all of his flaws. Through Monday, Brown was only posting a meager .315 OBP and his SLG was well-below average for a corner outfielder at .410. The .287 BA is fine, but relatively empty from a power-and-patience perspective.

And, yet, it is difficult to ignore the number in the RBI column. Brown has a remarkable 27 RBIs through May 5th, a pace that would give him 135 RBIs over a 160-game season. While RBIs are a team-dependent stat, it is also hard to ignore that Brown is hitting .444 with runners in scoring position and that he has picked up 22 RBIs in only 27 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Logic tells you that these numbers won’t continue. As Brown’s reputation for hitting with runners in scoring position increases around the league, teams will likely stop throwing him challenge pitches with runners on-base, and at that point, his lack of patience will likely hurt the team. But until that happens, it seems likely that Brown will continue to pile up good RBI totals given his aggressive approach.

The early success of players like Brown is especially encouraging when one considers that the A’s have even better alternatives behind Brown that can take over for him when he starts to fall back towards the mean. When teams start to figure out how to approach Brown with runners on-base, the A’s can change it up by bringing up top prospect Carlos Gonzalez, who will give Oakland a completely different look in their line-up. That move may also allow the A’s to bring someone like Brown off of the bench in situations where he is likely to get that challenge pitch with runners on base. 

It is also likely that the A’s will be adding Eric Chavez to the middle of their line-up midway through the season, which should be a boost over the production the team is currently getting from their third basemen. Last season, the A’s fell apart when injuries set-in and starters slumped because they didn’t have much depth at the Triple-A level or on the bench. This year, Oakland will only be forced to stick with a player like Brown for as long as that player is productive and no longer.

I think that this season will give the A’s front office a chance to experiment with all sorts of line-ups and theories. There is very little for the A’s to lose this season, given the expectations going into the year. Consequently, it will be a great time for the team to throw a whole bunch of different things against the wall to see if they will stick. They should feel free to try guys in different spots in the line-up (I liked Barton hitting first) or in different positions on the field. There is no harm in testing whether it is better to have more offense at the expense of outfield defense (as the team is currently experiencing with Jack Cust in left and Frank Thomas at DH) is the right formula for success, or whether putting aggressive hitters like Brown behind patient hitters like Thomas and Barton is the way to maximize the production of those aggressive hitters. Who knows? Maybe the A’s will find a formula that works for them. Worst case scenario is that they fall back out of a pennant race they weren’t expected to compete in.

April is in the books for the A’s, and I must say this was an unexpected opening month for the green & gold. After 29 games, the A’s sit one game behind the rival Angels in the AL West at 17-12. More importantly, the A’s series record is 6-2-1. With injuries to Rich Harden, Eric Chavez, Travis Buck, and The Duke, Oakland could be in much worse position. But the young bucks have carried the team to their hottest start since, well, before 2004 at least. Young bucks like Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Kurt Suzuki, and more have stepped up their game to lead Oakland to a hot start. Hopefully they can continue to come together and grow as a team as the season matures. Some high points of the first month has to be the exceptional production of the pitching staff. Hats off to Curt Young who has his boys leading the majors with a nasty 3.22 ERA. And with the team batting average at a dismal .250, the pitching staff appears to be the saving grace for Oakland. Let’s go with some bullet points:

• Kurt Suzuki is my offensive MVP of April. Despite cooling off lately and a lack of power, Kurt has really been consistent at the plate hitting .289 (2nd on team) with a .367 OBP (4th on team). Sure, his stats are not superb, but for a team that lacks power he is getting on base and scoring runs (14 runs, 4th on team). Not only that, Kurt has become a viable option at the lead-off spot with the slow start and injury to Travis Buck.
• Santiago Casilla gets my vote for April MVP of the pitching staff (I know, it’s early to be handing out such titles, but whatever). Casilla was straight lights-out in April, pitching 13 1/3 innings of shutout baseball with a wicked 18-2 SO-to-BB ratio. If he continues this through the first-half of the season he is my candidate to represent Oakland in the All-Star game.
• Jack Cust’s .176 AVG, 1 HR, and 27 K’s makes me cringe.
• Jack Hannahan and Donnie Murphy’s combined hitting stats are; .220 AVG, 4 HR, 14 RBI. I would have to think Eric Chavez would hit for a better average, but the power numbers aren’t bad.
• Bobby Crosby is healthy!
• Joe Blanton has been a work-horse, but still lacks “ace of the staff” stuff. His 4.07 ERA is high, and he is getting shelled by right-handed batters (4.76 ERA, 3 HR).
• Emil Brown is tied for third in the majors with 25 RBI. Who knew? That’s on pace for a 150 RBI season.

Well, that’s a wrap for April. The A’s start May off tonight with the last game of a their 4-game series against the Anaheim/LA/SoCal…whatever, Angels. A win would split the opening series with the Halos.

1) atomopawn suggests that the A’s move Justin Duchscherer back to the bullpen as a way to make room for Harden and keep Smith in the rotation. This is an interesting solution and one that could be applied to Chad Gaudin, as well, given that both Duke and Gaudin have spent significant time in the A’s bullpen in the past. I don’t think the A’s will go in that direction, however. For one, the A’s bullpen doesn’t really need the help right now. As Ryan McGrady discusses over on OaklandClubhouse.com, the A’s bullpen is currently one of the best in the business. Not only is the current A’s bullpen very good, but it is also deep. Keith Foulke is likely to return to active duty next week, meaning that the A’s might be forced to make a “Greg Smith-like decision” about either Joey Devine or Dallas Braden, both of whom have been pitching very well as of late. In addition, the A’s still have Lenny DiNardo in Triple-A Sacramento. He is likely to be recalled fairly soon, as he threw six shut-out innings yesterday for Sacramento. Behind them stand hard-throwers Jerry Blevins and Jeff Gray and submariners Brad Ziegler and Jay Marshall, with 2007 draft pick Andrew Carignan (he of the 97 MPH fastball) quickly moving up the ranks, as well). Secondly, both Duke and Gaudin were moved into the rotation for good reasons. As Jeremy states in his comment, Duke was moved into the rotation in part because the A’s think it will keep him healthier in the long-run. That remains to be seen given that Duke has already missed time with injury, but I think it is an experiment that the A’s want to see through at least half of the season. In Gaudin’s case, it is more a talent evaluation. He has one of the best arms (arguably the best, besides Harden) on the A’s staff and the stuff to be an above-average ML starter. Given that, it would be a waste to use him in relief, where the A’s would get half as many innings from him at the end of the year.

2) A six-man rotation was advocated by a few commenters, including Jeremy, Ricardo and Paul. It is an interesting idea. As Jeremy points out, six-man rotations are usually suggested for teams without much starting pitching talent. In the A’s case, it would be because of too much pitching talent. The Angels might be another team that could consider this style of rotation, especially if Nick Adenhardt impresses in his audition before John Lackey’s return. The pros of six-man rotation are that the A’s would have a way to fit all six guys in and it would limit the innings of the guys in the rotation and possibly make them stronger at the end of the season. The cons would be that the A’s would either have to play one position player or one bullpen arm short if they carried an extra starter and it would likely throw off the rhythm of starters used to a five-day turn. I don’t think the A’s will consider a six-man rotation because of the roster inflexibility it would bring, but I could be wrong.

3) Moving Harden or Dana Eveland to the bullpen was also suggested by a few folks, including JohnnyB, OaklandSi and Jeremy. The Harden-to-the-bullpen call has been ongoing for the past two years and is something that I think the A’s should probably consider. Before the season, I didn’t think moving Harden to the bullpen made sense because it appeared that the A’s were not as deep in the starting rotation as they were in the bullpen. Now it appears that the team is deep in both areas. While above I advocated leaving Gaudin and Duke in the rotation because of the bullpen depth, I think an exception could be made for Harden. While both Gaudin and Duke have proven themselves to be excellent relievers, Harden has the potential to be an elite reliever thanks to his array of pitches and high-90s fastball. He could give the A’s a weapon in the bullpen that would equal Joba Chamberlain in NY or K-Rod in Anaheim back in the Troy Percival days. It may also be the A’s best chance of keeping Harden healthy. However, at this point, I don’t think the A’s will be moving Harden to the bullpen full-time. It seems to me that they would have already done that if that was their plan. He is making two rehab starts, which would indicate that that is where they see Harden fitting in with the team. I don’t think that the A’s need to move Eveland to the bullpen. The observations about the A’s not overworking him are good ones, but there are other ways for Oakland to preserve Eveland’s arm as the season goes on. They can skip his turn in the rotation here and there when there is an off-day in the schedule or in September when the A’s can bring up more starters as the rosters expand to 40. The A’s need to evaluate whether Eveland is a member of their long-term rotation, so they need to stick with him for awhile to give themselves a fair chance to make that evaluation.

4) Others suggested that the A’s clear the logjam by making a trade. OaklandSi mentions Atlanta as a possible trade partner, and given John Smoltz’s injury and the age of that rotation, the Braves should certainly be in the market for a starter. Joe Blanton and Harden would be the most likely candidates for the A’s to move. A trade could certainly happen, but I believe it will only happen if the A’s get a deal of their liking and not because the A’s want to create space on their own roster. Teams around the league continue to place a lower value on Blanton than the A’s do, so until that changes, he is likely to stay put. Harden will need to prove that he can stay healthy for more than a month before he will have any trade value for Oakland.

5) JohnnyB asks how long the A’s can carry two DHs and who Oakland will send down when Travis Buck returns (likely in a week to 10 days). Both are very good questions. I think that as long as Mike Sweeney can still play first base every five days or so, the A’s will continue to carry him. They like the look of their new, deep bench and the idea of a slugger like Sweeney being available off of the bench in a pinch. That only works, however, if Sweeney can play in the field. If his knee limits his ability to play first base at all, I don’t think the A’s will hesitate to move him to the DL or release him. As for who will go down when Buck returns, I think that is still very much an open question. The A’s like the idea of Rajai Davis’ speed coming off of the bench and certainly having him and Chris Denorfia available as late-game defensive replacements has given manager Bob Geren a lot of weapons in the closing innings of ballgames. My gut feeling (and this is a guess) is that the decision surrounding who to send down will be between Denorfia and Davis. Both offer similar skill-sets (fast players who can play all three defensive positions and who hit right-handed). Denorfia is a better hitter than Davis, but Davis is faster and a bigger threat to steal. I’m guessing that whoever is playing better of the two at the time of Buck’s return will stick and the other will head to Sacramento. There is a small chance Ryan Sweeney could be sent down, but I think, like with Eveland, the A’s are using this season to evaluate whether Ryan Sweeney is going to be a long-term member of the A’s outfield. I believe they will give him a little more leeway when it comes to playing through struggles to see what they have in him.

As of today, Smith is currently sitting ninth in the AL in ERA (2.73) and seventh in the AL in WHIP (1.06). He is holding AL batters to a .209 BA and he has averaged more than six innings a start in five outings. He also leads the AL in pick-offs. Assuming that Smith continues to pitch well during his next turn through the rotation, the A’s could be forced to send down one of the AL’s top pitchers thus far this season to make room for Harden.

It is an interesting predicament for Oakland to have. In terms of pure stuff, there is no question that Rich Harden is vastly superior to Greg Smith. In fact, in terms of pure stuff, Harden is probably vastly superior to all but maybe two or three pitchers in all of baseball. However, from a results perspective, it is going to be hard for Harden to match what Smith has done for the A’s thus far this season. In a best case scenario, Harden gives the A’s more than six innings a start and an ERA under 3.00, which is what Smith is already providing. In other words, as good as Harden is, he likely isn’t going to give the A’s much more production than what they are already receiving from Smith.

From a development perspective, sending Smith down to the minor leagues when he is pitching so well in the majors could be detrimental. There isn’t much that Smith has done wrong at the major league level thus far (he even tackled his first inning jitters well last night, which had been his biggest bugaboo to date), so there won’t be a lot he will be asked to work on in Triple-A. Asking a player simply to maintain what he has been doing in the big leagues can be risky. Smith is a tough competitor and a team player, but it will be hard for him to maintain that same level of excitement about pitching in Triple-A after having so much success at the big league level. It is just human nature.

Of course, there is also the question about whether Harden can even stay in the rotation for long once he returns. He barely made it through two starts earlier this year before going down with an injury. With the way the A’s rotation has been pitching, is it worth disrupting that rhythm for a player who may only join the rotation for a short period of time?

This is a difficult question and one that I don’t really have a good answer for. I am one of Rich Harden’s biggest fans. He is an electric pitcher to watch and someone who I still believe will one day win the AL Cy Young award. Given that the A’s have to make a decision about whether to pick-up Harden’s option at the end of this season, it probably makes sense for the A’s to run him out there as much as possible early this year to try to gauge what they have in Harden. Maybe if he stays healthy for a month or so, the A’s will be able to interest another team in trading for Harden.

Having too much pitching is never a bad problem to have, however. Hopefully the A’s can figure out a way to maximize their assets in a way that will both allow the team to continue to win and give Greg Smith the chance to continue to blossom into a solid major league starter.

Oakland picked up another series-win and is really starting to exceed expectations set on them by most analysts, as well as fans. I don’t think anyone in the baseball world thought Oakland would be atop the AL West with an American League best 16-10 record. The pitching staff continues to perform at a high-level and the while the offensive statistics are mediocre, the A’s are getting the timely hits to win ballgames.

Hot Bat:  Yes, it’s that time again. The Hot Bat from last week goes to the veteran Mike Sweeney. If I recall, this is the second time I have given him the award, and well-deserved. In 13 at-bats, Sweeney hit a sultry .462 with 2 homers and 0 K’s. Not only that, he has 13 total bases in those 13 AB’s giving him a .500 OBP for the week. With the addition of Big Hurt, Sweeney may see less less time at DH. But as long as he can produce like last week in his few chances, the A’s should win a lot of games. Play the hot bat, right?

Oakland will look to hold on to their AL West lead this week when they travel to the Anaheim/Los Angeles area to take on the Angels in the first match up of 2008 for the California rivals. Pay starts tomorrow at 7:05 pm as Chad Gaudin takes the mound against Jon Garland.

LET’S GO OAKLAND!

It remains to be seen whether Thomas has anything left, but I think this is a move worth the risk. At worst, Thomas remains cold and the A’s let him go much like Toronto did, losing only a few thousand dollars in the process (unlike the Blue Jays, who are on the hook for millions for Thomas). At best, Thomas gives the A’s the intimidating presence in the line-up that the team has been missing, well, since Thomas left after the 2006 season.

I think this move will also help Jack Cust. Cust looked like he was pressing to me at the start of the year, swinging at bad pitches early in the count and grounding out a lot to second. Perhaps Cust read too many clippings about how he was going to break strike-out records or he was trying to hit 30 homers in April. Whatever it was, he seemed out of sorts at the start of the year. Lately, he has been taking his walks and, while not hitting homers, has been much more productive. Cust is a great fastball hitter and if Thomas is hitting behind him, he may see a lot more fastballs from pitchers not eager to face Thomas with runners on-base.

To make room for Thomas, the A’s have moved Travis Buck to the 15-day DL and Eric Chavez to the 60-day DL. I think moving Buck to the 15-day DL is a good move. He may only need a few more days to get his shins right, but by moving him to the disabled list, the A’s can send Buck to Triple-A on a rehab assignment. Having Buck work out of his slump in a few games with Sacramento under the auspices of a rehab assignment is probably better than demoting him for a short stint. Buck is going to be an important part of the A’s future and the team needs to get him back on-track. Hopefully a little time off and a few games of Triple-A pitching will get his bat going again.

I’m not sure what the A’s will do with Mike Sweeney. He, too, has been hobbled by injuries and despite his good game last night, still looked like he was struggling with his running. Perhaps the A’s can DL him with that sore knee, which would give the team some time to see if Thomas can work out of his early season slump. Sweeney’s knee doesn’t make him much of an option at first base, so the A’s likely can’t carry both Thomas and Sweeney as DHs for an extended period of time.  We’ll probably see a move on Saturday when Justin Duchscherer returns from his DL stint.

While this is going on, the rumors that the A’s are close to signing Frank Thomas continue to intensify. Yahoo! Sports briefly had a story posted by Tim Brown stating that the A’s were definitely going to sign Thomas. The story has been pulled, but Buster Olney of ESPN claims that the A’s are talking to Thomas’ agents about a return.

What these moves all mean in the larger scheme of things remains to be seen. For the moment, the Davis acquisition appears to have to do with the ongoing Travis Buck injury situation and the need for the A’s to add a little speed and outfield defense off of the bench. It isn’t clear whether Davis is here for the long-haul, or whether he will be a temporary addition, similar to Ryan Langerhans last season.

The Thomas talks may indicate that Mike Sweeney’s ailing knee and lack of power thus far this season have convinced the A’s that he isn’t the long-term answer this season. It seems likely that a Thomas signing would come at the expense of Sweeney, although Sweeney could remain with the team if the A’s decide to DL him rather than release him. That might be the best solution, as it would give Oakland a chance to audition Thomas while still holding onto Sweeney as an option if Thomas doesn’t regain his swing by mid-May.

I have also come to the realization that I am wasting too much time analyzing every A’s move this season to see whether it is a signal that the team is trying to win or still rebuilding. It is pretty clear that the A’s are always going to do what they can to win ballgames at the major-league level. They aren’t going to mortgage the farm to do it in a year that is about development, but if there is a baseball move that makes sense for the big league team and doesn’t impact the development of the younger players, then the A’s will make that move regardless of their long-term outlook. Frankly, I’m glad to see it. At the very least, this season has already produced some intriguing storylines and it looks as though the team will provide some interesting theater throughout the summer. As Terrell Owens would say, I have my popcorn ready.

To be fair to the guys in green and gold, the weather has probably played some factor in the lack of bombs. There were at least three balls hit in the cold in Cleveland, for instance, that looked like homers off the bat, only to be knocked down by the biting wind. The A’s have also played a lot of games at home in the early going and the Coliseum does diminish homer totals somewhat, especially when the weather isn’t warm. That being said, the A’s opponents have been playing under the same conditions as Oakland and they have hit nearly double the number of homeruns off of an A’s pitching staff which is arguably better than any that their opponents have faced given that the A’s currently lead the league in team ERA.

The A’s struggle to hit homeruns has coincided with the release of former A’s slugger Frank Thomas from Toronto. Thomas was let-go by the Blue Jays over the weekend after he was informed that he wouldn’t be playing everyday and asked for his release. Thomas is off to a poor start to the season (.167 BA and a .333 SLG), but that has been par-for-the-course for Thomas over the past few seasons. Some observers claim that Thomas is washed up, although there were similar rumblings about Big Frank when he got off to a slow start with Oakland in 2006. We all know what happened starting in June that season.

There are some obvious benefits to bringing Frank Thomas on-board. One, he is one of the best power hitters in the history of the game and he has hit 65 homers over the past two seasons. Two, he is a run-producer, having driven-in 114 in 2006 and 95 in 2007. Three, he is an on-base machine, having walked exactly 81 times in each of the past two seasons. Four, he is a box-office draw. The fans loved him when he was here in 2006 and he could bring some positive attention to an A’s team that has flown under-the-radar thus far this season.

There are, however, a number of downsides to bringing Thomas on-board. One, he is currently struggling. You have to believe strongly that Thomas’ early-season struggles are nothing but his normal slow start and ignore the scouts that say he is cheating to get around on a fastball. Two, he can’t play in the field and is a liability on the bases. Mike Sweeney hasn’t been a big offensive force for the A’s thus far this year, but at least he can play first base if the team needs him to and he can score from second on a single. Three, Frank can get cranky if things don’t go his way. The A’s are still looking to build for the future and if Frank is pouting in the clubhouse because he isn’t playing, it could negatively affect the development of the young core of the team. Four, he is an injury risk. Thomas has been remarkably healthy since the start of 2006, but he is still an injury waiting to happen. The A’s are already starting to pile onto their DL like last year. They probably don’t need another injury risk added to the pot.

All that said, it is hard not to want Thomas on the team. His 2006 campaign was one of the most enjoyable to watch of any A’s player in recent memory. I’m not convinced that he would be a great fit for the A’s right now given the make-up of the club (i.e. already carrying two DH-types in Jack Cust and Mike Sweeney and another player (Daric Barton) who can only play first base), but if the A’s feel that Thomas still has something left, it could be worth the risk. At worst, the A’s could always cut Thomas loose if it becomes clear he has nothing left.

GAME 1: Felix Hernandez (1-0, 1.66) v. Joe Blanton (1-2, 4.15)

Felix Hernandez looks to continue his dominance of the A’s in the first game of the series. In 2007, King Felix went 4-0 against Oakland with a nasty 1.29 ERA. I would assume that left-handed hitters Jack Cust and Ryan Sweeney will be in the A’s lineup to go against the powerful right-hander. Joe Blanton has pitched well in ‘08 but only has a 1-2 record to show for it. Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent in ‘08, I see no reason that if Blanton continues to pitch like he has he can tame the M’s bats. The A’s will make Hernandez throw a lot pitches and get him out by the 6th inning and then beat up on the Mariners AL low 6.45 relief ERA to pull out the win.

GAME 2: Carlos Silva(2-0, 3.27) v. Lenny DiNardo (1-0, 6.75)

Silva and DiNardo will face off due to the Bedard and Harden injuries in game two on Thursday night. Silva gave up 11 hits but only 3 runs in his last start against Anaheim. The A’s lefties should again be in the lineup looking to get at Silva. The A’s have struggled at times in the past when Silva pitched for Minnesota and if DiNardo struggles this could very well turn into a bullpen game in which I give the A’s the advantage. I sayA’s get to Silva early and hold the lead all game for a 7-4 win.

LETS GO O-A-K-L-A-N-D!!